WPAC: JONGDARI - Post-Tropical

[NotoSans]

It should be noted that Jongdari's track is rather common and Japan is likely to be affected by the right front quadrant this time (i.e. a larger threat). Jongdari is also moving very fast (~21kt) before landfall so winds are likely to be enhanced. Can't see any reason why this would not be a typhoon at landfall.

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

[Twisted-core]

@1900hurricane i think you are the person who may know the correct answer.
JTWC best tracks current is @ 15W JONGDARI 180727 1800 30.4N 144.3E WPAC 90 954
https://199.9.2.143/tcdat/sectors/atcf_sector_file

Is this estimate @ this point on this system weighted to method 2 using climatology rmw to estimate.

[euro6208]

Is a very small cyclone.

[euro6208]

CIMSS TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY CONSENSUS FOR JONGDARI (15W) 2018
CURRENT ESTIMATE
Date (mmddhhmm): 07272120
SATCON: MSLP = 938 hPa MSW = 96 knots
SATCON Member Consensus: 89.0 knots
Pressure -> Wind Using SATCON MSLP: 110 knots
Distance to Outer Closed Isobar Used is 180 nm
Eye Size Correction Used is 8.4 knots Source: IR

Member Estimates

ADT: 952 hPa 85 knots Scene: CDO Date: JUL272310
CIMSS AMSU: 949 hPa 89 knots Bias Corr: 0 (MW) Date: 07271127
ATMS: 946.8 hPa 100.1 knots Date: 07271606
SSMIS: 933.0 hPa 90.0 knots Date: 07272120
CIRA ATMS: hPa knots Date:

[galaxy401]

Maybe this typhoon will stay south of Japan. Turning west pretty sharply.

[Twisted-core]

Is a very small cyclone.

2018JUL28 023000 5.2 5.2 4.4 4.4 EYE

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... _table.txt



https://imgur.com/szOpkgN


https://imgur.com/0iJJwYA sheared N outta.


Reminds me of a Arafura Sea type system, small and hard to estimate intensity @ this point. Rule of thumb is they are usually underestmated
@ the core wind speeds by all agencies.


addit later

https://imgur.com/30tnJM1

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

WDPN35 PGTW 280300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 15W (JONGDARI) WARNING NR 25//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 15W (JONGDARI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 239 NM
SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 23
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS
MAINTAINED A RAGGED 5-NM CLOUD-FILLED PINHOLE EYE AS THE CENTRAL
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEGRADE, INUNDATED BY SUBSIDENCE FROM THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE IN THE MSI LOOP THAT LINED UP WELL WITH
THE MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN THE 272234Z AMSU PASS. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 85 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF A
WEAKENING TREND IN THE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND RJTD.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS TY 15W NOW HAS DIMINISHING EQUATORWARD
AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW AS IT MOVES FURTHER AWAY FROM THE NER TO THE
SOUTH AND CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST, RESPECTIVELY.
ADDITIONALLY, VWS REMAINS UNFAVORABLE AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. HOWEVER,
ALONG-TRACK SST AT 29-30 CELSIUS REMAINS FAVORABLE. THE CYCLONE IS
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. THE STR WILL CONTINUE TO STEER TY 15W NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE
NEXT 12 HOURS. NEAR TAU 18, THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE LANDFALL OVER
HONSHU, BETWEEN KYOTO AND TOKYO. AFTERWARD, ANOTHER STR TO THE
NORTHWEST WILL TAKE OVER STEERING AND DRIVE THE CYCLONE WESTWARD THEN
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN JAPAN AND INTO THE KOREA
STRAIT. INCREASING VWS AND LAND INTERACTION WILL PRIMARILY BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR ITS STEADY THEN RAPID DECAY. BY TAU 72, TY 15W WILL
DISSIPATE IN THE KOREA STRAIT JUST PASS TSUSHIMA ISLAND. THE
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE GRADUALLY SPREADS OUT FROM TAU 00 TO A SPAN OF 320
NM BY TAU 72. THIS, PLUS THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE STORM MOTION
ASSOCIATED WITH LAND INTERACTION LEND LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION
OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

Jongdari coming into radar view.

