WPAC: MARIA - Post-Tropical

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Re: WPAC: MARIA - Typhoon

#501 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 10, 2018 8:27 pm

JMA:

TY 1808 (Maria)
Issued at 00:50 UTC, 11 July 2018

<Analysis at 00 UTC, 11 July>
Scale Large
Intensity Very strong
Center position N26°25' (26.4°)
E120°05' (120.1°)
Direction and speed of movement W 35 km/h (20 kt)
Central pressure 955 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 45 m/s (85 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (120 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 170 km (90 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area E 700 km (375 NM)
W 330 km (180 NM)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 11 July>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N27°30' (27.5°)
E116°40' (116.7°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30 km/h (16 kt)
Central pressure 990 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 12 July>
Intensity -
TD
Center position of probability circle N29°00' (29.0°)
E114°00' (114.0°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 25 km/h (14 kt)
Central pressure 996 hPa
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)
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Re: WPAC: MARIA - Typhoon

#502 Postby galaxy401 » Tue Jul 10, 2018 8:27 pm

About to make landfall on China now.
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Re: WPAC: MARIA - Typhoon

#503 Postby doomhaMwx » Tue Jul 10, 2018 8:48 pm

Maria has made landfall over Lianjiang, Fujian @ 1:10am UTC (9:10am local time) according to the CMA.
ZCZC
WHCI40 BABJ 110110
STY 1808 (1808) MARIA LANDED ON FUJIAN LIANJIANG
110110GMT (42m/s)
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: MARIA - Typhoon

#504 Postby doomhaMwx » Tue Jul 10, 2018 9:16 pm

VIS and radar from 12:30am UTC...

Image
Image
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Re: WPAC: MARIA - Typhoon

#505 Postby euro6208 » Tue Jul 10, 2018 10:24 pm

Image

Final warning.

WTPN32 PGTW 110300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FINAL WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 10W (MARIA) WARNING NR 034
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110000Z --- NEAR 26.4N 120.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.4N 120.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 27.7N 117.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 29.1N 114.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 30.8N 112.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 32.5N 111.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
110300Z POSITION NEAR 26.7N 119.3E.
TYPHOON 10W (MARIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 109 NM NORTHWEST OF
TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 110011Z 89 GHZ
GMI MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A GRADUALLY WEAKENING SYSTEM WITH AN
APPROXIMATE 30 NM WIDE OBLONG EYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 95 KNOTS
IS AVERAGED BETWEEN THE PGTW AND RJTD CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
T5.0 (90 KNOTS) AND T5.5 (102 KNOTS) RESPECTIVELY. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES RADIAL OUTFLOW AND MARGINAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
OF 20-25 KNOTS. TY 10W WILL CONTINUE TO BE STEERED TO THE NORTHWEST
BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST UNTIL DISSIPATING DUE TO
LAND INTERACTION BY TAU 48. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE FORECAST TRACK, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC
FORECAST. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED
FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
110000Z IS 26 FEET.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: MARIA - Typhoon

#506 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Tue Jul 10, 2018 10:42 pm

In just a week, Maria has yielded an estimated 35.8 units of ACE. If it had tracked a little longer, it could have exceeded Maria 2017.

http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Rea ... estpacific
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Re: WPAC: MARIA - Typhoon

#507 Postby NotoSans » Wed Jul 11, 2018 12:00 am

Surface observations suggested a central pressure of approximately 960 mb at landfall.
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Re: WPAC: MARIA - Typhoon

#508 Postby doomhaMwx » Wed Jul 11, 2018 4:24 am

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Re: WPAC: MARIA - Post-Tropical

#509 Postby doomhaMwx » Wed Jul 11, 2018 6:42 pm

Image
Image

TD
Issued at 18:45 UTC, 11 July 2018

<Analysis at 18 UTC, 11 July>

Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N28°00' (28.0°)
E115°00' (115.0°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 998 hPa
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Re: WPAC: MARIA - Post-Tropical

#510 Postby euro6208 » Fri Jul 13, 2018 9:11 am

Gone with the past. Maximum of 140 reached 2 times based on dvorak just like the rest since 1987...Could have been 150 to 160 knots tbh...
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Re: WPAC: MARIA - Post-Tropical

#511 Postby doomhaMwx » Sun Jul 15, 2018 4:11 am

Himawari-8 VIS satellite animation (combination of the 10 minute Floater and 2-3 minute Rapid Scan Floater) from July 01 to 12, 2018, showing the life of STY MARIA. Enjoy!



Link: https://youtu.be/IomxUydMx0E
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Re: WPAC: MARIA - Post-Tropical

#512 Postby 1900hurricane » Fri Jul 20, 2018 9:11 pm

Here's my personal intensity analysis for Maria in shortened b-deck format. Keep in mind that this is by no means official, just my opinion as far as intensities are concerned.

WP, 10, 2018070218, , BEST, 0, 101N, 1497E, 25, 1005, DB,
WP, 10, 2018070300, , BEST, 0, 106N, 1491E, 25, 1005, DB,
WP, 10, 2018070306, , BEST, 0, 109N, 1484E, 25, 1005, DB,
WP, 10, 2018070312, , BEST, 0, 112N, 1475E, 25, 1005, DB,
WP, 10, 2018070318, , BEST, 0, 114N, 1465E, 25, 1004, DB,
WP, 10, 2018070400, , BEST, 0, 117N, 1463E, 30, 1002, TD,
WP, 10, 2018070406, , BEST, 0, 124N, 1461E, 35, 1000, TS,
WP, 10, 2018070412, , BEST, 0, 126N, 1452E, 50, 994, TS,
WP, 10, 2018070418, , BEST, 0, 136N, 1449E, 65, 984, TY,
WP, 10, 2018070500, , BEST, 0, 141N, 1441E, 75, 979, TY,
WP, 10, 2018070506, , BEST, 0, 146N, 1434E, 80, 974, TY,
WP, 10, 2018070512, , BEST, 0, 148N, 1427E, 95, 962, TY,
WP, 10, 2018070518, , BEST, 0, 155N, 1423E, 115, 944, TY,
WP, 10, 2018070600, , BEST, 0, 160N, 1420E, 140, 919, ST,
WP, 10, 2018070606, , BEST, 0, 165N, 1416E, 140, 916, ST,
WP, 10, 2018070612, , BEST, 0, 168N, 1413E, 130, 922, ST,
WP, 10, 2018070618, , BEST, 0, 169N, 1409E, 120, 926, TY,
WP, 10, 2018070700, , BEST, 0, 171N, 1408E, 115, 931, TY,
WP, 10, 2018070706, , BEST, 0, 175N, 1406E, 110, 935, TY,
WP, 10, 2018070712, , BEST, 0, 179N, 1403E, 120, 931, TY,
WP, 10, 2018070718, , BEST, 0, 184N, 1397E, 125, 929, TY,
WP, 10, 2018070800, , BEST, 0, 191N, 1388E, 130, 923, ST,
WP, 10, 2018070806, , BEST, 0, 198N, 1378E, 140, 913, ST,
WP, 10, 2018070812, , BEST, 0, 205N, 1365E, 140, 913, ST,
WP, 10, 2018070818, , BEST, 0, 211N, 1351E, 145, 910, ST,
WP, 10, 2018070900, , BEST, 0, 218N, 1335E, 145, 909, ST,
WP, 10, 2018070906, , BEST, 0, 224N, 1318E, 130, 924, ST,
WP, 10, 2018070912, , BEST, 0, 229N, 1303E, 115, 931, TY,
WP, 10, 2018070918, , BEST, 0, 235N, 1287E, 105, 935, TY,
WP, 10, 2018071000, , BEST, 0, 240N, 1272E, 100, 941, TY,
WP, 10, 2018071006, , BEST, 0, 246N, 1256E, 95, 945, TY,
WP, 10, 2018071012, , BEST, 0, 252N, 1241E, 90, 949, TY,
WP, 10, 2018071018, , BEST, 0, 262N, 1222E, 85, 953, TY,
WP, 10, 2018071100, , BEST, 0, 264N, 1201E, 75, 960, TY,
WP, 10, 2018071106, , BEST, 0, 262N, 1180E, 65, 973, TY,
WP, 10, 2018071112, , BEST, 0, 265N, 1156E, 50, 987, TS,
WP, 10, 2018071118, , BEST, 0, 276N, 1152E, 35, 993, TS,
WP, 10, 2018071200, , BEST, 0, 281N, 1146E, 30, 995, TD,
WP, 10, 2018071206, , BEST, 0, 286N, 1139E, 25, 998, TD,
WP, 10, 2018071212, , BEST, 0, 296N, 1132E, 20, 1000, TD,


A couple of notes:

1) I did not classify Maria as a tropical cyclone until 00Z July 4. This is due to ASCAT data showing a circulation open to the west around 12Z July 3.
2) Once classified, I have Maria intensifying quickly. Only one TD point and two TS points exist prior to a 65 kt landfall on Guam around 18Z July 4. I have intensities higher in general prior to the first intensity peak.
3) I maintained initial peak intensity at 140 kt, but extended for one extra best track point. It's not impossible that Maria may have been a slight bit stronger, but no data leads me that way.
4) Time between the two peaks had intensities brought down with a local minimum of 110 kt as Maria slogged through eyewall replacement.
5) I brought the second intensity peak up to 145 kt and gave a little more time at C5 intensity. 145 kt is a compromise intensity between the Dvorak Technique and SATCON.
6) Intensities post second peak were almost across the board brought down. Landfall intensities at Miyakojima and China I estimate at 95 kt and 75 kt, respectively.

Except for where pressures were measured (Guam, Miyakojima, and China landfalls), pressures are estimated from KZC, a background pressure modified AH77, or a blend of both. Despite the increase of time at C5 and the slight nudge up to 145 kt for overall peak intensity, ACE and PDI went down a couple of units from 37.195 and 44.9445 to 35.53 and 42.42325, respectively.
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Re: WPAC: MARIA - Post-Tropical

#513 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Jul 23, 2018 8:13 pm

And just because I like data visualization, here are the differences between my analysis and operational data.

Image

Image
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Re: WPAC: MARIA - Post-Tropical

#514 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 23, 2018 8:31 pm

:uarrow: Pretty good.
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