EPAC: EMILIA - Post-Tropical

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Re: EPAC: SIX-E - Tropical Depression

#61 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 27, 2018 9:38 pm

Interesting part of discussion about GFS.

It should be noted that
the 18Z GFS forecasts a significantly stronger cyclone than the
remainder of the global models and intensity guidance, and appears
to be an outlier. Since the strength of the GFS vortex is used as a
predictor in the SHIPS guidance, that intensity model also showed
more intensification this cycle. For now, the NHC intensity
forecast follows the more conservative LGEM, HWRF, and ECMWF-based
SHIPS guidance, and is not too different than the previous official
forecast. If other models trend toward the GFS solution of a
stronger storm, the NHC forecast may need to be adjusted in future
advisories.
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Re: EPAC: SIX-E - Tropical Depression

#62 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Jun 27, 2018 10:00 pm

1900hurricane wrote:Mostly, although a 0.5 T# can be added if the primary curved band is almost entirely of the white shade or colder. That's a pretty rare occurrence though.


In my 4 years following Dvorak, I don't recall an instance of that actually happening.
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Re: EPAC: SIX-E - Tropical Depression

#63 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Jun 28, 2018 1:28 am

Considerable increase in convection, but the LLC is still displaced to the east.


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Last edited by Kingarabian on Thu Jun 28, 2018 1:38 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: EPAC: SIX-E - Tropical Depression

#64 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Jun 28, 2018 1:35 am

TXPZ26 KNES 280626
TCSENP

A. 06E (NONAME)

B. 28/0600Z

C. 13.6N

D. 110.7W

E. THREE/GOES-W

F. T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...SHEAR PATTERN CHARACTERIZED BY CIRCULARLY DEFINED CLOUD
LINES WITH THE LLCC LESS THAN 75 NM FROM A SMALL COLD OVERCAST FOR A
DT=1.5. MET=1.5. PT=2.0. FT IS BASED ON PT SINCE CLOUD FEATURES ARE NOT
CLEAR CUT PRECISE LLCC LOCATION COULD NOT BE DETERMINED AND AN ADJUSTMENT
WAS MADE TO THE MET.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...LEE
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Re: EPAC: SIX-E - Tropical Depression

#65 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 28, 2018 1:52 am

Remains as TD:

EP, 06, 2018062806, , BEST, 0, 136N, 1107W, 30, 1006, TD
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Re: EPAC: SIX-E - Tropical Depression

#66 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Jun 28, 2018 2:57 am

cycloneye wrote:Remains as TD:

EP, 06, 2018062806, , BEST, 0, 136N, 1107W, 30, 1006, TD



CURRENT ESTIMATE
Date (mmddhhmm): 06280437
SATCON: MSLP = 1005 hPa MSW = 37 knots
SATCON Member Consensus: 34.0 knots
Pressure -> Wind Using SATCON MSLP: 45 knots
Distance to Outer Closed Isobar Used is 200 nm
Eye Size Correction Used is 0 knots Source: NA


Satcon supports an upgrade.
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Re: EPAC: SIX-E - Tropical Depression

#67 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Jun 28, 2018 3:40 am

We have Emilia.
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Re: EPAC: EMILIA - Tropical Storm

#68 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 28, 2018 5:39 am

Tropical Storm Emilia Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062018
300 AM MDT Thu Jun 28 2018

Convection has steadily increased and become better organized since
the previous advisory, especially in the inner-core region.
Satellite intensity estimates at 0600 UTC were T2.0/30 kt from both
TAFB and SAB, and T2.3/33 kt from UW-CIMSS ADT. Since that time,
however, convection near the low-level center has increased,
resulting in a steady increase in the raw ADT estimates to T2.5/35
kt. Based on the latter data, the initial intensity is increased to
35 kt at the advisory time, making Emilia the fifth tropical storm
so far this season as well as the fifth tropical storm so far during
the month of June.

The motion estimate is an uncertain 285/13 kt due to uncertainty in
the exact location of the low-level center. Passive microwave
satellite data, plus extrapolation of the previous motion, were
used to locate the center. However, recent GOES-16 nighttime cloud
physics satellite data suggest that the center may be developing
closer to the ball of strong convection in the southern portion of
the north-to-southwest elongated circulation. Having said that, the
latest model guidance remains in fair agreement on Emilia moving in
a general west-northwestward direction during the next 96 hours,
accompanied by a gradual decrease in forward speed. Afterwards,
what should be a weakened and more shallow cyclone is expected to
be turned westward by a strong subtropical ridge and brisk easterly
tradewind flow. The GFS and UKMET models take Emilia more
northwestward into the strong subtropical ridge after 72 hours,
which seems unlikely. As a result, the new track forecast is similar
to the previous advisory, which lies near the southern edge of the
guidance envelope and close to a blend of the ECMWF and HWRF models.

Emilia's outflow is good to the west but restricted to the east due
to near 20 kt of easterly vertical wind shear. The shear is forecast
to decrease to around 15 kt by 48 hours and to less than 10 kt by 72
h and beyond. This should allow for some modest strengthening
during the next 48 h while the cyclone remains over SSTs greater
than 26 deg C. After that time, however, SSTs drop off sharply to
less than 25C, and the cooler water temperatures are expected to
combine with much drier mid-level to induce a steady weakening trend
despite the favorable shear environment. The new NHC intensity
forecast is essentially just the same as the previous advisory, and
is slightly higher the consensus intensity model IVCN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0900Z 13.8N 111.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 28/1800Z 14.4N 113.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 29/0600Z 15.2N 115.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 29/1800Z 15.9N 117.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 30/0600Z 16.5N 118.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 01/0600Z 17.6N 121.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 02/0600Z 19.1N 125.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 03/0600Z 20.3N 129.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: EPAC: EMILIA - Tropical Storm

#69 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 28, 2018 9:37 am

Tropical Storm Emilia Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062018
900 AM MDT Thu Jun 28 2018

Deep convection continues in the western semicircle of the cyclone,
although a fair portion of the eastern side of the low-level
circulation is exposed due to shear. Satellite classifications are
essentially the same as 6 hours ago, so the initial wind speed will
stay 35 kt. Global models are in good agreement that the wind shear
will decrease over the next 24 hours, which should promote
strengthening. In a couple of days, Emilia is predicted to move over
cool SSTs and through a drier environment, causing its inevitable
weakening to begin. The official forecast is essentially an update
of the previous one, showing a gradual increase in strength until
late Friday, then weakening on Sunday. Emilia should become a
remnant low by 96 hours as it moves over SSTs of about 23C.

Emilia has been a challenging storm to track because of limited
microwave passes and an elongated low-level structure. Even with
1-min GOES-16 visible data, it is difficult to tell how embedded
the center of Emilia is within the deep convection. The available
data suggest the storm has slowed a little bit and turned to the
right, so my motion estimate is 290/12 kt. A mid-level ridge over
Mexico and the adjacent eastern Pacific should gradually weaken
during the next few days, resulting in a reduction of Emilia's
forward speed. The biggest change from the last forecast cycle is
that there could be a more substantial break in the subtropical
ridge in the medium-range period, allowing the storm to continue a
more west-northwestward motion, rather than taking a climatological
westward turn. This track is dependent on how strong the cyclone is
at that time and, since Emilia is forecast to be rather weak at
long range, the official forecast is on the southern side of the
guidance envelope, albeit with a northward adjustment since the last
advisory.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/1500Z 14.4N 112.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 29/0000Z 15.1N 114.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 29/1200Z 15.9N 116.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 30/0000Z 16.6N 118.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 30/1200Z 17.2N 119.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 01/1200Z 18.6N 123.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 02/1200Z 20.5N 126.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 03/1200Z 21.5N 131.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Blake
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Re: EPAC: EMILIA - Tropical Storm

#70 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 28, 2018 1:44 pm

TXPZ26 KNES 281825
TCSENP

A. 06E (EMILIA)

B. 28/1800Z

C. 14.6N

D. 113.1W

E. THREE/GOES-W

F. T2.5/2.5/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...SHEARED PATTERN WITH LLCC LESS THAN 3/4 DEGREE AWAY FROM
EDGE OF ACTIVE CONVECTION. MET=2.0 AND PT=2.5. FT IS BASED ON PT DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IN LLCC'S EXACT LOCATION.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...KIM
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Re: EPAC: EMILIA - Tropical Storm

#71 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 28, 2018 1:46 pm

EP, 06, 2018062818, , BEST, 0, 147N, 1131W, 40, 1004, TS
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Re: EPAC: EMILIA - Tropical Storm

#72 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 28, 2018 2:22 pm

SAB up to 3.0.

TXPZ26 KNES 281908
TCSENP
CCA

A. 06E (EMILIA)

B. 28/1800Z

C. 14.6N

D. 113.1W

E. THREE/GOES-W

F. T3.0/3.0/D2.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...CORRECTED FOR INTENSITY BASED ON REANALYSIS. CENTER IS
LESS THAN 1/2 DEGREE FROM THE EDGE OF A LARGE OVERCAST RESULTING IN A
DT OF 3.0 USING THE SHEAR PATTERN. PT AGREES WHILE MET IS 2.5 BASED ON
24 HR RAPID DEVELOPMENT TREND. FT IS BASED ON PT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN
THE PRECISE CENTER LOCATION.

