WPAC: WUKONG - Post-Tropical

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WDPN34 PGTW 240900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 14W (WUKONG) WARNING NR
11//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 14W (WUKONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 437 NM
NORTHEAST OF MINAMI TORI SHIMA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS WEAK CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO
A FULLY EXPOSED, WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC),
WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON T3.0 (45 KNOTS)
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
WUKONG HAS MAINTAINED ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW, ENHANCED BY AN UPPER
LOW TO THE NORTHWEST AND THE TUTT, AND IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW
(10-15 KNOTS) WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER, TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A RIBBON OF DRY AIR
INTRUDING INTO THE CENTER IS HINDERING SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION.
TS 14W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN EXTENT OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 14W IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER
THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST AS THE STEERING STR BUILDS TO THE EAST.
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN GENERALLY FAVORABLE THROUGH TAU 24.
ADDITIONALLY, VWS AND OUTFLOW ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE WITH
GUIDANCE INDICATING SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION TO 50 KNOTS BY TAU 12.
HOWEVER, TS 14W IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN BY TAU 36 AS IT
TRACKS OVER VERY COOL SST (23C) AND BEGINS TO MERGE WITH A BROAD
500MB LOW. BY TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL ENCOUNTER COLD SST NEAR 20C
AND WILL COMPLETE A WEAK EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT REMAINS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BROAD 500MB LOW. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS
IN STRONG AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST.//
NNNN

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WDPN34 PGTW 242100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 14W (WUKONG) WARNING NR
13//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 14W (WUKONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 502 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MINAMI TORI SHIMA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED EIR
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SLIGHTLY IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A DEFINED LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN ALMOST CLOSED CIRCULATION FEATURE IN
THE 241622Z 27 GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50
KNOTS HEDGED HIGHER THAN THE DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T3.0 FROM PGTW TO
REFLECT THE IMPROVED STATE OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES WUKONG HAS MAINTAINED ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW, ENHANCED BY
AN UPPER LOW TO THE NORTHWEST AND THE TUTT, AND IS LOCATED IN AN AREA
OF LOW (10-15 KNOT) WESTERLY VWS. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN EXTENT OF A DEEP-LAYERED STR TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS WUKONG IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AS THE STEERING STR BUILDS. VWS AND OUTFLOW
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE IN THE NEAR TERM ALLOWING FOR A
SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. AFTERWARD, SSTS
WILL BEGIN TO COOL TO BELOW 26 CELSIUS AND CONTINUE TO FALL. THIS,
ALONG WITH INCREASING VWS, WILL RESULT IN GRADUAL DECAY. BY TAU 36,
TS 14W WILL UNDERGO A WEAK EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AND BY
TAU 48 WILL COMPLETE ETT. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN STRONG
AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN

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TPPN11 PGTW 250025

A. TROPICAL STORM 14W (WUKONG)

B. 24/2350Z

C. 32.65N

D. 158.12E

E. THREE/HMWRI8

F. T3.5/3.5/D0.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 11A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY DG
YIELDS AN E# AND DT (NO EYE ADJUSTMENT) OF 4.5. MET AND PT
YIELD A 4.0. DBO CONSTRAINTS OF FT <4.0 LIMIT CHANGE OF 0.5
OVER 6 HRS.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


RICHARDSON

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TXPQ25 KNES 242132
TCSWNP

A. 14W (WUKONG)

B. 24/2030Z

C. 31.9N

D. 158.0E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T3.5/3.5/D0.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR
DATA. CONVECTION WRAPS .8 ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 3.5. MET AND
PT AGREE. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL

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WDPN34 PGTW 250300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 14W (WUKONG) WARNING NR
14//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 14W (WUKONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 552 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MINAMI TORI SHIMA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT
10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWED A FORMATIVE EYE AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY AS
EVIDENCED BY IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A
DEFINED LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
BASED ON A CIRCULATION FEATURE IN THE 242313Z AMSUB MICROWAVE PASS
WHICH STACKED DOWN ALMOST VERTICALLY FROM THE FORMATIVE EYE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T3.5
FROM PGTW AND CONSISTENT WITH A FORMATIVE EYE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES TS 14W IS IN AN AREA OF LOW (10-15 KNOT) WESTERLY VWS AND
CONTINUES TO HAVE ROBUST EASTWARD OUTFLOW INTO A TUTT CELL TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN EXTENT OF
A DEEP-LAYERED STR TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS WUKONG IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AS THE STEERING STR BUILDS. VWS AND OUTFLOW
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE IN THE NEAR TERM ALLOWING FOR A
SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. AFTERWARD, SSTS
WILL BEGIN TO DROP TO WELL BELOW 26 CELSIUS. THIS PLUS INCREASING VWS
WILL RESULT IN GRADUAL DECAY. BY TAU 36, TS 14W WILL ALSO UNDERGO A
WEAK EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AND BY TAU 48 WILL COMPLETE ETT.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN STRONG AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN

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TXPQ25 KNES 250310
TCSWNP

A. 14W (WUKONG)

B. 25/0230Z

C. 33.0N

D. 158.1E

E. ONE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T4.0/4.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR
DATA. RAGGED AND CLOUD-FILLED OW EYE SURROUNDED BY LG RING AND EMBEDDED
IN MG YIELDS E=4.0. NO EYE ADJUSTMENT WARRANTED. DT=4.0 MET=3.5 PT=4.0. FT
IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...VELASCO

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Should be a typhoon already with that eye.

