ATL: CHRIS - Post-Tropical

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Re: ATL: THREE - Recon

#81 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 07, 2018 9:36 am

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Re: ATL: THREE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#82 Postby OuterBanker » Sat Jul 07, 2018 9:38 am

I know I shouldn’t say anything until recon comes in. But, to me is sure seems like this exploded in the past twelve hours. It also appears the the llc got pulled under the cdo which was displaced to the northeast of the cdo this am. This would mean a shift to the west for the center. Recon will be interesting.
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Re: ATL: THREE - Recon

#83 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 07, 2018 9:43 am

000
URNT15 KNHC 071440
AF306 0103A CYCLONE HDOB 19 20180707
143100 3401N 07547W 9252 00829 0176 +201 +131 026023 025 032 000 00
143130 3359N 07545W 9248 00832 0175 +201 +133 023024 026 031 000 00
143200 3358N 07544W 9250 00830 0175 +200 +136 025021 023 031 000 03
143230 3357N 07542W 9251 00829 0176 +195 +139 030021 022 030 000 00
143300 3356N 07541W 9249 00829 0171 +204 +141 029014 020 030 000 00
143330 3355N 07539W 9249 00827 0170 +203 +142 034014 015 029 000 00
143400 3355N 07538W 9250 00825 0170 +200 +144 032015 016 032 000 00
143430 3354N 07536W 9249 00826 0170 +201 +146 035016 016 032 000 00
143500 3353N 07535W 9248 00826 0168 +205 +146 032017 018 033 001 00
143530 3352N 07533W 9250 00824 0173 +190 +148 027016 017 032 001 00
143600 3351N 07531W 9250 00826 0172 +196 +148 027017 017 035 004 00
143630 3350N 07530W 9246 00829 0177 +181 +147 036016 018 040 016 03
143700 3349N 07528W 9249 00823 0177 +178 +146 052019 021 049 026 00
143730 3348N 07527W 9244 00831 0173 +194 +144 051016 017 030 004 00
143800 3347N 07525W 9250 00826 0173 +195 +142 048015 016 020 000 00
143830 3346N 07524W 9248 00829 0172 +198 +143 050015 015 023 000 00
143900 3345N 07522W 9253 00824 0171 +198 +146 049016 016 029 002 00
143930 3345N 07521W 9251 00824 0176 +179 +148 061015 018 048 029 03
144000 3344N 07519W 9238 00835 0172 +190 +150 057013 018 048 023 00
144030 3343N 07518W 9256 00818 0176 +181 +148 066014 015 025 011 00
$$
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Re: ATL: THREE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#84 Postby shiny-pebble » Sat Jul 07, 2018 9:48 am

Looks like its just almost or at tropical storm status

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Re: ATL: THREE - Advisories

#85 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 07, 2018 9:53 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Three Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032018
1100 AM EDT Sat Jul 07 2018

...AIR FORCE PLANE CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE DEPRESSION...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.1N 74.8W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1015 MB...29.98 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests along the coast of North Carolina should monitor the
progress of this system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Three
was located near latitude 33.1 North, longitude 74.8 West. The
depression is moving toward the north near 2 mph (4 km/h), and
little motion is anticipated during the next 2 days. The depression
is forecast to begin moving toward the northeast by Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next several days,
and the depression could become a tropical storm later tonight or on
Sunday. An Air Force reconnaissance plane is currently approaching
the depression.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1015 mb (29.98 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by the depression are expected to increase
and affect portions of the coasts of North Carolina and the
mid-Atlantic states this weekend. These swells could cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila




Tropical Depression Three Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032018
1100 AM EDT Sat Jul 07 2018

Although the convection has increased this morning and it seems a
little better organized, surface observations and satellite
intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB indicate that the winds remain
at 25 kt. An Air Force reconnaissance aircraft will check the
depression later this morning, so we will have more information
about the intensity and structure of the depression later today.
The cyclone will remain over warm waters and in a relatively
low-shear environment for the next 2 to 3 days. Based on these
conditions, the NHC forecast calls for gradual strengthening at a
rate very close to the HCCA corrected consensus model. The cyclone
will most likely begin to acquire extratropical characteristics by
the end of the forecast period.

The depression is embedded within very weak steering currents, and
little motion is anticipated for the next 2 days. After that time,
the cyclone will be steered toward the northeast with increasing
forward speed within the southwesterly flow ahead of an approaching
mid-level trough. Guidance clearly indicates the cyclone's slow
motion during the next 2 days, and unanimously forecast the cyclone
to accelerate to the northeast thereafter. The NHC forecast is in
the middle of the guidance envelope, and very closely follows the
multi-model consensus.

