WPAC: JONGDARI - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

TPPN14 PGTW 020033

A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W (JONGDARI)

B. 02/0000Z

C. 28.33N

D. 126.20E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .35 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 2.0. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
01/2155Z 28.35N 126.20E SSMS


VEERKAMP

[Twisted-core]

TS 1812 (Jongdari)
Issued at 00:50 UTC, 2 August 2018

<Analysis at 00 UTC, 2 August>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N28°25' (28.4°)
E126°10' (126.2°)
Direction and speed of movement Almost stationary
Central pressure 990 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 110 km (60 NM)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 2 August>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N29°55' (29.9°)
E124°10' (124.2°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 985 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 3 August>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N30°50' (30.8°)
E121°20' (121.3°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure 985 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 4 August>
Intensity -
TD
Center position of probability circle N33°40' (33.7°)
E116°35' (116.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 998 hPa
Radius of probability circle

[Twisted-core]

MTCSWA

PHILIP J. KLOTZBACH
Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado
(Manuscript received 2 May 2016, in final form 3 August 2016)
ABSTRACT
Symmetric and wavenumber-1 asymmetric characteristics of western North Pacific tropical cyclone (TC)
outer wind structures are compared between best tracks from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)
and the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) from 2004 to 2014 as well as the Multiplatform Tropical Cyclone
Surface Wind Analysis (MTCSWA) product from 2007 to 2014. Significant linear relationships of averaged
wind radii are obtained among datasets, in which both gale-force and storm-force wind radii are
generally estimated slightly smaller (much larger) by JTWC (JMA) than by MTCSWA. These correlations
are strongly related to TC intensity relationships discussed in earlier work. Moreover, JTWC (JMA) on
average represents a smaller (greater) derived shape parameter than MTCSWA does, implying that JTWC
(JMA) typically assesses a more compact (less compact) storm than MTCSWA. For the wavenumber-1
asymmetry, large differences among datasets are found regardless of the magnitude or the direction of the
longest radius. JTWC estimates more asymmetric storms than JMA, and it provides greater wavenumber-1
asymmetry magnitudes on average. Asymmetric storms are most frequently oriented toward the east,
northeast, and north in JTWC and MTCSWA, whereas they are most frequently oriented toward the
southeast, east, and northeast in JMA. The direction of the longest gale-force (storm force) wind radius in
JTWC is statistically rotated 188 (328) clockwise to that in JMA. Although the wind radii in JTWC are of
higher quality than those in JMA when using MTCSWA as a baseline, there remains a need to provide a
consistent and reliable wind radii estimating process among operational centers

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

WDPN35 PGTW 020900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W (JONGDARI)
WARNING NR 46//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 15W (JONGDARI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
178 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF KADENA AB, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS AN EXPOSED, WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION. BASED ON MSI, TD 15W
TRACKED ERRATICALLY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS AND APPEARS TO BE
TRACKING CYCLONICALLY. DUE TO THE QUASI-STATIONARY MOTION, THE
CURRENT TRACK MOTION WAS NOT REPRESENTATIVE OF THE PREVIOUS
WARNING'S FORECAST TRACK MOTION THUS THE SYSTEM CENTER WAS RELOCATED
ABOUT 100NM NORTHEAST. OVERALL, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE
INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE MSI. A 020506Z AMSR2 36GHZ IMAGE ALSO
SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION AND REVEALS SHALLOW CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LLCC. THE CURRENT INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED
AT 30 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.0 (30 KNOTS)
FROM ALL AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT WITH A BROAD UPPER LOW SITUATED OVER THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM WITH CONVERGENT FLOW, WHICH IS HINDERING
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. TD 15W IS TRACKING ERRATICALLY BUT APPEARS
TO BE TURNING SLOWLY WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TD 15W IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY DUE TO THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT
AND INTERACTION WITH LAND PRIOR TO TAU 24. TD 15W WILL MAKE LANDFALL
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF CHINA NEAR TAU 24 AND WILL DISSIPATE BY TAU
36. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

TPPN14 PGTW 020933

A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W (JONGDARI)

B. 02/0840Z

C. 29.73N

D. 126.12E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T1.5/2.0 STT: W0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .30 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 1.5. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
02/0506Z 29.40N 126.53E AMS2


LOWE

[euro6208]

TXPQ26 KNES 020911
TCSWNP

A. 15W (JONGDARI)

B. 02/0830Z

C. 29.8N

D. 126.3E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T1.5/2.0/W0.5/12HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR DATA. 0.35
CURVED BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 2.0. THE MET IS 1.5 AND THE PT IS
ALSO 1.5. THE FT IS BASED ON THE MET BECAUSE BANDING FEATURES ARE NOT
CLEAR CUT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...HOSLEY

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[euro6208]

WDPN35 PGTW 021500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W (JONGDARI)
WARNING NR 47//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 15W (JONGDARI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
237 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF KADENA AB, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WEAK LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH POORLY-ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION. A 021246Z
METOP-B 89GHZ IMAGE REVEALS SHALLOW CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN
ELONGATED LLCC, WHICH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 30 KNOTS BASED
ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 1.5 (25 KNOTS) TO
2.0 (30 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT WITH A BROAD UPPER LOW SITUATED OVER THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM WITH CONVERGENT FLOW, WHICH IS HINDERING
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. TD 15W IS TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
POSITIONED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TD 15W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY DUE TO THE
MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT AND INTERACTION WITH LAND AFTER TAU 12. TD 15W
WILL MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF CHINA NEAR TAU 12 AND
WILL DISSIPATE BY TAU 36. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN

[1900hurricane]

Pushing into China now.

[NotoSans]

Landfall pressure appears to be near 990 mb according to surface observations. IIRC this is the first time that two typhoons made landfall over Shanghai within the same year.

[euro6208]

WTPN35 PGTW 022100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W (JONGDARI) WARNING NR 048
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021800Z --- NEAR 31.1N 122.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 28 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 31.1N 122.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 32.2N 120.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 33.6N 117.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
022100Z POSITION NEAR 31.4N 121.9E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 15W (JONGDARI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 45 NM
EAST OF SHANGHAI, CHINA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 28 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED EIR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LLC
HAS BECOME RAGGED AND FULLY EXPOSED AS THE CENTRAL CONVECTION IS
SHEARED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THE INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE
BASED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON THE EIR LOOP, NEARBY SHIP AND SURFACE
WIND OBSERVATIONS, AND CONGRUENT DVORAK FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD. TD
15W IS POISED TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER THE EAST CHINA COAST JUST SOUTH
OF SHANGHAI IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AFTER LANDFALL, IT WILL RAPIDLY
ERODE DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 12. THIS IS THE
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR
HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z IS 10 FEET. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 17W (SEVENTEEN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN