WPAC: HECTOR - Post-Tropical

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Re: CPAC: HECTOR - Hurricane

#881 Postby storm_in_a_teacup » Sun Aug 12, 2018 1:03 pm

Twisted-core wrote:Mid-latitude westerlies.


Do the westerlies inherently have more shear than say, the trade winds? If so, is there any particular reason?

...sorry about all these questions I’m rather ignorant about these subjects.
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Re: CPAC: HECTOR - Hurricane

#882 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 12, 2018 5:43 pm

Hurricane Hector Discussion Number 50
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP102018
1100 AM HST Sun Aug 12 2018

Hector continues to weaken this morning due to south-southwesterly
shear of around 16 kt over the system as analyzed by the latest
UW-CIMSS shear analysis. The low level circulation center in
visible satellite imagery appears to be on the south side of the
deepest convection. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity
estimates were 4.0 (65 knots) from PHFO and SAB, and 3.5 (55 knots)
from JTWC. The satellite presentation clearly shows that weakening
is ongoing, but given the persistent deep convection near the low
level circulation center and necessary spin down time needed
as these systems weaken, will only lower the initial intensity to
65 knots with this advisory. The initial motion is set at 300/15
knots.

The latest model guidance remains tightly clustered through 72
hours, with the spread in the track guidance increasing
considerably at 96 and 120 hours. Hector is expected to continue
on a west-northwest track today on the eastern periphery of an upper
level low to the west of the International Date Line. The system is
expected to make a turn to a more westerly direction tonight,
and continue on this course through Wednesday as an upper level
ridge builds north of the system. A turn toward the northwest and
eventually north is then expected Wednesday night through Friday as
Hector rounds the southwest periphery of the upper level ridge. The
new official forecast track is very close to the consensus guidance
as well as the track from the previous advisory.

The intensity forecast calls for slow weakening of Hector over
the next 12 to 24 hours as the system will remain in southwesterly
shear of around 15 kt. The shear is forecast to decrease beyond 24
hours, but the system will likely have weakened by this time and
will be moving over cooler sea surface temperatures. The intensity
guidance is in fairly good agreement through 36 hours, so confidence
during this portion of the forecast is fairly good. There is quite a
bit of spread in the intensity guidance beyond 36 hours however,
with the HWRF and CTCI models continuing to show Hector
re-intensifying a bit during the 48 through 72 hour time frame.
This seems really aggressive given the state the hurricane is in at
the moment and with the continued weakening forecast. As a result,
the official intensity forecast calls for slow weakening through
Monday morning, with Hector becoming a Tropical Storm later today or
tonight. Beyond 24 hours the forecast intensity has been held
steady through 48 hours, with slow weakening expected at the end of
the forecast period as Hector transitions over to an extratropical
system.

Probabilities for tropical storm force winds reaching the
Northwestern Hawaiian Islands have decreased since the previous
advisory. A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for Kure Atoll
and Midway Atoll and waters between Midway Atoll and Pearl and
Hermes Atoll. The Tropical Storm Watch has been discontinued for
the area from Lisianski Island to Pearl and Hermes Atoll. If Hector
continues to weaken as expected, and the forecast track to the
west-northwest continues, the Tropical Storm Watches currently in
effect may be canceled later today or tonight.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/2100Z 23.7N 175.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 13/0600Z 24.8N 177.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 13/1800Z 26.2N 179.0E 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 14/0600Z 27.0N 175.9E 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 14/1800Z 28.1N 172.8E 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 15/1800Z 30.4N 166.5E 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 16/1800Z 33.7N 162.7E 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 17/1800Z 38.0N 161.9E 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Burke
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Re: CPAC: HECTOR - Hurricane

#883 Postby 1900hurricane » Sun Aug 12, 2018 6:42 pm

Looks to be barely staying coupled at this point.
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Re: CPAC: HECTOR - Hurricane

#884 Postby storminabox » Sun Aug 12, 2018 7:15 pm

mrbagyo wrote:Image
Whut? It's still a cane???

10E HECTOR 180812 1200 22.4N 173.6W EPAC 75 984


That is some incredible shear
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Re: CPAC: HECTOR - Tropical Storm

#885 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 12, 2018 10:44 pm

Finnally was downgraded.

