ATL: CHRIS - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

VDM:

000
URNT12 KWBC 090205
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL032018
A. 09/01:31:33Z
B. 32.46 deg N 074.47 deg W
C. NA
D. 1005 mb
E. 105 deg 6 kt
F. NA
G. NA
H. 38 kt
I. 276 deg 27 nm 01:19:37Z
J. 018 deg 57 kt
K. 272 deg 21 nm 01:21:10Z
L. 37 kt
M. 087 deg 38 nm 01:41:15Z
N. 176 deg 43 kt
O. 088 deg 79 nm 01:51:23Z
P. 13 C / 2300 m
Q. 15 C / 2355 m
R. 10 C / NA
S. 1345 / NA
T. 0.01 / 2 nm
U. NOAA2 0503A CHRIS OB 06
PENETRATION AT 8000 FT RADAR ALT
MAX FL WIND 57 KT 272 / 21 NM 01:21:10Z
MAX FL TEMP 15 C 163 / 7 NM FROM FL CNTR

[cycloneye]

000
URNT15 KWBC 090222
NOAA2 0503A CHRIS HDOB 17 20180709
021230 3313N 07306W 7695 02422 0186 +127 +080 130032 032 029 001 00
021300 3315N 07307W 7696 02420 0185 +127 +071 126033 034 028 000 00
021330 3316N 07309W 7696 02420 0188 +122 +072 124033 033 028 001 00
021400 3318N 07311W 7695 02419 0190 +120 +076 125033 034 027 001 00
021430 3320N 07313W 7696 02419 0188 +121 +076 125034 034 027 002 00
021500 3321N 07315W 7693 02421 0184 +125 +071 124033 033 029 000 00
021530 3323N 07316W 7694 02420 0186 +123 +073 120033 034 028 000 00
021600 3325N 07318W 7693 02420 0184 +125 +071 120034 034 027 001 00
021630 3327N 07320W 7695 02419 0183 +126 +069 120035 035 029 000 00
021700 3328N 07322W 7696 02419 0180 +129 +068 119034 035 028 001 00
021730 3330N 07324W 7696 02419 0180 +130 +068 120034 035 027 002 00
021800 3331N 07326W 7695 02419 0182 +127 +067 118036 036 026 002 00
021830 3333N 07328W 7693 02419 0182 +127 +068 118036 037 027 001 00
021900 3334N 07331W 7695 02418 0182 +126 +069 118037 037 027 001 00
021930 3336N 07333W 7693 02419 0183 +125 +066 116037 037 026 001 00
022000 3337N 07335W 7695 02418 0182 +125 +066 114037 038 026 001 00
022030 3339N 07337W 7693 02418 0184 +121 +078 111038 038 026 001 00
022100 3340N 07339W 7694 02419 0187 +116 +084 107038 039 026 001 00
022130 3341N 07342W 7691 02420 0182 +121 +097 109037 039 028 002 00
022200 3343N 07344W 7689 02421 0180 +122 +079 112037 039 029 001 00

[Hammy]

Appears to be a bit weaker than the 00z BT estimate.

Could be, but I've also noticed over the years that for some reason the NOAA winds tend to be lower overall than the AF flights, though I'm not sure the reason.

