EPAC: FABIO - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

TXPZ27 KNES 021822
TCSENP

A. 07E (FABIO)

B. 02/1800Z

C. 13.2N

D. 111.1W

E. THREE/GOES-W

F. T4.0/4.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...8/10 BANDING FOR A DT=4.0 WHICH INCLUDES +0.5 ADJUSTMENT
FOR W. MET AND PT AGREE. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...LEE

[cycloneye]

Up to 70 kts.

EP, 07, 2018070218, , BEST, 0, 134N, 1112W, 70, 983, HU

[cycloneye]

Here comes the eye!!

[Kingarabian]

With the eye clearing out, i would say it gives Fabio a pressure reading near 975mb. Close to the most recent bullish GFS runs from 2 days ago which had Fabio between 965-975mb.

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Fabio Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072018
300 PM MDT Mon Jul 02 2018

Fabio's cloud pattern has continued to improve over the past several
hours. A banding eye-like feature has appeared in visible imagery,
but it is not yet evident in IR channels. A recent ASCAT pass
around 1730 UTC indicated that the cyclone remains fairly
asymmetric, but the inner-core has tightened somewhat. The
corresponding AMSU microwave imagery at that time indicated that the
western eyewall was somewhat open, but the latest visible imagery
suggests that the eyewall may be finally closing off, despite the
presence of a dry slot that wraps around the western and southern
portions of the inner core. A blend of Dvorak estimates from TAFB
and SAB supported an initial intensity of 70 kt at 1800 UTC, and
given the improvement of the cloud pattern since that time, the
initial intensity has been raised to 75 kt.

The intensity guidance is dramatically different from 24 hours ago,
and now most of the guidance keeps Fabio below major hurricane
strength. The deep-layer shear is forecast to remain low for at
least the next 3 days, but the hurricane only has about 24 hours
left to strengthen over warm SSTs. Beginning around 36 hours, quick
weakening will occur as it becomes embedded within an unfavorable
thermodynamic environment. Given that the inner core of the
hurricane finally appears to be contracting, the forecast is still
on the high side of the guidance for the first 24 hours, close to
the DSHP forecast and similar to the previous advisory. After that
time, the forecast is close to the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids
through day 5.

The earlier ASCAT pass indicated that the center was a little north
of the previous estimates, and this has since been confirmed by the
presence of the banding eye. The track forecast has therefore been
adjusted northward accordingly, but otherwise is very similar to the
previous advisory. Fabio is still forecast to move west-northwest
to northwestward over the next 4 to 5 days along the southwestern
periphery of a mid-level ridge. The models remain in fairly good
agreement on the track forecast, and the NHC forecast is near the
various consensus models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/2100Z 13.8N 111.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 03/0600Z 14.4N 113.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 03/1800Z 15.5N 115.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 04/0600Z 16.6N 118.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 04/1800Z 17.9N 121.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 05/1800Z 20.8N 125.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 06/1800Z 24.0N 130.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 07/1800Z 26.0N 134.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

[Yellow Evan]

With the eye clearing out, i would say it gives Fabio a pressure reading near 975mb. Close to the most recent bullish GFS runs from 2 days ago which had Fabio between 965-975mb.

Problem is the GFS doesn't take account upwelling and thus tends to peak EPAC storms, especially ones that move over sharp SST gradients too late.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Use the FV3 for the EPAC. It has a much better handle on intensity than the operational GFS.

[cycloneye]

@wxtrackercody
#Fabio is intensifying but not at the rate most expected. Recent ASCAT shows >60kt winds in the NE quad, yet winds below tropical storm force in the SW quad. Dry air from large circulation? Consequence of a convectively-suppressed kelvin wave passing overhead?



 https://twitter.com/wxtrackercody/status/1013864399281500160

[Kingarabian]

Dry air intrusion... It just can't build its core.

[Yellow Evan]

This is functioning like a messy WPAC system except it doesn't have time to sit there and screw around. This will end up around 85-90 knots.

