ATL: CHRIS - Post-Tropical

[xtyphooncyclonex]

I did not see that coming.

[Yellow Evan]

Strongest July hurricane in ten years.

8 years - Alex 2010 reached peak intensity with 110MPH on July 1st. But Chris may overtake that at this rate.

Unlikely to get anywhere near Alex in terms of pressure.

[HurricaneRyan]

Strongest Chris named storm in this basin now! Beryl and Chris really shined this time around.

[NotSparta]

Seems to me that the eye is contracting

[1900hurricane]

The eye has cooled to off-white. Not likely to get that 5.5 DT with that unless it warms some again (entirely possible).

[1900hurricane]

There might be some structural erosion on the western side of the circulation.

[galaxy401]

Strongest July hurricane in ten years.

8 years - Alex 2010 reached peak intensity with 110MPH on July 1st. But Chris may overtake that at this rate.

The weird thing with Alex though is that it reached that intensity on June 30th local time. It was July 1 if UTC time is used.

[Yellow Evan]

11/0547 UTC 34.7N 70.7W T4.5/5.0 CHRIS -- Atlantic

[Hammy]

A bit of an organizational decrease earlier but recovering from it now--was that from the cooler waters mentioned in the earlier discussion?

[Kazmit]

Doesn't look as good this morning.

[HurricaneEnzo]

Eye no longer visible on satellite. Chris probably missed his chance to go major. Still an imperssive storm got some beautiful images of it just off the coast.

[TheStormExpert]

Yep likely peaked last night. Though I’m a bit surprised considering how much warmer than average the SST’s are in this part of the Atlantic.

[GCANE]

May be sucking in some SAL

[wxman57]

It may be decoupling. The mid/upper-level circulation may be outrunning the surface circulation. Strong SW winds aloft.

[NotSparta]

And it looks like the eye is back.

[hurricanes1234]

[MississippiWx]

It may be decoupling. The mid/upper-level circulation may be outrunning the surface circulation. Strong SW winds aloft.

It appears to me that Chris mixed out some dry air or went over a small area of colder water. It has recently reformed its eye wall. Still time for a little more strengthening.

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Chris Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032018
500 AM AST Wed Jul 11 2018

Chris continues to have a very distinct eye, but the surrounding
convection is not as strong as a few hours ago. Dvorak T-numbers
are either steady or lower, so the initial intensity is kept at 90
kt in this advisory. Chris has the opportunity to strengthen a
little during the next 12 to 18 hours while is moving over the
Gulf Stream or warm waters. After that time, the hurricane will move
over increasingly cold waters, and it should begin to acquire
extratropical characteristics as it passes south of Newfoundland.

Satellite fixes indicate that Chris has increased its forward
speed, and is now moving toward the northeast or 050 degrees at 19
kt. The hurricane is already embedded withing the fast flow ahead of
a large mid-level trough, and this pattern should continue to steer
the hurricane northeastward over the open Atlantic with additional
increase in forward speed. Models are in remarkably good agreement
and consequently the guidance envelope is quite tight. This
increases considerably the confidence in the track forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0900Z 35.3N 69.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 11/1800Z 37.2N 67.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 12/0600Z 40.9N 62.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 12/1800Z 45.0N 56.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 13/0600Z 48.5N 50.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 14/0600Z 55.5N 30.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 15/0600Z 63.0N 15.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Chris Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032018
1100 AM AST Wed Jul 11 2018

The IR signature of Chris has fluctuated substantially this
morning. The eye became obscured by clouds shortly after sunrise,
and an SSMIS overpass at 1120 UTC indicated that the vortex had
become tilted, with the mid-level eye displaced to the east of the
low-level center of circulation. Since that time, however, the eye
has once again become more distinct in visible and IR imagery.
Dvorak estimates from all agencies had decreased markedly at 1200
UTC but given the improvement of the cloud pattern since then, the
initial intensity has been lowered only slightly, to 85 kt.

For the next 12 hours or so, the hurricane will be approaching and
crossing the warm waters of the Gulf Stream, and no further
weakening is expected. In fact it is possible that Chris could even
briefly re-intensify, as shown by some of the intensity guidance,
although this is not explicitly shown in the forecast. Once the
hurricane crosses the northern wall of the Gulf Stream in about 24
hours, all of the dynamical models indicate that Chris will quickly
acquire extratropical characteristics and rapidly weaken while its
wind field becomes more spread out. Given the lower initial
intensity, the new NHC intensity forecast is slightly lower
than the previous one for the first 36 hours, but very similar
thereafter, and is close to a consensus of the global and hurricane
dynamical models.

Almost no change has been made to the track forecast. Chris should
continue accelerating toward the northeast ahead of an approaching
mid-level trough over the next couple of days. By 96 hours, all of
the global models forecast that Chris will begin to interact with
another extratropical low, which should cause Chris to slow down,
before the two lows eventually merge by day 5. The global
models are still in very good agreement on the track of Chris,
especially for the first 72 h of the forecast and confidence
remains high in the track forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/1500Z 36.4N 67.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 12/0000Z 38.7N 64.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 12/1200Z 42.7N 59.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 13/0000Z 46.9N 53.3W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 13/1200Z 50.3N 45.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 14/1200Z 56.8N 26.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 15/1200Z 62.0N 16.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

[tolakram]

SLIDER: http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=conus&x=8499&y=4004&z=3&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=1&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

SLIDER Meso: http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=mesoscale_01&x=749.5&y=1116&z=2&im=24&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=1&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

GIV Downloadable: https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/GOES16_MESO_Band.php?lat=35N&lon=69W&band=02&length=120