ATL: CHRIS - Post-Tropical
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TheAustinMan
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Re: ATL: CHRIS - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Dropsonde in the southeastern quadrant measured plenty of 90+ kt gusts below the boundary layer and sampled 84 kt (more gust than sustained, though) 3 hPa above surface pressure.
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Re: ATL: CHRIS - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Dropsonde in the eyewall with 84kt winds at surface. Perhaps cat 2 next advisory?
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Kendall -> SLO -> PBC
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: CHRIS - Tropical Storm - Discussion
18z Best Track went with 70 kts but that can change with the next 2 passes from recon.
AL, 03, 2018071018, , BEST, 0, 334N, 728W, 70, 984, HU
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txwatcher91
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Re: ATL: CHRIS - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Hypercane_Kyle wrote:Southern side is VERY potent, flight level winds at 100mph, SFMR 85mph. Cat 2 wouldn't surprise me later tonight.
According to the dropsonde data it looks like SST's are around 24-25C under Chris. As it moves NE the water will actually be a bit warmer and the best conditions in the upper levels will be Wednesday as it taps into an outflow channel. A major hurricane is very likely here as it scoots off to the NE.
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: CHRIS - Recon
823
URNT15 KNHC 101839
AF306 1103A CHRIS HDOB 27 20180710
182930 3229N 07148W 8429 01575 0122 +145 +104 221058 059 043 000 00
183000 3228N 07147W 8430 01575 0121 +147 +104 220056 057 042 000 00
183030 3226N 07145W 8430 01578 0120 +153 +104 220056 056 042 000 00
183100 3225N 07144W 8432 01578 0121 +154 +104 219057 057 041 000 00
183130 3224N 07143W 8430 01579 0124 +151 +103 219057 058 040 000 00
183200 3223N 07142W 8432 01581 0124 +154 +104 221056 057 039 000 00
183230 3222N 07140W 8431 01581 0125 +156 +103 219056 057 039 000 00
183300 3221N 07139W 8429 01585 0127 +153 +103 220056 057 037 000 00
183330 3220N 07138W 8429 01585 0128 +154 +103 220055 056 036 000 00
183400 3219N 07136W 8432 01585 0129 +157 +103 218055 055 036 000 00
183430 3218N 07135W 8429 01590 0129 +157 +103 216055 056 034 000 00
183500 3218N 07135W 8429 01590 0130 +158 +103 217052 053 034 000 00
183530 3216N 07132W 8429 01591 0132 +156 +106 218051 052 033 000 00
183600 3215N 07131W 8428 01593 0136 +151 +108 220051 052 032 000 00
183630 3214N 07129W 8424 01598 0139 +148 +110 223048 049 030 000 00
183700 3213N 07128W 8439 01585 0138 +153 +110 223047 049 029 000 03
183730 3212N 07127W 8428 01596 0135 +156 +110 226051 053 029 000 00
183800 3210N 07126W 8430 01597 0138 +159 +110 223050 051 029 000 00
183830 3209N 07125W 8433 01596 0141 +158 +109 221046 049 030 000 00
183900 3209N 07125W 8433 01596 0146 +152 +110 224044 045 032 000 00
URNT15 KNHC 101839
AF306 1103A CHRIS HDOB 27 20180710
182930 3229N 07148W 8429 01575 0122 +145 +104 221058 059 043 000 00
183000 3228N 07147W 8430 01575 0121 +147 +104 220056 057 042 000 00
183030 3226N 07145W 8430 01578 0120 +153 +104 220056 056 042 000 00
183100 3225N 07144W 8432 01578 0121 +154 +104 219057 057 041 000 00
183130 3224N 07143W 8430 01579 0124 +151 +103 219057 058 040 000 00
183200 3223N 07142W 8432 01581 0124 +154 +104 221056 057 039 000 00
183230 3222N 07140W 8431 01581 0125 +156 +103 219056 057 039 000 00
183300 3221N 07139W 8429 01585 0127 +153 +103 220056 057 037 000 00
183330 3220N 07138W 8429 01585 0128 +154 +103 220055 056 036 000 00
183400 3219N 07136W 8432 01585 0129 +157 +103 218055 055 036 000 00
183430 3218N 07135W 8429 01590 0129 +157 +103 216055 056 034 000 00
183500 3218N 07135W 8429 01590 0130 +158 +103 217052 053 034 000 00
183530 3216N 07132W 8429 01591 0132 +156 +106 218051 052 033 000 00
183600 3215N 07131W 8428 01593 0136 +151 +108 220051 052 032 000 00
183630 3214N 07129W 8424 01598 0139 +148 +110 223048 049 030 000 00
183700 3213N 07128W 8439 01585 0138 +153 +110 223047 049 029 000 03
183730 3212N 07127W 8428 01596 0135 +156 +110 226051 053 029 000 00
183800 3210N 07126W 8430 01597 0138 +159 +110 223050 051 029 000 00
183830 3209N 07125W 8433 01596 0141 +158 +109 221046 049 030 000 00
183900 3209N 07125W 8433 01596 0146 +152 +110 224044 045 032 000 00
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: CHRIS - Recon
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: CHRIS - Recon
Eye is closed.
URNT12 KNHC 101840
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL032018
A. 10/18:05:20Z
B. 33.40 deg N 072.80 deg W
C. 850 mb 1275 m
D. 984 mb
E. 110 deg 4 kt
F. CLOSED
G. C25
H. 69 kt
I. 331 deg 9 nm 18:02:30Z
J. 075 deg 66 kt
K. 337 deg 11 nm 18:02:00Z
L. 74 kt
M. 132 deg 14 nm 18:10:00Z
N. 228 deg 88 kt
O. 132 deg 16 nm 18:10:30Z
P. 16 C / 1523 m
Q. 20 C / 1511 m
R. 10 C / NA
S. 12345 / 08
T. 0.02 / 2 nm
U. AF306 1103A CHRIS OB 07
MAX FL WIND 88 KT 132 / 16 NM 18:10:30Z
;
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL032018
A. 10/18:05:20Z
B. 33.40 deg N 072.80 deg W
C. 850 mb 1275 m
D. 984 mb
E. 110 deg 4 kt
F. CLOSED
G. C25
H. 69 kt
I. 331 deg 9 nm 18:02:30Z
J. 075 deg 66 kt
K. 337 deg 11 nm 18:02:00Z
L. 74 kt
M. 132 deg 14 nm 18:10:00Z
N. 228 deg 88 kt
O. 132 deg 16 nm 18:10:30Z
P. 16 C / 1523 m
Q. 20 C / 1511 m
R. 10 C / NA
S. 12345 / 08
T. 0.02 / 2 nm
U. AF306 1103A CHRIS OB 07
MAX FL WIND 88 KT 132 / 16 NM 18:10:30Z
;
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Re: ATL: CHRIS - Tropical Storm - Discussion
AL, 03, 2018071018, , BEST, 0, 334N, 728W, 75, 984, HU
Upped to 75 knots since the 70kt BT.
Upped to 75 knots since the 70kt BT.
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: CHRIS - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Siker wrote:AL, 03, 2018071018, , BEST, 0, 334N, 728W, 75, 984, HU
Upped to 75 knots since the 70kt BT.
That is better with what recon has found so far.
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CrazyC83
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Re: ATL: CHRIS - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Ubuntwo wrote:Dropsonde in the eyewall with 84kt winds at surface. Perhaps cat 2 next advisory?
The boundary layer is cool due to upwelling, so that may not be an effective measurement. I would go with 75 kt per the SFMR and FL winds.
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: CHRIS - Recon
685
URNT15 KNHC 101849
AF306 1103A CHRIS HDOB 28 20180710
183930 3207N 07123W 8437 01595 0144 +158 +112 221048 049 029 001 00
184000 3206N 07121W 8426 01607 0142 +162 +110 222048 049 029 000 00
184030 3205N 07120W 8429 01606 0144 +163 +109 223048 049 029 000 00
184100 3203N 07119W 8432 01603 0148 +160 +109 220047 047 029 000 03
184130 3203N 07117W 8425 01611 0147 +160 +110 220047 047 /// /// 03
184200 3205N 07116W 8420 01613 0148 +157 +112 217045 047 /// /// 03
184230 3207N 07116W 8418 01620 0152 +156 +113 212045 046 030 000 00
184300 3209N 07116W 8430 01608 0151 +155 +115 213046 047 031 000 00
184330 3211N 07116W 8429 01607 0152 +155 +113 211046 047 031 000 00
184400 3214N 07116W 8428 01608 0151 +155 +112 210046 046 032 000 00
184430 3216N 07116W 8429 01607 0149 +158 +111 210046 047 032 000 00
184500 3218N 07116W 8429 01606 0149 +155 +110 210045 046 031 000 00
184530 3221N 07116W 8430 01603 0148 +156 +111 210044 045 032 000 00
184600 3223N 07116W 8429 01604 0148 +155 +111 207046 048 032 000 00
184630 3225N 07116W 8426 01607 0146 +155 +110 208048 049 033 000 00
184700 3228N 07116W 8429 01603 0149 +150 +111 208048 050 034 000 00
184730 3230N 07116W 8420 01604 0138 +162 +110 210051 052 032 000 00
184800 3232N 07116W 8435 01595 0140 +160 +108 208051 051 033 000 00
184830 3235N 07115W 8428 01600 0135 +165 +105 205051 052 035 000 00
184900 3237N 07115W 8429 01596 0135 +163 +103 205052 053 036 000 00
$$
URNT15 KNHC 101849
AF306 1103A CHRIS HDOB 28 20180710
183930 3207N 07123W 8437 01595 0144 +158 +112 221048 049 029 001 00
184000 3206N 07121W 8426 01607 0142 +162 +110 222048 049 029 000 00
184030 3205N 07120W 8429 01606 0144 +163 +109 223048 049 029 000 00
184100 3203N 07119W 8432 01603 0148 +160 +109 220047 047 029 000 03
184130 3203N 07117W 8425 01611 0147 +160 +110 220047 047 /// /// 03
184200 3205N 07116W 8420 01613 0148 +157 +112 217045 047 /// /// 03
184230 3207N 07116W 8418 01620 0152 +156 +113 212045 046 030 000 00
184300 3209N 07116W 8430 01608 0151 +155 +115 213046 047 031 000 00
184330 3211N 07116W 8429 01607 0152 +155 +113 211046 047 031 000 00
184400 3214N 07116W 8428 01608 0151 +155 +112 210046 046 032 000 00
184430 3216N 07116W 8429 01607 0149 +158 +111 210046 047 032 000 00
184500 3218N 07116W 8429 01606 0149 +155 +110 210045 046 031 000 00
184530 3221N 07116W 8430 01603 0148 +156 +111 210044 045 032 000 00
184600 3223N 07116W 8429 01604 0148 +155 +111 207046 048 032 000 00
184630 3225N 07116W 8426 01607 0146 +155 +110 208048 049 033 000 00
184700 3228N 07116W 8429 01603 0149 +150 +111 208048 050 034 000 00
184730 3230N 07116W 8420 01604 0138 +162 +110 210051 052 032 000 00
184800 3232N 07116W 8435 01595 0140 +160 +108 208051 051 033 000 00
184830 3235N 07115W 8428 01600 0135 +165 +105 205051 052 035 000 00
184900 3237N 07115W 8429 01596 0135 +163 +103 205052 053 036 000 00
$$
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: CHRIS - Recon
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Re: ATL: CHRIS - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Is the NHC going to wait until the 5pm advisory to upgrade? Or will they release some sort of special advisory?
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FSU '24 student pursuing a degree in meteorology. Consult NHC for official information.
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: CHRIS - Recon
087
URNT15 KNHC 101859
AF306 1103A CHRIS HDOB 29 20180710
184930 3240N 07115W 8426 01598 0133 +162 +102 203053 053 036 000 00
185000 3242N 07115W 8428 01596 0133 +162 +103 204053 054 037 000 03
185030 3245N 07115W 8428 01595 0135 +157 +102 202053 054 037 000 00
185100 3247N 07115W 8428 01594 0133 +156 +104 201053 054 037 000 00
185130 3249N 07115W 8430 01590 0131 +160 +102 204053 053 036 000 00
185200 3252N 07115W 8426 01594 0131 +159 +101 203054 054 037 000 03
185230 3254N 07115W 8430 01589 0132 +155 +102 202053 054 037 000 03
185300 3257N 07115W 8429 01588 0132 +152 +102 200053 054 037 000 00
185330 3259N 07114W 8429 01588 0132 +151 +101 200054 054 037 000 00
185400 3301N 07114W 8430 01586 0130 +152 +101 198058 059 037 000 00
185430 3304N 07114W 8429 01588 0129 +154 +100 197056 059 037 000 03
185500 3306N 07114W 8429 01586 0125 +158 +099 198058 059 033 000 00
185530 3309N 07114W 8429 01586 0123 +161 +097 197058 060 034 000 00
185600 3311N 07114W 8430 01583 0124 +159 +097 196054 057 036 000 03
185630 3314N 07114W 8428 01585 0122 +160 +100 194052 052 037 000 03
185700 3316N 07114W 8427 01585 0119 +162 +101 192051 051 037 000 03
185730 3319N 07114W 8429 01581 0119 +160 +101 191051 052 037 000 00
185800 3321N 07114W 8428 01581 0120 +159 +102 189053 054 037 000 00
185830 3324N 07113W 8428 01583 0120 +159 +102 188052 053 037 000 03
185900 3326N 07113W 8429 01583 0119 +160 +102 189052 052 036 000 00
$$
URNT15 KNHC 101859
AF306 1103A CHRIS HDOB 29 20180710
184930 3240N 07115W 8426 01598 0133 +162 +102 203053 053 036 000 00
185000 3242N 07115W 8428 01596 0133 +162 +103 204053 054 037 000 03
185030 3245N 07115W 8428 01595 0135 +157 +102 202053 054 037 000 00
185100 3247N 07115W 8428 01594 0133 +156 +104 201053 054 037 000 00
185130 3249N 07115W 8430 01590 0131 +160 +102 204053 053 036 000 00
185200 3252N 07115W 8426 01594 0131 +159 +101 203054 054 037 000 03
185230 3254N 07115W 8430 01589 0132 +155 +102 202053 054 037 000 03
185300 3257N 07115W 8429 01588 0132 +152 +102 200053 054 037 000 00
185330 3259N 07114W 8429 01588 0132 +151 +101 200054 054 037 000 00
185400 3301N 07114W 8430 01586 0130 +152 +101 198058 059 037 000 00
185430 3304N 07114W 8429 01588 0129 +154 +100 197056 059 037 000 03
185500 3306N 07114W 8429 01586 0125 +158 +099 198058 059 033 000 00
185530 3309N 07114W 8429 01586 0123 +161 +097 197058 060 034 000 00
185600 3311N 07114W 8430 01583 0124 +159 +097 196054 057 036 000 03
185630 3314N 07114W 8428 01585 0122 +160 +100 194052 052 037 000 03
185700 3316N 07114W 8427 01585 0119 +162 +101 192051 051 037 000 03
185730 3319N 07114W 8429 01581 0119 +160 +101 191051 052 037 000 00
185800 3321N 07114W 8428 01581 0120 +159 +102 189053 054 037 000 00
185830 3324N 07113W 8428 01583 0120 +159 +102 188052 053 037 000 03
185900 3326N 07113W 8429 01583 0119 +160 +102 189052 052 036 000 00
$$
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: CHRIS - Recon
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CrazyC83
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Re: ATL: CHRIS - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Ian2401 wrote:Is the NHC going to wait until the 5pm advisory to upgrade? Or will they release some sort of special advisory?
They are going to wait - the advisory is less than 2 hours away and there are no warnings in effect. Probably will forecast a peak around 90 kt I would think.
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Kazmit
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Re: ATL: CHRIS - Tropical Storm - Discussion
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Igor 2010, Sandy 2012, Fay 2014, Gonzalo 2014, Joaquin 2015, Nicole 2016, Humberto 2019
I am only a tropical weather enthusiast. My predictions are not official and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
I am only a tropical weather enthusiast. My predictions are not official and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: CHRIS - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Any chance this can pull a Gert? Satellite appearance has improved quite a bit in the last four hours.
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Kazmit
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Re: ATL: CHRIS - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Hammy wrote:Any chance this can pull a Gert? Satellite appearance has improved quite a bit in the last four hours.
It's possible- it still has around a day and a half to intensify. This storm reminds me a lot of Gert, with its current position and satellite appearance.
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Igor 2010, Sandy 2012, Fay 2014, Gonzalo 2014, Joaquin 2015, Nicole 2016, Humberto 2019
I am only a tropical weather enthusiast. My predictions are not official and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
I am only a tropical weather enthusiast. My predictions are not official and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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CyclonicFury
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Re: ATL: CHRIS - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Amazing to see a storm like this in JULY. July has been very hostile in recent years.
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NCSU B.S. in Meteorology Class of 2021. Tropical weather blogger at http://www.cyclonicfury.com. My forecasts and thoughts are NOT official, for official forecasts please consult the National Hurricane Center.
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