EPAC: DANIEL - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

Likely conservative due to ASCAT.

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE *
* DANIEL EP052018 06/24/18 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 44 44 44 41 35 30 22 18 DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LAND 40 42 44 44 44 41 35 30 22 18 DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LGEM 40 43 44 43 42 37 32 26 21 18 DIS DIS DIS
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A

SHEAR (KT) 14 12 9 4 3 4 6 6 6 6 8 N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -1 1 1 0 0 3 3 5 7 N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 43 52 53 26 331 275 277 266 249 177 162 N/A N/A
SST (C) 26.7 26.1 25.5 24.7 24.0 23.0 22.5 22.2 22.1 22.6 23.1 N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 130 124 117 109 102 91 86 83 82 88 94 N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.7 -53.8 -54.0 -54.0 -53.7 -53.9 -53.8 -54.0 -53.9 -54.3 N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.0 -0.2 N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 63 61 59 56 52 49 48 48 50 48 40 N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 9 10 10 10 10 10 7 6 4 LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 46 39 39 32 35 37 30 36 37 42 25 N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 30 28 5 7 5 -13 -20 -30 -4 -14 -11 N/A N/A
700-850 TADV -6 -4 -4 -5 -4 -1 -1 1 4 -1 2 N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 962 932 898 879 869 910 1014 1104 1213 1393 1626 N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 16.5 17.3 18.0 18.6 19.2 19.9 20.3 20.5 20.6 20.3 19.8 N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 116.2 116.6 117.0 117.6 118.2 119.4 120.9 122.4 124.0 126.0 128.4 N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 8 10 12 N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 10 CX,CY: -2/ 9
T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 553 (MEAN=550)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.1 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.4

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 8.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2.
PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -14. -17. -19. -21.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -4. -4. -6. -6. -5.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2.
GOES PREDICTORS -0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 4. 4. 1. -5. -10. -18. -22. -27. -31. -35.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 16.5 116.2

** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052018 DANIEL 06/24/18 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 999.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.33 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.60 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.4 0.0 to 106.7 0.00 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.25 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 3.1 62.3 to 0.0 0.95 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -1.9 999.00 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 231.4 735.9 to -82.5 0.62 999.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (15.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (10.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052018 DANIEL 06/24/18 18 UTC ##
## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING

[Kingarabian]

LLC has become exposed to the north of that convection mass:



I'd give it about 18-24 hours to reorganize before it falls off a cliff.

[Yellow Evan]

Nah this is almost done. It's gonna be moving over a sharp SST gradient.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Daniel Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052018
200 PM PDT Sun Jun 24 2018

Daniel continues to generate a curved band of convection near the
center, although the cloud tops have warmed notably during the
past several hours. A recent ASCAT overpass showed maximum winds
of 40 kt in the southeastern quadrant, so the initial intensity has
been increased to that value. The initial and forecast wind radii
have also been revised based on the scatterometer data.

The initial motion is now 340/10. There is again no change in the
track forecast philosophy, as the various dynamical models remain in
good agreement that Daniel will move northward around the east side
of a mid-/upper-level low for the next 12-18 hours, then encounter
the broad Pacific subtropical ridge to its north. This should
result in a northwestward turn on Monday and a generally westward
motion on Tuesday and beyond. The only appreciable change in the
guidance since the last advisory is that the cyclone is forecast to
move a little faster. Thus, the official forecast is mostly an
update of the previous track with a slightly faster forward speed.

Daniel should cross the 26C isotherm in 12 h or less, and the
forecast track takes the system over progressively cooler water.
Thus, the new intensity forecast calls for a slow weakening after
12 h, with the cyclone forecast to weaken to a depression by 36 h,
degenerate to a remnant low by 72 h, and dissipate completely
between 96-120 h. All of these events could occur earlier than
currently forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/2100Z 16.9N 116.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 25/0600Z 18.1N 117.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 25/1800Z 19.2N 118.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 26/0600Z 19.8N 119.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 26/1800Z 20.2N 121.2W 25 KT 30 MPH
72H 27/1800Z 20.5N 124.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 28/1800Z 20.0N 128.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

EP, 05, 2018062500, , BEST, 0, 175N, 1163W, 40, 1003, TS

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Daniel Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052018
800 PM PDT Sun Jun 24 2018

Daniel's convective structure is slowly degrading. Recent IR imagery
indicates that active deep convection is primarily occuring in a
single burst, southwest of the tropical storm's center. The initial
intensity has been held at 40 kt based on an earlier ASCAT overpass
around 1700 UTC, but given the overall degradation of the structure
of the cyclone since that time, it is possible this is generous. The
tropical storm is quickly approaching the 26 deg C isotherm, so it
is likely that Daniel has already reached its peak intensity. All of
the guidance is in good agreement that the cyclone will gradually
spin down over the next couple of days, likely losing all deep
convection within the next 48 h. Essentially no change has been
made to the NHC intensity forecast, which now calls for Daniel to
dissipate by 96 hours.

Several recent microwave overpasses suggest that the center of the
tropical storm is slightly northeast of the previous estimate. As a
result, the official track forecast has been nudged in that
direction for the first 24 hours, but is very similar to the
previous advisory beyond that time. There is otherwise no change in
the reasoning behind the track forecast, and Daniel is still
expected to begin a turn toward the northwest by tomorrow as it
moves along the eastern edge of a weak mid-level low. Once Daniel
becomes a remnant low, it will be steered westward in the low-level
tradewind flow. The new official track forecast remains near the
middle of the track guidance envelope, close to the consensus models
TVCN and HCCA.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0300Z 17.9N 116.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 25/1200Z 18.9N 117.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 26/0000Z 19.7N 118.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 26/1200Z 20.1N 120.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 27/0000Z 20.2N 122.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 28/0000Z 20.1N 126.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

[storminabox]

Definitely not the most impressive system in the world, especially considering the great magnitude in which the prior storms in the EPAC this year have overachieved. Daniel is the only system that the NHC may actually get right in terms of intensity so far this year in the EPAC. I guess the basin needed a storm that would bring it back from cloud 9, but it will likely put on quite a show in the next couple of weeks.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Daniel Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052018
200 AM PDT Mon Jun 25 2018

Cloud tops have been steadily warming since the previous advisory
and the overall amount of convection has also been shrinking.
However, a small mass of convection has persisted near and over the
low-level center, and a 0443Z ASCAT partial pass indicated that the
wind field in the western semicircle hadn't changed since the
previous overpasses just 12 h prior. Therefore, it is assumed that
winds near 40 kt still exists in the unsampled eastern semicircle.
The last UW-CIMSS SATCON estimate at 0225Z was 43 kt. Based on the
apparent lack of any significant low-level structural change noted
in the latest ASCAT data, along with the SATCON estimate, the
intensity is being maintained at 40 kt for this advisory.

The initial motion estimate is 330/09 kt. Daniel is expected to
gradually make a turn toward the northwest within the next 12 h as
the small cyclone moves around the eastern periphery of a mid- to
upper-level low located about 450 nmi to the west-southwest. As
Daniel moves over progressively cooler waters, the weakening cyclone
will become vertically more shallow and be steered westward by the
low-level easterly tradewind flow on days 2-4. The latest model
guidance remains good agreement with this developing track scenario.
As a result, the new NHC track forecast is similar to the previous
advisory track and is close to the consensus models TVCN and HCCA.

The small cyclone is currently located over sea-surface temperatures
(SST) of about 25C, with colder water lying ahead of the system.
Although the vertical wind shear is forecast to be low, steady
weakening and gradual erosion of the central convection is expected
throughout the forecast period due to the colder SSTs and a lack of
instability, especially after 12-18 hours. Daniel is forecast to
weaken to a depression by 24 h, and degenerate into a remnant low
pressure system shortly thereafter. However, given the current small
and relatively weak circulation, faster weakening could occur than
what is currently indicated. The latter scenario is supported by
the ECMWF and UKMET models, which show dissipation by 72 hours.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0900Z 18.8N 116.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 25/1800Z 19.5N 117.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 26/0600Z 20.2N 119.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 26/1800Z 20.4N 121.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 27/0600Z 20.5N 122.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 28/0600Z 20.3N 126.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 29/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Daniel Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052018
800 AM PDT Mon Jun 25 2018

Convection associated with Daniel is gradually diminishing as the
cyclone moves over cooler water, with the remaining convection just
to the west or southwest of the center. The initial intensity is
reduced to 35 kt based on various subjective and objective
satellite intensity estimates. Daniel should continue to weaken
over sea surface temperatures of 23-24C, with the system expected
to drop below tropical storm strength in the next 12 h and to
degenerate to a remnant low by 36 h.

