EPAC: EMILIA - Post-Tropical

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 96E

#21 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 26, 2018 12:42 pm

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a broad low
pressure area located about 600 miles south-southwest of Acapulco,
Mexico, has become a little better organized this morning.
Additional gradual development is likely, and a tropical depression
is expected to form within the next couple of days while the system
moves generally west-northwestward, well south of the coast of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 96E

#22 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 26, 2018 2:09 pm

18z Best Track:

Location: 10.2°N 102.0°W
Maximum Winds: 25 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1008 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1011 mb
Radius of Circulation: 200 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 90 NM
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 96E

#23 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 26, 2018 4:04 pm

18z SHIP run came late and it is more bullish.

Code: Select all

 * EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST     *
                    * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE     *
                    *  INVEST      EP962018  06/26/18  18 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    25    28    30    31    33    39    47    53    60    63    70    74    77
V (KT) LAND       25    28    30    31    33    39    47    53    60    63    70    74    77
V (KT) LGEM       25    25    26    27    27    30    34    38    43    49    56    63    67
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)        21    22    29    29    22    16    15    14    13    14    11     9     7
SHEAR ADJ (KT)     0    -1    -1    -4    -1     1    -2     0     0     0    -2    -1    -4
SHEAR DIR         78    62    59    61    61    45    61    71    71    74    62    65    75
SST (C)         28.8  28.7  28.6  28.6  29.0  28.9  28.5  27.9  28.7  28.3  27.7  27.1  26.9
POT. INT. (KT)   153   152   152   152   156   155   150   142   150   145   139   133   132
200 MB T (C)   -54.5 -54.0 -54.5 -54.7 -54.3 -54.3 -54.2 -54.1 -54.1 -53.7 -53.7 -53.3 -53.5
200 MB VXT (C)   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.2   0.2   0.3   0.3   0.3   0.5
TH_E DEV (C)       6     6     7     7     7     7     6     6     5     5     5     5     4
700-500 MB RH     82    79    79    78    76    74    73    71    68    67    67    68    69
MODEL VTX (KT)    12    14    12    10     9    10    11    11    14    15    18    19    21
850 MB ENV VOR    61    61    63    52    47    37    46    54    63    65    56    61    55
200 MB DIV        82   117   124   100    77    54    40    46    49    30    34    45    37
700-850 TADV      -2   -10   -14    -9     0    -5     0    -2    -1    -1    -3    -2    -2
LAND (KM)        763   776   775   758   743   758   862   985  1022  1040  1057  1062  1074
LAT (DEG N)     10.2  10.6  11.1  11.7  12.4  13.6  14.3  14.5  14.7  15.0  15.4  15.9  16.8
LONG(DEG W)    102.0 103.2 104.3 105.5 106.6 108.8 111.1 113.0 114.4 115.3 116.2 116.9 118.1
STM SPEED (KT)    12    12    13    13    13    12    10     8     6     4     5     6     8
HEAT CONTENT      49    36    37    53    57    27    25    13    10     8     4     1     1

  FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 12      CX,CY: -10/  4
  T-12 MAX WIND:  25            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  535  (MEAN=584)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:  20.0 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  84.0 (MEAN=65.0)
  PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR):            2.8

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -3.
  SST POTENTIAL          0.  -1.  -1.  -1.   3.   9.  17.  24.  29.  33.  35.  34.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     0.   1.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -3.  -6.  -9. -10.  -9.  -7.
  VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR     1.   2.   3.   5.   7.  10.  12.  14.  15.  16.  16.  15.
  PERSISTENCE            0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -2.  -1.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   1.   1.   2.   2.   3.   3.   3.   3.   3.   3.
  MODEL VTX TENDENCY     0.   0.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -1.  -1.   3.   4.   9.  10.  12.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   1.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.   3.   3.   3.   3.   2.
  850-700 T ADVEC        0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   2.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.
  GOES PREDICTORS        1.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.   0.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  RI POTENTIAL           0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -1.   0.   1.   1.   2.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE           3.   5.   6.   8.  14.  22.  28.  35.  38.  45.  49.  52.

                CURRENT MAX WIND (KT):   25. LAT, LON:   10.2   102.0

      ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962018 INVEST     06/26/18  18 UTC **
 (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
 
     Predictor                  Value   RI Predictor Range  Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)         :  131.1     40.5  to  149.3        0.83         999.0
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT)      :    0.0    -22.0  to   44.0        0.33         999.0
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT)       :   24.7     19.6  to    1.4        0.00           0.0
 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2)       :   46.4      1.8  to  106.7        0.43         999.0
 D200 (10**7s-1)             :  100.0    -33.0  to  156.2        0.70         999.0
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP       :   20.0     37.8  to    2.1        0.50         999.0
 MAXIMUM WIND (KT)           :   25.0     22.5  to  132.0        0.07         999.0
 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2)      :   33.4    721.6  to  -82.5        0.86         999.0
 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear :    0.0     62.3  to    0.0        1.00         999.0
 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP        :   -0.2      2.2  to   -1.9        0.58         999.0
 
 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%)
   
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  RI (kt / h)  | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48  |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
   SHIPS-RII:     0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%
    Logistic:     0.5%    3.8%    1.1%    0.4%    0.5%    2.3%   18.2%   25.2%
    Bayesian:     0.0%    0.8%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.1%    0.1%    6.9%
   Consensus:     0.2%    1.5%    0.4%    0.2%    0.2%    0.8%    6.1%   10.7%
       DTOPS:     0.0%    1.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    1.0%    6.0%   26.0%

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962018 INVEST     06/26/18  18 UTC         ##
   ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3                          ##
   ## AHI=  0   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

                          CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX


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Re: EPAC: INVEST 96E

#24 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Jun 26, 2018 4:46 pm

:uarrow: I'm assuming the 18z GFS will come in more bullish as well then.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 96E

#25 Postby Weather150 » Tue Jun 26, 2018 4:47 pm

Kingarabian wrote::uarrow: I'm assuming the 18z GFS will come in more bullish as well then.

Already stronger at 42 hrs than at 12z.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 96E

#26 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 26, 2018 6:47 pm

Cloudiness and showers associated with a broad low pressure area
located about 500 miles south-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico,
continue to gradually become better organized. Additional
development is likely, and a tropical depression is expected to
form within the next day or two while the system moves generally
west-northwestward, well south of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.


Image

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 96E

#27 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Jun 26, 2018 7:34 pm

Impressive banding so far on 96E. Very close to a depression.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 96E

#28 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Jun 26, 2018 7:36 pm

26/2345 UTC 9.8N 103.6W T1.0/1.0 96E -- East Pacific
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 96E

#29 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Jun 26, 2018 7:37 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:
26/2345 UTC 9.8N 103.6W T1.0/1.0 96E -- East Pacific


Yup.

Only caveat is that the models show development leveling off for the next 24 hours. Will be interesting to see what occurs.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 96E

#30 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 26, 2018 7:46 pm

Yes,looking very good.

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 96E

#31 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 26, 2018 7:52 pm

00z Best Track:

EP, 96, 2018062700, , BEST, 0, 104N, 1030W, 25, 1007, LO
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 96E

#32 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 26, 2018 8:31 pm

18z HWRF up to cat 2.

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 96E

#33 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 27, 2018 12:54 am

Cloudiness and showers associated with a broad low pressure area
located about 550 miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico, continue to
gradually become better organized. Further development is likely,
and a tropical depression is expected to form within the next day
or two while the system moves generally west-northwestward away
from Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 96E

#34 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 27, 2018 1:00 am

TCFA issued.

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT REISSUED//
WTPN21 PHNC 270200
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/260151Z JUN 18//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PHNC 260200)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.2N 101.5W TO 14.1N 110.5W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 270130Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.4N 103.0W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 280200Z.//


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Re: EPAC: INVEST 96E

#35 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Jun 27, 2018 2:16 am

Euro is not too enthusiastic will 96E becoming anything more than a weak TS.

96E is currently embedded between a low shear/high shear environment. Its LLC is walking a fine line with very favorable shear conditions to the N/NW of the system (an anticyclone is building over the system as well. ), but moderate shear close to the center and strong shear to the S/SW. So it can either take off or struggle until it gains more latitude.

Another speed bump is its size. So either the models are going to be right or terribly wrong. 50/50.

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 96E

#36 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 27, 2018 6:44 am

Cloudiness and showers associated with a broad low pressure area
located about 600 miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico, continue to
gradually become better organized. Environmental conditions
support further development, and a tropical depression is expected
to form within the next day or so while the system moves generally
west-northwestward away from Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.


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Re: EPAC: INVEST 96E

#37 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 27, 2018 7:36 am

TXPZ26 KNES 271209
TCSENP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (96E)

B. 27/1145Z

C. 10.6N

D. 106.9W

E. FIVE/GOES-E

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...GREATER THAN 0.2 CURVED BANDING YIELDS A DT OF 1.0. MET
AND PT ARE 1.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...KIM
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 96E

#38 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 27, 2018 9:38 am

First visible images show organization improving.

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 96E

#39 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 27, 2018 12:43 pm

100%/100%

Satellite images indicate that a low pressure area located about
600 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, is becoming better
defined, and environmental conditions support further development.
If current trends continue, advisories could be initiated on a
tropical depression later today or tonight while the system moves
generally west-northwestward away from Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 96E

#40 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 27, 2018 1:07 pm

12z Euro a little bit more stronger.
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