Guidance continues to suggest that the forecast tropical-storm-force
winds associated with the cyclone will not reach the U.S. coast. On
this basis, no watches or warnings are required at this time,
however, interests along the North Carolina coast should monitor the
progress of the depression.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1500Z 33.1N 74.8W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 33.4N 74.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 08/1200Z 33.5N 74.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 09/0000Z 33.5N 73.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 09/1200Z 33.5N 72.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 10/1200Z 35.5N 70.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 11/1200Z 39.5N 64.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 12/1200Z 47.0N 54.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Avila
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Re: ATL: THREE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#86 Postby seahawkjd » Sat Jul 07, 2018 9:54 am

Its been windy and pouring rain in Morehead City for the past half hour or so. Is this the interaction between the front and the low pressure?
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Re: ATL: THREE - Recon

#87 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 07, 2018 10:18 am

000
URNT15 KNHC 071514
AF306 0103A CYCLONE HDOB 21 20180707
145100 3316N 07456W 9250 00821 0164 +198 +167 092010 011 016 000 00
145130 3315N 07455W 9254 00816 0164 +197 +168 094011 011 015 000 03
145200 3313N 07455W 9241 00827 0163 +197 +168 088012 012 015 000 00
145230 3312N 07455W 9253 00816 0162 +199 +169 095010 011 017 000 00
145300 3310N 07455W 9250 00819 0163 +195 +169 093010 011 018 000 00
145330 3309N 07454W 9246 00822 0161 +196 +170 089010 011 019 000 00
145400 3307N 07454W 9254 00815 0163 +198 +169 092011 011 020 000 03
145430 3306N 07454W 9250 00820 0164 +197 +169 092011 012 020 000 00
145500 3304N 07454W 9250 00822 0165 +196 +169 095011 011 019 000 00
145530 3302N 07454W 9246 00825 0163 +200 +169 092011 011 019 000 00
145600 3301N 07454W 9254 00818 0164 +199 +169 098012 013 019 000 00
145630 3259N 07454W 9248 00820 0164 +192 +169 103012 013 019 000 00
145700 3258N 07454W 9247 00822 0164 +193 +170 095012 013 021 000 00
145730 3256N 07454W 9254 00816 0164 +195 +170 096012 013 019 000 00
145800 3255N 07454W 9249 00820 0162 +196 +169 095011 012 020 000 00
145830 3253N 07454W 9250 00816 0161 +196 +169 099012 012 018 000 00
145900 3251N 07454W 9250 00818 0161 +195 +168 098011 012 018 000 00
145930 3250N 07455W 9248 00819 0161 +195 +168 107010 011 018 000 00
150000 3248N 07455W 9256 00810 0159 +195 +168 130009 009 017 000 00
150030 3247N 07456W 9250 00818 0161 +191 +169 131010 011 021 000 00
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Re: ATL: THREE - Recon

#88 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 07, 2018 10:19 am

Image
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Re: ATL: THREE - Recon

#89 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 07, 2018 10:19 am

000
URNT15 KNHC 071517
AF306 0103A CYCLONE HDOB 22 20180707
150100 3246N 07456W 9246 00819 0160 +190 +169 134014 014 020 000 00
150130 3244N 07457W 9252 00813 0159 +190 +169 142016 017 024 000 00
150200 3243N 07458W 9248 00813 0156 +193 +168 171014 016 030 001 03
150230 3242N 07459W 9255 00807 0157 +186 +168 232010 013 029 002 00
150300 3242N 07501W 9258 00804 0163 +168 +166 291007 008 030 006 00
150330 3242N 07503W 9248 00813 0164 +168 +162 355005 008 027 003 00
150400 3242N 07504W 9254 00809 0166 +167 +157 029002 004 025 003 03
150430 3240N 07505W 9247 00818 0163 +179 +152 231003 006 /// /// 03
150500 3239N 07504W 9252 00813 0162 +185 +151 235010 010 021 000 00
150530 3238N 07503W 9249 00818 0162 +190 +150 233012 012 017 001 00
150600 3237N 07501W 9250 00815 0163 +190 +152 233011 013 017 000 00
150630 3236N 07500W 9249 00818 0163 +190 +154 225011 012 017 000 00
150700 3235N 07458W 9248 00820 0164 +188 +156 226012 013 019 000 03
150730 3234N 07457W 9248 00819 0164 +188 +158 233013 014 022 004 00
150800 3233N 07456W 9248 00819 0167 +180 +160 242013 014 026 005 00
150830 3232N 07454W 9247 00822 0167 +181 +159 234013 014 028 006 00
150900 3231N 07453W 9251 00820 0166 +189 +158 226017 019 019 001 00
150930 3229N 07452W 9246 00821 0165 +191 +159 219019 019 024 000 00
151000 3228N 07450W 9252 00818 0165 +192 +160 220021 022 028 000 00
151030 3227N 07449W 9250 00820 0166 +190 +161 232027 029 028 000 00
$$
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Re: ATL: THREE - Recon

