ATL: CHRIS - Post-Tropical

[seahawkjd]

I thought the discussion said that the intensity numbers were in error in the text but fixed in the graphic. Am I mistaken on what they meant?

[Siker]

I like how the NHC's intensity forecast is less conservative for this one. So many storms this year have gotten stronger than forecasted.

You jinxed it, now this one will also become stronger than forecast.

[seahawkjd]

What is the deal with the low pressure that is down around Georgia? Will that have much effect on the track of the main system?

[lrak]

The last visible satellite pictures are very nice. Looks like a classic

I mean I like to see all the lower level clouds swirl.

[HurricaneBelle]

What is the deal with the low pressure that is down around Georgia? Will that have much effect on the track of the main system?

That's an upper low moving west, away from TD 3

[cycloneye]

TXNT27 KNES 070014
TCSNTL

A. 03L (NONAME)

B. 06/2345Z

C. 32.4N

D. 73.9W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T1.5/1.5/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED OVER THE CENTER OF
CIRCULATION. SYSTEM IS CHARACTERIZED BY CIRCULAR, TIGHTLY DEFINED CLOUD
LINES AND A CENTER OVER 1.25 DEGREES FROM A VERY SMALL COLD OVERCAST TO
THE SOUTH. THIS RESULTS IN A DT OF 1.5 USING THE SHEAR PATTERN. MET IS
1.0 WHILE PT IS 1.5. FT IS BASED ON PT DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
PRECISE CENTER LOCATION.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...TURK

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track:

Location: 32.4°N 74.0°W
Maximum Winds: 25 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1015 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1018 mb
Radius of Circulation: 180 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 50 NM

[TheStormExpert]

now the EC totally drops this

The Euro has done a pitiful job at detecting TC genesis with both Beryl and now TD3. I really hope this isn't a trend for the ECMWF as we approach the heart of the season.

The Euro hasn’t been living up to its name lately. First the random TC’s off the SE U.S. coast to now not even doing anything with Beryl and TD #3.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Three Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032018
1100 PM EDT Fri Jul 06 2018

...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN WHILE IT MEANDERS WELL OFF THE
CAROLINA COASTLINE THIS WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.6N 74.1W
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1015 MB...29.98 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests along the coast of North Carolina should monitor the
progress of this system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Three
was located near latitude 32.6 North, longitude 74.1 West. The
depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h)
and a slow northward motion is expected overnight and Saturday.
A decrease in forward speed is expected by Saturday night, and the
depression is forecast to meander well off the southeast U.S.
coastline on Sunday and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next few days,
and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm on
Saturday. An Air Force reconnaissance plane is scheduled to
investigate the cyclone on Saturday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1015 mb (29.98 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by the depression are expected to increase
and affect portions of the coasts of North Carolina and the
mid-Atlantic states this weekend. These swells could cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Tropical Depression Three Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032018
1100 PM EDT Fri Jul 06 2018

The depression has not become any better organized since the
previous advisory. Deep convection has decreased a little near the
center, but some banding features are still evident on the south
side of the circulation. The initial intensity is held at 25 kt,
in general agreement with the Dvorak classifications from TAFB and
SAB, and automated values from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin.

The system is currently over the warm Gulf Stream waters, and it is
expected to remain over this current during the next several days.
These favorable oceanic conditions combined with light to moderate
wind shear and a fair amount of moisture near the system should
allow for gradual intensification. The SHIPS model is the most
aggressive aid and shows the cyclone becoming a hurricane in about 3
days with additional strengthening thereafter. On the other hand,
the HMON model shows no strengthening through the period. The NHC
intensity forecast continues to lean toward the high end of the
guidance due to the conducive environmental conditions for
strengthening.

The depression is moving north-northwestward at 5 kt steered by the
flow on the western periphery of a subtropical ridge. A slow
north-northwest to north motion is expected during the next 24 hours
while the steering pattern holds. However, by Saturday night, the
steering currents are forecast to collapse and the cyclone will
likely drift eastward or southeastward on Sunday and Monday.
Thereafter, a shortwave trough is anticipated to approach the system
and it should finally sweep the cyclone northeastward well east of
the U.S. coast beginning on Tuesday. The latest HWRF model run
brings the system inland over the southeastern U.S., but this model
is an outlier, and the remainder of the guidance shows a track well
offshore of the U.S. coast. The NHC track forecast is a tad to the
east of the previous one to come into better agreement with the
latest consensus models.

