EPAC: EMILIA - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Emilia Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062018
200 AM PDT Sat Jun 30 2018

Emilia has sheared apart during the past several hours, with the
low-level center now exposed to the northeast of a diminishing area
of deep convection. Recent scatterometer data indicate that the
sustained winds have decreased to near 35 kt, and that will be the
initial intensity for this advisory. Emilia should continue to
weaken as it moves over decreasing sea surface temperatures, and
the system is now expected to decay into a remnant low pressure
ares between 36-48 h.

The initial motion is now 285/8. The low- to mid-level flow on the
south side of the subtropical ridge should continue to steer Emilia
or its remnants west-northwestward for the next three days or so,
followed by a more westward motion before the remnants dissipate.
The new forecast track is an update of the previous track and lies
near the various consensus models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0900Z 17.0N 118.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 30/1800Z 17.4N 120.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 01/0600Z 18.1N 122.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 01/1800Z 18.9N 123.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 02/0600Z 20.0N 125.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 03/0600Z 21.5N 130.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 04/0600Z 22.0N 134.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

Tropical Depression Emilia Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062018
800 AM PDT Sat Jun 30 2018

Emilia's cloud pattern has degenerated significantly this morning
and it now consists of a swirl of low clouds with a small patch of
convection well removed from the center. The initial intensity has
been adjusted downward to 30 kt, and given that the circulation is
already moving over cool waters, additional weakening is forecast.
Emilia is expected to become a remnant low later today, although the
system could still generate intermittent patches of convection.

The initial motion is toward the west-northwest or 295 degrees at
10 kt. The depression or its remnants should continue on the same
general track steered by the low-level flow until dissipation in a
few days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/1500Z 17.7N 119.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 01/0000Z 18.3N 120.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 01/1200Z 19.0N 122.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 02/0000Z 19.9N 124.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 02/1200Z 21.0N 126.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 03/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila

[Chris90]

They say go big or go home, so I guessed on the higher side of intensity possibilities for Emilia, and she went home instead.
Congrats to CyclonicFury who had the closest guess for Emilia's peak.
Now we'll have to wait and see if 97E ever manages to get classified to see what kind of a run it can make.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Depression Emilia Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062018
200 PM PDT Sat Jun 30 2018

Emilia has lost all its deep convection while moving over
increasingly cooler waters, and it has become a swirl of low clouds.
A recent ASCAT pass indicated some isolated spots with 30 kt winds,
but it confirms the overall weakening trend of the circulation.
Emilia is expected to become a remnant low tonight, although the
system could still generate intermittent patches of convection
during the next day or so.

The initial motion is toward the west-northwest or 290 degrees at
10 kt. The depression, or its remnants, should continue on the same
general track steered by the low-level flow until dissipation in a
couple of days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/2100Z 18.0N 120.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 01/0600Z 18.5N 121.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 01/1800Z 19.0N 123.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 02/0600Z 19.5N 125.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 02/1800Z 20.5N 128.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 03/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila

[cycloneye]

Tropical Depression Emilia Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062018
800 PM PDT Sat Jun 30 2018

Emilia has been producing an area of deep convection southwest of
the low-level center, with cloud top temperatures of -60C to -70C
for the past few hours. As a result, Emilia is maintaining its
tropical cyclone status for now. The initial intensity remains 30 kt
based on the earlier ASCAT data. The cyclone should gradually
weaken in an increasingly hostile thermodynamic environment with the
shear increasing. Emilia should become a remnant low in 12 to 24
hours and the remnant low is expected to dissipate in 3 to 4
days.

The initial motion estimate is 295/10. Emilia and its remnants
should continue generally west-northwestward for a couple of days
before turning more westward in the low-level flow prior to
dissipation.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0300Z 18.4N 121.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 01/1200Z 18.8N 122.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 02/0000Z 19.5N 125.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 02/1200Z 20.2N 127.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 03/0000Z 20.9N 129.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 04/0000Z 21.2N 134.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan

[cycloneye]

Tropical Depression Emilia Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062018
200 AM PDT Sun Jul 01 2018

Emilia continues to produce a disorganized cluster of convection to
the southwest of the center, and so it remains a tropical cyclone
for another advisory cycle. Satellite intensity estimates and
surface wind data from the Windsat satellite show that the initial
intensity is near 25 kt. The convection is expected to dissipate
later today, with Emilia becoming a remnant low when that occurs.
Final dissipation of the remnants are expected after 72 h.

