WPAC: PRAPIROON - Post-Tropical

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WPAC: PRAPIROON - Post-Tropical

#1 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 26, 2018 2:44 pm

Location: 18.4°N 135.8°E
Maximum Winds: 15 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1010 mb
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#2 Postby doomhaMwx » Wed Jun 27, 2018 5:55 am

90W INVEST 180627 0600 18.5N 134.7E WPAC 15 1010

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#3 Postby doomhaMwx » Wed Jun 27, 2018 5:59 am

ECMWF...

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#4 Postby Alyono » Wed Jun 27, 2018 2:34 pm

could be a typhoon slamming into Korea
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#5 Postby euro6208 » Wed Jun 27, 2018 4:30 pm

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
18.8N 132.9E, APPROXIMATELY 535 NM SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION WITH FLARING CONVECTION, BROAD TURNING, AND FORMATIVE
BANDING. A 271228Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF
ROTATION WITH A PARTIALLY EXPOSED CENTER AND LIMITED DEEP
CONVECTION. A 271227Z PARTIAL ASCAT PASS SHOWS A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED
BUT CLOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH PRIMARILY 10 KNOT WINDS
WRAPPED AROUND THE SYSTEM, AND A PATCH OF 15-20 KNOT WINDS LOCATED
TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF
GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, AND VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-31 CELSIUS).
RECENT GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARDS SHOWING DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS 90W TRACKS TO THE NORTHWEST, WITH
NAVGEM INTENSIFYING 90W THE MOST AS A CLOSED ORGANIZED CIRCULATION.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#6 Postby euro6208 » Wed Jun 27, 2018 4:32 pm

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#7 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Jun 27, 2018 5:17 pm

The outflow pattern looks pretty good for what it currently is. Not lacking in the ventilation department for sure.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#8 Postby euro6208 » Wed Jun 27, 2018 7:41 pm

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 18.8N 132.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 132.9E, APPROXIMATELY
500 NM SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH PERSISTENT
POCKETS OF CONVECTION, SLIGHTLY ELONGATED, AND WITH FORMATIVE
BANDING PRESENT. OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS THE SYSTEM'S CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURE HAS IMPROVED GREATLY. A 272110Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE SHOWS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED CENTER AND LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION
WITH DISTINCT LOW LEVEL BANDING FEATURES PRESENT. THE DISTURBANCE IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, LOW (10-
15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND VERY WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (30-31 CELSIUS). RECENT GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOW IN
AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 90W WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS IT TRACKS TO THE NORTHWEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#9 Postby euro6208 » Wed Jun 27, 2018 7:51 pm

TXPQ29 KNES 280008
TCSWNP
CCA

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (90W)

B. 27/2030Z

C. 19.5N

D. 133.9E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. TOO WEAK

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...CORRECTED FOR POSITION AND INTENSITY. THIS ESTIMATE
WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR DATA. REANALYSIS BASED ON SUBSEQUENT VISIBLE
IMAGERY REVEALED THAT THE CENTER WAS WELL ENE OF THE PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED
POSITION. AS SUCH THE CENTER IS OVER 2 DEGREES FROM THE ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION MAKING THE DT LESS THAN 1.0. THIS WILL BE THE FINAL BULLETIN
UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...TURK
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#10 Postby euro6208 » Thu Jun 28, 2018 3:38 am

Image

WTPN21 PGTW 280830
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 19.9N 132.9E TO 24.8N 127.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 280600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 20.4N 132.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 19.6N
132.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 132.3E, APPROXIMATELY 435 NM
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AFB. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWS
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING IN THE SOUTHERN ARC OF THE
SYSTEM WITH ADDITIONAL FLARING CONVECTION FORMING TO THE NORTHEAST.
A 280546Z SSMI 85GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS THE SAME BUILDING DEEP CONVECTION
AND THE IMPROVED SYMMETRY IN THE LLCC. VWS REMAINS LOW (10-15 KNOTS)
DIRECTLY OVER THE LLCC, WITH STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND NEAR-RADIAL
OUTFLOW. SSTS REMAIN WARM (28-29C) AND WILL SUPPORT FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 90W WILL REACH
TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTH AS IT TRACKS NORTHWEST TOWARDS OKINAWA,
WITH SOME VARIATION IN TIMING. NAVGEM, GFS, AND UKMET ALL SHOW 90W
BECOMING A TD WITHIN 24HRS, WITH THE ECMWF AND JGSM FOLLOWING
SHORTLY AFTER. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18
TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
290830Z.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#11 Postby euro6208 » Thu Jun 28, 2018 3:40 am

TPPN10 PGTW 280629

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 90W (NW OF GUAM)

B. 28/0600Z

C. 20.54N

D. 132.30E

E. THREE/HMWRI8

F. T1.0/1.0 STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 19A/PBO XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. .20 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDS 1.0 DT. MET/PT 1.0. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


DAVIS
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#12 Postby doomhaMwx » Thu Jun 28, 2018 5:49 am

Has a shot of becoming a Tropical Storm. Next name's "Prapiroon".


JMA: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 19N 132E WNW SLOWLY.

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#13 Postby euro6208 » Thu Jun 28, 2018 6:52 am

TPPN10 PGTW 280848

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 90W (SE OF OKINAWA)

B. 28/0830Z

C. 20.31N

D. 131.82E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T1.0/1.0 STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. .25 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDS
1.0 DT. MET/PT 1.0. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
28/0423Z 20.12N 132.47E ATMS


DAVIS
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#14 Postby euro6208 » Thu Jun 28, 2018 7:23 am

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#15 Postby euro6208 » Thu Jun 28, 2018 8:23 am

09W NINE 180628 1200 20.6N 131.5E WPAC 25 1005

9th TC of the season.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#16 Postby doomhaMwx » Thu Jun 28, 2018 8:26 am

Image
TD
Issued at 13:10 UTC, 28 June 2018

<Analysis at 12 UTC, 28 June>

Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N19°50' (19.8°)
E131°25' (131.4°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 10 km/h (6 kt)
Central pressure 1004 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 15 m/s (30 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23 m/s (45 kt)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 29 June>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N21°10' (21.2°)
E129°30' (129.5°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 10 km/h (6 kt)
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#17 Postby euro6208 » Thu Jun 28, 2018 8:30 am

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#18 Postby euro6208 » Thu Jun 28, 2018 8:34 am

JTWC up to 1.5...

TPPN10 PGTW 281219

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 90W (SE OF OKINAWA)

B. 28/1200Z

C. 20.09N

D. 131.35E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T1.5/1.5 STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. .30 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDS
1.5 DT. MET/PT 1.5. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


DAVIS
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#19 Postby euro6208 » Thu Jun 28, 2018 9:50 am

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#20 Postby euro6208 » Thu Jun 28, 2018 9:58 am

TPPN10 PGTW 281451

A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W (SE OF OKINAWA)

B. 28/1430Z

C. 20.00N

D. 131.00E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T2.0/2.0/D1.0/18HRS STT: D1.0/06HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. .35 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDS
2.0 DT. MET 1.5. PT 2.0. DBO DT. BROKE CONSTRAINTS (MORE THAN
0.5 IN 6 HOURS WITH T<4), STRONG PERSISTENT CNVCN AND OSCAT
SHOWING MULTIPLE 30KT WIND BARBS.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE

DAVIS
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