ATL: CHRIS - Post-Tropical

[Florida1118]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 061729
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Jul 6 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Beryl, located over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean about a
thousand miles east-southeast of the Lesser Antilles.

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a well-defined but
still weak low pressure system located a few hundred miles
southeast of the North Carolina coast are gradually becoming better
organized, although surface pressures in the area remain high.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for additional
development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to
form over the next couple of days while it moves slowly
northwestward and stalls or meanders near the coast of North
Carolina over the weekend. Interests along the North Carolina and
South Carolina coasts should monitor the progress of this system
during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

[chaser1]

Could they just call this PTC 3, or are we too far out from needing watches or warnings?

I guess you're right? My guess is that by 11:00pm tonight, it'll either be that (PTC 3) or T.D. #3 if for little other reason that NHC might be
concerned that the public remain aware during the weekend. As for distance from the coast and time before
conditions begin affecting the Carolina's, I'd guess that at minimum slow motion toward the west in conjunction with continued deepening that
there'd be the increase risk to offshore mariners but especially the concern of undertow, beach erosion, and possible low coastal
area minor flooding at times of high tide. The more I think about it the more I think that PTC 3 might seem more likely then T.D. #3
at this time given its slow organization process.

[wxman57]

NHC will only issue a PTC advisory for a disturbance that is predicted to produce tropical storm or greater winds over a coastal location within 48 hrs. One could argue that the best chance of this disturbance impacting the Carolinas would be late Sunday at the earliest, perhaps Monday. However, I think it may already qualify as a depression. Perhaps they'll call it one this afternoon or this evening and initiate advisories. I have it remaining offshore through Tuesday morning then accelerating NE and impacting Nova Scotia east of Halifax next Friday. TS winds remaining offshore.

[CrazyC83]

Assuming no significant fall off of convection, I'd guess we'd see 96L classified as a depression by 11:00pm. Crazy to think we could have two July hurricane's out there at the same time. Would have to qualify as the earliest that's ever occurred in the Atlantic, right??

I think that is right! I believe Dennis was a TS in the brief period Cindy was a hurricane, and Emily hadn't yet taken off until a couple days after Dennis made landfall in 2005.

[EquusStorm]

July 1916 had two hurricanes active I think a day apart, I'd have to check specifics to see if they were both of that intensity simultaneously. But that was later in July, this would be earlier

[cycloneye]

First mission on Saturday afternoon.

Code: Select all

EPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0105 PM EDT FRI 06 JULY 2018
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 07/1100Z TO 08/1100Z JULY 2018
         TCPOD NUMBER.....18-043 CORRECTION

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. SUSPECT AREA (EAST OF CAROLINA COAST)
       FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 71          FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 72
       A. 07/1500Z                   A. 08/0600Z
       B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST         B. AFXXX 0203A CYCLONE
       C. 07/1200Z                   C. 08/0300Z
       D. 33.2N 74.4W                D. 33.5N 74.5W
       E. 07/1430Z TO 07/1830Z       E. 08/0530Z TO 08/0900Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT           F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

       FLIGHT THREE - NOAA 42
       A. 08/1030Z
       B. NOAA2 0303A CYCLONE
       C. 08/0830Z
       D. 33.5N 74.5W
       E. 08/1000Z TO 08/1500Z <-----DATES CORRECTED
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

   

[Alyono]

now the EC totally drops this

[NotSparta]

now the EC totally drops this

It also initialized Beryl as an open wave, EC not doing so well lately

[txwatcher91]

now the EC totally drops this

I would lean towards the GFS/UK idea, they did better earlier this year with things and the Euro seems to be struggling with TC's so far this year.

[OuterBanker]

now the EC totally drops this

Yes, and now no model brings it ashore.

Should kick up some nice surf. If we can only get a 10 kt wind out of the southwest to clean up the surf it would be perfect.

Beautiful weekend with great surf would be ideal.

[CyclonicFury]

This appears to be a tropical depression already. However, based on the light winds and high pressure, it probably won't be classified yet.

[Siker]

Judging by the spaghetti mess on weather.us, 12z EPS seems as aggressive as the 00z, in contrast to the operational run.

[Siker]

Looks like it's TD3 now. Or it could be a PTC, I don't know what those look like in this format:

AL, 03, 2018070618, , BEST, 0, 320N, 737W, 25, 1016, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1020, 120, 50, 35, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, THREE, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 009, TRANSITIONED, alA62018 to al032018,

[HurricaneBelle]

 https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1015327272205799424

[NotSparta]

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/ is showing a TD.

AL032018 - Tropical Depression INVEST No Data Available

[Hypercane_Kyle]

now the EC totally drops this

The Euro has done a pitiful job at detecting TC genesis with both Beryl and now TD3. I really hope this isn't a trend for the ECMWF as we approach the heart of the season.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Three Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032018
500 PM EDT Fri Jul 06 2018

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...
...EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.2N 73.8W
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1016 MB...30.01 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests along the coast of North Carolina should monitor the
progress of this system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of newly formed Tropical
Depression Three was located near latitude 32.2 North, longitude
73.8 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near
5 mph (7 km/h). The depression should slow down and meander of well
offshore of the coast of North Carolina through Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm on Saturday,
with gradual strengthening expected through Monday. A
reconnaissance plane is scheduled to investigate the cyclone on
Saturday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1016 mb (30.01 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila



Tropical Depression Three Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032018
500 PM EDT Fri Jul 06 2018

The area of low pressure located a few hundred miles southeast of
the North Carolina coast has developed enough deep convection
with a well-defined circulation to be classified as a tropical
depression. This is supported by a Dvorak T-number of 2.0 from
TAFB, and an earlier ASCAT pass with 25-kt winds, which is the
initial intensity assigned to the depression. Given that the system
is moving over warm waters and in a low-shear environment, gradual
strengthening is indicated, and the NHC forecast shows the
depression becoming a tropical storm on Saturday. Additional
intensification could occur by the end of the forecast period when
the cyclone moves northeastward away from the U.S coast and
interacts with a mid-level trough. The intensity forecast is very
close to the SHIPS model and the Corrected Consensus HCCA.

The depression is moving toward the north-northwest or 335 degrees
at about 4 knots. The tropical cyclone is currently located on the
southwestern edge of the subtropical ridge, and this weak flow
pattern should keep the depression on the same slow track for the
next 24 hours or so. After that time, the steering currents are
expected to collapse, and the cyclone should begin to meander for a
couple of days well off the coast of North Carolina. Then a
mid-level trough is expected to approach from the west and force
the system on a northeastward track.

Most of the guidance suggests that the tropical-storm-force winds
associated with the cyclone will occur in the eastern quadrant
well away from the U.S. coast. On this basis, no watches or
warnings are required for the U.S coast at this time, however,
interests along the North Carolina coast should monitor the
progress of this system.

Due to a technical issue, the wind speed probability values at land
locations in the wind speed probability text product are too high
and do not reflect reduced probabilities that are expected over
land. The wind speed probability values provided in the graphics
on the NHC website at hurricanes.gov, and in the publicly
disseminated grid files do correctly reflect the reduced
probabilities over land. As a result, users should refer to the NHC
website graphics and gridded products instead of the text product
for the most accurate wind speed probability values until this
problem is resolved.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/2100Z 32.2N 73.8W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 32.9N 74.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 33.7N 74.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 08/0600Z 34.0N 74.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 08/1800Z 34.0N 74.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 09/1800Z 33.5N 73.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 10/1800Z 33.5N 73.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 11/1800Z 36.5N 69.5W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila

[OuterBanker]

I thought that this year this wouldn't happen til August. Could all the prognosticators be wrong. Or is this week a fluke?

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Organizing nicely, should be Tropical Storm Chris by tomorrow.

[Kazmit]

I like how the NHC's intensity forecast is less conservative for this one. So many storms this year have gotten stronger than forecasted.