EPAC: FABIO - Post-Tropical

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Re: EPAC: FABIO - Tropical Storm

#161 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Jul 01, 2018 10:18 pm

cycloneye wrote:This is very interesting about the lightning.

@GigEm12_Steph
#Fabio has a classic lightning signature in the outer rainbands often associated with intensification. ~70% of EastPac TSs with such azimuthally-extensive lightning intensify 24 h later. Official forecast calls for rapid intensification.


[tweet]https://twitter.com/GigEm12_Steph/status/1013599212905418753[tweet]

@GigEm12_Steph
Here's an example of a similar pattern in Rick (2009; East Pacific). Rick intensified from 60 kt to 155 kt in the span of 48 h, and had rather persistent outer rainband lightning throughout that span. [images from my dissertation]


[tweet]https://twitter.com/GigEm12_Steph/status/1013605014877691904[weet]


Nice catch. It would be nuts if Fabio reached Rick 2009 levels.
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Re: EPAC: FABIO - Tropical Storm

#162 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Jul 01, 2018 10:33 pm

Rick 09 similarly was large sized, and went from little convection to a CDO like Fabio at the same intensity.

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Re: EPAC: FABIO - Tropical Storm

#163 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Jul 01, 2018 10:40 pm

The resemblance is striking... :uarrow:
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Re: EPAC: FABIO - Tropical Storm

#164 Postby Chris90 » Sun Jul 01, 2018 11:30 pm

The resemblance really is quite similar. The next 48 hours will be very interesting. The only thing holding me back from making a higher intensity guess is the fact that the models keep flipping back and forth somewhat. It would be quite a feat though if Fabio manages to reach Rick levels of intensity at the beginning of July. Rick also provided some beautiful satellite images at peak intensity, so I would love to see something similar from Fabio.
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Re: EPAC: FABIO - Tropical Storm

#165 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Jul 02, 2018 1:43 am

EP, 07, 201807020600, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1240N, 10990W, , 2, 55, 2, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , E, SAB, JV, IM, 3, 3535 /////, , , GOES16, LLCC, T, DT=3.5 BO CBND MET=4.0 PT=4.0 FTBO DT
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Re: EPAC: FABIO - Tropical Storm

#166 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Jul 02, 2018 1:49 am

:uarrow: Shouldn't it be 4.0 on both ADT and SAB? Or there's constraints?
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Re: EPAC: FABIO - Tropical Storm

#167 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Jul 02, 2018 1:52 am

Either it has ingested more dry air or its clearing out a large eye:

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Re: EPAC: FABIO - Tropical Storm

#168 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Jul 02, 2018 2:11 am

00z GFS less enthusiastic now, barely peaks it @ cat.4.

00z UKMET weaker.

00z Euro same old.
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Re: EPAC: FABIO - Tropical Storm

#169 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 02, 2018 5:00 am

Tropical Storm Fabio Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072018
300 AM MDT Mon Jul 02 2018

Fabio appears to have taken a brief pause in its intensification.
A well-defined convective band wraps from the southeast around to
the west of the low-level center, but 89-GHz microwave imagery and
scatterometer data indicate that the cyclone has not yet developed
a tight inner core. In fact, the 05Z ASCAT data still showed a
radius of maximum winds around 40 n mi, and the wind field is
quite asymmetric with not many tropical-storm-force wind vectors in
the southwestern quadrant. With Dvorak intensity estimates of
T4.0/65 kt from TAFB and T3.5/55 kt from SAB, as well as SATCON
estimates of 55-60 kt, Fabio's initial intensity remains 60 kt for
this advisory.

Despite the broad wind field noted in scatterometer data, the last
few infrared satellite images suggest that some tightening of the
circulation may be starting. Once a tight inner core develops,
rapid intensification will likely occur with the cyclone located in
an environment of low shear and over water with high oceanic heat
content. Fabio is expected to peak in intensity in 36-48 hours
as a major hurricane, just before it reaches the 26C SST isotherm.
After 48 hours, steady weakening is expected over cooler waters,
with the cyclone likely becoming post tropical by day 5. The
updated NHC intensity forecast closely follows the HCCA and Florida
State Superensemble solutions, and it not much different from the
previous forecast.

