EPAC: GILMA - Post-Tropical

[Kingarabian]

PTC8 on TropicalTidbits?

[Yellow Evan]

We have the TD:

TRANSITIONED, epC12018 to ep082018,

Maybe not

EP, 91, 2018072618, , BEST, 0, 132N, 1227W, 25, 1010, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 60, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 016, TRANSITIONED, epC12018 to ep082018, DISSIPATED, ep082018 to ep912018,

[NDG]

[img]https://i.imgur.com/tQArPip.jpg

It's basically there but also seems to be becoming less organized in recent frames.

It's definitely very close, but I do not see any westerly winds in that pass.

A very weird, very close to a closed circulation, reminds me a weak system traveling west across the eastern Caribbean that because of its momentum officially it does not have a westerly wind south of the COC.

[Kingarabian]

NHC keeping things suspenseful

[Kingarabian]

SSD has 08E

[NDG]

I think ASCAT is correct, looking at the HR vis satellite I think it got decapitated, the not completely closed circulation is now near 124W while the mid level circulation got left behind near 123W.
I can see southerly winds to the SW of the broad circulation.

[Yellow Evan]

899
WTPZ23 KNHC 262044
TCMEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082018
2100 UTC THU JUL 26 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 123.4W AT 26/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 123.4W AT 26/2100Z
AT 26/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 122.7W

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 13.7N 125.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 14.0N 128.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 14.5N 130.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 70SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 15.0N 132.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 16.5N 135.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 30SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 17.0N 139.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z 17.0N 144.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.2N 123.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[cycloneye]

Tropical Depression Eight-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082018
200 PM PDT Thu Jul 26 2018

A recent ASCAT pass indicated that a very small 30-kt circulation
has developed in association with the disturbance that the NHC has
been tracking southwest of Baja California Sur during the past
several days. On this basis, advisories are initiated on Tropical
Depression Eight. However, the satellite presentation is not very
well organized at this time, and Dvorak T-numbers are still low.
Given the current environment of low shear and warm ocean, gradual
strengthening is anticipated. However, global models indicate that
the shear will markedly increase beyond 48 hours, and this wind
pattern should result in weakening. The NHC forecast is a blend of
HCCA and the simple intensity consensus.

The depression is moving toward the west or west-northwest at 14 kt
around the periphery of the strong subtropical ridge. Since the
ridge is forecast to persist, no significant change in the steering
flow is anticipated. The cyclone should then continue on the same
track for the next several days, although by the end of the
forecast period, the cyclone is forecast to become a westward
moving remnant low. The NHC forecast is very close to the
multi-model consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/2100Z 13.2N 123.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 27/0600Z 13.7N 125.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 27/1800Z 14.0N 128.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 28/0600Z 14.5N 130.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 28/1800Z 15.0N 132.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 29/1800Z 16.5N 135.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 30/1800Z 17.0N 139.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 31/1800Z 17.0N 144.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Avila

[1900hurricane]

It's basically there but also seems to be becoming less organized in recent frames.

It's definitely very close, but I do not see any westerly winds in that pass.

Wind barbs immediately south of the center look contaminated. Notice how they all have a uniform direction there, even extending onto the eastern half of the circulation, where winds would be southerly in a circulation open to the south. I would not use that as evidence against a closed circulation personally.

[cycloneye]

Still a TD.

EP, 08, 2018072700, , BEST, 0, 137N, 1246W, 30, 1008, TD

[Kingarabian]

SAB up to 2.0 and ADT raw numbers at 3.0.

[Kingarabian]

[Yellow Evan]

Nothing like a small EPAC TC right at dusk on a mid-summer evening.

[Kingarabian]

Moderately high rain rate over the COC. Indicates a strengthening system:

[cycloneye]

Tropical Depression Eight-E Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082018
800 PM PDT Thu Jul 26 2018

The cloud pattern of the depression features a small area of central
convection with cloud tops of -70 to -80C and a larger convective
band to the west and northwest of the low-level center. The initial
intensity remains 30 kt based on the previous ASCAT data and the
latest Dvorak classification from SAB. The cyclone has an
opportunity to strengthen during the next 36 hours or so while it
moves through an environment of light-to-moderate westerly shear and
SSTs of 27-28C. After that time the shear is forecast to increase
and reach 30-40 kt by late in the forecast period. The combination
of the shear and cooling SSTs should result in weakening. The global
models show the low and mid-level circulations decoupling by 96
hours, which should result in the cyclone becoming a remnant low.
The new NHC intensity forecast is close to the latest IVCN intensity
consensus.