Tropical Storm Hector Discussion Number 51
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP102018
500 PM HST Sun Aug 12 2018

Hector continues to weaken this afternoon due to south-southwesterly
shear of around 10 kt over the system as analyzed by the latest
UW-CIMSS shear analysis. The low level circulation center in
visible satellite imagery remains on the south side of the
deepest convection. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity
estimates were 3.5 (55 knots) from PHFO, SAB, and JTWC. The
satellite presentation clearly shows that slow weakening is ongoing,
but given the persistent deep convection near the low level
circulation center and necessary spin down time needed
as these systems weaken, will only lower the initial intensity to
60 knots with this advisory. The initial motion is set at 300/15
knots.

The latest model guidance remains tightly clustered through 72
hours, with the spread in the track guidance increasing at 96 and
120 hours. Hector is expected to continue on a west-northwest track
tonight on the eastern periphery of an upper level low to the west
of the International Date Line. The system is expected to make a
turn to a more westerly direction on Monday, and continue on this
course through Wednesday as an upper level ridge builds north of the
system. A turn toward the northwest and eventually north is then
expected Wednesday night through Friday as Hector rounds the
southwest periphery of the upper level ridge. The new official
forecast track is very close to the consensus guidance as well as
the track from the previous advisory.

The intensity forecast calls for slow weakening of Hector over
the next 12 to 24 hours as the system will remain in southwesterly
shear of 10 to 15 kt. The shear is forecast to decrease beyond 24
hours, but the system will likely have weakened by this time and
will be moving over cooler sea surface temperatures. The intensity
guidance is in fairly good agreement through 36 hours, so confidence
during this portion of the forecast is fairly good. Most of the
intensity guidance levels off during the 36 through 48 hour time
frame while SHIPS guidance and AVNI indicating some strengthening.
This seems rather aggressive given the state the hurricane is in at
the moment. As a result, the official intensity forecast calls for
slow weakening through Monday afternoon. Beyond 24 hours the
forecast intensity has been held steady through 48 hours, with slow
weakening expected at the end of the forecast period due to
increasing shear and cooler sea surface temperatures. Hector is
forecast to transition over to an extratropical system in about 96
hours.

Probabilities for tropical storm force winds reaching the
Northwestern Hawaiian Islands have decreased since the previous
advisory. A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for Kure Atoll
and Midway Atoll. The Tropical Storm Watch has been discontinued for
the waters between Midway Atoll and Pearl and Hermes Atoll. If
Hector remains on its forecast track to the west-northwest, the
Tropical Storm Watches currently in effect may be canceled later
tonight.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0300Z 24.6N 177.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 13/1200Z 25.6N 179.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 14/0000Z 26.7N 177.6E 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 14/1200Z 27.8N 174.5E 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 15/0000Z 28.8N 171.4E 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 16/0000Z 31.5N 165.8E 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 17/0000Z 35.1N 162.7E 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 18/0000Z 39.8N 162.8E 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Burke
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Re: CPAC: HECTOR - Tropical Storm

#886 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 13, 2018 7:18 am

Still a Tropical Storm? I dont think so.

Image

Tropical Storm Hector Discussion Number 52
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP102018
1100 PM HST Sun Aug 12 2018

Hector's appearance has severely degraded according to satellite
imagery this evening. The low-level circulation center (LLCC) is
becoming almost entirely exposed, and the last area of deep
convection has nearly dissipated, leaving behind mainly cirrus
debris. This is not unexpected given the vertical wind shear of
11 to 14 kt from the south-southwest according to the latest
SHIPS and UW-CIMSS analyses. The most recent subjective Dvorak
intensity estimates are T3.5/55 knots from PHFO and SAB, and
T3.0/45 knots from JTWC based on a shear pattern. The UW-CIMSS ADT
estimate is T2.5/35 knots. Based on all of this guidance, we are
lowering the initial intensity to 55 knots for this advisory.

Since we can easily monitor the movement of the exposed LLCC in
satellite imagery, the initial motion is set at 295/15 knots. The
track forecast has been adjusted slightly from the previous
one. Surprisingly, the latest model guidance remains tightly
clustered through 72 hours, with the spread in the forecast tracks
increasing on Days 4 and 5. Hector is expected to continue on a
west-northwest track along the eastern periphery of a retrograding
upper-level low located just west of the International Date Line
near Longitude 173E. As this low aloft continues to move west, an
upper level ridge is forecast to build north of the Hector. This
will likely keep the tropical storm moving toward the
west-northwest during the next 48 hours. A gradual turn toward the
northwest is expected in around 72 hours, followed by a turn
toward the north on days 4 and 5, as Hector rounds the western
end of the ridge. The latest forecast track remains very close to
the consensus guidance. Note that since the system is sheared, the
forecast track is also close to the TABS through 48 hours. Based on
the latest forecast track, Hector will likely cross the
International Dateline into the Northwestern Pacific on Monday.

The latest intensity forecast is very close to the previous forecast
package. The forecast indicates additional weakening is expected
during the next 12 hours. Based on the current appearance and the
continuing southwesterly shear of 10 to 15 knots, it is likely this
will occur. The forecast guidance continues to show the shear may
relax within 18 to 24 hours, but the system will likely be weaker by
this time and will be moving over cooler sea surface temperatures.
The intensity guidance is in fairly good agreement through 36 hours,
so confidence during this portion of the forecast is fairly good.
Most of the intensity guidance levels off during the 36 through 48
hour time frame, while the SHIPS guidance and GFS indicate some
unrealistic strengthening. The main weakening trend is on days 3 and
4. In addition, Hector is forecast to transition to an extratropical
gale low in about 96 hours.

Since the current track continues to shift more toward the west, the
Tropical Storm Watch has been discontinued for Kure Atoll and Midway
Atoll. Note that large breaking waves are still likely to persist
along the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands from tonight into Monday due
to the southeast swell generated by Hector.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0900Z 24.9N 178.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 13/1800Z 25.9N 178.9E 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 14/0600Z 27.0N 175.9E 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 14/1800Z 28.0N 172.8E 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 15/0600Z 29.2N 169.8E 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 16/0600Z 32.0N 164.5E 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 17/0600Z 36.0N 162.5E 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 18/0600Z 42.0N 164.5E 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Houston
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Re: CPAC: HECTOR - Tropical Storm

#887 Postby Ntxw » Mon Aug 13, 2018 7:22 am

Shear has taken Hector. His life was good in the EPAC+CPAC. I guess no ACE snatching for the WPAC this go round.
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Re: CPAC: HECTOR - Tropical Storm

#888 Postby Cyclenall » Mon Aug 13, 2018 7:54 am

I've never seen a 55 knot TS look like a convectionless swirl. I wish recon could go in that. Lots of blobs in the Epac with banding don't get called yet this is 55. If its spin down delay, then hypothetically if a CAT5 hurricane suddenly ran into 160 knots of wind shear and tore all the convection away would the naked swirl left behind be a major hurricane at 100 knots?
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Re: CPAC: HECTOR - Tropical Storm

#889 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Aug 13, 2018 8:24 am

Looks like its beginning to cross into the WPac now.
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Re: CPAC: HECTOR - Tropical Storm

#890 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 13, 2018 10:30 am

Indeed it crossed.

Tropical Storm Hector Discussion Number 53
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP102018
500 AM HST Mon Aug 13 2018

The core of Hector has been nearly devoid of deep convection since
late Sunday afternoon. The most recent estimate of vertical wind
shear from SHIPS is about 16 knots from the southwest. A few
thunderstorms have recently developed in the northwest semicircle
far from the exposed low-level circulation center (LLCC). However,
this does not appear to be enough to revive Hector in the near
future. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates are
T3.0/45 knots from PHFO, SAB, and JTWC. The UW-CIMSS ADT estimate
is T2.0/30 knots. Based on all of this guidance, we are lowering
the initial intensity to 45 knots, which may be generous, for this
advisory.

Since we can easily monitor the movement of the exposed LLCC in
satellite imagery, the initial motion is set at 290/15 knots. The
track forecast has been adjusted only slightly from the previous
one. Again, the latest model guidance remains tightly clustered
through 72 hours, with the spread in the forecast tracks increasing
on Days 4 and 5. Hector is expected to continue on a west-northwest
track along the eastern periphery of a retrograding upper-level low
located west of the International Date Line near Longitude 171E. As
this low aloft continues to move west, an upper level ridge is
forecast to build north of the Hector. This will likely steer the
tropical storm toward the west-northwest during the next 48 hours. A
gradual turn toward the northwest is expected around 72 hours,
followed by a turn toward the north on days 4 and 5, as Hector
rounds the western end of the ridge. The latest forecast track
remains very close to the consensus guidance. Note that since the
system is sheared, the forecast track is also close to the TABS
through 48 hours.

The latest intensity forecast is adjusted downward due to the
continued relatively rapid weakening of Hector. The forecast
guidance shows the shear may relax within 12 to 24 hours, but the
system will likely be weaker by this time. In addition, it will be
moving over cooler sea surface temperatures. The intensity guidance
is in fairly good agreement through 36 hours, so confidence during
this portion of the forecast is fairly good. Most of the intensity
guidance levels off during the 36 through 48 hour time frame, while
the SHIPS guidance and GFS indicate some unrealistic strengthening.
The main weakening trend is during days 3 through 5. In addition,
Hector is forecast to transition to an extratropical system in about
96 hours.

Note that large breaking waves will likely persist this morning
along portions of the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands, especially
in the vicinity of Kure Atoll and Midway Atoll, due to south and
southeast swells generated by Hector.

This will be the final advisory from the Central Pacific Hurricane
Center on this system. The next bulletin will be issued by RSMC
Tokyo Japan. For U.S. interests, see Department of Defense warnings
issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center in Honolulu, Hawaii.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/1500Z 25.3N 179.8E 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 14/0000Z 26.2N 177.4E 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 14/1200Z 27.4N 174.2E 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 15/0000Z 28.5N 171.1E 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 15/1200Z 29.9N 168.1E 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 16/1200Z 33.0N 164.0E 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 17/1200Z 37.5N 163.5E 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 18/1200Z 43.5N 166.5E 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Houston
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Re: CPAC: HECTOR - Tropical Storm

#891 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 13, 2018 10:31 am

So what is the final ACE count? CSU has 49.7 but I know there are other different counts like Maue 1900hurricane etc.
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Re: CPAC: HECTOR - Tropical Storm

#892 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Aug 13, 2018 12:56 pm

cycloneye wrote:So what is the final ACE count? CSU has 49.7 but I know there are other different counts like Maue 1900hurricane etc.


Ryan Maue has it @ 50.6375
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Re: CPAC: HECTOR - Tropical Storm

#893 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Aug 13, 2018 1:02 pm

My east of the Date Line total up to the 12Z best track point today is 49.735 units of ACE.
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Re: CPAC: HECTOR - Tropical Storm

#894 Postby wxman57 » Mon Aug 13, 2018 1:08 pm

ASCAT hit from 08Z (3am CDT) indicates max of 30kt winds then. No way it was a 55kt TS at the time. I think that CPHC may have been overestimating Hector's intensity. For example, carrying it as a 95 kt hurricane when the eye had disappeared on microwave imagery.
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Re: CPAC: HECTOR - Tropical Storm

#895 Postby Cunxi Huang » Mon Aug 13, 2018 1:35 pm

longStormName: Hector
typhoonInternationalCommonNumberTyphoonCommittee: 1817
identificationNumberOfTropicalCyclone: 22


By JMA.
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Re: CPAC: HECTOR - Tropical Storm

#896 Postby Cunxi Huang » Mon Aug 13, 2018 2:27 pm

Image

WTPQ20 RJTD 131800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1817 HECTOR (1817) FORMER TS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 131800UTC 25.8N 179.3E FAIR
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 90NM
FORECAST
24HF 141800UTC 28.4N 172.7E 60NM 70%
MOVE WNW 15KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 151800UTC 30.6N 167.0E 110NM 70%
MOVE WNW 14KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 161800UTC 33.3N 164.3E 130NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =
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Re: WPAC: HECTOR - Tropical Storm

#897 Postby euro6208 » Mon Aug 13, 2018 5:08 pm

40 knots.

WDPN32 PGTW 132100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 10E (HECTOR)
WARNING NR 54//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10E (HECTOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 852 NM
NORTHWEST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 17
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS BEGUN TO FLARE UP OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A 131804Z 91GHZ
SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH SHOWS THE BROAD CIRCULATION WITH THE
FLARING DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LLCC. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY ABOVE A 131406Z
SATCON ESTIMATE OF 38 KNOTS AND ALSO SLIGHTLY ABOVE DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSES SHOWS LIMITED POLEWARD OUTFLOW WHICH IS FEEDING INTO A
TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL LOCATED TO THE WEST.
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS). SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE, NEAR 28 DEGREES CELSIUS. TS 10E IS
TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING AND SETS THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY.
B. TS 10E WILL TRACK NORTHWESTERLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED STR THROUGH TAU 48. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL SLIGHTLY
WEAKEN BY TAU 24 AND WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION TO 45
KNOTS BY TAU 24. HOWEVER, AFTER TAU 24, INTENSITY WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE AS TS 10E WILL BEGIN TO EXPERIENCE INCREASED VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. HOWEVER, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE. AFTER
TAU 48, TS 10E WILL TRACK MORE NORTHERLY AS IT ROUNDS THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE STR. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT,
THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, TS 10E WILL BEGIN TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY
ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR, NORTH OF THE STR AXIS. BY TAU 96,
AN APPROACHING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL ACCELERATE TS 10E TO THE
NORTHEAST. THERE IS A SLIGHTLY LARGER SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE FOR
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST TRACK. HOWEVER, GUIDANCE IS STILL IN
GOOD AGREEMENT. THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION
OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: HECTOR - Tropical Storm

#898 Postby Twisted-core » Mon Aug 13, 2018 6:25 pm

Image
https://imgur.com/areTOq7
Appears it is stuck between two upper-level lows.
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Re: WPAC: HECTOR - Tropical Storm

#899 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 13, 2018 8:51 pm

TS 1817 (Hector)
Issued at 01:10 UTC, 14 August 2018

<Analysis at 00 UTC, 14 August>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N26°20' (26.3°)
E176°55' (176.9°)
Direction and speed of movement W 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 998 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 170 km (90 NM)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 14 August>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N27°25' (27.4°)
E173°40' (173.7°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 15 August>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N28°55' (28.9°)
E170°35' (170.6°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30 km/h (16 kt)
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 16 August>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N31°35' (31.6°)
E165°25' (165.4°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 25 km/h (13 kt)
Central pressure 1002 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 17 August>
Intensity -
TD
Center position of probability circle N34°50' (34.8°)
E162°50' (162.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 1004 hPa
Radius of probability circle 240 km (130 NM)
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euro6208
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Re: WPAC: HECTOR - Tropical Storm

#900 Postby euro6208 » Mon Aug 13, 2018 11:34 pm

Down to 35 knots.

WDPN32 PGTW 140300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 10E (HECTOR)
WARNING NR 55//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 10E (HECTOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 934 NM
NORTHWEST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS WEAK CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING
DEEP CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE ANIMATED MSI LOOP AND A
140000Z HIMIWARI VISIBLE IMAGE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS SUPPORTED BY
A 140031Z 88.2 GHZ ATMS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING WEAK BANDING
WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED
ON THE UPPER END OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM
T2.0 TO T2.5 FROM KNES AND PGTW RESPECTIVELY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
SHOWS A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL WHICH IS FEEDING INTO A TROPICAL
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL LOCATED TO THE WEST.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE
(15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA REMAIN FAVORABLE AROUND 28 DEGREES CELSIUS.
TS 10E IS CURRENTLY TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 10E IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTERLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED STR THROUGH TAU 48. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
WILL SLIGHTLY WEAKEN BY TAU 12 WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR BRIEF
INTENSIFICATION TO 40 KNOTS BY TAU 12. HOWEVER, AFTER TAU 24,
INTENSITY WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AS TS 10E WILL BEGIN TO EXPERIENCE
INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ALONG TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE CAUSING A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND. AFTER TAU
48, TS 10E WILL TRACK MORE NORTHERLY AS IT ROUNDS THE WESTERN EXTENT
OF THE STR, CROSSING THE RIDGE AXIS SHORTLY BEFORE TAU 72. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, TS 10E WILL BEGIN TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY
ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR, NORTH OF THE STR AXIS. THE SYSTEM
WILL ALSO BEGIN EXTRA TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) BY TAU 72. AS TS
HECTOR UNDERGOES ETT, AN APPROACHING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL
ACCELERATE THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTHEAST AND CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO
BECOME FULLY EXTRA-TROPICAL BY TAU 96. THERE IS A SLIGHTLY LARGER
SPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST TRACK
AS INDIVIDUAL SOLUTIONS VARY ON THE SHARPNESS OF THE RECURVE TO THE
NORTHEAST. DESPITE THE VARIATIONS, GUIDANCE IS STILL IN GOOD
AGREEMENT LENDING OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION
OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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