WPAC: MARIA - Post-Tropical

[1900hurricane]

Yeah, pretty clear that eyewall replacement is beginning. I have doubts that this one will complete prior to landfall considering the size of the outer eyewall and the dry air lurking about.

[cycloneye]

JTWC at 125 kts.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Maria has been at least a category 4 for 14 advisories already. For 84 hours straight, Maria has maintained its intensity. It's about to be the longest since Jelawat in 2012. I do think that the 125 kt estimates could be lowered, but within the category 4 range while the 110 kt advisory ought to be increased

[cycloneye]

@ExtremeStorms
All flights stopped to Ishigaki & Miyakojima 8 hrs ago. I flew from Pensacola, FL and it all comes down to wobbles & steering now. Expect CPA around 1am CDT, 3pm local. I'm on the middle island in the chain. #TyphoonMaria #miyakojima https://www.jma.go.jp/en/highresorad/

 https://twitter.com/ExtremeStorms/status/1016383486662344705

[cycloneye]

JMA at 100 kts.

TY 1808 (Maria)
Issued at 19:45 UTC, 9 July 2018

<Analysis at 19 UTC, 9 July>
Scale -
Intensity Very strong
Center position N23°30' (23.5°)
E128°30' (128.5°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 935 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 50 m/s (100 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70 m/s (140 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 190 km (100 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area NE 440 km (240 NM)
SW 280 km (150 NM)

<Estimate for 20 UTC, 9 July>
Scale -
Intensity Very strong
Center position N23°35' (23.6°)
E128°10' (128.2°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 935 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 50 m/s (100 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70 m/s (140 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 190 km (100 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area NE 440 km (240 NM)
SW 280 km (150 NM)

<Forecast for 06 UTC, 10 July>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N24°25' (24.4°)
E125°35' (125.6°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 940 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 50 m/s (95 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70 m/s (135 kt)
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 260 km (140 NM)

<Forecast for 18 UTC, 10 July>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N25°40' (25.7°)
E122°35' (122.6°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 945 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 45 m/s (90 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65 m/s (130 kt)
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 300 km (160 NM)

<Forecast for 18 UTC, 11 July>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N28°00' (28.0°)
E115°50' (115.8°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30 km/h (16 kt)
Central pressure 996 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)

<Forecast for 18 UTC, 12 July>
Intensity -
TD
Center position of probability circle N32°30' (32.5°)
E113°00' (113.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 25 km/h (13 kt)
Central pressure 998 hPa
Radius of probability circle 260 km (140 NM)

[1900hurricane]

JTWC is down to 115 kt for 18Z, and even that might be a little high. The core pressure gradient might be toast with the jumbo concentric eyewall.

[cycloneye]

[1900hurricane]

Maria has been at least a category 4 for 14 advisories already. For 84 hours straight, Maria has maintained its intensity. It's about to be the longest since Jelawat in 2012. I do think that the 125 kt estimates could be lowered, but within the category 4 range while the 110 kt advisory ought to be increased

I'm up to 4.25 C4 days as of 18Z July 9th, which does include JTWC's revision from 110 kt to 115 kt at 18Z July 5th, but I'd argue that Maria is not a category 4 right now, dropping the current total a quarter day. I am surprised to see that it is indeed the longest since Jelawat '12 though.

[1900hurricane]

Starting to come into view of the JMA radar.

[euro6208]

Looking better again.

[Twisted-core]

[Yellow Evan]

Given that in terms of raw organization this hasn't lost that much since its heyday, it's likely still a major hurricane. Eye has warmed recently if anything and a B ring may briefly return.

[galaxy401]

Depending on the shifts, this storm could land a direct hit on Taipei. Don't think they often get hit from the north or east.

[1900hurricane]

SATCON is hanging out around 105 kt at the moment. 105-110 kt seems like a reasonable intensity estimate to me.

[1900hurricane]

JTWC down to 110 kt.

10W MARIA 180710 0000 24.0N 127.2E WPAC 110 941

[Twisted-core]

https://imgur.com/9PApZ9m

Will be interesting to see landfall pressure. Thinking its now cat2 here atm.

[1900hurricane]

Concentric eyewalls are becoming apparent on visible imagery.

[euro6208]

Pressure down to 984.3 in Miyako.

[shah83]

Going to be one big surge monster.

[doomhaMwx]

Large moat between an inner and outer eyewall due to the ongoing ERC, clearly shown by radar.
Core will pass near or over Miyako island shortly.