[euro6208]

TPPN14 PGTW 280323

A. TYPHOON 15W (JONGDARI)

B. 28/0250Z

C. 33.16N

D. 141.82E

E. THREE/HMWRI8

F. T4.5/5.0/W0.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 11A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY LG
YIELDS AN E# AND DT (NO EYE ADJUSTMENT) OF 5.0. MET/PT ARE 4.5.
DBO CONSTRAINTS.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
27/2234Z 31.87N 143.28E MMHS


ZOUFALY

[euro6208]

TXPQ26 KNES 280318
TCSWNP

A. 15W (JONGDARI)

B. 28/0230Z

C. 33.2N

D. 142.0E

E. ONE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T5.0/5.0/S0.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR
DATA. SYSTEM CHARACTERIZED BY AN OW EYE SURROUNDED BY LG AND EMBEDDED
IN LG FOR A DT=5.0. DT=5.0 MET=4.5 PT=5.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...FISHER

[euro6208]

Link: https://youtu.be/DgLk2HGMZ_g

[euro6208]

Raking the Izu Islands.

[euro6208]

Observations from the area.

http://www.jma.go.jp/en/amedas_h/map30.html?areaCode=206

[NotoSans]

Surface observations suggested that central pressure is still likely to be in the 965mb range.

[Twisted-core]

Surface observations suggested that central pressure is still likely to be in the 965mb range.

Roughly a CI 4.5 and 75-80 kts. On that hpa.

[euro6208]

WDPN35 PGTW 280900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 15W (JONGDARI) WARNING NR 26//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 15W (JONGDARI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 98 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 24
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPACT EYEWALL, APPROXIMATELY 60NM DIAMETER,
SURROUNDING A 15NM RAGGED EYE. RADAR IMAGERY FROM JAPAN SHOWS SPIRAL
BANDING PRIMARILY OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND A WELL-DEFINED EYE
WITH THE MOST INTENSE DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE WEST QUADRANT. BASED
ON RADAR IMAGERY, THE EYE IS ABOUT 30NM SOUTHEAST OF MIYAKEJIMA,
WHICH IS CURRENTLY REPORTING 10-MINUTE AVERAGE SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS AT 47 KNOTS WITH A MINIMUM SLP OF 975.8MB. BASED ON ANIMATED
RADAR IMAGERY, THE SYSTEM HAS TURNED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS, THEREFORE, THE CENTER SHOULD PASS JUST SOUTH OF
MIYAKEJIMA WITHIN THE NEXT TWO HOURS. THIS TRAJECTORY WILL KEEP THE
DESTRUCTIVE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COMPACT EYEWALL SOUTH OF
YOKOSUKA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 80 KNOTS BASED ON
DVORAK DATA-T ESTIMATES OF 4.5 (77 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND RJTD. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. TY 15W IS TRACKING QUICKLY NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A BROAD LOW AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. THE 50-KNOT AND 64-KNOT WIND
RADII HAVE BEEN SIGNIFICANTLY ADJUSTED BASED ON A DETAILED ANALYSIS
OF THE 280032Z ASCAT IMAGE AS WELL AS SURFACE OBSERVATIONS IN THE
AREA.
B. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO
WESTWARD TRAJECTORY AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE BROAD LOW WITH THE
STR MAINTAINING TO THE NORTH THROUGH TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24, TY 15W
WILL TURN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD AS IT STEERS ALONG THE
NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE BROAD LOW WITH THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF
THE STR POSITIONED TO THE NORTH. TY 15W WILL MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF HONSHU IN THE NEXT NINE HOURS AND IS FORECAST TO
TRACK ACROSS WESTERN HONSHU THROUGH TAU 24, WHICH WILL LEAD TO
SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING DUE TO FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OF LAND. INCREASING
VWS AFTER TAU 48 SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM WITH
DISSIPATION EXPECTED BY TAU 72. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THE
SYSTEM TO REGENERATE AFTER TAU 72 AND TRACK WESTWARD TOWARD THE
COAST OF CHINA. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF COAMPS-TC, THE NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

Compact...