EPAC: NINE-E - Post-Tropical

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Re: EPAC: NINE-E - Tropical Depression

#21 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 26, 2018 7:59 pm

Still a TD.

EP, 09, 2018072700, , BEST, 0, 108N, 1363W, 30, 1008, TD
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Re: EPAC: NINE-E - Tropical Depression

#22 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 26, 2018 9:33 pm

Tropical Depression Nine-E Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092018
800 PM PDT Thu Jul 26 2018

It has been difficult to identify the center of the depression on
visible imagery since this afternoon, and microwave imagery from the
SSMI and GMI instruments between 2300 and 0000 UTC suggest that the
low-level circulation of the depression has not become any better
organized. The initial intensity has been held at 30 kt, but Dvorak
intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB suggest that this could be
generous. Based on an analysis from UW-CIMSS, 20-25 kt of
northwesterly shear is currently affecting the depression, and SHIPS
diagnostics from the GFS and ECMWF indicate that the shear will
increase over the next 24 hours. None of the intensity guidance
brings the cyclone above minimal tropical storm strength, and the
dynamical models all indicate that it will degenerate into a trough
of low pressure early next week. The intensity forecast therefore
keeps the cyclone as a depression through 96 h, and now shows
dissipation by day 5. Given the high shear and disorganized nature
of the depression, it is very possible that dissipation will occur
sooner than currently forecast.

Due to the uncertainty associated with the initial position of the
depression, the initial motion is fairly uncertain but is estimated
to be 265/13 kt. Little change has been made to the NHC forecast,
and the depression is still forecast to continue moving generally
westward for the next several days, steered by a low- to mid-level
ridge to the north. The models are in good agreement on the track of
the depression through dissipation, and the NHC forecast is near the
center of the guidance envelope.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0300Z 10.8N 136.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 27/1200Z 10.7N 138.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 28/0000Z 10.6N 140.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 28/1200Z 10.6N 142.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 29/0000Z 10.7N 145.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 30/0000Z 11.6N 149.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 31/0000Z 12.5N 155.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
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Re: EPAC: NINE-E - Tropical Depression

#23 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Jul 27, 2018 1:06 am

0z ECMWF kills this off quickly.
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Re: EPAC: NINE-E - Tropical Depression

#24 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Jul 27, 2018 1:51 am

27/0600 UTC 10.5N 137.3W T1.5/1.5 09E -- East Pacific
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Re: EPAC: NINE-E - Tropical Depression

#25 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Jul 27, 2018 1:52 am

EP, 09, 2018072706, , BEST, 0, 107N, 1372W, 30, 1008, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 150, 50, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, NINE, S,
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Re: EPAC: NINE-E - Tropical Depression

#26 Postby wxman57 » Fri Jul 27, 2018 8:21 am

Looks like a TD in name only this morning. I'm thinking that it just might weaken to a remnant low before 96 hrs, like now. Good chance NHC kills it this afternoon after seeing it in visible imagery.

Image
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Re: EPAC: NINE-E - Tropical Depression

#27 Postby syryquil » Fri Jul 27, 2018 9:53 am

It's already dead. 3 whole advisories. I think that ties a record with TD 9 in 2000?
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Re: EPAC: NINE-E - Tropical Depression

#28 Postby hurricanes1234 » Fri Jul 27, 2018 9:55 am

This was doomed to be ripped to shreds ever since it "formed" yesterday. Pathetic.
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Re: EPAC: NINE-E - Post-Tropical

#29 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Jul 27, 2018 12:36 pm

ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Depression Nine-E Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092018
200 AM PDT Fri Jul 27 2018

The depression is not well organized at this time, with the center
likely located between two unimpressive areas of convection.
Microwave data also suggest that the circulation is elongated
northeast-to-southwest, which is another sign that the cyclone is
struggling. Dvorak classifications haven't changed, so the initial
wind speed remains 30 kt. Little change in strength is forecast
due to moderate northwesterly shear, with weakening likely in a
couple of days due to persistent moderate or strong shear. The new
intensity forecast is lower than the previous prediction beyond 36
hours, and the cyclone is now forecast to become post tropical by 96
hours. Given the shear and disorganized nature of the depression, it
remains possible that this forecast is conservative, and that
dissipation will occur sooner than currently forecast.

Satellite and microwave data indicate the depression has slowed
down, now moving westward at about 10 kt. This general track is
forecast for the next several days, with the system gaining some
latitude in the Central Pacific basin due to the orientation of
the subtropical ridge. The UKMET and ECMWF models are farther
north than the rest of the guidance, possibly due to slight
binary interaction with Tropical Storm Gilma. Overall, the new
forecast is not too different than the previous one, although
it has been adjusted to the northeast at long range to account for
the models mentioned above.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0900Z 10.7N 137.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 27/1800Z 10.6N 139.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 28/0600Z 10.5N 141.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 28/1800Z 10.7N 143.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 29/0600Z 11.0N 145.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
72H 30/0600Z 11.9N 150.4W 25 KT 30 MPH
96H 31/0600Z 13.0N 155.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

NNNN
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Re: EPAC: NINE-E - Post-Tropical

#30 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Jul 27, 2018 12:37 pm

557
WTPZ44 KNHC 271431
TCDEP4

Remnants Of Nine-E Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092018
800 AM PDT Fri Jul 27 2018

Satellite images indicate that the circulation of the depression is
no longer closed and instead now resembles an northeast-southwest
oriented trough. This system is also well embedded in the
Intertropical Convergence Zone, an indication that it is not a
discrete cyclone. Therefore, this system does not qualify as a
tropical cyclone, and this is the last advisory issued by the
National Hurricane Center. The initial intensity is lowered to 25
kt, in general agreement with the Dvorak estimates.

The remnants of the cyclone are moving westward at 11 kt, and the
trough is expected to move into the Central Pacific basin later
today. Future information on this system can be found in Tropical
Weather Outlooks issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center,
which can be found on the web at http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/1500Z 10.6N 138.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...REMNANTS
12H 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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Re: EPAC: NINE-E - Tropical Depression

#31 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Jul 27, 2018 12:38 pm

hurricanes1234 wrote:This was doomed to be ripped to shreds ever since it "formed" yesterday. Pathetic.



This was a legit TC for a while if you ask me but a while as in 6-12 hours.
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