Most of the guidance suggests that the tropical-storm-force winds
associated with the cyclone will occur primarily to the east of the
cyclone's center well away from the U.S. coast. Therefore, no
watches or warnings are required for the U.S coast at this time,
however, interests along the North Carolina coast should monitor the
progress of this system.

The technical issue with the NHC wind speed probability text product
at land locations has been resolved. The wind speed probability
values provided in the text product, the graphics on the NHC website
at hurricanes.gov, and the publicly disseminated grid files will all
correctly reflect the reduced probabilities over land.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0300Z 32.6N 74.1W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 07/1200Z 33.2N 74.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 08/0000Z 33.7N 74.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 08/1200Z 33.7N 74.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 09/0000Z 33.6N 73.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 10/0000Z 33.6N 73.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 11/0000Z 34.7N 71.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 12/0000Z 38.0N 67.0W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[Steve]

NAM 12km and 3km both spin and deepen off the NC Coast. Not sure how close it will get, but swells would be all along the coast if it’s right.

[abajan]

Tropical Depression Three Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032018
500 AM EDT Sat Jul 07 2018

...DISORGANIZED DEPRESSION SLOWING DOWN OFF THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.2N 74.6W
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1015 MB...29.98 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests along the coast of North Carolina should monitor the
progress of this system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Three
was located near latitude 33.2 North, longitude 74.6 West. The
depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 5 mph (7
km/h). The depression is expected to meander off the coasts of the
Carolinas for the next several days. By Tuesday, a faster
northeastward motion is expected to begin.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next few days,
and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm by Sunday.
An Air Force reconnaissance plane is scheduled to investigate the
cyclone later today.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1015 mb (29.98 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by the depression are expected to increase
and affect portions of the coasts of North Carolina and the
mid-Atlantic states this weekend. These swells could cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

[Ian2401]

Convection has significantly increased since last night

[TheStormExpert]

May very well be on its way to being named Chris @ 11am.

[cycloneye]

May very well be on its way to being named Chris @ 11am.

Plane is flying towards TD 3 so they will wait for the data from them.

[NDG]

May very well be on its way to being named Chris @ 11am.

Question is if there's any TS force winds, I can't find any from any of the nearby bouys, the recon will answer that for us.

[cycloneye]

Plane is on route to TD 3.

[cycloneye]

Decending to operational altitude.

000
URNT15 KNHC 071410
AF306 0103A CYCLONE HDOB 16 20180707
140100 3422N 07748W 4102 07413 0409 -165 -258 321002 004 /// /// 03
140130 3422N 07745W 4172 07293 0409 -165 -254 151001 002 /// /// 03
140200 3423N 07742W 4252 07155 0406 -159 -232 224003 004 /// /// 03
140230 3423N 07738W 4393 06913 0397 -143 -206 257005 006 /// /// 03
140300 3424N 07735W 4530 06679 0384 -124 -205 270004 004 /// /// 03
140330 3424N 07731W 4658 06466 0372 -108 -208 267003 004 /// /// 03
140400 3424N 07728W 4791 06249 0362 -093 -198 245002 003 /// /// 03
140430 3425N 07725W 4961 05981 0350 -077 -192 297003 004 /// /// 03
140500 3425N 07722W 5156 05681 0334 -060 -157 328005 005 /// /// 03
140530 3426N 07718W 5358 05378 0318 -040 -133 332002 004 /// /// 03
140600 3426N 07715W 5576 05065 0181 -022 -151 335001 002 /// /// 03
140630 3427N 07712W 5807 04729 0186 -005 -131 070001 002 /// /// 03
140700 3427N 07709W 6044 04409 0191 +010 -092 133003 004 /// /// 03
140730 3427N 07707W 6287 04091 0199 +027 -092 100002 003 /// /// 03
140800 3428N 07704W 6542 03780 0200 +048 -089 077003 004 /// /// 03
140830 3428N 07701W 6701 03570 0186 +064 -086 052005 005 /// /// 03
140900 3429N 07659W 6720 03547 0188 +061 -083 045005 005 /// /// 03
140930 3429N 07657W 6700 03570 0189 +060 -077 050005 006 /// /// 03
141000 3429N 07655W 6854 03402 0211 +069 -068 065008 010 /// /// 03
141030 3429N 07652W 7108 03102 0216 +087 -060 056010 010 /// /// 03

[cycloneye]

000
URNT15 KNHC 071420
AF306 0103A CYCLONE HDOB 17 20180707
141100 3430N 07650W 7481 02680 0229 +106 -055 045011 012 /// /// 03
141130 3430N 07648W 7850 02276 0230 +127 -043 039012 013 /// /// 03
141200 3430N 07645W 8219 01889 0235 +143 -016 040017 018 /// /// 03
141230 3431N 07643W 8599 01502 0234 +162 -004 044018 018 /// /// 03
141300 3431N 07641W 8984 01127 0234 +184 +014 038019 020 /// /// 03
141330 3431N 07638W 9250 00859 0214 +201 +031 037021 022 027 000 00
141400 3432N 07636W 9255 00838 0198 +202 +048 039021 021 029 000 00
141430 3432N 07634W 9252 00847 0198 +205 +060 036021 022 030 000 00
141500 3432N 07633W 9253 00845 0198 +200 +070 031022 023 031 000 00
141530 3432N 07631W 9274 00827 0198 +200 +081 032022 023 034 000 00
141600 3433N 07629W 9250 00846 0196 +199 +089 041024 024 032 000 00
141630 3433N 07627W 9249 00846 0197 +197 +095 040023 025 032 001 03
141700 3432N 07626W 9238 00855 0193 +204 +100 037024 024 027 000 00
141730 3431N 07624W 9256 00840 0194 +205 +103 037024 024 027 000 00
141800 3430N 07623W 9248 00848 0192 +205 +107 036024 025 027 000 00
141830 3429N 07621W 9252 00843 0194 +202 +110 034025 026 029 000 00
141900 3428N 07620W 9253 00842 0192 +204 +114 037026 027 029 000 00
141930 3427N 07619W 9250 00845 0193 +201 +116 036026 027 027 000 00
142000 3425N 07617W 9253 00842 0192 +201 +118 038027 027 027 000 00
142030 3424N 07616W 9250 00845 0191 +207 +120 039027 027 029 000 00
$$

[cycloneye]

Good winds.

000
URNT15 KNHC 071430
AF306 0103A CYCLONE HDOB 18 20180707
142100 3423N 07615W 9250 00843 0191 +203 +121 039027 028 028 001 00
142130 3422N 07613W 9252 00842 0193 +199 +124 041028 029 030 000 00
142200 3421N 07612W 9248 00845 0192 +197 +126 038026 028 029 000 00
142230 3420N 07610W 9254 00838 0191 +199 +129 029026 027 032 000 00
142300 3419N 07609W 9253 00841 0190 +201 +130 031025 025 031 000 00
142330 3418N 07608W 9250 00843 0191 +201 +132 030025 026 032 000 00
142400 3417N 07606W 9248 00843 0191 +199 +132 028027 028 033 000 00
142430 3415N 07605W 9252 00841 0190 +200 +134 027027 028 033 000 03
142500 3414N 07603W 9251 00841 0191 +195 +134 030026 027 038 001 00
142530 3413N 07602W 9245 00845 0191 +188 +134 033029 031 039 002 00
142600 3412N 07601W 9256 00835 0192 +185 +133 036027 030 041 008 00
142630 3411N 07559W 9245 00841 0191 +181 +131 031027 028 037 016 00
142700 3410N 07558W 9254 00836 0189 +190 +127 028027 028 037 001 00
142730 3409N 07556W 9249 00840 0189 +189 +126 027026 029 037 001 00
142800 3407N 07555W 9250 00836 0188 +190 +127 029022 025 035 004 00
142830 3406N 07554W 9249 00836 0185 +191 +127 030022 022 037 003 00
142900 3405N 07552W 9249 00835 0185 +188 +129 025024 026 037 001 00
142930 3404N 07551W 9257 00826 0185 +185 +130 024024 029 038 006 00
143000 3403N 07549W 9249 00834 0180 +197 +130 026021 022 037 001 00
143030 3402N 07548W 9250 00832 0178 +200 +130 024022 023 035 001 00

[cycloneye]

Plane find good winds.

031 039 002 00
030 041 008 00