WPAC: GAEMI - Post-Tropical

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WPAC: GAEMI - Post-Tropical

#1 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 13, 2018 2:26 pm

Location: 21.5°N 115.0°E
Maximum Winds: 15 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: N/A

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 95W

#2 Postby NotoSans » Wed Jun 13, 2018 2:45 pm

JMA (surprisingly) expects this to become a TS within 24 hours.
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WPAC: Tropical Depression 95W

#3 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 13, 2018 2:50 pm

TD
Issued at 19:30 UTC, 13 June 2018

<Analysis at 18 UTC, 13 June>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N21°25' (21.4°)
E117°50' (117.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NE Slow
Central pressure 996 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 15 m/s (30 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23 m/s (45 kt)

<Forecast for 18 UTC, 14 June>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N22°25' (22.4°)
E119°00' (119.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NE Slow
Central pressure 992 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 95W

#4 Postby wxman57 » Wed Jun 13, 2018 3:23 pm

Note that JMA has identified a low just SW of Taiwan as a depression (95W). JTWC just issued an advisory on another low EAST of Taiwan (no invest). Two different lows. That map at the top of the thread is not the correct position. It's about 180 miles east of there. Really not much to it at all. Oh, and JTWC predicts the low east of Taiwan to become extratropical in 9 hours. What a mess!
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 95W

#5 Postby Twisted-core » Wed Jun 13, 2018 10:03 pm

WTPQ30 RJTD 140000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 2 FOR TD LOCATED AT 21.8N 118.6E
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
A TD IS LOCATED AT 21.8N, 118.6E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS POOR BECAUSE THE CSC IS OBSCURE. THE SYSTEM
IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. HOWEVER, THE LIMITED
FIRMNESS OF ITS STRUCTURE HAS CAUSED IT TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY
OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED
ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EASTWARD. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SEPARATION
OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC, INDICATING
INTERFERENCE FROM INTENSIFICATION.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL FT24. THE JMA TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM
WILL BE UPGRADED TO TS INTENSITY BY FT24. THE JMA INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 95W

#6 Postby euro6208 » Wed Jun 13, 2018 10:31 pm

Pretty long detailed discussion. Very complex setup in the region.

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
20.9N 115.1E, APPROXIMATELY 95 NM SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FLARING CENTRAL CONVECTION
WITH FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A COVERED BROAD LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION. A 131831Z GMI MICROWAVE IMAGE REFLECTS THE BROAD AREA
OF TURNING AND MULTIPLE CENTERS OF DEEP CONVECTION, LENDING LOW
CONFIDENCE TO THE POSITION. A 131400Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED 20-25 KT
WINDS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH WESTERLY MONSOON
SURGE, AND 10-15 KT WINDS IN THE NORTHERN SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM
CLOSER TO LAND. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS GOOD EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW FROM 95W SUPPORTING MULTIPLE AREAS OF DEEP CONVECTION, AS
POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS PREVENTED BY THE MIDLATITUDE JET SITTING
DIRECTLY TO THE NORTH. 95W IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE
(10-20 KT) WIND SHEAR. 95W IS SITUATED ON THE BORDER OF THE BAIU
FRONT, A CLIMATOLOGICAL FEATURE IN THIS REGION AT THIS TIME OF YEAR,
AND THUS IS UNDER A MILD TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ALREADY. A 132000Z
AMSU RADIAL CROSS-SECTION SHOWS A WEAK WARM CORE ANOMALY ALOFT,
INDICATING A BORDERLINE TROPICAL SYSTEM. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW 95W
MOVING TO THE EAST TO NORTHEAST, WITH STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY
MONSOONAL FLOW WRAPPING UP INTO A MORE COHERENT SYSTEM IN THE NEXT 1-
2 DAYS. HOWEVER, 95W HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SUBTROPICAL OR
EXTRATROPICAL DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
BAROCLINIC ZONE, AND A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY PASSING
THROUGH THE REGION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 996 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 95W

