WPAC: MARIA - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

What to expect for the Marianas.

000
WTPQ82 PGUM 040011
HLSPQ2

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL CYCLONE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
1011 AM CHST WED JUL 4 2018

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE MARIANAS...

.NEW INFORMATION...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ROTA.

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN SELECT
LOCATIONS AND COASTAL WATERS OF GUAM, THE NORTHERN MARIANAS AND
SURROUNDING WATERS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS, INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE, ARE EXPECTED
LATER TODAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ROTA. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS, INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE, ARE EXPECTED
LATER TODAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TINIAN AND SAIPAN.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 MPH OR
MORE...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 24 HOURS.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 7 AM CHST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 11.7N...LONGITUDE 146.2E. THIS WAS ABOUT 155 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. STORM MOTION WAS WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12
MPH. STORM INTENSITY WAS 30 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
AS CURRENTLY FORECAST...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W IS EXPECTED TO
PASS NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF GUAM EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS A
TROPICAL STORM. THIS FORECAST TRACK HAS SHIFTED FARTHER SOUTH THAN
PREVIOUS FORECASTS. A NORTHWARD SHIFT COULD STILL BRING 10W OVER
GUAM OR THROUGH THE ROTA CHANNEL.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PREPARE FOR INCREASING WINDS BY SECURING LOOSE OUTDOOR ITEMS AND
CANOPIES. FOLLOW INSTRUCTIONS FROM YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
OFFICIALS.

MARINERS SHOULD MAKE ALL NECESSARY PREPARATIONS TO RETURN TO PORT...
SEEK SAFE HARBOR...AND SECURE THEIR CRAFT. INITIATE PREPARATIONS
ACCORDING TO YOUR EMERGENCY PLAN FOR TROPICAL SYSTEMS. MONITOR
WEATHER BROADCASTS FOR CHANGES TO THE LATEST FORECAST AND LISTEN FOR
FURTHER STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN TIYAN AROUND 3 PM CHST...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

GUZ001-PMZ151-040900-
/O.CON.PGUM.TR.W.4010.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
GUAM-GUAM COASTAL WATERS-
1011 AM CHST WED JUL 4 2018

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FINAL PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
COMPLETED BEFORE CONDITIONS DETERIORATE. THE ONSET OF GUSTY WINDS
AND HEAVY RAINS CAN CAUSE OUTSIDE ACTIVITIES TO BECOME DANGEROUS.
SECURE LOOSE OUTDOOR OBJECTS WHICH CAN BE BLOWN AROUND. MARINERS
SHOULD SECURE SMALL CRAFT IMMEDIATELY.

&&

...WIND INFORMATION...
TROPICAL STORM WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE EXPECTED
BY THIS EVENING.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
COMBINED SEAS WILL BUILD TO BETWEEN 10 AND 13 FEET TODAY...RESULTING
IN SURF BETWEEN 9 AND 11 FEET. MINOR COASTAL INUNDATION IS POSSIBLE
ON WINDWARD BEACHES. ONCE 10W PASSES TO THE WEST OF GUAM...SOUTHWEST
SWELL WILL BUILD WITH SURF RISING ALONG SOUTH AND WEST FACING REEFS.
SURF WILL GENERATE LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.
FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...BUT
FLASH FLOOD WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED AS THE STORM
APPROACHES.

$$

GUZ002-PMZ152-040900-
/O.CON.PGUM.TR.A.4010.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
ROTA-ROTA COASTAL WATERS-
1011 AM CHST WED JUL 4 2018

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FINAL PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
COMPLETED BEFORE CONDITIONS DETERIORATE. THE ONSET OF GUSTY WINDS
AND HEAVY RAINS CAN CAUSE OUTSIDE ACTIVITIES TO BECOME DANGEROUS.
SECURE LOOSE OUTDOOR OBJECTS WHICH CAN BE BLOWN AROUND.

BOAT OWNERS AND CAPTAINS OF SMALL CRAFT SHOULD RUSH TO COMPLETION
THE SECURING OF THEIR CRAFT.

&&

...WIND INFORMATION...
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. EAST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON WILL
INCREASE TO 30 TO 40 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS TONIGHT.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
COMBINED SEAS WILL BUILD TO BETWEEN 8 AND 11 FEET TODAY... RESULTING
IN SURF BETWEEN 9 AND 11 FEET. MINOR COASTAL INUNDATION IS POSSIBLE.
ONCE 10W PASSES TO THE WEST OF THE ISLANDS...SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL
BUILD WITH SURF RISING ALONG SOUTH AND WEST FACING REEFS. SURF WILL
GENERATE LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.
FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...BUT
FLASH FLOOD WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED AS THE STORM
APPROACHES.

$$

GUZ003-004-PMZ153-154-040900-
/O.CON.PGUM.TR.A.4010.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
TINIAN-SAIPAN-TINIAN COASTAL WATERS-SAIPAN COASTAL WATERS-
1011 AM CHST WED JUL 4 2018

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE MADE AS SOON AS POSSIBLE, BEFORE CONDITIONS
DETERIORATE. KEEP INFORMED WHILE LISTENING FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
SECURE LOOSE OUTDOOR OBJECTS WHICH CAN BE BLOWN AROUND.

BOAT OWNERS AND CAPTAINS OF SMALL CRAFT NEED TO DETERMINE THE BEST
STRATEGY FOR SECURING THEIR CRAFT.

&&

...WIND INFORMATION...
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
EAST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON WILL INCREASE TO 25 TO
35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS TONIGHT. WINDS MAY REACH TROPICAL STORM
FORCE AT 30 TO 40 MPH IF 10W DEVIATES FARTHER NORTH THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
COMBINED SEAS WILL BUILD TO BETWEEN 8 AND 11 FEET TODAY... RESULTING
IN SURF BETWEEN 9 AND 11 FEET. COASTAL INUNDATION IS NOT LIKELY.
ONCE 10W PASSES TO THE WEST OF THE ISLANDS...SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL
BUILD WITH SURF RISING ALONG SOUTH AND WEST FACING REEFS. SURF WILL
GENERATE LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.
FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...BUT
FLASH FLOOD WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED AS THE STORM
APPROACHES.

$$

M. AYDLETT

[euro6208]

Can see the center on radar. Been a lull for the past hour the sun manage to peek though but all that will change soon.

[cycloneye]

Wow SuperTyphoon intensity by HWRF:

[euro6208]

Plenty of fuel for Maria to get going.

[euro6208]

I say it now. Maria has an extremely high chance to become the 1st cat 5 in the Northern Hemisphere, 2nd worldwide, and 1st cat 5 in the WPAC since 2016's December Nock-Ten.

[cycloneye]

JTWC 03:00 UTC:

[cycloneye]

Low confidence on track:

WDPN32 PGTW 040300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (TEN) WARNING
NR 06//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 10W (TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 145 NM
SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS TD 10W HAS CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE WITH FLARING
CONVECTION WHICH IS WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON
A 032350Z HIMAWARI VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE AND RADAR FIXES FROM PGTW
AND PGUM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T1.5 (25 KNOTS) FROM BOTH PGTW AND RJTD.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS TD 10W IS EXPERIENCING FAVORABLE TO
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15 TO 20 KNOTS). POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CONTINUES TO IMPROVE AS IT FEEDS INTO THE TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
TROUGH (TUTT) CELL, LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT, RANGING BETWEEN 30 AND
31 DEGREES CELSIUS. TD 10W IS BEING STEERED TO THE NORTHWEST BY THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. HOWEVER, HIGH UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS REGARDING THE TRACK OF TD 10W.
B. TD 10W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH TAU 48
AS IT TRACKS AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR LOCATED TO
THE NORTH. THERE IS STILL A WIDE VARIATION IN MODEL GUIDANCE
REGARDING STEERING FLOW FOR TD 10W, SPECIFICALLY THE POSITIONING AND
STRENGTH OF THE STR TO THE NORTH. THIS HIGH UNCERTAINTY IS EVIDENT IN
THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE TRACKERS WHICH STILL INDICATE A WIDE RANGE OF
SOLUTIONS RANGING FROM A STRAIGHT NORTHWEST TRACK TOWARDS TAIWAN TO A
NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTHWARD TRACK TOWARD IWAKUNI, JAPAN. ALL MODELS
DO AGREE THAT TD 10W WILL INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NORTHWESTWARD WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION AFTER TAU 30. THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK IS HEDGED JUST TO THE WEST OF THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS, FAVORING THE ECMWF SOLUTION. DUE TO THE WIDE RANGE IN
MODEL SOLUTIONS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, THE UNCERTAINTY IN MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS. THE
NAVGEM MODEL INDICATES THAT THE STR WILL BE WEAKER ALLOWING FOR A
MORE NORTHWARD TRACK. THE GFS INDICATES A WEAKENING IN THE STR
ALLOWING FOR A NORTHERLY TRACK FOLLOWED BY A BUILDING OF THE STR
LEADING TO A SHARP TURN TO THE WEST. THE ECMWF DETERMINISTIC TRACKER
FAVORS A MORE NORTHWESTERLY TRACK TOWARDS OKINAWA, JAPAN. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT TD 10W WILL BE AT TYPHOON STRENGTH FROM
TAU 72 THROUGH TAU 120. DUE TO THE WIDE RANGE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS
THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK FOR TD 10W. THEREFORE, THERE
IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//

[cycloneye]

SAB up to 2.0.

TXPQ21 KNES 040311
TCSWNP

A. 10W (NONAME)

B. 04/0230Z

C. 11.9N

D. 146.2E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T2.0/2.0/D0.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR
DATA. SYSTEM CHARACTERIZED BY 3.5/10 BANDING ON A LOG-10 SCALE. MET=2.0
PT=2.0 DT=2.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...FISHER

[euro6208]

000
WGMY60 PGUM 040629
FFAMY

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
429 PM ChST Wed Jul 4 2018

.TROPICAL STORM 10W WILL PASS THROUGH THE MARIANAS OVERNIGHT AND
ON THURSDAY. DUE TO ITS SLOW MOTION THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS GUAM AND
ROTA.

GUZ001>004-042200-
/O.NEW.PGUM.FF.A.0001.180704T0629Z-180706T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
GUAM-ROTA-TINIAN-SAIPAN-
429 PM ChST Wed Jul 4 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TIYAN HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR GUAM, ROTA, TINIAN AND SAIPAN.

* THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

* HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W MOVES
SLOWLY THROUGH THE MARIANAS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. RAINFALL
COULD LINGER INTO FRIDAY. RAIN FALL OF 4 TO 6 INCHES IS
POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS, ESPECIALLY FOR GUAM AND
ROTA.

* RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF THIS MAGNITUDE WOULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING,
ESPECIALLY IN FLOOD-PRONE AND LOW-LYING AREAS.|

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLASH FLOOD
WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP. FLASH FLOODING IS
A DANGEROUS SITUATION.

&&

$$

[cycloneye]

WDPN32 PGTW 040900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (TEN) WARNING
NR 07//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 93 NM
SOUTHEAST OF HAGATNA, GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS TD 10W HAS CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE WITH FLARING
CONVECTIVE RAINBANDS WHICH ARE WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY, THOUGH THE
LLCC IS PARTIALLY OBSCURED, AND RADAR FIXES FROM PGTW AND PGUM. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS IS BASED ON A 032311Z OSCAT PASS
SHOWING 30 KT WINDS WRAPPED AROUND THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTORS
OF THE SYSTEM, AND IS IN AGREEMENT WITH DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T2.0 (30 KTS) FROM PGTW, ABOVE THE RJTD ESTIMATE OF
T1.5 (25 KTS). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS TD 10W IS EXPERIENCING
FAVORABLE TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15 TO 20 KNOTS). THE
TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL LOCATED TO THE
NORTHEAST IS ENHANCING POLEWARD OUTFLOW, ALLOWING FOR FLARING DEEP
CONVECTION. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT, RANGING BETWEEN 30 AND 31 DEGREES CELSIUS. TD 10W IS
BEING STEERED TO THE NORTHWEST BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
LOCATED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. HOWEVER, HIGH UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS REGARDING THE TRACK OF TD 10W.
B. TD 10W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH TAU 48
AS IT TRACKS AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR LOCATED
TO THE NORTH. THERE IS STILL A WIDE VARIATION IN MODEL GUIDANCE
REGARDING STEERING FLOW FOR TD 10W, SPECIFICALLY THE POSITIONING
AND STRENGTH OF THE STR TO THE NORTH AS A WESTERLY MIDLATITUDE
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH AND ERODES THE TROUGH. ALL MODELS AGREE THAT
TD 10W WILL INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NORTHWESTWARD WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION AFTER TAU 24. THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK IS HEDGED JUST TO THE WEST OF THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS, FAVORING THE ECMWF SOLUTION. DUE TO THE WIDE RANGE IN
MODEL SOLUTIONS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES FURTHER, WITH A RANGE
OF LONG-TERM SOLUTIONS DEPICTING TD 10W PASSING SOMEWHERE BETWEEN
OKINAWA OR THE ISLAND OF HONSHU, JAPAN. THE NAVGEM MODEL INDICATES
THAT THE STR WILL NOT REBUILD AFTER THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH,
ALLOWING A CONSISTENTLY NORTHWESTERLY TRACK. THE GFS DEPICTS THE
WEAKENED STR AND A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK INITIALLY AS WELL, FOLLOWED
BY A BUILDING OF THE STR INTO THE AREA, LEADING TO A TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST. THE ECMWF DETERMINISTIC TRACKER FAVORS A MORE
NORTHWESTERLY TRACK TOWARDS OKINAWA, JAPAN. DUE TO THE WIDE RANGE
IN MODEL SOLUTIONS THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK FOR TD
10W. THEREFORE, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

Expecting deteriorating conditions overnight as showers and gusty winds builds over the islands. Tropical storm force winds beginning tomorrow morning and lasting though much of the day.

[NotoSans]

JMA up to CI2.0 at 12Z. Will be named 'Maria' soon.

[euro6208]

JTWC now up to 2.5...

TPPN11 PGTW 041225

A. TROPICAL STORM 10W (SE OF GUAM)

B. 04/1200Z

C. 12.58N

D. 145.54E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T2.5/2.5/D1.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. .50 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDS
2.5 DT. MET/PR 2.5. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


DAVIS

[euro6208]

000
FPMY70 PGUM 041114
NOWMY

Short Term Forecast
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
914 PM ChST Wed Jul 4 2018

GUZ001-PMZ151-041330-
Guam-Guam Coastal Waters-
914 PM ChST Wed Jul 4 2018

.NOW...
A band of heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Depression 10W
will move across Guam from east to west between now and 1130 PM.
Expect very heavy rain, which could cause flooding of roadways and
poor drainage areas. Wind gusts to 50 mph with this band are also
possible.

If you encounter heavy rain while driving, slow down.

$$

[1900hurricane]

10W is not a large system at the moment. Basically the entire system fits in the normal view of Guam's radar.



 https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1014488491063988225

[cycloneye]

Center looks more tight than before and that is a sign it will intensify shortly and maybe do the RI.

[euro6208]

EURO and GFS deepens Pre-Maria even more again...Anywhere from Okinawa to the koreas and mainland Japan is it's next target.

[euro6208]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 04 JUL 2018 Time : 121000 UTC
Lat : 12:57:35 N Lon : 145:39:42 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.1 / 996.8mb/ 47.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.1 3.2 3.6

Center Temp : -33.6C Cloud Region Temp : -71.2C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Subtropical Adjustment : OFF

Extratropical Adjustment : OFF

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : N/A
- Environmental MSLP : 1007mb

Satellite Name : HIM-8
Satellite Viewing Angle : 16.2 degrees

****************************************************

[euro6208]

Has that look and that banding is just crazy. For a WPAC system, it is quite small...Looks like a mid grade TS tbh.

[euro6208]

10W TEN 180704 1200 12.6N 145.2E WPAC 35 996

Upgraded to a TS.