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

000
URNT15 KWBC 090232
NOAA2 0503A CHRIS HDOB 18 20180709
022230 3344N 07346W 7700 02411 0183 +119 +105 114035 036 029 001 00
022300 3346N 07348W 7703 02408 0185 +119 +097 110035 036 029 001 00
022330 3347N 07351W 7683 02429 0189 +115 +085 103034 035 027 000 00
022400 3348N 07353W 7694 02419 0187 +119 +078 106033 033 027 000 00
022430 3350N 07355W 7701 02413 0182 +127 +072 105032 033 028 001 00
022500 3351N 07357W 7698 02416 0184 +125 +080 104032 033 027 000 00
022530 3353N 07359W 7703 02410 0184 +125 +079 107035 037 024 000 00
022600 3354N 07401W 7699 02414 0183 +126 +079 108035 036 025 000 00
022630 3356N 07403W 7697 02420 0185 +126 +079 101033 034 026 000 00
022700 3357N 07405W 7697 02420 0186 +126 +078 095032 032 025 000 00
022730 3359N 07407W 7700 02418 0188 +125 +077 096031 032 023 001 00
022800 3400N 07409W 7699 02418 0187 +126 +074 101033 033 024 000 00
022830 3402N 07411W 7701 02416 0187 +127 +073 100031 032 024 000 00
022900 3403N 07413W 7702 02416 0190 +124 +074 099030 031 022 001 00
022930 3405N 07415W 7700 02419 0193 +122 +075 099030 030 021 000 00
023000 3406N 07417W 7699 02420 0196 +120 +077 098029 029 020 000 00
023030 3408N 07420W 7700 02420 0197 +118 +078 099029 029 020 000 00
023100 3409N 07422W 7698 02421 0197 +120 +077 099027 027 021 000 00
023130 3410N 07424W 7698 02423 0196 +122 +075 095026 026 020 000 00
023200 3412N 07426W 7700 02423 0197 +121 +075 094025 026 019 002 03

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Looks like significant dry air intrusion going into the core of Chris right now.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Chris Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032018
1100 PM EDT Sun Jul 08 2018

Chris is on a strengthening trend. Deep convection has been
expanding over the center and recent microwave images show an
improved structure with tightly curved bands, especially on the
north and east sides of the circulation. The NOAA Hurricane Hunters
are currently investigating Chris and so far they have found a
minimum pressure of 1005 mb and maximum flight-level winds of 57 kt,
which would support a 50-kt intensity. The initial intensity is
increased to 50 kt, but this is a little lower than the latest
Dvorak estimates.

Chris has not moved much today as it remains caught in very weak
steering currents between two mid-level highs and a mid- to
upper-level trough to its northeast. Since this pattern is not
expected to change much during the next day or so, Chris is likely
to continue to drift around during that time period. On Tuesday,
however, a deep-layer trough is expected to approach the storm and
that should finally cause Chris to pull away to the northeast. A
very fast northeastward motion is forecast toward the end of the
period when the cyclone becomes embedded in strong mid-latitude
flow. The NHC track forecast is not too different than the previous
one and lies near the various consensus aids.

Additional strengthening is expected during the next 2 to 3 days as
Chris remains over the warm Gulf Stream waters and in a moderate
wind shear environment. The global models suggest that Chris could
also benefit from baroclinic enhancements ahead of the approaching
trough. The NHC intensity forecast follows the HCCA and ICON
models and brings Chris to hurricane strength on Monday with
additional strengthening into Tuesday. Steady weakening should
begin shortly after 72 hours, and extratropical transition should be
complete by 96 hours when Chris crosses the north wall of the Gulf
Stream and is over very chilly 10 degree C waters. The NHC
intensity forecast is slightly higher than the previous one during
the next few days to be in better agreement with the latest
guidance.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0300Z 32.5N 74.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 09/1200Z 32.4N 74.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 10/0000Z 32.3N 74.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 10/1200Z 32.3N 74.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 11/0000Z 33.5N 73.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 12/0000Z 37.5N 68.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 13/0000Z 43.6N 61.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 14/0000Z 49.5N 52.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[Alyono]

Looks like significant dry air intrusion going into the core of Chris right now.

water may have cooled by 2-3C since this has not moved in a couple of days

[capepoint]

3k NAM is almost always total garbage when it comes to tropical systems. You can look at it to see what other features are doing in the general area to see what effect they could have on a tropical system, like an active front coming down or something, but never take tropical forecasts from it very seriously. That's my opinion anyhow.

[BYG Jacob]

Damn, was just getting that classic comma look too.

[cycloneye]

Lower pressure than last pass.

000
URNT15 KWBC 090302
NOAA2 0503A CHRIS HDOB 21 20180709
025230 3256N 07420W 7680 02380 0100 +137 +128 097034 042 038 004 00
025300 3254N 07420W 7654 02400 0093 +138 +135 097039 042 046 011 03
025330 3252N 07420W 7653 02398 0084 +142 +129 094030 031 033 004 00
025400 3250N 07420W 7654 02396 0084 +146 +117 086028 028 027 003 00
025430 3248N 07420W 7647 02407 0083 +145 +114 086028 028 025 001 00
025500 3245N 07420W 7634 02420 0086 +136 +115 082029 029 025 001 00
025530 3243N 07420W 7633 02420 0088 +135 +113 086031 031 025 004 00
025600 3241N 07419W 7641 02405 0081 +137 +111 087026 028 022 005 00
025630 3239N 07419W 7639 02406 0079 +140 +099 088021 023 023 003 00
025700 3237N 07419W 7647 02399 0079 +140 +103 097024 024 021 002 00
025730 3235N 07419W 7636 02408 0076 +137 +109 101026 027 017 004 00
025800 3233N 07420W 7646 02390 0070 +139 +103 102027 027 018 003 00
025830 3231N 07420W 7637 02393 0064 +135 +114 097025 027 019 002 00
025900 3229N 07420W 7650 02376 0065 +130 +118 095023 025 021 004 00
025930 3227N 07421W 7640 02381 0062 +127 +121 113021 025 026 005 00
030000 3225N 07421W 7634 02385 0053 +127 +120 121020 022 026 005 03
030030 3224N 07422W 7630 02383 0041 +135 +124 108015 017 021 000 03
030100 3222N 07423W 7649 02357 0029 +143 +119 091004 007 015 001 03
030130 3220N 07423W 7639 02364 0023 +145 +124 268006 011 012 002 00
030200 3218N 07423W 7604 02408 0026 +146 +118 256015 017 023 002 00

[cycloneye]

[Hurricaneman]

Pressure is down 2 mb to 1002 mb from the last pass, that’s decent strengthening from what I can see

[Alyono]

TROPICAL STORM CHRIS ANALYSED POSITION : 32.6N 74.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL032018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 09.07.2018 0 32.6N 74.3W 996 58
1200UTC 09.07.2018 12 32.3N 75.0W 987 55
0000UTC 10.07.2018 24 32.2N 75.3W 984 56
1200UTC 10.07.2018 36 32.4N 75.2W 981 60
0000UTC 11.07.2018 48 32.9N 74.5W 977 60
1200UTC 11.07.2018 60 34.0N 73.1W 972 67
0000UTC 12.07.2018 72 35.9N 70.1W 961 76
1200UTC 12.07.2018 84 39.2N 67.1W 955 82
0000UTC 13.07.2018 96 43.0N 63.7W 977 64
1200UTC 13.07.2018 108 46.4N 59.3W 1002 38
0000UTC 14.07.2018 120 49.2N 53.7W 1011 29
1200UTC 14.07.2018 132 49.5N 43.4W 1011 29
0000UTC 15.07.2018 144 48.2N 33.1W 1007 32

no consistency with UKMET

[cycloneye]

Another VDM.

000
URNT12 KWBC 090334
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL032018
A. 09/03:01:06Z
B. 32.36 deg N 074.39 deg W
C. NA
D. 1004 mb
E. 355 deg 03 kt
F. NA
G. NA
H. 47 kt
I. 003 deg 44 nm 02:50:07Z
J. 072 deg 52 kt
K. 001 deg 47 nm 02:49:04Z
L. 41 kt
M. 181 deg 8 nm 03:03:09Z
N. 286 deg 40 kt
O. 181 deg 9 nm 03:03:16Z
P. 14 C / 2286 m
Q. 15 C / 2331 m
R. 12 C / NA
S. 1345 / NA
T. 0.01 / 1 nm
U. NOAA2 0503A CHRIS OB 12
PENETRATION AT 8000 FT RADAR ALT
MAX FL WIND 57 KT 272 / 21 NM 01:21:10Z

[HurricaneRyan]

Best storm of the season so far

[hurricaneCW]

It wouldn't shock me if he attempted at a major once movement resumes.

Significant impacts over Eastern Canada likely.

[Hammy]

Given the satellite appearance, this could end up like Leslie in 2012 where it stalls out so long that the circulation becomes too broad and spread out that it's not able to recover. Already starting to have a similar look. Winds look like they're down quite a bit as well.

[Kingarabian]

Cracked core like this symbols dry air intrusion within the core. Its gonna have to reset.

[Yellow Evan]

I actually think it's upwelling, given the storm is almost in the same spot as it was when it formed.