WPAC: SON-TINH - Tropical Depression

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Re: WPAC: SON-TINH - Tropical Storm

#61 Postby galaxy401 » Tue Jul 17, 2018 7:11 pm

How strong do you think it was at landfall?
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Re: WPAC: SON-TINH - Tropical Storm

#62 Postby 1900hurricane » Tue Jul 17, 2018 7:43 pm

I'd guess mid-grade TS, around 50-55 kt. I'd like to find a surface pressure to use KZC with and see what that would yield to refine my estimate.
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Re: WPAC: SON-TINH - Tropical Storm + TD112w

#63 Postby Twisted-core » Tue Jul 17, 2018 9:43 pm

Image

Ukmet thinks this TD112w will be absorbed by another vort then meander and then intensify into a typhoon.


https://imgur.com/3pqIV7A
Last edited by Twisted-core on Wed Jul 18, 2018 1:17 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: WPAC: SON-TINH - Tropical Storm

#64 Postby NotoSans » Tue Jul 17, 2018 9:57 pm

1900hurricane wrote:I'd guess mid-grade TS, around 50-55 kt. I'd like to find a surface pressure to use KZC with and see what that would yield to refine my estimate.


The landfall pressure given by China's meteorological department is 983 mb, which (presumably) should be based on surface observations. Lemme see if I can find some data later, but probably the landfall pressure is near the 985 mb range.
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Re: WPAC: SON-TINH - Tropical Storm

#65 Postby 1900hurricane » Tue Jul 17, 2018 10:09 pm

NotoSans wrote:
1900hurricane wrote:I'd guess mid-grade TS, around 50-55 kt. I'd like to find a surface pressure to use KZC with and see what that would yield to refine my estimate.


The landfall pressure given by China's meteorological department is 983 mb, which (presumably) should be based on surface observations. Lemme see if I can find some data later, but probably the landfall pressure is near the 985 mb range.

Using ~985 mb and b-deck data, I get about 57 kt using r34 and 53 kt using roci. Looks like my original guess was pretty ok!
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Re: WPAC: SON-TINH - Tropical Storm

#66 Postby doomhaMwx » Tue Jul 17, 2018 10:56 pm

Now in the Gulf of Tonkin...

Image
Image
TS 1809 (Son-tinh)
Issued at 03:50 UTC, 18 July 2018

<Analysis at 03 UTC, 18 July>

Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N18°40' (18.7°)
E108°30' (108.5°)
Direction and speed of movement W 35 km/h (18 kt)
Central pressure 994 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area N 390 km (210 NM)
S 220 km (120 NM)
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Re: WPAC: SON-TINH - Tropical Storm

#67 Postby mrbagyo » Wed Jul 18, 2018 4:46 am

I can't access the Vinh radar. It's unavailable on the Vietnam weather bureau website, maybe bad web programming. :spam:
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Re: WPAC: SON-TINH - Tropical Storm

#68 Postby euro6208 » Wed Jul 18, 2018 5:20 am

Image

WDPN31 PGTW 180900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 11W (SON-TINH)
WARNING NR 12//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 11W (SON-TINH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 173 NM
SOUTHEAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THAT TS 11W REMAINS A COMPACT SYSTEM WITH A SMALL AREA OF DEEP AND
PERSISTENT CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 180600Z HIMAWARI VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS HEDGED BETWEEN DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND T3.0 (45
KNOTS) FROM RJTD AND AN ADT CI ESTIMATE OF T2.7 (39 KNOTS).
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOW TS 11W IS EXPERIENCING UNFAVORABLE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (25 TO 30 KNOTS) WHICH IS SLIGHTLY OFFSET BY
FAVORABLE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. POLEWARD OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO REMAIN
WEAK. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE GULF OF TONKIN ARE FAVORABLE,
RANGING BETWEEN 28 TO 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. TS 11W CONTINUES TO TRACK
WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) WHICH IS LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 11W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
EDGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STR. UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BUT
FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW FOR TS 11W TO SLOWLY
DECREASE IN INTENSITY TO 35 KNOTS BY TAU 12. TS 11W WILL MAKE
LANDFALL IN NORTHERN VIETNAM SHORTLY BEFORE TAU 12 AND THEN CONTINUE
TO TRACK INLAND AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 36. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
TIGHT AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: SON-TINH - Tropical Storm

#69 Postby euro6208 » Wed Jul 18, 2018 5:43 am

Image
Image
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Re: WPAC: SON-TINH - Tropical Storm

#70 Postby Alyono » Wed Jul 18, 2018 8:17 am

looks more like a 55 kt tropical storm now
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Re: WPAC: SON-TINH - Tropical Storm

#71 Postby mrbagyo » Wed Jul 18, 2018 8:31 am

Image
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Re: WPAC: SON-TINH - Tropical Storm

#72 Postby euro6208 » Wed Jul 18, 2018 9:07 am

Geez. May i ask how much ACE we have lost since the recon era?
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Re: WPAC: SON-TINH - Tropical Storm

#73 Postby euro6208 » Wed Jul 18, 2018 4:37 pm

Image

WTPN31 PGTW 182100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FINAL WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 11W (SON-TINH) WARNING NR 014
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181800Z --- NEAR 19.0N 105.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.0N 105.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 19.4N 103.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 20.1N 102.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
182100Z POSITION NEAR 19.1N 105.0E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 11W (SON-TINH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 122 NM
SOUTH OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
181434Z AMSU 89GHZ IMAGE INDICATE TS 12W CONSOLIDATED AS IT MADE
LANDFALL WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-
DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE SYSTEM CENTER PASSED ABOUT
15NM NORTH OF VINH, VIETNAM (48845), WHICH REPORTED WESTERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH MINIMUM SLP OF
994.5MB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0 FROM PGTW AND RJTD, AN ADT
ESTIMATE OF 2.9, AND A 181433Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 44 KNOTS. TS 11W
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING INLAND AND WILL DISSIPATE BY TAU 24
DUE TO INCREASED FRICTIONAL EFFECTS. OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON
THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM
WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z IS 12 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL
STORM 12W (AMPIL) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: SON-TINH - Tropical Storm

#74 Postby euro6208 » Wed Jul 18, 2018 4:45 pm

Image

Landfall intensity of 45 and 35 knots from JTWC and JMA? I think not. Probrably closer to 60/65 knots...Severely underestimated.
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Re: WPAC: SON-TINH - Tropical Storm

#75 Postby doomhaMwx » Thu Jul 19, 2018 5:22 am

Image

Image
TD
Issued at 01:15 UTC, 19 July 2018

<Analysis at 00 UTC, 19 July>

Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N19°00' (19.0°)
E105°00' (105.0°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 998 hPa
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Re: WPAC: SON-TINH - Tropical Storm

#76 Postby doomhaMwx » Thu Jul 19, 2018 6:25 am

Interestingly, some computer models, including the ECMWF, show Son-tinh or its remnants turning eastward and moving back into the Gulf of Tonkin on the next couple of days, and potentially reorganizing/restrengthening.

Image
Image
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Re: WPAC: SON-TINH - Tropical Storm

#77 Postby euro6208 » Thu Jul 19, 2018 7:02 am

Imran_doomhaMwx wrote:Interestingly, some computer models, including the ECMWF, show Son-tinh or its remnants turning eastward and moving back into the Gulf of Tonkin on the next couple of days, and potentially reorganizing/restrengthening.



Yup the models have been pretty robust over the past few days of Son-Tinh redeveloping...
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Re: WPAC: SON-TINH - Post-Tropical

#78 Postby euro6208 » Thu Jul 19, 2018 7:31 am

Here is the 00Z 96 hours euro...Yikes. That is some strengthening...

Image
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Re: WPAC: SON-TINH - Post-Tropical

#79 Postby euro6208 » Thu Jul 19, 2018 7:50 am

GFS much more calmer. Only 997 mb at Hainan landfall before racing towards Hong Kong.
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Re: WPAC: SON-TINH - Post-Tropical

#80 Postby euro6208 » Thu Jul 19, 2018 8:19 am

Image

12W AMPIL 180719 1200 21.5N 131.5E WPAC 40 989

Quite interesting...JTWC still has Son-Tinh at 40 knots despite being overland for a day or so and it looks to be organizing again...
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