#7 Postby euro6208 » Thu Jun 14, 2018 1:47 am

Image

WTPN21 PGTW 140430
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
145 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 21.0N 116.8E TO 24.2N 123.7E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 140000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 21.2N 117.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 21.1N 117.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 117.8E, APPROXIMATELY
212 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ASSOCIATED
WITH 95W HAS RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATED. THIS CONSOLIDATION IS BACKED UP BY
A 140147Z AMSU 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION AND
FORMATIVE BANDING TO THE SOUTH OF THE LLCC. 95W HAD BEEN EXHIBITING
SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT TRACKED ALONG THE BAIU FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WHICH HAS SET UP ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER, THE FLORIDA
STATE UNIVERSITY CYCLONE PHASE PRODUCT INDICATES THAT 95W IS NOW
TRANSITIONING TO A WARM CORE SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS
FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5 TO 10 KNOTS) ALONG WITH GOOD
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29 TO 30
DEGREES CELSIUS). DYNAMIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 95W WILL
CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE HAS IT TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD NEAR THE BAIU
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18
TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
150430Z.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 08W

#8 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Thu Jun 14, 2018 5:00 am

TD 08W...

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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 08W

#9 Postby euro6208 » Thu Jun 14, 2018 6:33 am

Okinawa gets a double wammy.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 08W

#10 Postby euro6208 » Thu Jun 14, 2018 6:36 am

WDPN32 PGTW 140900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W WARNING
NR 01//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 08W (EIGHT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 222 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP AND PERSISTENT CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH LIMITED CONVECTION NORTH OF THE LLCC.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A 140600Z HIMAWARI VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T1.0 (25 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND T1.5 (25 KNOTS) FROM RJTD.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT TD 08W IS EXPERIENCING FAVORABLE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 TO 15 KNOTS) AND MODERATE OUTFLOW. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALSO REMAIN FAVORABLE (29 TO 30 DEGREES
CELSIUS). TD 08W IS SHOWING SIGNS OF BEING A VERY WEAK WARM CORE
SYSTEM BASED ON A 140000Z AMSU TEMPERATURE ANOMALY CROSS-SECTION. TD
08W IS TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD NEAR THE BAIU FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING AND SETS THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY.
B. TD 08W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE BAIU
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TD 08W WILL MAINTAIN AN INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS
THROUGH TAU 12 AS IT TRACKS ACROSS TAIWAN AS A WEAK WARM CORE SYSTEM.
MARGINAL ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW TD 08W TO REACH AN
INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS BY TAU 24. BY TAU 36, TD 08W WILL INTERACT WITH
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND RAPIDLY TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE BY TAU 48. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT,
THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 08W

#11 Postby euro6208 » Thu Jun 14, 2018 6:48 am

Image
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 08W

#12 Postby euro6208 » Thu Jun 14, 2018 6:50 am

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 14 JUN 2018 Time : 111000 UTC
Lat : 22:31:28 N Lon : 120:09:52 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
1.9 / 995.8mb/ 29.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
1.9 2.3 2.9

Center Temp : -51.4C Cloud Region Temp : -57.5C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.71 ARC in LT GRAY

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.2T/hour
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : N/A
- Environmental MSLP : 1000mb

Satellite Name : HIM-8
Satellite Viewing Angle : 35.1 degrees

****************************************************
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 08W

#13 Postby euro6208 » Thu Jun 14, 2018 7:19 am

Image
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 08W

#14 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Thu Jun 14, 2018 8:57 am

Appears to have made landfall over southwestern Taiwan this Thursday night, local time.
A minimum sea-level pressure of 991mb was recorded in Kaohsiung city shortly after 7pm TST.
https://www.cwb.gov.tw/V7e/observe/real/46744.htm

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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 08W

#15 Postby mrbagyo » Thu Jun 14, 2018 11:02 am

Image

I envy the radar system of Taiwan. Their webpage is also more user friendly.
I can't save the data from the radars of the Philippines - can't archive it. It sucks. I also don't like the colors of the echo. The webpage is also cumbersome and always outdated. Argg. :(
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 08W

#16 Postby euro6208 » Thu Jun 14, 2018 5:49 pm

Image

WDPN32 PGTW 142100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W WARNING
NR 03//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W (EIGHT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 172 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
(EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DIMINISHING DEEP CONVECTION AND
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A CLOUD-COVERED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON INFLOW AND BANDING FEATURES IN THE
EIR LOOP, AND LIES TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE 18Z PGTW FIX AND SLIGHTLY
BEHIND THE 18Z RJTD FIX. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL
POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS IS BASED ON A 141259Z
ASCAT PASS REVEALING BROAD AREAS OF 25 AND 35 KT WIND BARBS AND AN
ELONGATED SURFACE CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KTS IS
HEDGED ABOVE RJTD AND PGTW CURRENT INTENSITY FIXES OF T1.5 (25 KTS).
THE BROADER AREA OF 25-30 KT WINDS, AS WELL AS DEEP CONVECTION
DEPICTED IN A 141756Z ATMS MICROWAVE IMAGE, IS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
CIRCULATION, AND RELATED TO THE CLIMATOLOGICAL SOUTHWESTERLY MONSOON
SURGE IN THE AREA. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT POLEWARD
OUTFLOW IS BEING ENHANCED BY THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY JET
IMMEDIATELY TO THE NORTH OF TD 08W. TD 08W IS EXPERIENCING FAVORABLE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5 TO 10 KNOTS) AND WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (29-30 DEGREES C). HOWEVER, 08W IS LOCATED JUST
OFFSHORE OF TAIWAN, AND THE OTHERWISE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IS BEING
COUNTERACTED BY LAND INTERACTION. A 141100Z AMSU TEMPERATURE ANOMALY
CROSS-SECTION SHOWS THAT TD 08W HAS MAINTAINED WEAK WARM CORE
CHARACTERISTICS. TD 08W IS TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD NEAR THE BAIU
FRONTAL BOUNDARY, AND HAS SLOWED ITS FORWARD MOTION NOTICEABLY IN
THE LAST 6 HOURS DUE TO LAND
INTERACTION WITH TAIWAN.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TD 08W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE BAIU
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. TD 08W WILL
MAINTAIN ITS 30 KT INTENSITY AS IT TRACKS OVER TAIWAN. BY TAU 24, TD
08W WILL BE NORTH OF TAIWAN, UNDER THE MIDLATITUDE JET, AND WILL
INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION. TD 08W WILL CONTINUE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION THROUGH TAU
36 WHILE LIKELY MAINTAINING INTENSITY BUT INCREASING THE EXPANSE OF
ITS WIND FIELD. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WILL BE COMPLETE BY TAU 48
AS 08W ACCELERATES TO THE NORTHEAST UNDER STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND ENCOUNTERS COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK IS HEDGED BEHIND AND SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF CONSENSUS, AS THE ECMF
MODEL TRACKER DEPICTS SLOWER FORWARD MOTION THAN THE OTHER TRACKERS,
AND MOVES 08W DUE EASTERLY AND SLOWLY ACROSS TAIWAN BEFORE CURVING
TO THE NORTHEAST. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 08W

#17 Postby NotoSans » Thu Jun 14, 2018 8:39 pm

JMA upgrades to TS Gaemi.
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WPAC: GAEMI - TROPICAL STORM

#18 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 14, 2018 9:05 pm

JMA upgrades.

TS 1806 (Gaemi)
Issued at 01:10 UTC, 15 June 2018

<Analysis at 00 UTC, 15 June>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N22°50' (22.8°)
E120°10' (120.2°)
Direction and speed of movement Almost stationary
Central pressure 992 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area SE 280 km (150 NM)
NW 170 km (90 NM)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 15 June>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N25°05' (25.1°)
E124°00' (124.0°)
Direction and speed of movement ENE 40 km/h (21 kt)
Central pressure 992 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 16 June>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N26°50' (26.8°)
E127°10' (127.2°)
Direction and speed of movement ENE 30 km/h (17 kt)
Central pressure 992 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 150 km (80 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 17 June>
Intensity -
LOW
Center position of probability circle N28°55' (28.9°)
E131°10' (131.2°)
Direction and speed of movement ENE 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 992 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)
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Re: WPAC: GAEMI - Tropical Storm

#19 Postby euro6208 » Thu Jun 14, 2018 9:56 pm

Image

WDPN32 PGTW 150300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W WARNING
NR 04//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W (GAEMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 147 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT
05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS TIGHTLY WRAPPING DEEP CONVECTION
AROUND THE LLCC OVER TAIWAN, WITH A SEPARATE, NORTHWARD TRAINING
LINE OF CONVECTION TO THE EAST ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON TURNING IN THE MSI LOOP, AND LIES
BETWEEN THE 00Z PGTW FIX AND RJTD FIX, SLIGHTLY INLAND OVER TAIWAN.
THE TAIWAN RADAR LOOP INDICATES THAT TD GAEMI MADE LANDFALL ON THE
WESTERN COAST OF TAIWAN AROUND 150000 TO 150100Z. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS AT 30 KTS, IN AGREEMENT WITH THE RJTD FIX CURRENT
INTENSITY OF T2.0 (30 KTS). WHILE SHIP OBSERVATIONS AND THE LAN YU
STATION (22N 121.6E) REPORT OBSERVATIONS OF 35 AND 39 KT SUSTAINED
WINDS OVER 70NM TO THE SOUTHEAST, THESE SITES ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE SOUTHWESTERLY MONSOON SURGE IN THE AREA AND ARE NOT CONSIDERED
TO BE REPRESENTATIVE OF TD GAEMI.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT
THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY JET IMMEDIATELY TO THE NORTH OF TD GAEMI IS
ENHANCING POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TD 08W IS EXPERIENCING FAVORABLE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5 TO 10 KNOTS). HOWEVER, LAND INTERACTION WITH
THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF TAIWAN IS PREVENTING INTENSIFICATION IN
AN OTHERWISE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. A 142000Z AMSU TEMPERATURE
ANOMALY CROSS-SECTION REVEALS THAT THE WARM CORE ANOMALY IS
DIMINISHING, SUGGESTING THAT TD GAEMI IS BEGINNING TO LOSE ITS
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.
TD 08W IS TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD OVER
TAIWAN NEAR THE BAIU FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TD GAEMI WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE BAIU
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. TD GAEMI WILL
MAINTAIN ITS 30 KT INTENSITY AS IT TRACKS OVER TAIWAN. BY TAU 24, TD
GAEMI WILL BE EAST OF TAIWAN AND FURTHER NORTH, UNDER THE
MIDLATITUDE JET, AND WILL INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE,
ENCOUNTER STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOLER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, ACCELERATING ITS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. TD 08W WILL
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY AS IT TRANSITIONS INTO A FULLY
TRANSITIONED COLD CORE SYSTEM WITH AN EXPANSIVE WIND FIELD BY TAU
36. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS HEDGED BEHIND AND SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF
CONSENSUS, AS THE ECMF MODEL TRACKER DEPICTS SLOWER FORWARD MOTION
THAN THE OTHER TRACKERS, AND SHOWS 08W MOVING DUE EASTWARD AND
SLOWLY ACROSS TAIWAN BEFORE CURVING TO THE NORTHEAST. THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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euro6208
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Re: WPAC: GAEMI - Tropical Storm

#20 Postby euro6208 » Thu Jun 14, 2018 10:01 pm

Following on the heels of TS 07W.

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