Scatterometer fixes suggest that Fabio has slowed down, at least
temporarily, and turned west with an initial motion of 280/9 kt. A
weakness in the subtropical ridge over northwestern Mexico should
allow the cyclone to turn back to the west-northwest soon, with
acceleration expected through 72 hours as the ridge builds westward
over the Pacific. There is very little spread among the track
guidance, and the official track forecast remains closest to HCCA
and the TVCE multi-model consensus. This new forecast is nearly on
top of the previous one.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0900Z 12.5N 110.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 02/1800Z 13.1N 111.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 03/0600Z 14.0N 114.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 03/1800Z 15.0N 116.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 04/0600Z 16.1N 119.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 05/0600Z 18.6N 124.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 06/0600Z 21.5N 129.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 07/0600Z 24.5N 134.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Berg
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Re: EPAC: FABIO - Tropical Storm

#170 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 02, 2018 5:25 am

@GigEm12_Steph
Large #lightning burst occurred near #Fabio’s center this morning. My recent work shows location relative to RMW is important for determining intensity change impact. Per NHC forecast discussion, RMW is large (~75 km), thus intensification is likely to continue.


 https://twitter.com/GigEm12_Steph/status/1013722862149087233




@GigEm12_Steph
Why is convection inside the RMW favorable for intensification? Thermodynamically, diabatic heating is confined due to high inertial stability. Dynamically, absolute angular momentum is advected inward, leading to RMW contraction.


 https://twitter.com/GigEm12_Steph/status/1013725332741001217


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Re: EPAC: FABIO - Tropical Storm

#171 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Jul 02, 2018 7:05 am

Somewhat unrelated, but it's nice to see Dr. Stevenson's tweets featured here. She and I were classmates for a few courses several years ago.
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Re: EPAC: FABIO - Tropical Storm

#172 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 02, 2018 8:02 am

Up to Hurricane.

EP, 07, 2018070212, , BEST, 0, 128N, 1104W, 65, 989, HU
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Re: EPAC: FABIO - Tropical Storm

#173 Postby SouthDadeFish » Mon Jul 02, 2018 8:14 am

Fabio is a great case study of why forecasting TC intensity is so challenging. A TC may be located in a presumably very favorable environment, but if the inner-core convective structure is not well-organized, then the TC is unlikely to RI. This is why we see so many RI false alarms forecast by the statistical guidance.
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Re: EPAC: FABIO - Tropical Storm

#174 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 02, 2018 8:24 am

Let's have this discussion from this moment because Fabio definitly has not met the expectations that were set as it was expected it would be a major hurricane (Cat 3 or 4) Time is running out as it only has roughly 24-36 hours of warm waters.

Which of the following factors were the most detrimental to not let Fabio do the Rapid Intensification proccess that was expected and be a formidable hurricane?

1-Dry air intrusions
2-Delayed development to Tropical Depression (Less time on warm waters)
3-Northern shear more than expected
4-Other reasons
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Re: EPAC: FABIO - Tropical Storm

#175 Postby SouthDadeFish » Mon Jul 02, 2018 9:24 am

cycloneye wrote:Let's have this discussion from this moment because Fabio definitly has not met the expectations that were set as it was expected it would be a major hurricane (Cat 3 or 4) Time is running out as it only has roughly 24-36 hours of warm waters.

Which of the following factors were the most detrimental to not let Fabio do the Rapid Intensification proccess that was expected and be a formidable hurricane?

1-Dry air intrusions
2-Delayed development to Tropical Depression (Less time on warm waters)
3-Northern shear more than expected
4-Other reasons


Great questions! I was wondering the same, and just so happened to share my thoughts on Twitter, so I will post them here too :) The initial tweet I included here is part of a mini thread I wrote.

 https://twitter.com/MikeFischerWx/status/1013787543744196609




Tropical Storm #Fabio has not yet rapidly intensified as initially forecast. A 37-GHz WindSat pass from nearly 24-h ago shows most of the convection was located SW of the TC center. Such an asymmetric and displaced convective pattern is not favorable for RI.

CIMSS analyses at this time show shear was out of the NE. Thus, most of the convection was located downshear of the TC center. Although deep-layer shear was light, it is possible mid-level shear or dry air also played a role in the downshear convective configuration.

Previous work has shown a more symmetric distribution of convection, with greater azimuthal coverage, is favorable for greater rates of TC intensification. Recent microwave imagery shows Fabio's inner core is now much better organized and there still exists a window for RI.
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Re: EPAC: FABIO - Hurricane

#176 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 02, 2018 9:47 am

Hurricane Fabio Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072018
900 AM MDT Mon Jul 02 2018

Fabio's cloud pattern has improved somewhat since the previous
advisory and early light visible satellite images show a
well-defined curved band that wraps around the center. Recent
microwave images have shown some mixed signals regarding the
structure of the inner core. A 1028 UTC SSMI microwave overpass
showed a well-defined low-level structure but the system was tilted
with most of the deep convective banding located to the southeast of
the center. A subsequent 1147 UTC SSMIS pass showed similar
structure, but a more recent 1321 UTC SSMIS overpass shows the
formation of mid-level eye with a tighter inner-core. Subjective
Dvorak intensity estimates were 55 to 65 kt from SAB and TAFB, and
objective estimates from UW/CIMSS are 65 kt. Based on the recent
improvement in structure, the initial intensity has been raised to
65 kt, making Fabio the third hurricane in the eastern Pacific basin
during the 2018 hurricane season.

Although Fabio has strengthened and become a hurricane, it has not
strengthened as rapidly as expected. This was likely due to the
lack of inner core organization and the entrainment of some
mid-level dry air as noted in previous discussions. Now that the
inner core structure has improved and the hurricane is forecast to
remain over warm waters and in a low shear environment, a faster
rate of intensification is anticipated during the next 24 to 36 h,
and Fabio is still forecast to become a major hurricane on Tuesday.
By early Wednesday, the hurricane is forecast to reach cooler waters
and less favorable thermodynamic conditions which should result in
rapid weakening. Fabio is forecast to become a post-tropical
remnant low by day 5.

The cyclone has moved a little slower than expected over the past 24
hours and the initial motion estimate is 285/8 kt. Fabio is
forecast to move west-northwestward at a faster forward speed
to the south of a mid-level ridge that extends westward from
northern Mexico. The track guidance is in very good agreement and
the NHC forecast remains near the middle of the guidance envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/1500Z 12.8N 110.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 03/0000Z 13.7N 112.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 03/1200Z 14.7N 114.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 04/0000Z 15.8N 117.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 04/1200Z 17.0N 120.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 05/1200Z 19.5N 125.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 06/1200Z 22.6N 130.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 07/1200Z 25.0N 135.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: EPAC: FABIO - Hurricane

#177 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 02, 2018 11:45 am

@MikeFischerWx
Previous work has shown a more symmetric distribution of convection, with greater azimuthal coverage, is favorable for greater rates of TC intensification. Recent microwave imagery shows Fabio's inner core is now much better organized and there still exists a window for RI.


 https://twitter.com/MikeFischerWx/status/1013789173436776448


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Re: EPAC: FABIO - Tropical Storm

#178 Postby galaxy401 » Mon Jul 02, 2018 12:03 pm

cycloneye wrote:Let's have this discussion from this moment because Fabio definitly has not met the expectations that were set as it was expected it would be a major hurricane (Cat 3 or 4) Time is running out as it only has roughly 24-36 hours of warm waters.

Which of the following factors were the most detrimental to not let Fabio do the Rapid Intensification proccess that was expected and be a formidable hurricane?

1-Dry air intrusions
2-Delayed development to Tropical Depression (Less time on warm waters)
3-Northern shear more than expected
4-Other reasons


Well there were comparisons made to Rick 2009 here which I think is a bit of a overstatement considering the environment. I guess the factors involved here are the dry air intrusions and later development then expected.

I'm still thinking a major hurricane out of Fabio but I highly doubt category 5.
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Re: EPAC: FABIO - Hurricane

#179 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Jul 02, 2018 12:59 pm

First time since I began tracking EPAC storms have I seen minimal dry air have such consequential effects on TC development. Its behaving quite similarly to the Atlantic and WPAC.

Also seen it with Bud.
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Re: EPAC: FABIO - Hurricane

#180 Postby hurricanes1234 » Mon Jul 02, 2018 1:06 pm

If this doesn't start intensifying at the expected quick rate by the end of today, then even a major hurricane may be out of the cards.

Definitely not the record-breaking activity which was modelled a week ago.
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