The cyclone is starting its expected left turn with the initial
motion now 315/8. A combination of a mid- to upper-level low to
the west-southwest and a low- to mid-level ridge to the north
should cause Daniel to turn west-northwestward to westward during
the next 36 h, with the westward motion continuing until the
cyclone dissipates. The new track forecast is similar to the
previous forecast and is close to the center of the guidance
envelope through 48 h.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/1500Z 19.0N 117.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 26/0000Z 19.6N 118.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 26/1200Z 20.1N 120.6W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 27/0000Z 20.2N 122.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 27/1200Z 20.3N 124.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 28/1200Z 20.0N 128.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

Tropical Depression Daniel Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052018
200 PM PDT Mon Jun 25 2018

Convection associated with Daniel continues to diminish as the
cyclone moves over cooler water, and most satellite intensity
estimates have dropped below tropical-storm strength. Thus, Daniel
is downgraded to a tropical depression. The system should continue
to weaken over sea surface temperatures near 23C, and it is forecast
to degenerate into a remnant low by 24 h and to dissipate completely
between 48-72 h.

The initial motion is now 305/7. Daniel should turn more westward
during the next 24 h as low-level easterly flow on the south side
of the subtropical ridge becomes the main steering mechanism, and
this motion should continue through dissipation. The new track
forecast is similar to the previous forecast and it is a little
north of the center of the guidance envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/2100Z 19.4N 118.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 26/0600Z 19.8N 119.4W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 26/1800Z 20.0N 121.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 27/0600Z 20.1N 123.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 27/1800Z 20.0N 125.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

Tropical Depression Daniel Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052018
800 PM PDT Mon Jun 25 2018

The depression consists of a tight swirl of low clouds with a small
patch of deep convection well to the south of the center. The
initial intensity is kept at 30 kt in this advisory based on
continuity. However, given that the system is over cold waters and
devoid of deep convection, the NHC forecast calls for Daniel to
become a remnant low on Tuesday.

The shallow cyclone is moving toward the west-northwest or 285
degrees at 8 kt embedded within the easterly trade winds. Daniel or
its remnants should move toward the west until dissipation in a day
or so. Guidance is very consistent with this solution.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0300Z 19.7N 118.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 26/1200Z 20.0N 120.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 27/0000Z 20.2N 122.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 27/1200Z 20.0N 124.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila

[cycloneye]

Tropical Depression Daniel Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052018
200 AM PDT Tue Jun 26 2018

The last bit of convection occurred around 0600 UTC, consisting of
cloud tops to -30C to -35C. This allowed TAFB to provide a Dvorak
satellite current intensity (CI) estimate of 30 kt. This was enough
to still classify Daniel as a tropical depression. Since that time,
however, the convection has eroded significantly and cloud tops have
warmed to only around -15C. Weakening is expected during the next
couple of days as the small cyclone moves over SSTs less than 24C
and also ingests more stable, cold-air stratocumulus clouds.
Degeneration into a remnant low pressure is expected later this
morning, with dissipation is forecast by 48 hours. The next advisory
could easily be the last forecast required for this system.

The shallow cyclone is moving west-northwestward at 7-8 kt. Now that
Daniel has become embedded within the low-level easterly trade wind
flow, the cyclone and its remnants should move westward at around 10
kt until dissipation occurs in a couple of days. The official
foreast track is just an update and extension of the previous
advisory track, and closely follows the consensus track models HCCA
and TCVE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0900Z 19.9N 119.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 26/1800Z 20.1N 120.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 27/0600Z 20.1N 122.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 27/1800Z 20.0N 124.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[cycloneye]

Post-Tropical Cyclone Daniel Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052018
800 AM PDT Tue Jun 26 2018

Daniel has become a swirl of low- to mid-level clouds with no
associated convection over 23-24C sea surface temperatures, and
thus has degenerated to a remnant low pressure area. The remnants
of Daniel should move westward for the next 36 h or so before
dissipating completely.

This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center
on Daniel. For additional information on the remnant low please see
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under
AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at
http://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.shtml.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/1500Z 20.0N 120.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 27/0000Z 20.1N 121.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 27/1200Z 20.1N 123.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 28/0000Z 20.0N 126.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven