WPAC: MARIA - Post-Tropical

[Alyono]

Also, this is going to absolutely blast the Miyako Islands

[1900hurricane]

I'm not sure the outflow is as big an issue as JTWC thinks. While dual outflow channels is hard to beat, one big outflow channel with good radial outflow can be pretty good too. This is actually a common look with many of the stronger Atlantic Cape Verde Hurricanes, including Hurricane Irma from last year.





TUTT and the subsidence from it may be an issue down the road though, and we've seen some of that subsidence affect Maria already a few times, particularly on the leading side of the system.

[NotoSans]

Whether Maria will bring significant impacts to eastern China depends on whether it will make landfall over Taiwan. Typhoons are likely to suddenly track westward, making landfall over Taiwan, before resuming its original trajectory (Typhoon Soulik in 2013 would be a recent example). Although deterministic forecasts by the major numerical models do not support such scenario at the moment, it is still possible with a number of Euro ensemble members indicating such scenario as well. Typhoons making landfall over Taiwan will weaken significantly due to the mountainous terrains, meaning that impacts brought to eastern China will be far less severe.

[1900hurricane]

18Z JTWC intensity remains 140 kt.

10W MARIA 180708 1800 21.1N 135.1E WPAC 140 915

[cycloneye]

JMA:

TY 1808 (Maria)
Issued at 18:45 UTC, 8 July 2018

<Analysis at 18 UTC, 8 July>
Scale -
Intensity Violent
Center position N21°05' (21.1°)
E135°05' (135.1°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 25 km/h (14 kt)
Central pressure 915 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 55 m/s (105 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 75 m/s (150 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 150 km (80 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area NE 440 km (240 NM)
SW 280 km (150 NM)

<Forecast for 06 UTC, 9 July>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N22°05' (22.1°)
E132°05' (132.1°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 920 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 50 m/s (100 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70 m/s (140 kt)
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 220 km (120 NM)

<Forecast for 18 UTC, 9 July>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N23°05' (23.1°)
E128°55' (128.9°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30 km/h (16 kt)
Central pressure 925 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 50 m/s (100 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70 m/s (140 kt)
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 260 km (140 NM)

<Forecast for 18 UTC, 10 July>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N25°30' (25.5°)
E122°35' (122.6°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30 km/h (16 kt)
Central pressure 945 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 45 m/s (85 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (120 kt)
Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 330 km (180 NM)

<Forecast for 18 UTC, 11 July>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N28°20' (28.3°)
E115°35' (115.6°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30 km/h (17 kt)
Central pressure 990 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
Radius of probability circle 260 km (140 NM)

[1900hurricane]

Microwave presentation is pretty ok.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Extent of deep convection to the west of the eye has retreated today, probably a symptom of dry air beginning to wrap around the storm. It's probably down to 135-140kt compared to what should have been a peak of 145-150kt. Upper-level winds remain favorable, so only slow weakening is likely.

[cycloneye]

JTWC at 140 kts.

[1900hurricane]

 https://twitter.com/dost_pagasa/status/1016067005022068737

[1900hurricane]

Extent of deep convection to the west of the eye has retreated today, probably a symptom of dry air beginning to wrap around the storm. It's probably down to 135-140kt compared to what should have been a peak of 145-150kt. Upper-level winds remain favorable, so only slow weakening is likely.

Normally, I'd surefire agree with this, but I actually see some mixed signals right now. The NW side is pretty clearly scrunched up because of battling subsidence (12Z ROMD sounding), but the coldest ring of cloudtops has cooled to CMG while the eye has gradually warmed to just about 20ºC now. This wouldn't matter doing traditional Dvorak analysis because of width requirements, but all microwave estimates have slightly increased wrt 12 hours ago. In fact, the most recent F16 pass I posted above has the highest SSMIS score in Maria's lifetime. Considering some of these mixed signals, I probably would have done exactly as they did and maintain intensity from the previous analysis, which in this case was 140 kt. That's just how I see it for now though. It'll be interesting to see how Maria evolves from here, and how the agencies accordingly react.

 https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1016077952390451200

[euro6208]

Track now goes between 7 million Fuzhou to the north or 9 million Wenzhou to the south. This area is extremely populated.

[HurricaneEnzo]

Looks more impressive than 2017's Maria and Irma.

Irma for example at peak...



WPAC Maria...

No it really isn't. There are plenty of images far more impressive of Irma at 'peak' than what you posted. You just posted the image that fits your tired agenda.

[euro6208]

Looks more impressive than 2017's Maria and Irma.

Irma for example at peak...

WPAC Maria...

No it really isn't. There are plenty of images far more impressive of Irma at 'peak' than what you posted. You just posted the image that fits your tired agenda.

Or should i say...when it was classified as a 5 with 150-155 knots...?

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Looks more impressive than 2017's Maria and Irma.

Irma for example at peak...

WPAC Maria...

No it really isn't. There are plenty of images far more impressive of Irma at 'peak' than what you posted. You just posted the image that fits your tired agenda.

Or should i say...when it was classified as a 5 with 150-155 knots...?

I'm not sure why your hostility is consistently directed at the Atlantic, where we have recon and accurate assessments, instead of the JTWC, who constantly underestimates storms.

[1900hurricane]

It might be worth keeping an eye on how the outer bands develop from here. Systems have been known to try and throw up jumbo outer eyewalls in this part of the basin.

[cycloneye]

Very impressive closeup of eye.

@DanLindsey77
Seeing eye to eye with Super Typhoon #Maria as the sun rises on 9 July - #Himawari - I think this may be even prettier than yesterday's...the three-dimensional view of the inside of the eyewall is awesome

 https://twitter.com/DanLindsey77/status/1016101772115496960

[mrbagyo]

It might be worth keeping an eye on how the outer bands develop from here. Systems have been known to try and throw up jumbo outer eyewalls in this part of the basin.

Whoa, that's indeed pretty jumbo. I wonder if Maria could evolve into a Longwang / Dujuan type typhoon on approach to Taiwan.

[euro6208]

No it really isn't. There are plenty of images far more impressive of Irma at 'peak' than what you posted. You just posted the image that fits your tired agenda.

Or should i say...when it was classified as a 5 with 150-155 knots...?

I'm not sure why your hostility is consistently directed at the Atlantic, where we have recon and accurate assessments, instead of the JTWC, who constantly underestimates storms.

No hostility. I’m just comparing what would have been if recon was still active vs what dvorak and their followers say.

[1900hurricane]

Looks like an easy T7.0 for 00Z.



Also, while Maria was very Maria '17 like earlier in its life, the system I'm getting vibes from now is actually Irma '17.

[aperson]

All of these oscillations around a sort of loosely T7.0 base state make me really, really want recon on that thing.