ATL: CHRIS - Post-Tropical

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Re: ATL: THREE - Models

#161 Postby seahawkjd » Sun Jul 08, 2018 6:22 pm

Yeah the NAM 3K is almost comical (in a terrifying way). It takes it out to sea but as a 921 MB monster.
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Re: ATL: CHRIS - Models

#162 Postby Highteeld » Sun Jul 08, 2018 7:04 pm

Here's a question: does anybody here know what it is in the cloud physics or convective scheme in the NAMNEST that blows storms up like this? Is it purely based on the fact it's nonhydrostatic and has a moisture bias?





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Re: ATL: THREE - Models

#163 Postby Steve » Sun Jul 08, 2018 7:09 pm

seahawkjd wrote:Yeah the NAM 3K is almost comical (in a terrifying way). It takes it out to sea but as a 921 MB monster.


That’s pretty absurd for sure. What it does is basically stall and deepen consistently for 2 days and then continue to deepen as it starts to take off. This is what I’d take from it. It’s usually pretty good in the horse latitudes (on and off shore). It also was pretty on late this week and weekend with the low in Texas being followed by an upper low and then depicting all the coastal LA rain last night and this morning from the surface trough which would continue a several day trend of rainfall for portions of coastal Texas and pretty far inland in moisture streams.

NAM was first on board for rapid intensification with Hurricane Harvey. It overdid it a bit, and lots of posters have pointed this out (including me a few times), but it was out of its range at 20N and showed what happened while the GFS and Euro showed a tropical surge coming off the Yucatán. Bear in mind the 12km i have access to only goes out 3.5 days so it wasn’t like the Euro or GFS couldn’t have anticipated it since CMC and NAM did (not a bet I’d ever take). So sometimes it’s decent with the tropics. If Chris does sit or drift south a bit and intensify consistently, it was a good or lucky output by the NAM.
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Re: ATL: CHRIS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#164 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 08, 2018 7:42 pm

00z Best Track up to 55 kts.

AL, 03, 2018070900, , BEST, 0, 326N, 745W, 55, 999, TS
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Re: ATL: CHRIS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#165 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 08, 2018 7:59 pm

Slowly getting closer to be a Hurricane.

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Re: ATL: CHRIS - Models

#166 Postby OuterBanker » Sun Jul 08, 2018 8:02 pm

All the models take it safely offshore of NC. Problem is it hangs around for a couple of days before doing so.
Winds have already been a consistent 25 to 35 mph for a couple days here with 8 ft seas. I'm afraid that erosion will be a major factor here even without the concern of a landfall. Chris simply needs to get out of here. Now would be good.
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Re: ATL: CHRIS - Recon

#167 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 08, 2018 8:07 pm

NOAA2 plane is approaching Chris.

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Re: ATL: CHRIS - Recon

#168 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 08, 2018 8:14 pm

000
URNT15 KWBC 090112
NOAA2 0503A CHRIS HDOB 10 20180709
010230 3231N 07618W 7714 02397 0172 +137 +074 009029 029 027 000 00
010300 3231N 07616W 7713 02399 0173 +138 +065 008029 029 027 000 00
010330 3231N 07613W 7713 02399 0171 +140 +067 008029 029 027 000 00
010400 3231N 07611W 7714 02396 0176 +132 +075 011030 031 026 000 00
010430 3231N 07609W 7714 02394 0174 +132 +074 008029 029 028 000 00
010500 3231N 07606W 7713 02396 0172 +133 +074 007029 029 028 000 00
010530 3231N 07604W 7714 02393 0169 +136 +073 006029 030 027 000 00
010600 3230N 07602W 7714 02392 0169 +135 +071 005030 030 028 000 00
010630 3230N 07559W 7714 02390 0170 +132 +072 004030 031 027 000 00
010700 3230N 07557W 7714 02389 0164 +137 +069 005031 033 027 000 00
010730 3230N 07555W 7714 02389 0161 +139 +069 006033 033 028 000 00
010800 3230N 07552W 7714 02386 0160 +138 +064 004033 034 027 000 00
010830 3230N 07550W 7713 02387 0159 +140 +058 003033 034 026 000 00
010900 3230N 07548W 7712 02388 0154 +144 +050 007035 036 026 000 00
010930 3230N 07545W 7712 02387 0152 +145 +054 010037 038 027 000 00
011000 3230N 07543W 7715 02379 0143 +150 +051 013039 040 028 000 00
011030 3230N 07541W 7714 02378 0148 +143 +063 014037 038 030 000 00
011100 3230N 07538W 7714 02379 0155 +131 +111 015037 038 034 000 00
011130 3230N 07536W 7690 02402 0160 +122 +112 011035 037 031 000 00
011200 3230N 07534W 7684 02409 0153 +128 +095 007036 037 027 000 00
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Re: ATL: CHRIS - Recon

#169 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 08, 2018 8:17 pm

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Re: ATL: CHRIS - Recon

#170 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 08, 2018 8:25 pm

Winds getting stronger as plane nears the center.

000
URNT15 KWBC 090122
NOAA2 0503A CHRIS HDOB 11 20180709
011230 3230N 07532W 7681 02413 0157 +123 +105 005034 035 027 000 00
011300 3230N 07529W 7681 02412 0159 +120 +097 005034 034 026 000 00
011330 3230N 07527W 7682 02409 0150 +130 +075 007035 036 028 000 00
011400 3230N 07525W 7682 02407 0149 +131 +069 008035 035 028 000 00
011430 3230N 07522W 7681 02407 0148 +129 +072 008034 035 029 000 00
011500 3230N 07520W 7682 02405 0144 +132 +075 011037 037 032 000 00
011530 3230N 07518W 7682 02403 0146 +127 +084 012040 041 035 000 00
011600 3230N 07515W 7684 02398 0137 +133 +087 007036 038 035 001 00
011630 3231N 07513W 7680 02403 0144 +124 +105 011038 039 034 002 00
011700 3231N 07511W 7692 02385 0129 +132 +105 011039 040 036 000 00
011730 3231N 07509W 7641 02438 0124 +135 +091 017044 045 036 001 00
011800 3231N 07506W 7653 02417 0124 +128 +099 022050 054 036 001 00
011830 3231N 07504W 7636 02437 0116 +132 +101 022053 054 035 001 00
011900 3230N 07502W 7648 02423 0118 +127 +113 023048 051 034 005 00
011930 3230N 07500W 7667 02395 0112 +128 +120 021042 045 038 006 00
012000 3230N 07458W 7647 02415 0108 +127 +126 017047 049 037 006 00
012030 3229N 07455W 7604 02458 0101 +127 +126 017046 048 036 007 00
012100 3228N 07453W 7602 02455 0097 +123 +119 017054 057 034 003 00
012130 3227N 07451W 7636 02412 0092 +124 +118 014051 054 032 005 00
012200 3227N 07449W 7641 02404 0085 +133 +116 003043 047 032 006 00
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Re: ATL: CHRIS - Recon

#171 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 08, 2018 8:26 pm

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Re: ATL: CHRIS - Recon

#172 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 08, 2018 8:36 pm

Lowest pressure on first pass is 1005 mbs.

000
URNT15 KWBC 090132
NOAA2 0503A CHRIS HDOB 12 20180709
012230 3226N 07446W 7637 02404 0079 +133 +116 352039 041 032 006 00
012300 3226N 07444W 7620 02422 0077 +130 +114 351039 040 036 003 03
012330 3227N 07442W 7632 02408 0068 +138 +106 346039 040 032 002 00
012400 3227N 07439W 7618 02419 0057 +146 +094 334037 038 028 001 00
012430 3228N 07437W 7632 02397 0053 +141 +112 336033 037 026 001 00
012500 3228N 07435W 7635 02387 0041 +150 +115 335024 027 027 002 00
012530 3229N 07432W 7578 02447 0036 +147 +117 356017 019 031 002 00
012600 3230N 07430W 7615 02405 0040 +143 +115 028017 019 033 003 00
012630 3229N 07428W 7631 02387 0041 +139 +121 068012 014 033 003 03
012700 3228N 07426W 7620 02397 0043 +133 +125 112009 011 025 005 00
012730 3227N 07425W 7586 02435 0046 +130 +127 214019 026 029 008 00
012800 3225N 07424W 7594 02424 0052 +129 +125 236028 029 022 009 00
012830 3223N 07424W 7644 02381 0052 +141 +115 249022 024 022 006 00
012900 3221N 07425W 7606 02428 0048 +152 +101 242018 019 021 007 03
012930 3221N 07427W 7622 02408 0057 +143 +112 270017 019 /// /// 03
013000 3221N 07429W 7591 02445 0062 +134 +123 282020 024 /// /// 03
013030 3223N 07429W 7606 02422 0052 +138 +129 280021 025 029 005 00
013100 3225N 07428W 7584 02440 0039 +142 +124 298016 021 024 007 03
013130 3227N 07428W 7607 02404 0037 +139 +122 359002 006 026 006 03
013200 3229N 07426W 7580 02440 0043 +133 +124 111012 014 021 004 03
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Re: ATL: CHRIS - Recon

#173 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 08, 2018 8:37 pm

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Re: ATL: CHRIS - Recon

#174 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 08, 2018 8:45 pm

000
URNT15 KWBC 090142
NOAA2 0503A CHRIS HDOB 13 20180709
013230 3229N 07424W 7590 02432 0050 +129 //// 164012 013 029 004 05
013300 3229N 07422W 7594 02430 0057 +127 +125 178016 018 028 006 00
013330 3229N 07419W 7605 02425 0067 +126 +119 184022 025 027 010 00
013400 3229N 07417W 7637 02397 0073 +130 +116 188022 024 030 006 00
013430 3229N 07414W 7614 02425 0069 +133 +110 159023 024 028 006 00
013500 3229N 07412W 7607 02430 0067 +135 +110 154023 024 028 006 00
013530 3229N 07410W 7614 02430 0074 +137 +107 156025 026 031 007 00
013600 3229N 07408W 7617 02431 0081 +132 +112 156022 022 029 009 00
013630 3229N 07405W 7605 02443 0077 +135 +113 177023 024 031 007 00
013700 3229N 07403W 7606 02443 0080 +137 +110 186023 023 032 007 00
013730 3229N 07401W 7606 02447 0085 +135 +109 192024 024 032 006 00
013800 3229N 07358W 7611 02448 0093 +132 +112 201027 028 035 004 00
013830 3229N 07356W 7606 02454 0093 +134 +110 197031 031 035 002 00
013900 3229N 07353W 7607 02453 0094 +138 +105 194032 032 036 000 00
013930 3229N 07351W 7608 02456 0099 +134 +110 190034 035 036 000 00
014000 3229N 07348W 7612 02458 0106 +133 +101 183036 037 034 001 00
014030 3229N 07346W 7611 02460 0105 +137 +088 186036 037 033 001 00
014100 3229N 07344W 7607 02466 0108 +136 +089 187034 034 034 002 00
014130 3229N 07341W 7605 02471 0115 +132 +111 185036 037 037 002 00
014200 3229N 07339W 7612 02468 0123 +131 +086 185038 039 034 001 00
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Re: ATL: CHRIS - Recon

#175 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 08, 2018 8:47 pm

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Re: ATL: CHRIS - Recon

#176 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 08, 2018 8:54 pm

000
URNT15 KWBC 090152
NOAA2 0503A CHRIS HDOB 14 20180709
014230 3229N 07336W 7702 02373 0129 +132 +102 181038 039 033 001 00
014300 3229N 07334W 7682 02397 0129 +129 +110 181037 037 032 000 00
014330 3229N 07331W 7652 02430 0133 +128 +109 180035 036 031 000 00
014400 3229N 07329W 7652 02431 0132 +130 +112 176036 037 033 000 00
014430 3229N 07327W 7654 02431 0135 +128 +117 180035 036 030 000 00
014500 3229N 07324W 7653 02433 0138 +127 +116 180032 033 030 000 00
014530 3229N 07322W 7653 02436 0143 +128 +088 178036 037 029 001 00
014600 3229N 07320W 7654 02436 0142 +130 +088 180034 035 029 001 00
014630 3229N 07317W 7654 02439 0147 +127 +096 181033 034 029 001 00
014700 3229N 07315W 7653 02441 0145 +129 +107 180033 034 029 000 00
014730 3229N 07313W 7654 02442 0150 +126 +107 182032 032 030 000 00
014800 3229N 07310W 7654 02442 0152 +124 +101 186032 033 030 000 00
014830 3229N 07308W 7654 02445 0156 +122 +112 187033 033 031 000 00
014900 3229N 07306W 7653 02445 0154 +127 +106 189032 032 031 001 00
014930 3229N 07303W 7653 02448 0157 +127 +105 191031 031 030 002 00
015000 3229N 07301W 7652 02455 0167 +121 +112 189034 036 030 002 00
015030 3229N 07259W 7652 02455 0170 +121 +106 180037 038 030 004 00
015100 3229N 07256W 7652 02457 0171 +121 +105 177040 041 032 004 00
015130 3229N 07254W 7652 02457 0178 +115 +110 177041 043 031 005 00
015200 3229N 07251W 7658 02453 0175 +122 +100 178032 034 035 010 00
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Re: ATL: CHRIS - Recon

#177 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 08, 2018 9:06 pm

000
URNT15 KWBC 090202
NOAA2 0503A CHRIS HDOB 15 20180709
015230 3229N 07249W 7691 02418 0174 +124 +109 171031 032 030 005 00
015300 3229N 07247W 7696 02417 0177 +126 +097 174032 032 027 003 00
015330 3229N 07244W 7696 02418 0178 +130 +087 172032 032 025 001 00
015400 3229N 07242W 7697 02418 0182 +128 +084 171030 031 022 001 00
015430 3229N 07240W 7697 02420 0185 +127 +082 175029 030 021 000 00
015500 3229N 07238W 7695 02423 0189 +124 +076 175027 028 020 000 00
015530 3229N 07235W 7694 02425 0193 +123 +077 177026 027 019 000 00
015600 3229N 07233W 7695 02426 0197 +120 +077 178026 026 019 000 00
015630 3228N 07231W 7692 02429 0197 +120 +078 176024 025 017 001 00
015700 3228N 07228W 7694 02428 0198 +120 +077 180024 024 018 000 00
015730 3228N 07226W 7694 02430 0198 +121 +077 183023 024 017 000 00
015800 3228N 07224W 7689 02432 0198 +121 +077 183022 022 017 001 00
015830 3228N 07221W 7694 02431 0200 +120 +078 184022 023 017 001 00
015900 3228N 07219W 7697 02427 0193 +126 +072 185022 023 018 000 03
015930 3230N 07218W 7694 02430 0193 +128 +069 184024 024 /// /// 03
020000 3232N 07219W 7696 02430 0194 +128 +069 180024 024 016 001 00
020030 3234N 07221W 7688 02432 0196 +124 +075 178024 025 020 000 00
020100 3235N 07223W 7693 02431 0196 +124 +073 179025 025 019 000 00
020130 3237N 07225W 7693 02430 0198 +122 +075 177025 026 018 000 00
020200 3238N 07227W 7693 02429 0197 +122 +078 175026 026 019 000 00
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Re: ATL: CHRIS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#178 Postby CyclonicFury » Sun Jul 08, 2018 9:08 pm

Appears to be a bit weaker than the 00z BT estimate.
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Re: ATL: CHRIS - Recon

#179 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 08, 2018 9:09 pm

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Re: ATL: CHRIS - Recon

#180 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 08, 2018 9:15 pm

000
URNT15 KWBC 090212
NOAA2 0503A CHRIS HDOB 16 20180709
020230 3240N 07229W 7695 02428 0195 +123 +081 171026 026 019 000 00
020300 3242N 07231W 7695 02427 0192 +127 +071 168027 027 019 000 00
020330 3243N 07232W 7693 02428 0190 +129 +066 164027 027 020 000 00
020400 3245N 07234W 7694 02428 0191 +127 +071 165028 028 021 000 00
020430 3246N 07236W 7695 02427 0192 +126 +074 162027 027 021 001 00
020500 3248N 07238W 7695 02427 0190 +128 +072 160029 029 021 001 00
020530 3249N 07240W 7694 02427 0191 +126 +075 160029 029 022 001 00
020600 3251N 07242W 7696 02425 0193 +123 +086 161028 029 022 001 00
020630 3253N 07244W 7692 02426 0193 +120 +090 160028 028 022 002 00
020700 3254N 07246W 7693 02426 0193 +121 +089 158028 028 022 002 00
020730 3256N 07248W 7695 02426 0193 +120 +090 153027 028 022 003 00
020800 3258N 07249W 7694 02425 0193 +120 +091 151028 029 025 002 00
020830 3259N 07251W 7696 02424 0194 +119 +092 148028 029 025 003 00
020900 3301N 07253W 7692 02425 0192 +119 +094 144026 027 027 003 00
020930 3303N 07255W 7694 02424 0189 +123 +088 143026 026 028 002 00
021000 3304N 07256W 7695 02425 0191 +123 +085 134028 028 027 003 00
021030 3306N 07258W 7694 02424 0189 +124 +076 132029 029 029 002 00
021100 3308N 07300W 7694 02424 0188 +124 +079 131029 030 030 002 00
021130 3309N 07302W 7695 02423 0187 +125 +081 128030 031 029 002 00
021200 3311N 07304W 7695 02423 0187 +125 +083 130030 030 029 002 00
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