WPAC: JONGDARI - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

Such a extremely complex scenario.

WDPN35 PGTW 300300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W (JONGDARI)
WARNING NR 33//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W (JONGDARI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 128 NM
SOUTH OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE BASED ON A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) IN ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI). THE MSI
LOOP AND ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY REVEALS FLARING DEEP CONVECTION,
MOSTLY ISOLATED TO THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 30 KNOTS IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY BELOW PGTW AND RJTD DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS) BASED ON THE LACK OF WINDS
OVER 25 KNOTS AT THE MANY OBSERVATION STATIONS IN JAPAN AND THE LACK
OF RECENT HISTORICAL DVORAK INTENSITY TRENDS AS THE SYSTEM RECENTLY
RE-EMERGED OVER WATER. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KNOT) AND
GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW BEING OFFSET BY SOME UPPER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE DUE TO A BROAD, VERTICALLY STACKED LOW LOCATED TO THE
EAST. TD 15W IS TRACKING CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE LOW.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. THERE ARE THREE SIGNIFICANT CIRCULATIONS IMPACTING THE TRACK
AND INTENSITY OF TD 15W, MAKING FOR AN EXTREMELY COMPLEX
ENVIRONMENT. IN THE SHORT TERM (THROUGH TAU 24), STEERING FOR TD 15W
IS PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY THE LOW PRESSURE MENTIONED ABOVE. FOR THIS
PERIOD, THE TRACK IS QUASI-STATIONARY TO CYCLONIC AND TD 15W WILL
GRADUALLY INTENSIFY. ADDITIONALLY, A SECONDARY 850MB VORTICITY
MAXIMUM (INVEST 91W) WILL ROTATE CYCLONICALLY ABOUT THE LOW AND
MERGE WITH 15W BY TAU 36. AFTER TAU 36, A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
OVER CHINA WILL BECOME THE PREDOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM AND THE
TRACK WILL SHIFT TO BE GENERALLY WESTWARD. THE NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE WESTWARD TRACK OF TD 15W FOR
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THE PEAK INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS AT TAU
72 IS HEDGED ABOVE THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS BUT IS BELOW THE
PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED PEAK INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, THE STR WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE STEERING
AND TD 15W WILL FOLLOW A WESTWARD TRACK UNTIL MAKING LANDFALL NEAR
SHANGHAI JUST PRIOR TO TAU 96. AFTER MAKING LANDFALL, THE CYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE INLAND,
WEAKENING TO AN INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS BY TAU 120. ALTHOUGH NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST, THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN BOTH SPEED AND DIRECTION.
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS LOW THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
BASED ON THE COMPLEXITY OF THE ENVIRONMENT AND UNCERTAINTY IN THE
MODEL GUIDANCE.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

Exposed LLC and convection weakening. Looking worser. ASCAT showing winds of around 25 to 30 knots.

[euro6208]

WDPN35 PGTW 300900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W (JONGDARI)
WARNING NR 34//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 15W (JONGDARI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
169 NM SOUTH OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A FULLY-EXPOSED, ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH FLARING
DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTHEAST. CONSEQUENTLY, THERE IS
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION AND RECENT TRACK MOTION. THE
SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD, DEEP LOW AND CONTINUES TO
STRUGGLE DUE TO MARGINAL ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, PRIMARILY UPPER-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE, WHICH IS HINDERING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 30 KNOTS BASED ON RECENT ASCAT
DATA, WHICH SHOWED 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS, AS WELL AS DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T2.0 (30 KNOTS) FROM KNES AND PGTW. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS ARE LIMITED WITH THE EXCEPTION OF YAKUSHIMA,
APPROXIMATELY 60NM EAST, WHICH REPORTED SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT ONLY
5-10 KNOTS WITH MINIMUM SLP NEAR 998MB. TD 15W IS TRACKING SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD TO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD WITHIN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
LOW-LEVEL REFLECTION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEP LOW.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TD 15W IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY AND ERRATICALLY THROUGH TAU
24 AS IT REMAINS WITHIN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT WITH NO
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH. THE SYSTEM, HOWEVER, IS LIKELY
TO LOOP CYCLONICALLY DUE TO THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE BROAD LOW.
AFTER TAU 24, THE STR IS FORECAST TO BUILD TO THE NORTH, WHICH WILL
GRADUALLY STEER THE SYSTEM WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AS IT
TRACKS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY THROUGH TAU 24 BUT SHOULD INTENSIFY AT
A GREATER RATE AFTER TAU 36 AS THE UPPER LOW / CONVERGENT FLOW
WEAKENS AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE. A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS IS EXPECTED BY TAU 72. DESPITE THE WEAK
STEERING ENVIRONMENT IN THE SHORT-TERM, DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT, HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOOP PHASE.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TD 15W IS FORECAST TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS
IT TRACKS ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED STR
ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL
NEAR TAU 84 AND WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS
PHASE OF THE FORECAST TRACK WITH A 105NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU
96.//
NNNN

[Twisted-core]

https://imgur.com/Ukhyp2H


https://imgur.com/wbLzbHW


Looking sheared off.




https://imgur.com/E7wJUVj



https://imgur.com/u7ytzyD

2018-07-30 0715Z

WTPQ30 RJTD 300600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.26 FOR TS 1812 JONGDARI (1812)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS JONGDARI IS LOCATED AT 30.2N, 129.9E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND ANIMATED
MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS AND
WEAK VWS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89
GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD
CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW
UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD DUE TO
WEAK STEERING FLOW UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE WESTWARD
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY
OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON
GSM PREDICTIONS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT24
BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL
MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THE JMA INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.

[wxman57]

Quite a stretch for JMA still calling this a TS. ScatSat pass directly over it around 00Z didn't indicate anything close to TS winds. No convection anywhere near the exposed low-level swirl. Technically, I think it's a remnant low now. Upper-low to its northeast is still producing quite a bit of shear. I think the GFS is way too strong with it, given that the shear may not relax much.

[NotoSans]

Latest GFS run has significantly backed off in terms of intensity forecast.

[wxman57]

Latest GFS run has significantly backed off in terms of intensity forecast.

It looks much more realistic. Very little strengthening prior to moving ashore. It should still be fighting shear.

[NotoSans]

Latest euro run trends a bit stronger again. Jongdari most likely will make landfall as a high-end tropical storm / low-end severe tropical storm, similar to Ampil earlier this month.

[euro6208]

Environment becoming more favorable.

WDPN35 PGTW 302100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W (JONGDARI)
WARNING NR 36//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W (JONGDARI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 211
NM NORTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING, DEEP CONVECTION TO THE EAST. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
ANIMATED EIR AND A 301751Z GMI 89 GHZ IMAGE SHOWING BANDING
FEATURES WRAPPING INTO A FAIRLY ELONGATED LLCC. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 30 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T1.5 TO T2.5 (25-35 KNOTS) FROM PGTW, KNES, AND
RJTD. THE BROAD, DEEP LOW THAT HAS INHIBITED CONVECTION APPEARS
TO BE WEAKENING, THEREBY REDUCING THE UPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AND ALLOWING THE ENVIRONMENT TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR
INTENSIFICATION. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) REMAINS MODERATE AT
ABOUT 15 KNOTS. TD 15W IS TRACKING EASTWARD AS IT HAS MOVED INTO
THE WESTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF THE DEEP LOW.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TD 15W IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY LOOP AROUND THE CENTER OF THE
DEEP LOW BEFORE A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) OVER CHINA BUILDS INTO
THE AREA AROUND TAU 24. AT THAT TIME, TD 15W WILL BEGIN TO TRACK
WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE STR. AS THE DEEP LOW CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND DRIFT
SOUTHWESTWARD, THE CYCLONE IS FORECASTED TO INTENSIFY, REACHING
A PEAK INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE TD 15W IS IN THE LOOP
PHASE.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TD 15W IS FORECAST TO TURN WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO THE NORTH. LANDFALL IN CHINA IS EXPECTED
NEAR TAU 72, AT WHICH POINT THE CYCLONE WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY
UNTIL DISSIPATING BY TAU 120. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT REGARDING THE TRACK DIRECTION BUT THE ALONG-TRACK
SPEED IS FAIRLY UNCERTAIN, THEREFORE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST
TRACK IS LOW.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

HWRF also trending stronger again.

[Twisted-core]

https://imgur.com/MrcILUq



https://imgur.com/FYrMrmt


Dryair + shear appears to have fully opened this mess up. Lots to do for this if models are to verify.