#90 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 07, 2018 10:22 am

000
URNT15 KNHC 071520
AF306 0103A CYCLONE HDOB 23 20180707
151100 3226N 07447W 9242 00830 0167 +192 +163 232025 026 028 000 00
151130 3225N 07446W 9253 00820 0170 +184 +164 230026 027 028 001 00
151200 3224N 07445W 9251 00822 0170 +190 +165 229025 027 028 000 00
151230 3223N 07443W 9253 00822 0172 +190 +165 231025 026 026 000 00
151300 3222N 07442W 9249 00827 0173 +190 +166 235026 026 025 000 00
151330 3221N 07440W 9252 00825 0174 +190 +167 233026 027 026 000 00
151400 3220N 07439W 9248 00830 0175 +189 +167 231027 027 024 000 00
151430 3219N 07438W 9248 00830 0175 +190 +168 225028 028 024 000 00
151500 3218N 07436W 9250 00830 0175 +194 +169 224027 028 024 000 00
151530 3217N 07435W 9248 00832 0177 +193 +169 224026 027 023 000 03
151600 3215N 07434W 9250 00831 0178 +195 +169 226026 026 025 000 00
151630 3214N 07432W 9248 00833 0178 +195 +170 227025 026 025 000 00
151700 3213N 07431W 9252 00831 0180 +191 +171 224024 026 024 001 00
151730 3212N 07430W 9250 00833 0180 +192 +171 224026 027 025 000 00
151800 3211N 07428W 9254 00831 0181 +190 +171 224026 028 025 000 00
151830 3210N 07427W 9248 00836 0181 +190 +172 223026 027 026 000 00
151900 3209N 07425W 9249 00835 0181 +191 +172 224022 026 026 000 00
151930 3208N 07424W 9250 00835 0182 +193 +172 226023 023 025 000 00
152000 3207N 07423W 9254 00831 0182 +191 +172 222024 024 024 000 00
152030 3206N 07421W 9248 00837 0183 +190 +172 222024 025 025 000 00
$$
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Re: ATL: THREE - Recon

#91 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 07, 2018 10:24 am

Image
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Re: ATL: THREE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#92 Postby Ian2401 » Sat Jul 07, 2018 10:25 am

Why are the pressures the recon are finding so high? Lowest I've seen is only 1016 - yeesh. Have they made a dive for the center yet?
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Re: ATL: THREE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#93 Postby CyclonicFury » Sat Jul 07, 2018 10:27 am

Ian2401 wrote:Why are the pressures the recon are finding so high? Lowest I've seen is only 1016 - yeesh. Have they made a dive for the center yet?

The depression is in a very high MSLP environment.
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Re: ATL: THREE - Recon

#94 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 07, 2018 10:44 am

000
URNT15 KNHC 071540
AF306 0103A CYCLONE HDOB 25 20180707
153100 3157N 07414W 9249 00842 0187 +192 +173 222020 020 /// /// 03
153130 3158N 07415W 9248 00842 0187 +195 +173 217019 020 023 000 00
153200 3159N 07417W 9249 00841 0185 +195 +173 218019 019 024 000 00
153230 3200N 07418W 9250 00837 0186 +190 +173 219020 020 024 000 00
153300 3201N 07420W 9250 00839 0187 +187 +174 215020 021 025 000 03
153330 3202N 07419W 9251 00836 0185 +191 +174 218024 025 /// /// 03
153400 3203N 07418W 9244 00841 0185 +190 +174 223025 025 /// /// 03
153430 3202N 07416W 9250 00837 0184 +196 +175 224023 024 025 000 00
153500 3201N 07415W 9249 00839 0186 +194 +175 224023 023 023 000 00
153530 3200N 07414W 9251 00838 0187 +193 +174 222023 024 023 000 00
153600 3158N 07412W 9250 00841 0188 +195 +173 224024 024 025 000 00
153630 3157N 07411W 9249 00838 0186 +191 +172 223023 024 024 000 00
153700 3156N 07409W 9243 00841 0183 +188 +173 227023 025 024 001 00
153730 3155N 07408W 9252 00832 0181 +190 +173 229023 025 025 000 03
153800 3155N 07406W 9248 00835 0179 +191 +173 224025 025 /// /// 03
153830 3156N 07405W 9249 00833 0180 +191 +173 216024 025 024 000 00
153900 3158N 07405W 9252 00831 0180 +192 +174 213024 024 024 000 00
153930 3200N 07405W 9251 00830 0178 +195 +174 210023 024 024 000 00
154000 3201N 07406W 9250 00830 0177 +195 +174 210024 024 025 000 00
154030 3203N 07406W 9249 00832 0177 +195 +174 212024 024 025 000 00
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Re: ATL: THREE - Recon

#95 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 07, 2018 10:55 am

000
URNT15 KNHC 071551
AF306 0103A CYCLONE HDOB 26 20180707
154100 3205N 07406W 9249 00831 0175 +195 +173 211023 024 025 000 00
154130 3207N 07406W 9249 00831 0176 +195 +173 210022 023 025 000 00
154200 3208N 07406W 9251 00827 0175 +193 +174 207023 024 026 000 00
154230 3210N 07406W 9248 00831 0175 +192 +174 209025 025 025 000 00
154300 3212N 07407W 9250 00827 0174 +194 +174 208024 026 025 000 00
154330 3213N 07407W 9248 00830 0173 +192 +174 207024 025 024 000 00
154400 3215N 07407W 9249 00829 0173 +190 +174 206025 026 024 000 00
154430 3217N 07407W 9246 00829 0173 +190 +175 203024 024 025 000 00
154500 3219N 07407W 9245 00835 0176 +190 +174 202024 024 027 000 00
154530 3221N 07407W 9250 00827 0174 +194 +174 201024 025 027 000 03
154600 3223N 07407W 9251 00827 0173 +195 +172 206025 025 029 000 00
154630 3225N 07408W 9248 00829 0173 +193 +172 203025 026 029 000 00
154700 3227N 07408W 9245 00830 0171 +195 +172 199026 026 028 001 00
154730 3229N 07408W 9248 00830 0173 +192 +173 201025 026 029 000 03
154800 3230N 07408W 9245 00830 0170 +195 +172 198027 027 029 000 00
154830 3232N 07408W 9252 00824 0170 +195 +172 197027 027 029 000 00
154900 3234N 07409W 9246 00830 0170 +195 +171 193027 027 029 000 00
154930 3236N 07409W 9249 00825 0169 +196 +172 195027 028 030 000 00
155000 3238N 07409W 9250 00825 0170 +194 +172 195028 028 028 000 00
155030 3240N 07409W 9244 00829 0169 +194 +171 196027 028 028 000 00
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Re: ATL: THREE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#96 Postby Kazmit » Sat Jul 07, 2018 11:13 am

Looking pretty good.

Image
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Re: ATL: THREE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#97 Postby seahawkjd » Sat Jul 07, 2018 11:21 am

Is recon still going?
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Re: ATL: THREE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#98 Postby AnnularCane » Sat Jul 07, 2018 11:25 am

seahawkjd wrote:Is recon still going?



Already there.
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Re: ATL: THREE - Recon

#99 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 07, 2018 11:33 am

URNT15 KNHC 071630
AF306 0103A CYCLONE HDOB 30 20180707
162100 3250N 07510W 9257 00804 0149 +191 +174 357007 009 024 001 00
162130 3249N 07511W 9251 00805 0149 +191 +175 036004 005 023 000 00
162200 3248N 07512W 9248 00812 0153 +183 +175 060003 006 022 003 00
162230 3246N 07514W 9244 00814 0152 +187 +173 071005 005 023 001 00
162300 3245N 07515W 9252 00807 0152 +192 +171 084005 005 020 000 00
162330 3244N 07516W 9248 00810 0151 +195 +170 056006 006 020 000 00
162400 3243N 07518W 9248 00810 0151 +195 +170 038007 007 020 001 00
162430 3242N 07519W 9250 00809 0152 +191 +170 032006 007 020 000 00
162500 3241N 07520W 9254 00805 0156 +182 +170 323004 007 035 009 00
162530 3240N 07522W 9247 00811 0160 +169 +169 291007 008 035 009 00
162600 3238N 07523W 9250 00805 0156 +170 +166 291007 008 035 009 00
162630 3237N 07524W 9250 00804 0154 +171 +161 314003 006 032 010 00
162700 3236N 07526W 9250 00803 0149 +181 +156 309001 002 030 008 00
162730 3235N 07527W 9248 00804 0153 +169 +154 359002 002 027 010 00
162800 3234N 07528W 9251 00802 0149 +182 +151 004002 003 024 004 00
162830 3233N 07530W 9248 00805 0147 +188 +151 352003 004 022 003 00
162900 3232N 07531W 9254 00798 0146 +190 +154 348003 004 022 000 00
162930 3230N 07532W 9248 00804 0146 +190 +155 349003 004 022 001 00
163000 3229N 07534W 9251 00799 0144 +192 +158 355005 007 023 000 00
163030 3228N 07535W 9252 00798 0142 +194 +161 001008 009 022 000 00
$$
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Re: ATL: THREE - Recon

#100 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 07, 2018 11:36 am

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