WPAC: YAGI - Post-Tropical

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WPAC: YAGI - Post-Tropical

#1 Postby doomhaMwx » Tue Jul 31, 2018 11:28 pm

93W INVEST 180801 0000 18.5N 137.2E WPAC 15 1008

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Re: WPAC: Invest 93W

#2 Postby euro6208 » Wed Aug 01, 2018 5:10 am

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
18.9N 136.6E, APPROXIMATELY 435 NM SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 010054Z ASCAT PASS DEPICT A
BROAD REGION OF LOW LEVEL TURNING BELOW LIGHT, FLARING CONVECTION.
WARM (28-29C) SSTS, LOW (5-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND
ADEQUATE DIVERGENCE ALOFT CONTRIBUTE TO A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN OVERALL AGREEMENT THAT 93W
WILL MERGE WITH 94W IN THE MID-LATE TAU RANGE AS THE COMBINED SYSTEM
DEVELOPS INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
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Re: WPAC: Invest 93W

#3 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Aug 01, 2018 6:48 am

Looks like guidance may be trying to develop this one.
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Re: WPAC: Invest 93W

#4 Postby euro6208 » Wed Aug 01, 2018 8:12 am

What a year so far so Japan.

Both EURO and GFS has this hitting near Tokyo...
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Re: WPAC: Invest 93W

#5 Postby euro6208 » Wed Aug 01, 2018 8:09 pm

93W INVEST
As of 00:00 UTC Aug 02, 2018:

Location: 20.9°N 138.4°E
Maximum Winds: 15 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 mb

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Re: WPAC: Invest 93W

#6 Postby euro6208 » Wed Aug 01, 2018 8:18 pm

euro6208 wrote:What a year so far so Japan.

Both EURO and GFS has this hitting near Tokyo...


Well latest EURO now get this absorbed into 94W. GFS says otherwise.
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Re: WPAC: Invest 93W

#7 Postby euro6208 » Wed Aug 01, 2018 10:53 pm

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 18.9N 136.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 140.1E, APPROXIMATELY
260 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOW BROAD TURNING WITH FLARING CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE
WEST. A 012036Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THERE IS WEAK
ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM. OVERALL, THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS
NEUTRAL FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, NO DEFINED OUTFLOW CHANNEL, AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS DIFFER IN DEVELOPMENT WITH GFS
INDICATING DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST, MERGING WITH 94W
AND THEN STRENGTHENING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. OTHER MODELS SUCH AS
NAVGEM DEPICT LITTLE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS LOW.
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Re: WPAC: Invest 93W

#8 Postby euro6208 » Thu Aug 02, 2018 4:37 am

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 20.5N 140.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 138.4E, APPROXIMATELY
281 NM SOUTHWEST OF IWO-TO, JAPAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 080031Z MHS METOP-A 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A POORLY
ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH SCATTERED
CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH DUAL OUTFLOW ALOFT. WARM (29-
30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE SURROUNDING WATERS WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FUTURE DEVELOPMENT. A PARTIAL RECENT ASCAT PASS
INDICATES A BROAD CIRCULATION CENTER. GLOBAL MODELS DIFFER WITH THE
TIMING OF 93W DEVELOPMENT AS IT TRACKS TO THE NORTHWEST AND FOLLOWS
THE 94W PATH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO
20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
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Re: WPAC: Invest 93W

#9 Postby euro6208 » Fri Aug 03, 2018 6:11 am

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 21.2N 139.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 137.8E, APPROXIMATELY
455 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF ANDERSEN AB, GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A DISORGANIZED AND BROAD LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION. A 030010Z MHS METOP-A
89 GHZ IMAGE CONFIRMS A POORLY-ORGANIZED LLC, LACKING DEFINED
STRUCTURE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 93W HAS REMAINED IN A
NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (5-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
WEAK OUTFLOW ALOFT. A RECENT ASCAT PASS REVEALED A SMALL AREA OF 15-
20 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE LLC'S SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. ADDITIONALLY,
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29C) ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT. DYNAMIC MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT, INDICTING
INSIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT, FOLLOWING THE SAME TRAJECTORY AS 17W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
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Re: WPAC: Invest 93W

#10 Postby euro6208 » Fri Aug 03, 2018 6:13 am

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Re: WPAC: Invest 93W

#11 Postby euro6208 » Fri Aug 03, 2018 7:42 pm

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 17.1N 137.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 138.8E, APPROXIMATELY
480 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A DISORGANIZED AND BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC)
WITH FLARING CONVECTION TO THE WEST. A 031551Z GMI 89GHZ IMAGE
SUPPORTS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH INTERMITTENT POCKETS OF
CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THE LLC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
LOW (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND A WEAK EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL. A RECENT ASCAT PASS SHOWS A SMALL AREA OF 20 KNOT WINDS TO
THE SOUTH OF THE LLC. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 C) ARE
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. DYNAMIC MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT, SHOWING
LITTLE TO NO DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
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Re: WPAC: Invest 93W

#12 Postby euro6208 » Sat Aug 04, 2018 5:47 am

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 17.1N 138.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 138.9E, APPROXIMATELY
410 NM NORTHWEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED BROAD AREA OF LOW LEVEL TURNING WITH
DISORGANIZED FLARING CONVECTION TO THE WEST. 93W IS CURRENTLY UNDER
A NARROW BAND OF LOW (5-10 KNOT) VWS WITH STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT.
HOWEVER, OUTFLOW IS LIMITED IN THE EASTERN SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM DUE
TO INTERFERENCE FROM EASTERLY OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH TS 17W. SSTS
REMAIN WARM (28-29C) AND ARE CONDUCIVE TO DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS
GENERALLY PREDICT 93W BEING ABSORBED INTO 17W IN THE MID-TAU RANGE,
WITH THE UKMO DISSENTING AND MAINTAINING A SEPARATE CIRCULATION
THROUGH THE END OF THE MODEL RUN. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
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Re: WPAC: Invest 93W

#13 Postby euro6208 » Sun Aug 05, 2018 3:27 am

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 17.2N 138.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 133.2E, APPROXIMATELY
630 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 050110Z 89GHZ AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW
FLARING CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATING LLCC. A 050032Z
PARTIAL ASCAT PASS SHOWS A BROAD SWATH OF 15KT WINDS WITH OCCASIONAL
20KT WINDS WEST OF THE LLCC, HOWEVER, A 042310Z OSCAT IMAGE SHOWS A
MUCH STRONGER SWATH OF 20-25KT WINDS DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH.
ADEQUATE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, LOW (5-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, AND WARM (28-29C) SSTS CREATE AN OVERALL FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY FAVOR 93W
INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY, SOME MAINTAINING IT AS A DISTINCT SYSTEM AND
SOME MERGING IT INTO TY 17W TO THE NORTHEAST AFTER SEVERAL DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
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Re: WPAC: Invest 93W

#14 Postby euro6208 » Sun Aug 05, 2018 4:58 pm

Image

WTPN21 PGTW 052030
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17.4N 133.9E TO 23.7N 138.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
051900Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N
134.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 17.1N 133.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 134.1E, APPROXIMATELY
585 NM SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF PERSISTENT CONVECTION LOCATED OVER AN
ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH BANDING BEGINNING TO
WRAP IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. A 051818Z SSMI 85GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF TURNING WITH WEAK BANDING TO THE NORTHWEST AND
CONFIRMS PERSISTENT CONVECTION OVER THE WEST HALF OF THE SYSTEM. THE
DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF GOOD TO MODERATE
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30 CELSIUS).
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHWARD
TO NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BUT VARY ON THEIR
INTENSITY SOLUTIONS AND WHETHER OR NOT THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH,
AND GETS ABSORBED BY 17W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
062030Z.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: Invest 93W

#15 Postby euro6208 » Mon Aug 06, 2018 4:29 am

TPPN10 PGTW 060856

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 93W (SE OKINAWA)

B. 06/0830Z

C. 18.71N

D. 134.27E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T1.0/1.5/S0.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 63A/PBO PRLY ORGNZD LLCC/ANMTN. CNVCTN SHEARED 81NM
FROM LLCC YIELDS A DT OF 1.0. MET AND PT AGREE WITH DT YIELDING
A 1.0. DBO MET.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


LEMBKE
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Re: WPAC: Invest 93W

#16 Postby euro6208 » Mon Aug 06, 2018 4:31 am

TXPQ29 KNES 060906
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (93W)

B. 06/0830Z

C. 18.8N

D. 134.0E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T1.5/1.5/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR
DATA. CIRCULARLY DEFINED CLOUD LINES LOCATED LESS THAN 1.25 DEG FROM
SMALL OVERCAST RESULTS IN DT=1.5. MET=PT=1.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...BOLL
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Re: WPAC: Invest 93W

#17 Postby euro6208 » Mon Aug 06, 2018 4:32 am

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 17.8N 134.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 134.2E, APPROXIMATELY
590 NM SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF PERSISTENT CONVECTION LOCATED OVER AN
ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH BANDING BEGINNING TO
WRAP IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. A 051818Z SSMI 85GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF TURNING WITH WEAK BANDING TO THE NORTHWEST AND
CONFIRMS PERSISTENT CONVECTION OVER THE WEST HALF OF THE SYSTEM. THE
DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF GOOD TO MODERATE
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30 CELSIUS).
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHWARD
TO NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BUT VARY ON THEIR
INTENSITY SOLUTIONS AND WHETHER OR NOT THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH,
AND GETS ABSORBED BY 17W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.
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Re: WPAC: Invest 93W

#18 Postby euro6208 » Mon Aug 06, 2018 5:21 am

Image
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Re: WPAC: Invest 93W

#19 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Aug 06, 2018 1:31 pm

This would be a great looking system if the convection and center were in the same location.
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Re: WPAC: Invest 93W

#20 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Aug 06, 2018 8:06 pm

Looks like it got the upgrade to 18W.
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