[euro6208]

TPPN14 PGTW 302107

A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W (JONGDARI)

B. 30/2040Z

C. 28.73N

D. 131.24E

E. THREE/HMWRI8

F. T2.0/2.0/D0.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 17A/PBO XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. .35 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDS 2.0 DT. MET/PT 2.0. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


DAVIS

[euro6208]

TXPQ26 KNES 302110
TCSWNP

A. 15W (JONGDARI)

B. 30/2030Z

C. 28.9N

D. 131.5E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR
DATA. CIRCULARLY DEFINED CLOUD LINES NEAR A SMALL OVERCAST RESULT IN
DT=2.0. MET=1.5 AND PT=2.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...BOLL

[Twisted-core]

open
https://imgur.com/r8wY6Pt

[euro6208]

JTWC at 2.5.

TPPN14 PGTW 310022

A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W (JONGDARI)

B. 31/0000Z

C. 29.28N

D. 131.83E

E. THREE/HMWRI8

F. T2.5/2.5/D0.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 19A/PBO XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. .40 WRAP ON LOG10 PSIRAL
YIELDS 2.5 DT. MET 2.0. PT 2.5. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


DAVIS

[euro6208]

Once again upgrades to a TS.

WDPN35 PGTW 310300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W (JONGDARI)
WARNING NR 37//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 15W (JONGDARI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 258 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING, DEEP CONVECTION TO THE
NORTHEAST AND INCREASING CONVECTION IN THE RAIN BANDS. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
ANIMATED MSI IMAGERY AND A 302222Z SSMIS 89 GHZ IMAGE SHOWING
BANDING FEATURES WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. THE CURRENT INTENSITY
IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND RJTD. THE ENVIRONMENT
IS FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION WITH SOME POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND
ABOUT 10 KNOTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE OF 28-29C SUPPORTS INTENSIFICATION. TD 15W
IS TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD AS IT MOVES AROUND THE BROAD, DEEP LOW
TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LLCC.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TD 15W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE SLOWLY LOOPING AROUND THE
CENTER OF THE DEEP LOW BEFORE A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) OVER
CHINA BEGINS TO IMPACT THE TRACK AROUND TAU 12. BETWEEN TAU 12
AND TAU 48, THE STEERING WILL BE HEAVILY INFLUENCED BY BOTH THE
DEEP LOW AND THE STR, CAUSING THE CYCLONE TO TRACK WESTWARD TO
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD. AFTER TAU 48, THE STR WILL DOMINATE AND THE
CYCLONE WILL TRACK WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THE PEAK
INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS AT TAU 72 IS HEDGED BETWEEN THE CONSENSUS
AND THE HWRF MODEL WHICH DEPICTS A PEAK INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS AT
TAU 72 IN THE 301800Z RUN. CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK
IS LOW FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST BECAUSE SPREAD IN THE
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS OVER 130 NM AT TAU 48 DUE TO COMPETING
INFLUENCES BETWEEN THE DEEP LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST AND THE STR TO
THE NORTH.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TD 15W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO THE NORTH. LANDFALL IN CHINA IS EXPECTED
NEAR TAU 72, AT WHICH POINT THE CYCLONE WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY
UNTIL DISSIPATING BY TAU 120. CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK
IS HIGH FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST BECAUSE DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT WITH A SPREAD OF LESS THAN 100
NM AT TAU 96.//
NNNN

[1900hurricane]

It's really tangled with the upper low right now. If it can overwhelm it though, that would help organization a ton.

[Alyono]

this is also probably subtropical now

[Twisted-core]

ecovered at: 2018-07-31 0345Z

WTPQ20 RJTD 310300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1812 JONGDARI (1812)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 310300UTC 30.1N 131.9E FAIR
MOVE NNE 11KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 120NM EAST 60NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 010300UTC 30.3N 127.9E 50NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 020000UTC 28.8N 125.8E 110NM 70%
MOVE SW 07KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
69HF 030000UTC 30.5N 122.7E 160NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT =

recovered at: 2018-07-31 0145Z

WTPQ30 RJTD 310000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.29 FOR TS 1812 JONGDARI (1812)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS JONGDARI IS LOCATED AT 29.6N, 131.6E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN A
NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
SSTS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER
THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS ARE SCATTERED AROUND THE CSC. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW UNTIL
FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING
FLOW UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DUE
TO WEAK STEERING FLOW UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
WESTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW UNTIL FT120. THE JMA TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THE JMA INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.

[Twisted-core]

https://imgur.com/LvwkWhV

totally agree this is sh*t