I. ADDL POSITIONS
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Re: EPAC: EMILIA - Tropical Storm

#73 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Jun 28, 2018 3:19 pm

:uarrow:

Continues to remain ahead in development compared to what the models show.
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Re: EPAC: EMILIA - Tropical Storm

#74 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 28, 2018 3:41 pm

Tropical Storm Emilia Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062018
300 PM MDT Thu Jun 28 2018

Satellite images indicate that Emilia is better organized than this
morning, with a large banding feature wrapping around the western
semicircle. There is still a fair amount of northeasterly shear,
however, since the eastern part of the circulation is partially
exposed. A blend of the Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB gives an
initial wind speed of 40 kt. Further strengthening is expected over
the next day or so while Emilia experiences decreasing shear over
warm waters. A gradual decline in intensity should begin over the
weekend due to the storm encountering cooler SSTs and entraining
drier more stable air. Model guidance is a bit higher with the peak
intensity of Emilia on this cycle, and the official prediction
follows suit, ending up near the corrected consensus models.

The storm continues to move west-northwestward this afternoon. A
gradual decrease in Emilia's forward speed should occur over the
next few days due to a weakening mid-level ridge to the north. The
global models are still indicating a break in the subtropical ridge
persisting at long range, which would keep the west-northwestward
motion going throughout the period. The only change to the track
forecast is a northward adjustment at days 4 and 5 to better match
the poleward-trending models, although the official forecast
remains on the southern side of the guidance envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/2100Z 14.9N 113.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 29/0600Z 15.5N 115.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 29/1800Z 16.2N 117.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 30/0600Z 16.9N 118.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 30/1800Z 17.5N 120.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 01/1800Z 19.0N 123.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 02/1800Z 21.0N 127.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 03/1800Z 22.5N 131.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Blake
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Re: EPAC: EMILIA - Tropical Storm

#75 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 28, 2018 7:58 pm

Up to 45 kts.

EP, 06, 2018062900, , BEST, 0, 153N, 1140W, 45, 1000, TS
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Re: EPAC: EMILIA - Tropical Storm

#76 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 28, 2018 8:43 pm

TXPZ26 KNES 290021
TCSENP

A. 06E (EMILIA)

B. 29/0000Z

C. 15.4N

D. 113.9W

E. THREE/GOES-W

F. T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...POSITION BASED ON HI RES GOES-16 DATA. CENTER IS LESS THAN
3/4 DEGREE FROM THE EDGE OF LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION RESULTING IN A DT
OF 2.5 USING THE SHEAR PATTERN. MET IS ALSO 2.5. PT IS 3.0. FT IS BASED
ON PT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE PRECISE CENTER LOCATION.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...TURK
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Re: EPAC: EMILIA - Tropical Storm

#77 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Jun 28, 2018 9:24 pm

Very cold convection has been expanding and now is almost over the LLC. Expect it to change to a CDO scene type on Dvorak within the next 12 hours. Should be vertically stacked and making a push towards hurricane status in 24 hours.

Image
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Re: EPAC: EMILIA - Tropical Storm

#78 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 28, 2018 9:34 pm

Tropical Storm Emilia Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062018
900 PM MDT Thu Jun 28 2018

Several microwave images during the day revealed that Emilia
continues to be a sheared cyclone with the center to the east of a
convective mass. However, it appears that during the past hour or
so, the center is a little closer to the edge of the thunderstorm
activity, and Dvorak T-numbers are now indicative of a 45-kt
tropical cyclone. Model guidance is not showing much decrease in the
northeasterly shear for the next 24 to 36 h, and this scenario only
allows for slight strengthening. In addition, by the time the shear
is forecast to decrease, the circulation of Emilia will be affected
by cooler waters. By then, a decay in intensity is anticipated.

Emilia is moving toward the west-northwest or 290 degrees at about
10 kt, steered by the flow around a narrow subtropical ridge to the
north of the cyclone. Most of the global models indicate that the
ridge will persist for the next several days, and the forecast
flow pattern should keep Emilia on the same general track until
dissipation. The NHC forecast is very similar to the previous one
and follows very closely the HFIP Corrected Consensus (HCCA), which
is in the middle of the guidance envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0300Z 15.4N 114.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 29/1200Z 16.0N 116.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 30/0000Z 16.6N 117.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 30/1200Z 17.3N 119.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 01/0000Z 18.0N 121.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 02/0000Z 19.7N 125.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 03/0000Z 21.5N 129.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 04/0000Z 23.0N 133.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Avila
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Re: EPAC: EMILIA - Tropical Storm

#79 Postby Chris90 » Thu Jun 28, 2018 9:53 pm

Slowly but surely Emilia is getting her act together.
I guessed Aletta would peak at 120-125kts, and Bud at 115kts, so I'm going to try again. I'll guess Emilia peaks at 75kts.

Anybody else want to take a guess just for fun?
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Re: EPAC: EMILIA - Tropical Storm

#80 Postby CyclonicFury » Thu Jun 28, 2018 9:55 pm

Chris90 wrote:Slowly but surely Emilia is getting her act together.
I guessed Aletta would peak at 120-125kts, and Bud at 115kts, so I'm going to try again. I'll guess Emilia peaks at 75kts.

Anybody else want to take a guess just for fun?

I am going to guess 60 kts. Makes a run for hurricane status but ultimately falls short as it hits cool waters right as it begins to really get going.
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