WPAC: Ampil - Low

[1900hurricane]

A new Invest has been declared just east of the Philippines.

94W INVEST 180711 1800 11.5N 134.0E WPAC 15 0

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Will likely be merged with 92W.

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AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.7N
132.9E, APPROXIMATELY 202 NM NORTHWEST OF PALAU. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 121759Z SSMI 37GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE DEPICT A VERY BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH GENERALIZED
CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER. A 121316Z ASCAT PARTIAL PASS SHOWS 15-20
KNOT WIND BARBS LOCATED TO THE WEST. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED IN AN AREA OF EXCELLENT UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, MODERATE (15-
20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (29-30 CELSIUS). 94W IS LOCATED IN THE WESTERN PORTION
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MONSOON DEPRESSION-LIKE FEATURE TO THE EAST OF
THE PHILIPPINES. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM TRACKING TO THE
EASTWARD, EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS,
WITH DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE IN THE LATER TAUS AS IT MOVES AROUND THE
MONSOON DEPRESSION-LIKE FEATURE, AS SHOWN IN GFS AND ECMWF. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

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TXPQ23 KNES 122109
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (94W)

B. 12/2030Z

C. 10.9N

D. 131.2E

E. FIVE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR DATA. MOST
RECENT SUITE OF MICROWAVE DATA AND ANIMATED EIR AND SHORTWAVE IR IMAGERY
DO NOT INDICATE THAT A CLOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION EXISTS AT THIS
TIME. SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE CHARACTERIZED AS A SURFACE TROF. AS SUCH THE
DT AND PT ARE LESS THAN 1.0. FT IS BASED ON CONSTRAINTS PREVENTING THE
LOWERING OF THE FT AT NIGHT DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF DEVELOPMENT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...TURK

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THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 9.7N 132.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 132.4E, APPROXIMATELY
260 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 130049Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD
CIRCULATION WITH PRIMARILY FLARING CONVECTION LOCATED JUST OFFSET OF
THE CENTER, TO THE NORTHWEST, BUT BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO THE CENTER.
THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF EXCELLENT UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE, LOW (5-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND VERY
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-31 CELSIUS). 94W IS LOCATED IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MONSOON DEPRESSION-LIKE
FEATURE TO THE EAST OF THE PHILIPPINES. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE
SYSTEM TRACKING TO THE EAST BEFORE MOVING NORTHWARD, EMBEDDED IN THE
MONSOON TROUGH, OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WITH DEVELOPMENT
POSSIBLE IN THE LATER TAUS, AS SHOWN IN GFS AND ECMWF. THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY THAT IT WILL HAVE BINARY INTERACTION WITH INVEST 92W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

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94W INVEST
As of 06:00 UTC Jul 13, 2018:

Location: 9.9°N 133.5°E
Maximum Winds: 20 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1003 mb

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THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 9.7N 132.9E, HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

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It's back.

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
15.9N 133.1E, APPROXIMATELY 657 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB,
OKINAWA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH FORMATIVE BANDING PERSISTING OVER THE
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. A 151254Z AMSU 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS FRAGMENTED
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A BROAD BUT DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 151211Z ASCAT AMBIGUITY ANALYSIS
INDICATES A WEAK, DEVELOPING CIRCULATION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON
TROUGH WITH 15 TO 25 KNOT WESTERLIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH A POINT SOURCE OVER THE LLCC AND
IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE TUTT POSITIONED TO THE
NORTHEAST. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
NEXT TWO DAYS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO
NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE TAIWAN / RYUKYU ISLANDS REGION. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS MEDIUM.

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THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 15.9N 133.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 130.4E, APPROXIMATELY
627 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 160125Z MHS METOP-A 89GHZ PARTIAL IMAGE
DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
FORMATIVE BANDING AND PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH IMPROVING POLEWARD
OUTFLOW LEADING INTO A TUTT LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST. A RECENT ASCAT
PASS SHOWS 15-20 KNOT WINDS IN THE EASTERN QUADRANT. GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. 94W IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD AND REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF
TAIWAN. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.

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WTPN21 PGTW 171000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
125 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18.6N 128.3E TO 23.3N 128.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 170900Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 19.3N 128.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 18.6N 127.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 128.1E, APPROXIMATELY
420 NM SOUTH OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD BUT CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
WITH POCKETS OF PERSISTING CONVECTION LOCATED OVER IT. A 170746Z MHS
89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH
DEEPENING CONVECTION PERSISTING PRIMARILY TO THE SOUTHEAST LOCATED
OVER IT. A 170105Z PARTIAL ASCAT PASS SHOWS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION
WITH PRIMARILY 5-10 KNOT WINDS NEAR THE CENTER WITH SOME 15 KNOT
WINDS WRAPPING IN, AND 20-25 KNOT WINDS LOCATED TO THE PERIPHERY,
NOT YET WRAPPING IN. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA
OF GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KNOTS),
AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS
DEPICT THE DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTH OR SLIGHTLY EAST BEFORE HEADING
NORTH AND INTENSIFYING. IN THE LATER TAUS THE MODELS SHOW A
NORTHWEST TRACK. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15
TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
181000Z.//
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[1900hurricane]

JMA expecting 94W to be upgradeable in about a day.

TD
Issued at 13:10 UTC, 17 July 2018

<Analysis at 12 UTC, 17 July>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N18°25' (18.4°)
E129°30' (129.5°)
Direction and speed of movement N 10 km/h (6 kt)
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 15 m/s (30 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23 m/s (45 kt)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 18 July>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N20°00' (20.0°)
E129°35' (129.6°)
Direction and speed of movement N Slow
Central pressure 996 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)

[1900hurricane]

94W is probably going to struggle with the TUTT for a couple of days still. Intense convection from the system and monsoon trough will eventually fill it, but that will take some time.

[euro6208]

The rampage of Asia continues.

WDPN32 PGTW 172100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W (TWELVE)
WARNING NR 01//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W (TWELVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 446 NM
SOUTH OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN
BROAD CIRCULATION WITH CONVECTION CONCENTRATED TO THE SOUTH. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON INFLOW IN
THE EIR LOOP AND A 171714Z AMSR2 MICROWAVE IMAGE DEMONSTRATING LOW
LEVEL WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER AND THE DEEP CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH.
A 171315Z ASCAT PASS REVEALS AN ELONGATED BUT CLOSED OFF CIRCULATION
WITH HIGHER 20 KT WINDS DISPLACED UP TO 90NM TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH
OF THE CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS IS BASED ON PGTW
AND RJTD DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T1.0 (25 KTS) AND
T1.5 (25 KTS). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT TD 12W IS
EXPERIENCING FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 TO 15 KNOTS) AND IS
LOCATED IN AN AREA OF WARM SSTS (28 TO 30 DEGREES C). TD 12W IS
DEVELOPING A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AS IT TAPS INTO THE
TUTT TO ITS EAST, AND ALSO HAS STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT (28 TO 30
DEGREES CELSIUS). TD 12W HAS BEEN TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH.
A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING AND SETS THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY.
B. IN THE FIRST 72 HOURS, TD 12W IS FORECAST TO TURN EASTWARD,
CARRIED BY THE MONSOON WESTERLIES TO ITS SOUTH. THE DEGREE OF
EASTWARD BOWING VARIES BY MODEL, WITH NAVGEM AND HWRF FURTHER TO THE
EAST, GFS CLOSER TO THE CENTER MODEL CONSENSUS, AND ECMWF A WESTERN
OUTLIER, PREDICTED A MORE GRADUAL TURN TO THE EAST AND EASTWARD JOG.
AFTER TAU 36-48, A SOUTHWEST-TO-NORTHEAST DIAGONALLY ORIENTED NEAR-
EQUATORIAL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN TO THE SOUTHEAST, TURNING TD 12W BACK
TO A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. POLEWARD OUTFLOW FROM TD 12W WILL CONTINUE
TO BE ENHANCED BY THE TUTT TO ITS EAST, UNTIL IT MOVES NORTHEAST AND
LOSES ITS FAVORABLE ORIENTATION WITH REGARD TO THE TUTT FOR OUTFLOW
BY TAU 36. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND THE NEARBY TUTT
WILL ALLOW FOR INTENSIFICATION IN THE INITIAL TAUS. AFTER TAU 36
WHEN TD 12W MOVES PAST THE TUTT, THE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION WILL
SLOW. THERE IS A WIDE SPREAD IN MODEL DEPICTIONS OF THE RATES AND
DEGREE OF EASTWARD TURN. THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS
PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THE JTWC TRACK IS HEDGED BEHIND
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, IN FAVOR OF A SLOWER TURN TO THE EAST.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, TD 12W WILL TRACK TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF NER EXTENSION TO ITS SOUTHEAST. MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE
SPREAD BETWEEN MIYAKOJIMA ISLAND AND OKINAWA, WITH THE LAST SEVERAL
MODEL RUNS TRENDING THE MULTIMODEL CONSENSUS NORTH TOWARDS OKINAWA.
MESOSCALE MODELS PREDICT A STRONG TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH OR
BORDERLINE TYPHOON STRENGTH SYSTEM IN THE LATER FORECAST TAUS, AS
SSTS WILL BE LOWER (26 TO 28 DEGREES C) AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL BE
LIMITED BY THE STR TO THE NORTH. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL IN
POOR AGREEMENT, ESPECIALLY REGARDING TRACK. THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS
HEDGED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
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WDPN32 PGTW 180900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W (TWELVE)
WARNING NR 03//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 12W (TWELVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 439
NM SOUTH OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TD 12W IS CONTINUING TO
CONSOLIDATE WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION LOCATED TO THE SOUTH
OF THE ELONGATED CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN 180600Z HIMAWARI VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS IS HEDGED BETWEEN A RJTD DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T1.5 (25 KNOTS) AND AN ADT ESTIMATE OF T2.3
(33 KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOW TD 12W IS EXPERIENCING
FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 TO 15 KNOTS). UPPER LEVEL WINDS
CONTINUE TO IMPROVE IN STRUCTURE WITH MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW.
POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALSO CONTINUES TO IMPROVE AS IT TAPS INTO THE
TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL LOCATED TO THE
NORTHEAST. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT, BETWEEN 29 AND 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. TD 12W
IS POSITIONED BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH AND
THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE SOUTH. THE NER IS CURRENTLY
THE DOMINANT FEATURE, CAUSING TD 12W TO TRACK SLOWLY EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. HOWEVER, THE INITIAL
POSITION HAS SHIFTED 52NM TO THE NORTHEAST SINCE THE PREVIOUS
WARNING DUE TO THE BROAD NATURE OF THE CIRCULATION AND LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THIS POSITIONAL ADJUSTMENT HAS
CAUSED THE FORECAST TRACK TO ALSO SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST.
B. A WEST TO EAST MOVING TROUGH, CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER ASIA,
WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE THE AFOREMENTIONED STR, ALLOWING THE NER TO
REMAIN THE DOMINANT STEERING FEATURE IN THE SHORT TERM. THIS WILL
ALLOW TD 12W TO TRACK TOWARD THE NORTHEAST TROUGH TAU 24. FAVORABLE
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW AS A RESULT
OF THE TUTT TO THE NORTHEAST WILL ALLOW TD 12W TO REACH AN INTENSITY
OF 40 KNOTS BY TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24, THE STR WILL BEGIN TO BUILD TO
THE NORTHEAST OF TD 12W. THIS REORIENTATION OF THE STR WILL ALLOW
FOR TD 12W TO TRACK NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD. FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TAU 72 AS TD 12W
TRACKS NORTHWESTWARD, REACHING AN INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS BY TAU 72.
THE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION ALONG WITH A WIDE SPREAD
IN DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE LEADS TO OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS
PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK REMAINS
HEDGED TO THE WEST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, FAVORING THE ECMWF
SOLUTION.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, TD 12 WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STR. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
WILL LEAD TO AN INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS BY TAU 96. TD 12W WILL MAKE
LANDFALL SOUTH OF SHANGHAI, CHINA SHORTLY AFTER TAU 96 WITH AN
INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT,
THEREFORE THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

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Very large system.

[NotoSans]

Upgraded to TS AMPIL by JMA. Ampil is the replacement name for Bopha which devastated Mindanao in December 2012.