EPAC: DANIEL - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

EP, 95, 2018062118, , BEST, 0, 117N, 1158W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 180, 70, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, ,
EP, 95, 2018062200, , BEST, 0, 118N, 1159W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 180, 70, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, ,
EP, 95, 2018062206, , BEST, 0, 118N, 1160W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 180, 70, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, ,
EP, 95, 2018062212, , BEST, 0, 119N, 1161W, 20, 1012, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 180, 70, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, ,
EP, 95, 2018062218, , BEST, 0, 120N, 1162W, 20, 1010, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 180, 70, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,

From the 11 AM PDT TWO:

A second broad and elongated area of low pressure located about 800
miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula continues to produce shower and thunderstorm activity,
which has increased slightly in organization. Environmental
conditions are expected to be somewhat conducive for development
over the next few days, and a tropical depression could form over
the weekend while the disturbance moves toward the north or
north-northeast at about 5 mph over the open eastern North Pacific.
The system is expected to reach cooler waters early next week, which
will limit the potential for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP952018 06/22/18 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 26 29 36 43 43 44 41 37 33 28
V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 26 29 36 43 43 44 41 37 33 28
V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 21 21 23 25 26 25 23 20 17 DIS
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 17 17 15 17 18 17 20 15 12 7 6 5 3
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -1 -3 -3 -1 -1 3 1 3 5 4 5
SHEAR DIR 73 65 58 57 57 58 40 37 23 32 348 27 58
SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 28.8 27.5 26.6 25.5 24.0 23.1 22.6 22.8
POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 149 151 153 152 139 129 118 103 94 89 91
200 MB T (C) -54.1 -53.8 -54.1 -54.6 -54.4 -54.3 -54.4 -53.8 -54.1 -53.9 -54.2 -54.1 -54.3
200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 4 5 3 2 1 1 0 0 0
700-500 MB RH 60 61 61 62 64 62 60 61 57 50 46 43 39
MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 6 6 7 9 11 11 11 10 8 8 6
850 MB ENV VOR -3 -1 -1 -5 2 18 20 22 10 28 38 46 37
200 MB DIV 36 44 60 61 44 68 54 18 -7 -20 -17 -20 -5
700-850 TADV 0 1 0 0 -2 -7 -7 -5 -7 -4 0 -1 1
LAND (KM) 1378 1383 1388 1383 1358 1205 964 790 770 832 1016 1227 1434
LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.2 13.5 15.5 17.4 18.7 19.4 19.7 19.7 19.5
LONG(DEG W) 116.2 116.3 116.4 116.3 116.2 115.7 114.8 114.8 115.9 117.9 120.5 123.2 125.8
STM SPEED (KT) 1 1 0 1 4 9 11 8 9 11 13 12 12
HEAT CONTENT 17 17 18 17 16 15 7 5 0 0 0 0 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 725 (MEAN=550)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 2.4

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. 1. 6. 14. 22. 28. 31. 32. 31. 29.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -3. -6. -8. -8. -8. -5. -3.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 8. 7. 6.
PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -12.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. 1. 3. 6. 6. 6. 5. 2. 1. -0.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 16. 23. 23. 24. 21. 17. 13. 8.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 12.0 116.2

** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP952018 INVEST 06/22/18 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.83 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.11 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 17.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.16 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.43 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -1.9 999.00 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 103.8 735.9 to -82.5 0.77 999.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (15.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (10.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952018 INVEST 06/22/18 18 UTC ##
## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING

[Kingarabian]

Lots of EPS support in 48 hours to see this become Daniel.

[cycloneye]

Good looking.

[Kingarabian]

Yep, banding features becoming better established. Likely a TD within the next 24 hours. Although none of the models show it, the GFS had it bottom out @ 994mb yesterday. Quicker it develops, better the chance for it to become a hurricane.

[Yellow Evan]

This north-northeast path is often ripe for a quick fire tropical storm or hurricane due to it likely being steered by a trough and that's exactly what the GFS is showing. It's small sized will only help it intensify and weaken quickly.

[cycloneye]

Another elongated area of low pressure located a little more
than 800 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula continues to produce shower and thunderstorm
activity. There has been no significant change in organization
during the past several hours. However, environmental conditions are
expected to be somewhat conducive for development over the next few
days, and a tropical depression could form over the weekend while
the disturbance moves toward the north or north-northeast at about 5
mph over the open eastern North Pacific. The system is expected to
reach cooler waters early next week, which will limit the potential
for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

[cycloneye]

EP, 95, 2018062300, , BEST, 0, 122N, 1162W, 20, 1010, DB

[Weather150]

I'm thinking 95E will be the first invest to get the name Daniel. Looks a bit better organized than 94E currently and its 48 hr odds are higher than 94E's.

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

                    * EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST          *
                    * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED,      OHC AVAILABLE     *
                    *  INVEST      EP952018  06/23/18  00 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    20    21    23    26    29    36    40    40    39    34    30    25    22
V (KT) LAND       20    21    23    26    29    36    40    40    39    34    30    25    22
V (KT) LGEM       20    20    20    21    21    23    24    23    21    19    16   DIS   DIS
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)        17    14    18    19    17    20    14    10     8     9     6     5     2
SHEAR ADJ (KT)    -2    -1    -4    -5    -3     0     0     1     0     3     5     1     5
SHEAR DIR         68    56    53    57    59    39    37    22   351   353     8    38    23
SST (C)         29.1  29.1  29.1  29.1  28.9  27.9  26.8  25.5  23.4  22.3  22.2  22.8  23.2
POT. INT. (KT)   151   151   151   153   152   144   132   119    97    87    86    91    93
200 MB T (C)   -53.8 -54.1 -54.4 -54.3 -53.9 -54.5 -53.7 -54.2 -53.7 -54.0 -53.9 -54.0 -54.0
200 MB VXT (C)  -0.2  -0.2  -0.1  -0.1  -0.1   0.1   0.0   0.2   0.2   0.4   0.2   0.2  -0.1
TH_E DEV (C)       5     5     5     4     4     4     2     1     0     0     0     0     0
700-500 MB RH     61    62    63    64    64    63    62    59    50    46    43    41    37
MODEL VTX (KT)     7     6     6     7     8    10    12    11    11     9     8     7     6
850 MB ENV VOR     6     6     3    12    19    17    20    19    27    34    51    46    37
200 MB DIV        41    54    57    46    51    41    29     8    -6   -22   -15   -22   -19
700-850 TADV       1     0    -1    -4    -5    -7    -3    -6    -3    -4    -1     0     0
LAND (KM)       1358  1353  1353  1329  1269  1058   838   755   784  1002  1220  1473  1660
LAT (DEG N)     12.2  12.3  12.3  12.5  13.0  14.8  17.0  18.8  20.0  20.5  20.6  20.2  19.8
LONG(DEG W)    116.2 116.3 116.3 116.2 116.0 115.3 115.0 115.8 117.9 120.9 124.1 126.9 128.8
STM SPEED (KT)     1     1     1     4     7    11    10    11    12    15    15    12     8
HEAT CONTENT      16    16    16    16    16    10     5     0     0     0     0     0     0

  FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/  1      CX,CY:   0/  1
  T-12 MAX WIND:  20            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  738  (MEAN=550)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:  17.6 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  47.0 (MEAN=65.0)
  PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR):            1.5

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.  -0.  -1.  -1.  -2.
  SST POTENTIAL         -0.  -1.  -1.   1.   6.  14.  22.  26.  28.  30.  29.  26.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     1.   2.   2.   1.  -0.  -3.  -5.  -6.  -7.  -6.  -4.  -1.
  VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ     0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.   0.  -0.  -0.  -0.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR     1.   2.   3.   4.   7.   8.   8.   7.   6.   6.   5.   4.
  PERSISTENCE           -0.  -0.  -0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -0.  -0.  -0.   0.   1.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.   0.   0.  -0.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -2.  -1.  -0.  -0.
  THETA_E EXCESS        -0.  -0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -6.  -8. -11. -13. -15.
  700-500 MB RH         -0.  -0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -3.
  MODEL VTX TENDENCY    -0.  -0.   0.   1.   4.   6.   5.   5.   3.   2.   0.  -1.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -1.
  850-700 T ADVEC        0.   0.   0.   0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION    -0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -4.  -3.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    1.   1.   2.   2.   3.   4.   4.   4.   5.   5.   4.   5.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.   0.  -0.  -0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.
  GOES PREDICTORS        0.   0.   1.   1.  -0.  -2.  -4.  -4.  -5.  -5.  -6.  -6.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT    -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -0.   0.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE           1.   3.   6.   9.  16.  20.  20.  19.  14.  10.   6.   2.

                CURRENT MAX WIND (KT):   20. LAT, LON:   12.2   116.2

      ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP952018 INVEST     06/23/18  00 UTC **
 (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
 
     Predictor             Value   RI Predictor Range  Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):     0.0     -22.0  to   44.0       0.33         999.0
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   :   131.5      40.5  to  149.3       0.84         999.0
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :    17.3      18.9  to    1.4       0.09         999.0
 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) :    16.0       0.0  to  106.7       0.15         999.0
 MAXIMUM WIND (kt)     :    20.0      22.5  to  132.0       0.00         999.0
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :    49.8     -33.0  to  156.2       0.44         999.0
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :   999.0      37.8  to    2.1     999.00         999.0
 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm:     1.5      62.3  to    0.0       0.98         999.0
 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP  :  9999.0       2.2  to   -1.9     999.00         999.0
 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2):    98.2     735.9  to  -82.5       0.78         999.0
 
 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (15.3%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (10.4%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%)
   
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  RI (kt / h)  | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48  |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
   SHIPS-RII:   999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%
    Logistic:   999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%
    Bayesian:   999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%
   Consensus:   999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952018 INVEST     06/23/18  00 UTC         ##
   ##         ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING

[Yellow Evan]

The elongated area of low pressure located a little more than 900
miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula continues to produce showers and thunderstorms. There has
been no increase in organization, but environmental conditions are
expected to be somewhat conducive for development over the next few
days, and a tropical depression could form over the weekend while
the disturbance moves slowly toward the north or north-northeast
over the open eastern North Pacific. The system is expected to reach
cooler waters early next week, which will limit the potential for
development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

[cycloneye]

70%/70%

Showers and thunderstorms are gradually becoming better organized
near an area of low pressure located about 800 miles south-southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, but satellite
wind data indicate that the low's circulation remains somewhat
elongated. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive
for development while the system moves northward over the next day
or two, and a tropical depression is likely to form before the
system reaches colder waters on Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percen

[cycloneye]

Is ready to be a Tropical Depression. Saved loop.

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP952018 06/23/18 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 35 38 42 41 38 34 30 25 18 DIS
V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 35 38 42 41 38 34 30 25 18 DIS
V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 30 31 31 29 26 22 19 16 DIS DIS
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 16 18 15 15 16 11 11 6 6 4 4 11 11
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -3 -2 0 -1 -1 2 5 5 6 3 5
SHEAR DIR 50 50 58 52 37 30 12 339 326 301 234 231 234
SST (C) 29.0 28.9 28.5 27.9 27.2 25.8 23.9 22.8 22.5 22.5 22.8 22.9 22.6
POT. INT. (KT) 152 151 148 143 137 122 102 91 87 86 89 91 88
200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.2 -53.9 -54.0 -54.0 -53.4 -53.8 -53.6 -53.8 -53.7 -53.8 -53.8 -53.9
200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
700-500 MB RH 63 65 65 63 63 62 55 46 45 43 42 38 38
MODEL VTX (KT) 7 9 10 12 12 12 12 11 10 9 7 LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 18 25 38 49 42 34 42 37 35 44 35 32 29
200 MB DIV 44 39 41 42 39 22 2 4 -12 -17 -27 -21 -13
700-850 TADV -1 -3 -4 -7 -8 -1 -7 0 -6 0 -1 3 2
LAND (KM) 1279 1239 1176 1090 996 868 846 990 1188 1342 1452 1547 1664
LAT (DEG N) 12.8 13.2 13.8 14.7 15.8 18.0 19.4 20.1 20.0 19.9 19.8 20.5 21.4
LONG(DEG W) 115.8 115.8 115.7 115.7 115.8 116.5 118.1 120.5 123.0 125.0 126.3 128.0 129.9
STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 8 10 12 11 11 12 11 8 7 9 11
HEAT CONTENT 16 16 14 9 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 3 CX,CY: 1/ 3
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 731 (MEAN=550)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.2 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 1.4

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 2. 7. 12. 16. 19. 21. 22. 21. 18.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1.
PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -14. -16. -18.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 2. -1. -2. -2.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -3.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 13. 17. 16. 13. 9. 5. -0. -7. -12.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.8 115.8

** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP952018 INVEST 06/23/18 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.74 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.15 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 11.4 0.0 to 106.7 0.11 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.39 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 9.5 62.3 to 0.0 0.85 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -1.9 999.00 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 117.4 735.9 to -82.5 0.76 999.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (15.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (10.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952018 INVEST 06/23/18 12 UTC ##
## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING

[cycloneye]

Up to 80%.

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located about 800 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the
Baja California peninsula continue to show signs of organization.
Upper-level winds are becoming more conducive for development, and
a tropical depression is likely to form later today or on Sunday
while the low moves northward to north-northwestward at about 10
mph. Development is not expected by Monday once the low reaches
colder waters.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

[Yellow Evan]

This isn't likely to be more than a TD given we don't even have Dvorak numbers from SAB yet. Barring an ASCAT miracle, I doubt this gets to T2.5.

[Kingarabian]

This isn't likely to be more than a TD given we don't even have Dvorak numbers from SAB yet. Barring an ASCAT miracle, I doubt this gets to T2.5.

GFS and Euro both peak it @ 994mb.

[cycloneye]

SHIP doesn't do much on intensity.

Code: Select all

                  * EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST          *
                    * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED,      OHC AVAILABLE     *
                    *  INVEST      EP952018  06/23/18  18 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    25    26    29    31    33    34    35    31    28    23    21    17   DIS
V (KT) LAND       25    26    29    31    33    34    35    31    28    23    21    17   DIS
V (KT) LGEM       25    25    26    26    26    24    22    19    16   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)        16    15    16    17    12     9     9     6     7     5     7     9    10
SHEAR ADJ (KT)    -3    -2     0     0     1     0     0     2     3     3     3     5     4
SHEAR DIR         49    50    48    34    25    15   336   319   289   266   202   191   195
SST (C)         29.1  28.9  28.4  27.6  26.9  25.4  22.8  22.0  22.1  22.5  22.8  22.8  22.6
POT. INT. (KT)   153   152   149   141   134   118    91    83    83    86    89    89    88
200 MB T (C)   -54.2 -53.9 -54.2 -54.2 -53.9 -53.7 -53.9 -53.8 -53.7 -53.6 -53.8 -53.9 -54.0
200 MB VXT (C)  -0.2  -0.1   0.1   0.2   0.2   0.2   0.4   0.3   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0
TH_E DEV (C)       4     4     4     3     2     1     0     0     0     0     0     0     0
700-500 MB RH     64    66    63    64    64    60    51    45    44    42    40    38    36
MODEL VTX (KT)     9    10    11    12    13    11    12    11    10     8  LOST  LOST  LOST
850 MB ENV VOR    20    34    41    33    40    34    42    44    48    61    47    41    26
200 MB DIV        34    55    58    35    46     9     6    -4     0   -18   -13   -21    -7
700-850 TADV      -2    -5    -7    -7    -2    -2    -4    -3     0    -1     2     1     7
LAND (KM)       1283  1229  1141  1015   886   768   786   982  1182  1370  1517  1599  1718
LAT (DEG N)     12.7  13.2  14.0  15.2  16.6  18.8  20.4  20.9  20.8  20.5  20.3  20.8  21.6
LONG(DEG W)    115.7 115.6 115.4 115.2 115.2 116.0 118.3 121.1 123.8 125.9 127.5 128.8 130.6
STM SPEED (KT)     4     7    10    13    13    12    14    13    11     9     7     7    11
HEAT CONTENT      16    16    14     8     5     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0

  FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/  2      CX,CY:   1/  2
  T-12 MAX WIND:  25            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  691  (MEAN=550)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:  17.7 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  52.0 (MEAN=65.0)
  PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR):            0.6

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.  -0.  -1.  -1.  -2.
  SST POTENTIAL         -0.  -0.   0.   2.   7.  12.  16.  18.  19.  21.  20.  17.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.
  VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR     1.   1.   2.   3.   3.   3.   2.   2.   2.   1.   1.   0.
  PERSISTENCE           -0.  -0.  -0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -0.  -0.  -0.   0.   1.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.   0.  -0.  -0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -0.   0.   0.   0.
  THETA_E EXCESS        -0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -5.  -7. -10. -12. -14. -16. -18.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -0.  -0.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -4.
  MODEL VTX TENDENCY     0.   1.   3.   4.   3.   4.   3.   2.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -1.  -1.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   0.   0.   0.  -0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.
  850-700 T ADVEC       -0.  -0.   0.   0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION    -0.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -4.  -4.  -3.  -2.  -2.  -3.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   1.   1.   2.   2.   3.   3.   3.   3.   3.   3.   3.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.   0.  -0.  -0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.
  GOES PREDICTORS        0.   0.   0.   0.  -0.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -4.  -4.  -5.  -5.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT    -0.  -0.  -0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE           1.   4.   6.   8.  10.  10.   6.   3.  -2.  -4.  -8. -13.

                CURRENT MAX WIND (KT):   25. LAT, LON:   12.7   115.7

      ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP952018 INVEST     06/23/18  18 UTC **
 (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
 
     Predictor             Value   RI Predictor Range  Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):     0.0     -22.0  to   44.0       0.33         999.0
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   :   120.8      40.5  to  149.3       0.74         999.0
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :    15.2      18.9  to    1.4       0.21         999.0
 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) :    11.8       0.0  to  106.7       0.11         999.0
 MAXIMUM WIND (kt)     :    25.0      22.5  to  132.0       0.07         999.0
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :    45.6     -33.0  to  156.2       0.42         999.0
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :   999.0      37.8  to    2.1     999.00         999.0
 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm:     0.0      62.3  to    0.0       1.00         999.0
 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP  :  9999.0       2.2  to   -1.9     999.00         999.0
 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2):   112.2     735.9  to  -82.5       0.76         999.0
 
 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (15.3%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (10.4%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%)
   
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  RI (kt / h)  | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48  |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
   SHIPS-RII:   999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%
    Logistic:   999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%
    Bayesian:   999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%
   Consensus:   999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952018 INVEST     06/23/18  18 UTC         ##
   ##         ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING

[Kingarabian]

1st numbers from SAB:

TXPZ25 KNES 231824
TCSENP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (95E)

B. 23/1800Z

C. 12.9N

D. 115.3W

E. FIVE/GOES-W

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...LARGER THAN 2/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 1.0. MET IS
1.0 AND PT IS 1.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...ZHU

[Sciencerocks]

Within my opinion it looks close to a td at this moment as it has a well defined LLC and convection is pretty organized. Always imagine if this was in the gulf or western caribbean.