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CURRENT ESTIMATE
Date (mmddhhmm): 07250238
SATCON: MSLP = 966 hPa MSW = 78 knots
SATCON Member Consensus: 79.0 knots
Pressure -> Wind Using SATCON MSLP: 76 knots
Distance to Outer Closed Isobar Used is 170 nm
Eye Size Correction Used is 0 knots Source: NA

Member Estimates

ADT: 969 hPa 72 knots Scene: CDO Date: JUL250340
CIMSS AMSU: 980 hPa 45 knots Bias Corr: 0 (MW) Date: 07242125
ATMS: 961.1 hPa 85.7 knots Date: 07250238
SSMIS: 961.1 hPa 85.7 knots Date: 07250238
CIRA ATMS: 981 hPa 65 knots Date: 07241521

[Twisted-core]

No comment.....


https://imgur.com/uDeXBZ9



https://imgur.com/2fgVBwm

[Twisted-core]

WTPQ22 RJTD 250300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1811 WUKONG (1811)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 250300UTC 33.1N 157.9E GOOD
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 270NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 260300UTC 39.4N 153.9E 60NM 70%
MOVE NNW 19KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 270000UTC 44.5N 151.9E 110NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

WTPQ32 RJTD 250000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.11 FOR STS 1811 WUKONG (1811)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS WUKONG IS LOCATED AT 32.5N, 158.1E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS
CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION
ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE FORMATION OF A
BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD
CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS
AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON
GSM PREDICTIONS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOW TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 IN A STATE
OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT48. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED
ON GSM PREDICTIONS.

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JTWC now at 4.0.

TPPN11 PGTW 250638

A. TROPICAL STORM 14W (WUKONG)

B. 25/0600Z

C. 33.90N

D. 157.72E

E. THREE/HMWRI8

F. T4.0/4.0/D1.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

Upgrade imminent.

H. REMARKS: 09A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY OW
YIELDS AN E# AND DT (NO EYE ADJUSTMENT) OF 4.0. MET AND PT
AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


LOWE

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14W WUKONG 180725 0600 33.9N 157.8E WPAC 65 974

4th typhoon of the season is here.

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WDPN34 PGTW 250900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 14W (WUKONG) WARNING NR
15//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 14W (WUKONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 615 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF MINAMI TORI SHIMA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION WITH A 30NM RAGGED EYE. A
250425Z SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE REVEALS A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, WHICH
SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 65 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T4.0 FROM BOTH KNES AND PGTW, AND A 25/0434Z SATCON
ESTIMATE OF 62 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW,
ENHANCED BY AN UPPER LOW POSITIONED TO THE NORTHWEST. SST IS
CURRENTLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE AT 26-27C. TY 14W IS TRACKING ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ENTRENCHED TO THE
EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 14W IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE STR. TY 14W IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY BY TAU 12 AS IT
TRACKS OVER COOLER SST (24C) AND BEGINS TO MERGE WITH A BROAD
500MB LOW. AFTER TAU 12, TY 14W IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS IT
TRACKS OVER COLD SST DECREASING QUICKLY FROM 20C NEAR TAU 24 TO 10C
NEAR TAU 48. TY 14W IS FORECAST TO TRANSITION INTO AN EXTRA-TROPICAL
CYCLONE BETWEEN TAU 36 AND TAU 48. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS
IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN

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Amazing.

[Twisted-core]

I'm thinking you are joking. Honestly its ugly. The bar is set low with this .

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WDPN34 PGTW 251500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 14W (WUKONG) WARNING NR
16//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 14W (WUKONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 688 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MINAMI TORI SHIMA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A SLIGHT WEAKENING TREND WITH
DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING FRAGMENTING. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM HAS
MAINTAINED A RAGGED 25NM EYE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION
WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 60 KNOTS
BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 3.5/4.0 FROM KNES AND 4.0/4.0
FROM PGTW AS WELL AS A 25/1030Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 62 KNOTS. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, ENHANCED BY AN UPPER LOW
POSITIONED TO THE NORTHWEST. SST IS CURRENTLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
AT 26C. TS 14W IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ENTRENCHED TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 14W IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE STR. TS 14W IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY BY TAU 12 AS IT
TRACKS OVER COOLER SST (24-20C) AND BEGINS TO MERGE WITH A BROAD
500MB LOW. AFTER TAU 12, TS 14W IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS IT
TRACKS OVER COLD SST DECREASING QUICKLY FROM 16C NEAR TAU 24 TO 12C
NEAR TAU 36. TS 14W IS FORECAST TO TRANSITION INTO AN EXTRA-TROPICAL
CYCLONE BY TAU 36. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST.//
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