[Kingarabian]

It's trying again:

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 02 JUL 2018 Time : 230000 UTC
Lat : 14:08:59 N Lon : 112:10:11 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.2 / 981.8mb/ 69.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.2 3.9 3.9

Center Temp : -41.0C Cloud Region Temp : -58.4C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

[cycloneye]

TXPZ27 KNES 030031
TCSENP

A. 07E (FABIO)

B. 03/0000Z

C. 14.2N

D. 112.7W

E. ONE/GOES-E

F. T4.0/4.0/D0.5/12HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/AMSR2

H. REMARKS...AN MG EYE SURROUNDED BY LG AND EMBEDDED WITHIN MG RESULTS
IN AN EYE NUMBER OF 4.5, AND EYE ADJUSTMENT OF -0.5, AND A RESULTING DT
OF 4.0. THE MET AND PT ARE BOTH 4.5 THE FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

02/1919Z 13.9N 111.8W AMSR2


...HOSLEY

[cycloneye]

Fabio has not gone thru a bonifide RI process at all. Now up to 80 kts.

EP, 07, 2018070300, , BEST, 0, 142N, 1124W, 80, 977, HU

[hurricanes1234]

Chances of a major hurricane are steadily decreasing IMO. This thing hasn't even been able to build a proper core. Perhaps the models the NHC had mentioned in their initial discussions which refused to intensify the system very much were onto something after all.

[cycloneye]

Chances of a major hurricane are steadily decreasing IMO. This thing hasn't even been able to build a proper core. Perhaps the models the NHC had mentioned in their initial discussions which refused to intensify the system very much were onto something after all.

All along HWRF didn't went bullish on Fabio.

[Kingarabian]

Still has a good shot @ MH status. Has another 24 hours of ideal conditions for RI.

-75C trying to wrap around the warm spot.

[Kingarabian]

Not the best looking but T numbers could jump to 5.0-5.5 if the eye continues to warm or the cold ring continues to wrap around the eye.

[hurricanes1234]

Not the best looking but T numbers could jump to 5.0-5.5 if the eye continues to warm or the cold ring continues to wrap around the eye.

Key word: if and only if.

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Fabio Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072018
900 PM MDT Mon Jul 02 2018

Hurricane Fabio is on a strengthening trend. Recent microwave and
infrared satellite images show that the inner core of the hurricane
has become better established, but the eye has not yet cleared out
in geostationary satellite images. The banding features beyond the
inner core are also better organized and more symmetric around the
center. The initial intensity is increased slightly to 80 kt, which
is at the high end of the Dvorak estimates.

Additional strengthening is expected overnight and on Tuesday as
Fabio moves into a region of lower wind shear, and remains over warm
waters and in a fairly moist air mass. The NHC forecast shows a
peak intensity of 100 kt at 24 hours, but given the expected
favorable environmental conditions, Fabio could reach its highest
intensity between the 12- and 24-h periods. Thereafter, steady or
even rapid weakening is forecast as the hurricane crosses the 26
degree C isotherm and moves into a progressively drier airmass. The
NHC intensity forecast lies at the high end of the guidance in the
short term, but falls in line with the consensus aids at 48 hours
and beyond.

Fabio has jogged to the north and sped up some since the previous
advisory, with the initial motion estimated to be 300/12 kt. The
track forecast is relatively straightforward. Fabio is expected
to move west-northwestward to northwestward at a slightly faster
forward speed during the next several days while it moves around the
southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge. The forward speed
should decrease by the end of the forecast period when the system is
forecast to be shallower and becomes more influenced by easterly
low-level flow. The track models are in very good agreement, and
the NHC forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0300Z 14.5N 113.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 03/1200Z 15.3N 114.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 04/0000Z 16.3N 117.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 04/1200Z 17.6N 120.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 05/0000Z 19.0N 122.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 06/0000Z 22.3N 127.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 07/0000Z 25.4N 131.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 08/0000Z 27.0N 135.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi