WPAC: MARIA - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.4N
147.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 147.5E, APPROXIMATELY 250 NM
SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION
PREDOMINANTLY IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. A 020006Z 89GHZ GMI
MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED
WITH STRONG WESTERLY CONVERGENCE OCCURRING ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK
OF THE ELONGATED LLCC. A 011101Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS A DEFINED BUT
ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH 20 TO 25 KNOT EASTERLY WINDS AND 10 TO
15 KNOT WESTERLY WINDS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES GOOD DUAL
OUTFLOW WITH POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY A TUTT CELL LOCATED TO
THE NORTHEAST, AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY
INDICATE A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK TOWARD GUAM WITH GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION. GLOBAL MODELS ALSO SHOW VIGOROUS EASTERLY,
CONVERGENT FLOW, WHICH MAY FUEL SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND
GUSTY WINDS AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND TRACKS NEAR THE NORTHERN
MARIANA ISLANDS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.

[euro6208]

It's really popping...

[cycloneye]

12z GFS down to 919 mbs.

[cycloneye]

GFS tracks to South Korea.

[1900hurricane]

Per ATCF data, it looks like JTWC is upgrading to 10W.

10W TEN 180702 1800 9.9N 146.0E WPAC 25 1005

[cycloneye]

First warning by JTWC peaks at 95 kts but I guess as time goes by it will be higher.

[CyclonicFury]

Looks like the WPAC may finally get a long track typhoon. Haven't had many of these since 2016.

[cycloneye]

WDPN32 PGTW 022100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (TEN) WARNING
NR 01//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 10W (TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 237 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH IMPROVING LOW
LEVEL BANDING. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE
BASED ON A 021836Z 37GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH SHOWS THE
IMPROVED BANDING. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS IS BASED ON A
PGTW DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T1.0 (25 KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT TD 10W IS EXPERIENCING FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (10 TO 15 KNOTS). TD 10W IS ALSO DEVELOPING STRONG POLEWARD AND
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT (29 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS). TD 10W IS
TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) LOCATED TO THE NORTH.
A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING AND SETS THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY.
B. TD 10W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND THE
AFOREMENTIONED STR. AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR THE SEA OF
JAPAN WILL BEING TO WEAKEN THE STR AND ALLOW FOR TD 10W TO CONTINUE
TO TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST. THE GFS AND NAVGEM MODELS HAVE THE STR
REMAINING WEAK AFTER THE TROUGH PASSES, ALLOWING TD 10W TO TRACK MORE
TOWARDS THE NORTH. HOWEVER, THE ECMWF BUILDS THE STR AND ALLOWS FOR A
MORE WESTERLY TRACK. HOWEVER, ALL MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT TD 10W
WILL DEVELOP INTO A TYPHOON WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF RAPID
INTENSIFICATION AFTER TAU 24. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR
AGREEMENT. THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THE JTWC TRACK IS HEDGED TO THE WEST OF THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, SLIGHTLY TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, TD 10W WILL TRACK TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE STR. THE SAME TRACK DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS,
NAVGEM AND ECMWF REMAIN DURING THIS PERIOD OF THE TRACK. HOWEVER, ALL
MODELS STILL AGREE THAT TD 10W WILL BE AT TYPHOON STRENGTH. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL IN POOR AGREEMENT, ESPECIALLY REGARDING
TRACK. THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK WHICH REMAINS HEDGED TO THE WEST OF THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

EURO not as intense as previous run but looks like Okinawa yet again.

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ32 PGUM 022159
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W Advisory Number 1
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP102018
759 AM ChST Tue Jul 3 2018

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W FORMS SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM...

Changes with this advisory
--------------------------
None.

Watches and warnings
--------------------
A tropical storm watch is now in effect for Guam and Rota.

Tropical storm conditions, including damaging winds of 39 to 74 mph,
are possible within the next 48 hours.

Summary of 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...Information
----------------------------------------------
Location...10.1N 145.8E

About 135 miles northeast of Faraulep
About 240 miles south-southeast of Guam
About 280 miles south of Rota
About 340 miles south of Tinian
About 345 miles south of Saipan
About 525 miles east of Yap

Maximum sustained winds...30 mph
Present movement...northwest...310 degrees at 9 mph

Discussion and outlook
----------------------
At 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...the center of Tropical Depression 10W
was located near Latitude 10.1 North and Longitude 145.8 East.
Tropical Depression 10W is moving toward the northwest at 9 mph. It
is expected to maintain this general course with a slight decrease
in forward speed over the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are 30 mph. Tropical Depression 10W is
forecast to gradually intensify today and tonight, possibly becoming
a tropical storm Wednesday morning.

Next advisory
-------------
The National Weather Service will issue an intermediate advisory this
morning at 1100 AM ChST followed by the next scheduled advisory this
afternoon at 200 PM ChST.

$$

W. Aydlett

[euro6208]

HWRF joins in on making Maria quite strong...

[euro6208]

TXPQ21 KNES 022159
TCSWNP

A. 10W (NONAME)

B. 02/2030Z

C. 9.6N

D. 148.4E

E. FIVE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T1.5/1.5/D0.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR DATA. 0.35
CURVED BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 2.0. MET IS 1.5 AND PT IS 2.0. FT
IS BASED ON TRADITIONAL CONSTRAINTS LIMITING INTENSITY CHANGES OVER 6
HOURS. A MAJOR REPOSITION OF THE STORM CENTER RESULTS FROM USE OF BOTH
A 2009Z SSMIS PASS AND SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATING A THE CENTER IS
FURTHER EAST.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...HOSLEY

[euro6208]

EURO, GFS, JMA has Maria passing over Guam while NAVGEM and CMC goes over the Rota Channel. What a beautiful way to celebrate Independence Day....More rain.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track:

Location: 10.4°N 145.8°E
Maximum Winds: 25 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1005 mb

[cycloneye]

JMA upgrades to TD.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 10N 147E WEST SLOWLY.

[1900hurricane]

ASCAT shows a rather broad circulation. I can see why JTWC classified 10W as a 25 kt depression, but I wouldn't have been heartbroken if they hadn't classified it yet.

[cycloneye]

WDPN32 PGTW 030300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (TEN) WARNING
NR 02//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 10W (TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 205 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF CONVECTION
WHICH CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 030016Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE WHICH SHOWS A
BROAD CIRCULATION WHICH IS STILL CONSOLIDATING. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS IS BASED ON A FEW 25 KNOT WIND BARBS SEEN IN
THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT IMAGE AND A PGTW DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE
OF T1.0 (25 KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT TD 10W IS
EXPERIENCING FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 TO 15 KNOTS). TD 10W
IS ALSO DEVELOPING STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNELS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT (29 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS). TD 10W IS TRACKING
NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
LOCATED TO THE NORTH.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. HOWEVER, THE TRACK HAS
SHIFTED CLOSER TO GUAM WITH A LARGE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE
MODEL GUIDANCE.
B. TD 10W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND THE
AFOREMENTIONED STR. AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE
NORTHWEST WILL BEING TO WEAKEN THE STR AND ALLOW FOR TD 10W TO
CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST. TD 10W IS SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING.
HOWEVER, AFTER TAU 30 THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF RAPID
INTENSIFICATION. MODELS ARE INDICATING AN S-SHAPED TRACK TOWARDS
THE NORTHWEST. GFS FAVORS A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK WHILE THE ECMWF
ENSEMBLE FAVORS A MORE WESTERLY TRACK. OVERALL, DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT. THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THE JTWC TRACK IS STILL
HEDGED TO THE WEST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, SLIGHTLY TOWARDS
THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE SOLUTION.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, TD 10W WILL TRACK TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE STR. THE SAME TRACK DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
GFS, NAVGEM AND ECMWF REMAIN DURING THIS PERIOD OF THE TRACK.
HOWEVER, ALL MODELS STILL AGREE THAT TD 10W WILL BE AT TYPHOON
STRENGTH WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL IN POOR AGREEMENT, ESPECIALLY REGARDING
TRACK. THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH REMAINS HEDGED TO THE WEST OF THE MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ32 PGUM 030356
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W ADVISORY NUMBER 2
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP102018
200 PM ChST Tue Jul 3 2018

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W INTENSIFYING SLOWLY...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
A tropical storm warning is now in effect for Guam.

A tropical storm watch is now in effect for Tinian and Saipan.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A tropical storm warning is now in effect for Guam. Tropical storm
storm conditions, including damaging winds of 39 mph or more, are
expected within 24 hours.

A tropical storm watch is now in effect for Tinian and Saipan.
Tropical storm conditions, including damaging winds of 39 mph or
more, are possible within 24 hours.

A tropical storm watch remains in effect for Rota. Tropical storm
conditions are possible within 24 hours.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
------------------------------------------------
Location...10.6N 145.7E

About 160 miles north-northeast of Faraulep
About 205 miles south-southeast of Guam
About 245 miles south of Rota
About 305 miles south of Tinian
About 310 miles south of Saipan
About 520 miles east of Yap

Maximum sustained winds...30 mph
Present movement...north-northwest...340 degrees at 6 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...the center of Tropical Depression 10W
was located near Latitude 10.6 North and Longitude 145.7 East.
Tropical Depression 10W is moving north-northwest at 6 mph. It is
expected to turn slightly left to a more northwest heading tonight
and Wednesday, passing about 70 miles southwest of Guam late
Wednesday afternoon or evening.

Maximum sustained winds are 30 mph. Tropical Depression 10W is
forecast to gradually intensify today and tonight, and is forecast
to become a tropical storm on Wednesday.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Weather
Service at 5 PM this afternoon, followed by the next scheduled
advisory at 8 PM this evening.

$$

Middlebrooke

[euro6208]

Big relocation now brings the system through the Rota Channel.

[euro6208]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1013993849998454784