The initial motion remains 295/10. Emilia and its remnants should
continue generally west-northwestward for a couple of days before
turning more westward in the low-level flow prior to dissipation.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0900Z 18.9N 122.1W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 01/1800Z 19.4N 123.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 02/0600Z 20.1N 126.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 02/1800Z 20.8N 128.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 03/0600Z 21.3N 130.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 04/0600Z 21.5N 135.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

Tropical Depression Emilia Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062018
800 AM PDT Sun Jul 01 2018

Somewhat surprisingly, a small area of convection southwest of the
center of Emilia has persisted overnight, despite SSTs of around 25C
below the cyclone. Although the depression is located within a
fairly hostile thermodynamic environment, an upper-level trough to
the northwest may be providing enough dynamical support to maintain
the convection, at least for now. No recent scatterometer data is
available, so the initial intensity has been held at 25 kt based on
the latest Dvorak fixes from TAFB and SAB. The cyclone will still
likely lose all of its convection and become a remnant low later
today or early tomorrow since the upper-level dynamical support
should decrease over the next 12 hours or so and it will be moving
into a progressively drier environment. The various dynamical models
unanimously indicate that Emilia will then steadily spin down before
dissipating sometime between 48 and 72 h.

The initial motion is still 295/10 kt, and as long as Emilia
maintains convection, it will likely remain on this heading. Once
the system becomes a remnant low, the low-level tradewind flow will
cause it to turn westward until dissipation occurs in a few days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/1500Z 19.3N 123.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 02/0000Z 19.9N 124.7W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 02/1200Z 20.6N 126.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 03/0000Z 21.2N 129.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 03/1200Z 21.5N 131.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 04/1200Z...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

[cycloneye]

Tropical Depression Emilia Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062018
200 PM PDT Sun Jul 01 2018

Deep convection associated with Emilia has decreased in coverage
since this morning, and it appears that Emilia is finally well on
its way to becoming a remnant low. The initial wind speed is set to
25 kt, which is supported by subjective Dvorak intensity estimates
from both TAFB and SAB.

Emilia is currently over SSTs of 24-25 degrees Celsius and is moving
into a drier and more stable airmass. As a result, the cyclone
should degenerate into a remnant low later today or tonight, then
continue to spin down and dissipate within 72 hours.

The cyclone is moving west-northwestward or 295/10 kt. A
west-northwestward motion should continue for a little longer but
the system will likely turn toward the west as it comes under the
influence of the easterly low-level tradewind flow. The latest
track envelope has shifted slightly northward and the updated NHC
track has been adjusted accordingly.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/2100Z 19.7N 124.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 20.3N 125.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 02/1800Z 21.2N 127.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 03/0600Z 22.0N 130.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 03/1800Z 22.5N 133.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

[cycloneye]

Post-Tropical Cyclone Emilia Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062018
800 PM PDT Sun Jul 01 2018

Emilia lost all of its deep convection shortly after 1800 UTC, and
the system is now only a swirl of low-level clouds. Since the
cyclone is over cool 24 degree C waters and in a stable airmass,
significant deep convection is not expected to return. Therefore,
Emilia is now classified as a remnant low, and this is the last
advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system.

The remnant low is moving west-northwestward at 11 kt within the
low-level trade winds, and this general motion is expected to
continue during the next day or so. A turn to the west is forecast
to occur before the low dissipates in 2 to 3 days.

For additional information on the remnant low of Emilia please see
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under
AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web
at http://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.shtml.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0300Z 20.3N 125.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 02/1200Z 21.0N 127.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 03/0000Z 21.9N 129.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 03/1200Z 22.5N 131.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 04/0000Z 23.0N 134.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi