EPAC: FABIO - Post-Tropical

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Re: EPAC: FABIO - Hurricane

#201 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Jul 02, 2018 9:46 pm

ADT Raws just shot up to 5.6.
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Re: EPAC: FABIO - Hurricane

#202 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Jul 02, 2018 9:51 pm

Image

Closing in on at T6.0 at this rate. Looks like it's in the process of RI.
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Re: EPAC: FABIO - Hurricane

#203 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Jul 02, 2018 9:57 pm

Yellow Evan wrote::uarrow: This is functioning like a messy WPAC system except it doesn't have time to sit there and screw around. This will end up around 85-90 knots.


Okay maybe not - this isn't screwing around anymore.
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Re: EPAC: FABIO - Hurricane

#204 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Jul 02, 2018 10:33 pm

 
Current Intensity Analysis 
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 03 JUL 2018 Time : 023000 UTC
Lat : 14:26:59 N Lon : 112:54:00 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.5 / 976.5mb/ 77.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.5 5.7 5.9
Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km
Center Temp : -31.9C
Cloud Region Temp : -69.5C
Scene Type : EYE
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Re: EPAC: FABIO - Hurricane

#205 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 02, 2018 10:37 pm

Finnally,we have a more clear eye and now let's see if some RI occurs before it reach the sst gradient.

Image
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Re: EPAC: FABIO - Hurricane

#206 Postby aperson » Mon Jul 02, 2018 11:59 pm

cycloneye wrote:Finnally,we have a more clear eye and now let's see if some RI occurs before it reach the sst gradient.


Looks like it punched off a piece of vort from the eye and has to put it back together before convection can wrap around.

Image
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Re: EPAC: FABIO - Hurricane

#207 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Jul 03, 2018 12:59 am

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.6 / 954.9mb/104.6kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.6 5.9 5.9
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Re: EPAC: FABIO - Hurricane

#208 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Jul 03, 2018 1:04 am

Good news is that Fabio has finally developed a decent eyewall:

Image

Edit: Nevermind, looks like it's open again.

Image
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Re: EPAC: FABIO - Hurricane

#209 Postby hurricanes1234 » Tue Jul 03, 2018 1:18 am

Until it can close off and maintain a genuine, solid eyewall, it won't be going anywhere.

Let's see what kind of structure we'll wake up to.
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Re: EPAC: FABIO - Hurricane

#210 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 03, 2018 4:55 am

Hurricane Fabio Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072018
300 AM MDT Tue Jul 03 2018

The eye has been observed intermittently on conventional imagery
during the past few hours, and the convection surrounding the
eye has not changed much. In fact, Dvorak T-numbers from both TAFB
and SAB are the same as 6 hours ago, so we are keeping the same
initial intensity of 80 kt in this advisory.

Although Fabio has not intensified since the last advisory, all the
factors are favorable for the hurricane to do so. Consequently, the
NHC forecast still shows a peak intensity of 100 kt within the next
24 hours. After that time, a large portion of the circulation will
be affected by cooler waters, and gradual weakening should begin.
None of the models bring Fabio to 100 kt any more in the 06 UTC run,
but they all agree in a weakening trend after 24 hours.

Fabio is moving toward the west-northwest or 295 degrees at 13 kt.
Since the steering pattern is well established, the track forecast
is relatively straightforward. The hurricane is expected to
continue moving toward the west-northwest during the next several
days steered by the flow around a persistent subtropical ridge to
the north. The NHC forecast is in the middle of the very tightly
packed guidance envelope, and also leaning toward the HFIP Corrected
Consensus HCCA model.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0900Z 15.1N 114.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 03/1800Z 15.8N 116.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 04/0600Z 16.9N 118.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 04/1800Z 18.2N 121.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 05/0600Z 19.7N 123.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 06/0600Z 23.0N 128.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 07/0600Z 25.8N 132.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 08/0600Z 27.0N 136.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Avila
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Re: EPAC: FABIO - Hurricane

#211 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Jul 03, 2018 5:45 am

It's trying again:

Image
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Re: EPAC: FABIO - Hurricane

#212 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 03, 2018 7:28 am

SAB up to 4.5.

TXPZ27 KNES 031216
TCSENP

A. 07E (FABIO)

B. 03/1200Z

C. 15.1N

D. 114.9W

E. ONE/GOES-W

F. T4.5/4.5/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS...OW EYE IS SURROUNDED BY LG AND EMBEDDED IN MG RESULTING
IN A DT OF 4.5 WITH NO EYE ADJUSTMENT. MET AND PT ARE ALSO 4.5. FT IS
BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...TURK
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Re: EPAC: FABIO - Hurricane

#213 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 03, 2018 7:55 am

Up to 90 kts

EP, 07, 2018070312, , BEST, 0, 152N, 1150W, 90, 969, HU
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Re: EPAC: FABIO - Hurricane

#214 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 03, 2018 9:45 am

Hurricane Fabio Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072018
800 AM PDT Tue Jul 03 2018

The structure of Fabio has improved since the issuance of the
previous advisory. Just prior to 1200 UTC a ring of -70C and colder
cloud tops wrapped entirely around the warming eye, and an AMSR-2
pass around 0900 UTC indicated that the inner-core convection had
continued to contract and become more symmetric. Since that time,
the eyewall structure has become less clear on IR imagery, and its
unclear if this is a temporary fluctuation or an indication that
Fabio is already nearing its peak. The initial intensity has been
raised to 90 kt based on a blend of objective and subjective Dvorak
estimates from TAFB, SAB, and the UW-CIMSS ADT.

Fabio is beginning to run out of time for further intensification.
The hurricane should remain within a warm SST, low wind shear
environment for the next 12 to 24 hours. At least some modest
strengthening seems possible over that time, and Fabio is still
forecast to become a major hurricane later today, however it is
worth noting that all of the intensity guidance indicates that Fabio
may already be near its peak intensity. Beginning tomorrow, the
hurricane will be moving over much cooler SSTs and into a more
stable thermodynamic environment. Steady to rapid weakening is
inevitable, eventually causing Fabio to degenerate into a remnant
low by the end of the forecast period. The new NHC intensity
forecast is at the high end of the intensity guidance at 12 h, but
very close to the IVCN and HCCA consensus aids after that.

The hurricane has continued to move toward the west-northwest at
around 13 kt. All of the dynamical models agree that Fabio will
continue moving west-northwestward to northwestward along the
southern periphery of a mid-level ridge to the north for the next
several days. Very little change has been made to the official
track forecast which remains near the various multi-model consensus
track aids, near the middle of the tightly-clustered guidance
envelope through day 5.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/1500Z 15.2N 115.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 04/0000Z 16.1N 117.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 04/1200Z 17.2N 120.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 05/0000Z 18.6N 122.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 05/1200Z 20.2N 124.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 06/1200Z 23.1N 129.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 07/1200Z 25.5N 133.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 08/1200Z 27.0N 137.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
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Re: EPAC: FABIO - Hurricane

#215 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Jul 03, 2018 12:52 pm

Image

Not thick enough LG with a sudden MG spot.
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Re: EPAC: FABIO - Hurricane

#216 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 03, 2018 1:32 pm

SAB up to 5.0

TXPZ27 KNES 031817
TCSENP

A. 07E (FABIO)

B. 03/1800Z

C. 15.6N

D. 115.9W

E. ONE/GOES-W

F. T5.0/5.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...OW EYE IS EMBEDDED IN AND SURROUNDED BY LG RESULTING IN A DT
OF 5.0 WITH NO EYE ADJUSTMENT. MET AND PT ARE ALSO 5.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...TURK
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Re: EPAC: FABIO - Hurricane

#217 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 03, 2018 1:52 pm

18z Best Track up to 95 kts.

EP, 07, 2018070318, , BEST, 0, 155N, 1159W, 95, 964, HU
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Re: EPAC: FABIO - Hurricane

#218 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Jul 03, 2018 2:42 pm

cycloneye wrote:18z Best Track up to 95 kts.

EP, 07, 2018070318, , BEST, 0, 155N, 1159W, 95, 964, HU


I would just up it to Cat.3. Blend between ADT and SAB would support it.
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Re: EPAC: FABIO - Hurricane

#219 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Jul 03, 2018 3:00 pm

Image

Larger eye clearing out. Doing better today. Still in contention for Cat.4. Probably another 12 hours left before weakening begins.
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Re: EPAC: FABIO - Hurricane

#220 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 03, 2018 3:32 pm

Hurricane Fabio Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072018
200 PM PDT Tue Jul 03 2018

The overall satellite presentation of Fabio has continued to
improve today. The eye has become better defined and warmed while
the ring of cold clouds tops has wrapped more around the center
since the previous advisory. Subjective Dvorak T-numbers from TAFB
and SAB are consensus T5.0s while objective Dvorak T-numbers from
UW-CIMSS are T5.9. Bases on these data, the initial intensity has
been increased to 95 kt. Fabio has a little time left over warm
waters in which to reach major hurricane status, but by early
Wednesday the hurricane will be moving over cooler SSTs and into
less favorable thermodynamic conditions, which should cause
the hurricane to begin to weaken. A more rapid rate of filling is
forecast to begin by late Wednesday and Fabio is forecast to weaken
to a tropical storm within 48 h, and degenerate into a remnant low
by day 4. The NHC intensity forecast is in good agreement with the
IVCN and HCCA consensus aids.

Fabio is moving west-northwestward around 13 kt. There has been no
change to the track forecast reasoning since the previous advisory.
The hurricane should move west-northwestward to northwestward
around the southwestern portion of a mid-level ridge that extends
westward from northern Mexico. The track guidance is in excellent
agreement and the new NHC foreast is essentially an update of the
previous advisory.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/2100Z 15.8N 116.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 16.5N 118.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 04/1800Z 17.7N 120.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 05/0600Z 19.3N 123.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 05/1800Z 20.9N 125.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 06/1800Z 23.8N 130.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 07/1800Z 26.0N 134.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 08/1800Z 27.5N 137.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown
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