The initial motion estimate is 285/14 based on the latest
geostationary and microwave satellite fixes. The track forecast
remains unchanged, as the cyclone will be steered westward to
west-northwestward along the southwestern flank of a large mid-level
ridge centered over the southwestern United States. After the
cyclone becomes a shallow remnant low late in the period, a westward
motion is expected. The latest NHC track forecast is close to the
previous one and is a bit south of the multi-model consensus aids
and near a blend of the GFS and ECMWF models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0300Z 13.8N 125.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 27/1200Z 14.1N 127.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 28/0000Z 14.5N 129.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 28/1200Z 15.0N 131.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 29/0000Z 15.7N 133.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 30/0000Z 17.0N 137.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 31/0000Z 17.5N 141.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 01/0000Z 17.5N 145.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brennan

[Yellow Evan]

This may have opened up shortly after the old ASCAT at 18z.

[Yellow Evan]

27/0600 UTC 14.5N 126.0W T2.0/2.0 08E -- East Pacific

[Yellow Evan]

Why is the NHC ignoring ASCAT?

EP, 08, 2018072706, , BEST, 0, 141N, 1260W, 30, 1008, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 130, 25, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, EIGHT, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 016,

[Kingarabian]

I'm through with these TD's/Disturbances moving into the CPAC and shutting down our trade winds. These non stop disturbances have made the humidity here in Hawaii absolutely unbearable.

[Yellow Evan]

TS chances with this are decreasing as well I think.

* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* EIGHT EP082018 07/27/18 06 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 35 36 34 33 30 28 22 16 DIS DIS
V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 35 36 34 33 30 28 22 16 DIS DIS
V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 31 30 29 26 22 19 16 DIS DIS DIS
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 13 17 17 11 15 22 19 23 28 35 35 34 38
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 3 0 3 5 4 10 7 7 0 4 6 2
SHEAR DIR 301 313 309 293 261 274 262 270 293 291 261 272 289
SST (C) 27.2 27.4 27.6 27.4 27.2 27.4 26.2 26.9 26.1 25.6 25.9 26.1 26.0
POT. INT. (KT) 137 139 140 138 136 137 125 133 124 119 122 125 124
200 MB T (C) -53.7 -54.0 -54.0 -53.6 -53.9 -54.4 -54.6 -55.2 -55.4 -55.7 -55.8 -56.3 -56.0
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.4 -0.4 -0.8 -0.4
TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 8 9
700-500 MB RH 66 65 65 64 63 61 58 55 52 50 53 52 47
MODEL VTX (KT) 10 12 13 14 14 14 13 12 11 9 8 8 7
850 MB ENV VOR -14 -10 -11 -18 -13 -18 -10 -7 -1 -12 -2 -7 -11
200 MB DIV 34 26 43 49 61 23 0 1 8 4 -23 -12 -15
700-850 TADV -20 -18 -13 -12 -13 -11 -6 -7 -3 -3 1 1 1
LAND (KM) 1864 1952 2035 2095 2159 2250 2238 2016 1786 1571 1373 1144 876
LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.3 14.5 14.7 14.9 15.5 16.3 16.9 17.4 17.7 17.7 17.7 17.7
LONG(DEG W) 126.0 127.3 128.5 129.5 130.6 132.3 133.9 135.9 138.0 140.0 141.9 144.1 146.7
STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 11 10 10 8 9 10 10 10 10 11 12
HEAT CONTENT 28 20 8 5 4 4 3 13 1 0 0 6 2

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 4
T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 690 (MEAN=584)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.3 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 2.1

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 10. 15. 20. 22. 24. 25. 25.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -3. -8. -15. -20. -23. -25.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 3.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 0. -2. -3. -4. -5.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 6. 4. 3. 0. -2. -8. -14. -18. -19.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.1 126.0

** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082018 EIGHT 07/27/18 06 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.63 2.6
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 1.7
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.4 19.6 to 1.4 0.28 1.1
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.11 0.3
D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.40 1.4
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.49 1.4
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.22 0.6
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 145.2 721.6 to -82.5 0.72 -1.7
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.3
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.51 0.2

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 6.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 8.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 2.3% 15.4% 7.9% 7.7% 4.4% 8.9% 9.3% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.4% 1.7% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 0.9% 5.7% 2.9% 2.7% 1.5% 3.0% 3.1% 0.1%
DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082018 EIGHT 07/27/18 06 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX