ATL: Invest 91L - Discussion

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Re: ATL: Invest 91L - Discussion

#101 Postby jaguars_22 » Fri Jun 15, 2018 7:18 am

What’s the euro showing for rainfall? Map
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Re: ATL: Invest 91L - Discussion

#102 Postby srainhoutx » Fri Jun 15, 2018 8:08 am

Friday morning briefing from Jeff:

Locally heavy rainfall will be possible Sunday-Tuesday over much of SE TX.

Tropical wave over the southern Gulf of Mexico with move NW and into the TX coast late Saturday into Sunday along with a large plume of deep tropical moisture. PWS values of 1.7-1.9 inches today will surge to 2.3-2.6 inches on Sunday indicating a very moist air mass will be in place. Expect scattered storms both Friday and Saturday will become numerous on Sunday and Monday. Waves of heavy rainfall will progress inland from the Gulf of Mexico Sunday and Monday, but where any training may develop will determine where the highest rainfall amounts will be found. Expect rainfall to continue into Tuesday as the tropical wave axis slowly moves into central TX.

Rainfall Amounts:
Widespread rainfall amounts of 3-5 inches look possible mainly along and south of I-10 with amounts of 1-3 inches NW of a line from Hempstead to Lake Livingston. Isolated higher totals are almost certain and can be as high as 8-10 inches, but where these higher totals occur is impossible to determine at this range. Models have been slowly converging on the idea of most of the rainfall occurring near the coast and just inland and this is certainly a good possibility in such air masses which like to focus their rainfalls near the coast or offshore and inland areas sometimes do not see much activity.

Greatest period for heavy rainfall appears to be Sunday and Monday with the formation of a 20-30kt level low jet which will help to feed sustained convection over the area. Low level jet would also help to focus activity into bands or lines which would increase the training potential…but storm motions of 15-20mph may negate sustained heavy rainfall over one certain area for a period of time.

Hourly rainfall rates on Sunday and Monday could easily exceed 2-3 inches and result in rapid street flooding and rises on area creeks and bayous.

As grounds saturate, greater amounts of run-off will be generated and rises on creeks and bayous will become increasing fast.

Marine:
Long fetch ESE/SE winds of 20-30kts will arrive into the waters late Saturday and continue into Monday. Seas will build into the 5-7 foot range on Saturday and 9-11 feet on Sunday with numerous showers, thunderstorms, and squalls. Increasing long period swells support wave and tidal run-up along the Gulf facing beaches with total water levels likely in the 2.5-3.5 feet range by Sunday.


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Re: ATL: Invest 91L - Discussion

#103 Postby wxman57 » Fri Jun 15, 2018 8:15 am

Invest 91L is no more. NHC has dropped it. Development chances zero. Increasing showers/thunderstorms likely for Texas and Louisiana each day through the middle of next week (at least) as moisture streams inland off the Gulf. Rain, but no Harvey.
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Re: ATL: Invest 91L - Discussion

#104 Postby Ntxw » Fri Jun 15, 2018 8:26 am

Texas is in a drought so the rainfall is most welcome. Actually any rain during the summer in Texas is welcome that is not from a hurricane or slow moving tropical storm. This never really had a good chance, it's not easy getting a storm going with organized, strong systems on the EPAC side of the Mexican coast at the same time.
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Re: ATL: Invest 91L - Discussion

#105 Postby Weather150 » Fri Jun 15, 2018 8:35 am

Bye-bye 91L! Never really had any chance with the generally unfavorable conditions in its way and lack of model support. Going to be one decent rain-maker for Texas this weekend.
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Re: ATL: Invest 91L - Discussion

#106 Postby jaguars_22 » Fri Jun 15, 2018 9:11 am

Was this huge blowup in the models?? It does look better than it ever has...
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Re: ATL: Invest 91L - Discussion

#107 Postby wxman57 » Fri Jun 15, 2018 9:31 am

jaguars_22 wrote:Was this huge blowup in the models?? It does look better than it ever has...


That's associated with another tropical wave which moved into the western Caribbean overnight. 91L is in the SW Gulf now. Neither will develop, but the second wave means even more moisture streaming NW toward the NW Gulf coast Sunday-Wednesday.
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Re: ATL: Invest 91L - Discussion

#108 Postby jaguars_22 » Fri Jun 15, 2018 9:33 am

Thanks Wxman57 :) The more the merrier!! Did the rain amounts increase for central coast of texas?
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Re: ATL: Invest 91L - Discussion

#109 Postby tolakram » Fri Jun 15, 2018 1:27 pm

The thread for the NW Caribbean disturbance is here: viewtopic.php?f=31&t=119635
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