EPAC: NINE-E - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

Location: 11.3°N 134.6°W
Maximum Winds: 25 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1009 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1010 mb
Radius of Circulation: 150 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 50 NM

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP922018 07/26/18 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 28 29 29 32 35 39 41 45 47 52
V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 28 29 29 32 35 39 41 45 47 52
V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 27 27 28 30 32 36
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 27 20 15 16 19 23 24 24 19 21 19 16 12
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 3 2 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 -1 -2
SHEAR DIR 335 349 351 346 346 348 345 350 355 26 37 34 29
SST (C) 27.9 27.2 27.5 27.6 28.0 28.5 28.4 28.5 29.1 29.1 28.9 28.8 28.6
POT. INT. (KT) 145 137 140 141 146 151 150 151 157 157 155 153 151
200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.0 -53.4 -53.6 -53.8 -53.5 -53.4 -53.3 -53.7 -53.6 -53.9 -54.1 -54.3
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 7 8 7 7 7 8 8 9 10
700-500 MB RH 69 67 67 67 65 59 64 66 68 66 66 62 64
MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 8 7 7 6 6 7 7 7 6 5 5
850 MB ENV VOR -1 0 6 12 1 -16 -5 7 21 21 29 28 23
200 MB DIV -5 15 56 32 12 -17 -20 -21 -13 -23 17 57 76
700-850 TADV -4 -4 -6 -8 -6 -4 -5 -4 -1 0 0 0 0
LAND (KM) 2348 2201 2086 2000 1927 1789 1685 1573 1459 1362 1313 1327 1386
LAT (DEG N) 11.3 11.3 11.1 10.6 10.0 8.9 7.7 6.9 6.6 6.8 7.1 7.3 7.5
LONG(DEG W) 134.6 136.1 137.4 138.6 139.8 142.3 145.0 147.9 150.9 153.6 156.2 158.5 160.8
STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 13 13 14 14 15 15 14 13 12 11 12
HEAT CONTENT 9 7 7 7 9 22 20 30 64 63 42 22 24

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 691 (MEAN=584)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.3 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 10. 17. 24. 29. 33. 35. 35.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -5. -8. -11. -13. -13. -12.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 3.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -2. -3.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 7. 10. 14. 16. 20. 22. 27.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.3 134.6

** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922018 INVEST 07/26/18 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.77 999.0
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.6 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.8 1.8 to 106.7 0.06 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.29 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.46 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 95.0 721.6 to -82.5 0.78 999.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 14.5 62.3 to 0.0 0.77 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.40 999.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.5 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 5.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.5% 3.4% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% 1.2% 28.0%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 0.2% 3.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.4% 9.3%
DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922018 INVEST 07/26/18 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX

[Yellow Evan]

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a small low pressure
system are located around 1800 miles west-southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula. This system is forecast to
move westward and only a small increase in organization could
result in the formation of a tropical depression later today or
early Friday before unfavorable upper-level winds become established
over the disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

[NDG]

92E last night had a better defined circulation than 91E.

[cycloneye]

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a small low pressure
system are located a little more than 1800 miles west-southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. This system is
forecast to move westward and only a small increase in organization
could result in the formation of a tropical depression later today
or early Friday. After that time, unfavorable upper-level winds
are expected to become established over the disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

[Kingarabian]

Better convective signature compared to 91E, but shear is flatting the northern periphery of the system, because what would a 2018 EPAC system be without shear?

[Yellow Evan]

I could be convinced that this is classifiable. It's the classic displaced convection but non-naked center borderline TC type case.

[Kingarabian]

I could be convinced that this is classifiable. It's the classic displaced convection but non-naked center borderline TC type case.

I would classify it as well. Even 90E last week was classifiable since it was the same case. But the NHC this year wants as much indication as possible before they classify anything, much less a sheared TD.

[Yellow Evan]

26/1800 UTC 10.3N 134.3W T1.5/1.5 92E -- East Pacific

[Kingarabian]

26/1800 UTC 10.3N 134.3W T1.5/1.5 92E -- East Pacific

Would be dope to see two classifications by the next advisory.

[Yellow Evan]

[cycloneye]

Tropical Depression Nine-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092018
200 PM PDT Thu Jul 26 2018

Satellite data indicate that the low pressure system located over
the far western portion of the eastern Pacific basin has developed
sufficient organization to be classified a tropical depression, the
ninth one of the season and second one of the afternoon. The
initial intensity is set to 30 kt. Although the depression is
expected to be over warm SSTs and in a moist environment during the
next few days, strong northerly shear should prevent strengthening.
The intensity guidance shows little change in strength through the
forecast period, and most of the global models show the system
opening into a trough within the next few days. Based on this
information, the NHC official intensity forecast shows a steady
30-kt depression through the period, but it would not be surprising
if the cyclone dissipated sometime in the forecast period.

The depression is moving to the west at 12 kt steered by the flow
on the south side of a mid-level ridge. This general motion is
expected during the next several days, taking the system into the
central Pacific basin in 24 to 36 hours, and well south of the
Hawaiian Islands in 4 to 5 days. The NHC track forecast lies near
the various consensus models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/2100Z 11.0N 135.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 27/0600Z 10.9N 137.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 27/1800Z 10.8N 139.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 28/0600Z 10.7N 141.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 28/1800Z 10.8N 143.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 29/1800Z 11.8N 148.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 30/1800Z 12.8N 153.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 31/1800Z 13.5N 159.5W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[Kingarabian]

I knew it! There, we go. The EPAC is potentially back in business now.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Some impressive stuff from the East Pacific this month. /s

Environment is crap. It becomes better by day 5, but I'm not sure it'll survive that long to take advantage.

[Yellow Evan]

This won't earn a name but always a good afternoon when 2 TC's form at once.

[Yellow Evan]

26/1800 UTC 10.3N 134.3W T1.5/1.5 92E -- East Pacific

Would be dope to see two classifications by the next advisory.

This aged well.

[Yellow Evan]

Disregard SHIPS as track is too south.

* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP922018 07/26/18 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 29 30 31 34 38 43 44 47 51 54
V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 29 30 31 34 38 43 44 47 51 54
V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 26 26 26 27 28 29 30 33 36 42
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 19 12 14 18 22 22 24 16 19 20 13 6 7
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 5 4 1 0 0 -3 -1 0 -5 -3 0 0
SHEAR DIR 351 349 347 345 347 347 350 360 10 26 23 31 12
SST (C) 27.7 27.6 27.8 27.8 28.2 28.6 28.3 28.2 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.4 28.6
POT. INT. (KT) 142 141 143 143 148 152 149 148 154 154 154 149 152
200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.3 -53.5 -53.8 -53.9 -53.5 -53.6 -53.5 -53.9 -53.8 -54.2 -54.1 -54.5
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 10 10
700-500 MB RH 67 68 67 66 62 61 65 66 65 64 63 61 62
MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 8 7 7 7 8 8 8 7 6 5 4
850 MB ENV VOR 3 5 7 -1 -12 -6 9 24 30 30 32 20 7
200 MB DIV 12 38 38 21 9 -11 -47 -29 -10 7 0 31 36
700-850 TADV -3 -4 -6 -5 -4 -4 -5 -3 0 0 1 1 0
LAND (KM) 2323 2202 2100 2011 1926 1780 1661 1522 1377 1252 1200 1208 1275
LAT (DEG N) 11.0 10.9 10.5 10.1 9.6 8.7 7.9 7.5 7.5 7.9 8.1 8.3 8.5
LONG(DEG W) 135.0 136.3 137.6 138.8 140.1 142.6 145.1 147.8 150.6 153.1 155.6 158.1 160.6
STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 14 13 12 12 12 13
HEAT CONTENT 8 8 7 7 16 22 17 25 41 38 47 17 22

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 666 (MEAN=584)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.6 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.1

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 10. 17. 24. 29. 33. 35. 35.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -6. -8. -10. -9. -7.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -3. -5.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 4. 5. 6. 9. 13. 18. 19. 22. 26. 29.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.0 135.0

** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922018 INVEST 07/26/18 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.78 4.4
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.2
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.0 19.6 to 1.4 0.15 0.8
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.2 1.8 to 106.7 0.07 0.3
D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.30 1.4
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.57 2.2
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 99.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.77 -2.5
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.8 62.3 to 0.0 0.86 0.3
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.2 to -1.9 0.75 0.4

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 8.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 10.9% 9.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 2.4% 9.8% 2.9% 1.3% 0.4% 1.2% 4.2% 40.6%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 0.8% 7.0% 4.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.4% 1.4% 13.5%
DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922018 INVEST 07/26/18 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX

[Kingarabian]

This won't earn a name but always a good afternoon when 2 TC's form at once.

Cangialosi keeps it @ 30kts for the next 5 days. That alone is a very good chance for it to be named.

[hurricanes1234]

Even if it does get named, a weak and sheared 35 knot storm won't be too different from a weak and sheared 30 knot depression.

Until this shear abates (not just on the models, but in real life as well), we'll be singing the same "shear, shear, oh dear" song.

[Yellow Evan]

This won't earn a name but always a good afternoon when 2 TC's form at once.

Cangialosi keeps it @ 30kts for the next 5 days. That alone is a very good chance for it to be named.

NHC over relying on SHIPS/LGEM which keep low latitude storms going too long. Most globals open this up soon. If this wants to earn a name, now is the time.