EPAC: FABIO - Post-Tropical

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Re: EPAC: FABIO - Tropical Storm

#241 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 05, 2018 5:03 am

Tropical Storm Fabio Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072018
200 AM PDT Thu Jul 05 2018

Fabio is moving over 23 degree C waters. Consequently, the cloud
pattern has deteriorated significantly during the past several
hours. The convection has decreased in both intensity and in area
coverage, and there is no longer an inner core. Dvorak estimates
from all agencies support to lower the intensity to 60 kt at this
time. Since Fabio is heading toward much colder waters, rapid
weakening is anticipated, and the cyclone is forecast to become a
remnant low in about 36 hours, if not sooner.

Fabio is moving toward the northwest or 305 degrees at 14 kt
steered by the persistent subtropical ridge to the north. As a
shallow cyclone, Fabio could turn more to the west-northwest
steered by the low-level flow. The NHC forecast continues to be
in the middle of the tight guidance envelope bounded by the
multi-model consensus, and is very close to the HFIP Corrected
Consensus HCCA.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0900Z 19.3N 123.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 05/1800Z 20.4N 125.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 06/0600Z 21.8N 128.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 06/1800Z 23.0N 130.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 07/0600Z 24.0N 132.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 08/0600Z 25.5N 137.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 09/0600Z 26.0N 140.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila
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Re: EPAC: FABIO - Tropical Storm

#242 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 05, 2018 9:38 am

Tropical Storm Fabio Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072018
800 AM PDT Thu Jul 05 2018

Fabio's convective structure has continued to degrade over the past
several hours, and convective banding has become very limited.
Satellite classifications from TAFB and SAB have decreased
accordingly and the initial intensity has been set at 55 kt based on
a blend of the subjective data-T and CI numbers. Fabio is moving
over 23 to 24 deg C waters, and these cold waters will cause the
cyclone to continue weakening for the next day or so until it
eventually becomes a remnant low by the weekend. The new intensity
forecast is essentially an update of the previous one and closely
follows the multi-model consensus.

The initial motion estimate is 305/15. An SSMIS overpass at 1120 UTC
indicated that the center of Fabio was located a little to the
northwest of the previous estimate. For that reason, the new NHC
track forecast is a little faster than the previous advisory for the
first 36 hours, but is otherwise very similar. Fabio will continue
on a west-northwest to northwest heading for the next 24-36 hours
while it remains a tropical cyclone. Beyond that time, the remnants
of Fabio will slow down and be steered more west-northwestward to
westward by the low-level trade wind flow. All of the dynamical
models remain in very good agreement on the track of Fabio, and the
NHC forecast is still close to HCCA and TVCN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/1500Z 20.2N 125.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 21.3N 127.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 06/1200Z 22.5N 129.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 07/0000Z 23.5N 131.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 07/1200Z 24.2N 134.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 08/1200Z 25.4N 138.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 09/1200Z 26.0N 141.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
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Re: EPAC: FABIO - Tropical Storm

#243 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 05, 2018 9:53 pm

Tropical Storm Fabio Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072018
800 PM PDT Thu Jul 05 2018

The satellite appearance of Fabio has continued to degrade, as the
system is now comprised mostly of a swirl of low- to mid-level
clouds with disorganized convection in the southeastern quadrant.
The initial intensity is reduced to 35 kt based on a blend of
various satellite intensity estimates. The center of Fabio is
approaching sea-surface temperatures near 20C and this should cause
continued weakening, with the convection completely dissipating in
the next 12-24 h if not sooner. The resulting remnant low is
expected to persist through 96 h before degenerating into a trough.

The initial motion is 295/13. Fabio or its remnants should move
generally west-northwestward during the next 36-48 h toward a
weakness in the subtropical ridge. After that time, the system
should turn more westward as the low-level tradewind flow becomes
the dominant steering mechanism. The new forecast track is an
update of the previous track that lies close to the consensus
models.

Although Fabio is weakening, swells generated by the cyclone will
affect the coasts of southern California and the Baja California
Peninsula for the next day or so.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0300Z 21.2N 128.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 06/1200Z 22.1N 129.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 07/0000Z 23.1N 132.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 07/1200Z 23.8N 134.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 08/0000Z 24.3N 136.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 09/0000Z 25.0N 140.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 10/0000Z 26.0N 143.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: EPAC: FABIO - Tropical Storm

#244 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 06, 2018 5:08 am

Tropical Storm Fabio Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072018
200 AM PDT Fri Jul 06 2018

The remaining deep convection associated with Fabio has dissipated
overnight and the system now consists of a swirl of low- to
mid-level clouds. Although the convection has waned, a 0518 UTC
ASCAT pass indicated a large area of 30-35 kt winds primarily over
the northern portion of the circulation so the initial intensity
remains 35 kt for this advisory. The cyclone will be moving over
SSTs below 20C very soon and into a more stable environment. As a
result, organized deep convection is not likely to redevelop and
the cyclone is forecast to become a remnant low later today and
continue to gradually spin down over the next 2-3 days. The global
models indicate that the remnant low will degenerate into a trough
of low pressure in a little more than 3 days, and this is reflected
in the NHC forecast.

The ASCAT pass suggests that Fabio has moved more westward than
west-northwestward overnight, but a general west-northwestward
motion is anticipated over the next day or so. As the remnant low
weakens it should turn more toward the west before dissipation
occurs. The new NHC forecast is slightly south of the previous
official forecast, and is close to the various consensus aids.

Although Fabio is weakening, swells generated by the cyclone will
affect the coasts of southern California and the Baja California
Peninsula for the next day or so.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0900Z 21.5N 129.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 06/1800Z 22.3N 130.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 07/0600Z 23.0N 133.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 07/1800Z 23.6N 135.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 08/0600Z 24.0N 137.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 09/0600Z 25.0N 140.8W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 10/0600Z...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: EPAC: FABIO - Tropical Storm

#245 Postby galaxy401 » Fri Jul 06, 2018 11:50 am

RIP Fabio.

Post-Tropical Cyclone Fabio Discussion Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072018
800 AM PDT Fri Jul 06 2018

The convection associated with Fabio has vanished, and the cyclone
now consists of an elongated swirl of low clouds. The low is
probably producing 30 kt winds, but those winds will gradually
subside. The low is forecast to move west-northwestward and then
westward and degenerate into a trough of low pressure in a day or
two.

Swells previously generated by the cyclone will continue to affect
the coasts of southern California and the Baja California Peninsula
for the next day or so.

This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on
Fabio.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/1500Z 22.0N 130.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 07/0000Z 23.0N 132.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 07/1200Z 23.5N 134.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 08/0000Z 24.0N 136.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila
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Got my eyes on moving right into Hurricane Alley: Florida.

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Re: EPAC: FABIO - Post-Tropical

#246 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 06, 2018 1:37 pm

Post-Tropical Cyclone Fabio Discussion Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072018
800 AM PDT Fri Jul 06 2018

The convection associated with Fabio has vanished, and the cyclone
now consists of an elongated swirl of low clouds. The low is
probably producing 30 kt winds, but those winds will gradually
subside. The low is forecast to move west-northwestward and then
westward and degenerate into a trough of low pressure in a day or
two.

Swells previously generated by the cyclone will continue to affect
the coasts of southern California and the Baja California Peninsula
for the next day or so.

This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on
Fabio.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/1500Z 22.0N 130.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 07/0000Z 23.0N 132.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 07/1200Z 23.5N 134.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 08/0000Z 24.0N 136.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila
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