WPAC: SHANSHAN - Post-Tropical

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Re: WPAC: SHANSHAN - Typhoon

#61 Postby euro6208 » Sat Aug 04, 2018 5:22 am

Very small core

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Re: WPAC: SHANSHAN - Typhoon

#62 Postby euro6208 » Sat Aug 04, 2018 4:46 pm

Image

WDPN31 PGTW 042100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 17W (SHANSHAN) WARNING NR 09//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 17W (SHANSHAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 249 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF AGRIHAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALS THAT TY 17W HAS DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION BUT NO EYE FEATURE,
ALTHOUGH SOME FRAMES SUGGEST AN EYE IS CLOSE TO FORMING. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EIR IMAGERY AND
A 041501Z GMI 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE.
THE INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 75 KTS BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T4.5 (77 KTS) AND A 041518Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF
78 KTS. TY 17W IS IN A FAVORABLE REGION FOR INTENSIFICATION WITH LOW
(10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW,
LIMITED POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (30-31
C). THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 17W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE A NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGH
TAU 72. THROUGH TAU 24, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN FAVORABLE AND TY 17W IS EXPECTED TO REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF
95 KTS AT TAU 24. BEYOND TAU 36, 17W IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING
GRADUALLY AS EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW DECREASES SIGNIFICANTLY. AT TAU 72,
SPREAD IN NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS 400 NM, ALTHOUGH THAT
SPREAD IS REDUCED TO ABOUT 130 NM IF THE TWO EXTREME OUTLIERS
(NAVGEM AND COAMPS-GFS) ARE EXCLUDED. THROUGH TAU 72, THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE.
C. AFTER TAU 96, TY 17W IS FORECAST TO TURN SHARPLY FROM A NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD TO A NORTHEASTWARD TRACK AS IT RECURVES AROUND THE
STR. ALL NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE PREDICTS A SHARP TURN AT TAU 96
BUT DIFFER CONSIDERABLY ON THEIR POSITION WHEN THIS TURN OCCURS. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS AT TAU 96 AND 120, FAVORING A CLUSTER OF MEMBERS THAT
INCLUDES ECMWF, GALWEM, AND HWRF. THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS
UNFAVORABLE DUE TO LIMITED OUTFLOW AND TY 17W IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN,
FALLING TO 60 KTS AS THE CYCLONE APPROACHES THE KANTO PLAIN REGION
AT TAU 96. THE DEGREE OF LAND INTERACTION AS THE STORM STARTS TO
RECURVE NEAR JAPAN COULD ACCELERATE THE WEAKENING TREND. UNCERTAINTY
IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS HIGH AT TAU 96 AND 120, THEREFORE
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: SHANSHAN - Typhoon

#63 Postby euro6208 » Sat Aug 04, 2018 4:49 pm

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Re: WPAC: SHANSHAN - Typhoon

#64 Postby euro6208 » Sat Aug 04, 2018 9:45 pm

Image


WDPN31 PGTW 050300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 17W (SHANSHAN) WARNING NR 10//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 17W (SHANSHAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 352 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY THAT
SHOWS DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). THE POSITION IS SUPPORTED BY A 042243Z AMSU 89 GHZ IMAGE
WHICH SHOWS BANDING FEATURES WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. THE INTENSITY
OF 75 KTS IS BASED ON PGTW AND RJTD DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T4.5 (77 KTS). TY 17W REMAINS IN AN AREA OF LOW (10-15
KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, MARGINAL
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (30-31 C).
OVERALL, CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION. THE CYCLONE
IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 17W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE A NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGH
TAU 72. THROUGH TAU 24, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE
FOR INTENSIFICATION, WITH A PEAK OF 90 KNOTS AT TAU 24. AFTER TAU
36, 17W IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN GRADUALLY WEAKENING DUE TO REDUCED
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD, THE INTENSITY FORECAST
CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE AND THE
FORECAST TRACK CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. CONFIDENCE
IN THE FORECAST TRACK IS FAIR, BASED ON THE MODEL GUIDANCE
(EXCLUDING NAVGEM AND COAMPS-GFS) HAVING 130 NM OF SPREAD AT TAU 72.
C. AROUND TAU 72, TY 17W IS FORECAST TO BEGIN A FAIRLY SHARP
TURN TO A NORTHEASTWARD TRACK AS IT RECURVES AROUND THE STR. ALL
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE PREDICTS THIS TURN BUT THE RANGE OF TRACKS
IS QUITE LARGE, WITH SOME MEMBERS RECURVING TY 17W OVER 100 NM FROM
TOKYO AND OTHER MEMBERS BRINGING THE TRACK DIRECTLY OVER OR JUST
SOUTH OF TOKYO AROUND TAU 96. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS SLIGHTLY
SOUTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AT TAU 96 AND 120, NUDGED TOWARD
THE TRACKS DEPICTED BY ECMWF, GALWEM, GFS, AND HWRF. DURING THIS
PERIOD, LIMITED OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING TY 17W,
AND INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO BE 55 KTS AT TAU 96. UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TRACK IS HIGH AFTER TAU 72, THEREFORE, CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR THIS
PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: SHANSHAN - Typhoon

#65 Postby euro6208 » Sun Aug 05, 2018 12:40 am

Image
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Re: WPAC: SHANSHAN - Typhoon

#66 Postby NotoSans » Sun Aug 05, 2018 2:50 am

Latest microwave shows that the inner core is a bit messy and a possible outer eye. Won’t expect any rapid intensification in the near term.
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Re: WPAC: SHANSHAN - Typhoon

#67 Postby 1900hurricane » Sun Aug 05, 2018 7:12 am

Yeah for sure. Looks like it tried to develop two cores.

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Re: WPAC: SHANSHAN - Typhoon

#68 Postby mrbagyo » Sun Aug 05, 2018 10:29 am

HWRF is suggesting a mega eye structure within the next 48 to 60 hrs based n simulated it.
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Re: WPAC: SHANSHAN - Typhoon

#69 Postby NotoSans » Sun Aug 05, 2018 4:20 pm

Looks like ERC has completed and a larger eye is beginning to form as per latest EIR frames.
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Re: WPAC: SHANSHAN - Typhoon

#70 Postby euro6208 » Sun Aug 05, 2018 4:52 pm

Image

WDPN31 PGTW 052100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 17W (SHANSHAN) WARNING NR 13//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 17W (SHANSHAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 293 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 12 NM WIDE RAGGED EYE EVIDENT IN THE ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 80 KTS IS
SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T4.5 (77 KTS) AND BELOW THE 051548Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF
89 KTS. THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION WITH
LOW (5-10 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GOOD EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD
OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (28-29 C). TY 17W
CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NORTH-SOUTH
ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. THROUGH TAU 72, TY 17W WILL CONTINUE A NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. AFTER
THE INTENSITY PEAKS AT 85 KNOTS, REDUCED OUTFLOW AFTER TAU 24 IS
EXPECTED TO CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST PEAKS SLIGHTLY
ABOVE THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS BUT CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE WEAKENING
TREND. THE TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS UNTIL
TAU 72 WHERE IT DEVIATES SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE CONSENSUS POSITION TO
REFLECT A RECENT SHIFT IN GFS, ECMWF, AND NAVGEM THAT TEMPORARILY
BUILD THE STR NORTH OF THE CYCLONE AND CAUSE A BRIEF PERIOD OF WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK BETWEEN TAU 48 AND 72. THE REMAINING GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW THE TRACK CONTINUE NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72.
BASED ON THE 72 HOUR SPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE BEING ABOUT 240
NM, CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS LOW FOR THIS PORTION OF
THE FORECAST.
C. AROUND TAU 72, TY 17W IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TRACKING
NORTHEASTWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE STR AXIS. THE TIMING AND DEGREE OF
THE TURN AMONG THE GUIDANCE MEMBERS IS QUITE LARGE, ALTHOUGH MOST
SHOW THE TRACK SKIRTING THE EASTERN COAST OF JAPAN AS IT TURNS. THE
FORECAST TRACK CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND THE MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS, ALTHOUGH THE POSSIBILITY OF THE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
SHIFT MENTIONED IN PARAGRAPH 3.B. IS INCREASING. AFTER 17W RECURVES
AND NEARS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE NEAR 40 NORTH, IT WILL BEGIN
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT ACCELERATES TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE
WIND FIELD EXPANDS. INTENSITY AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND REACH 45 KTS, HOWEVER,
INTERACTION WITH A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY TEMPORARILY ENHANCE
OUTFLOW AND CAUSE A BRIEF PERIOD OF INTENSIFICATION. CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST TRACK REMAINS LOW FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST DUE
TO HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE STRENGTH OF THE STR, THE TIMING OF THE
RECURVATURE, AND THE ALONG TRACK SPEED AFTER RECURVING.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: SHANSHAN - Typhoon

#71 Postby 1900hurricane » Sun Aug 05, 2018 8:41 pm

Not the best environment to the west and northwest, especially 500 mb and up.

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Image

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Re: WPAC: SHANSHAN - Typhoon

#72 Postby euro6208 » Mon Aug 06, 2018 4:30 am

Image
Image

WDPN31 PGTW 060900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 17W (SHANSHAN) WARNING NR 15//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 17W (SHANSHAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 209 NM EAST OF
CHICHI JIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE BASED ON
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A FORMATIVE EYE. A
060302Z AMSR2 89GHZ IMAGE SHOWS CONVECTION IS DEEPER IN THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE EYEWALL. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 80 KTS IS BASED ON
PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.5 (77
KTS), AND IS CLOSE TO THE 060301Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 81 KTS, BUT
ABOVE THE LATER 060538Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 67 KTS. DRY AIR WRAPPING
IN FROM THE WEST IS PREVENTING FURTHER INTENSIFICATION DESPITE 17W
BEING IN AN OTHERWISE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (10-15 KT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GOOD EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29 C). TY 17W CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. THROUGH TAU 72, TY 17W WILL CONTINUE A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. THE DRY
AIR AND WANING OUTFLOW ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE TY 17W TO GRADUALLY
WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS TOWARD JAPAN, FALLING TO 65 KTS BY TAU 72. AS
THE STR TO THE EAST RECEDES, THERE WILL BE A BRIEF OPPORTUNITY FOR
INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW THAT WILL ALLOW THE INTENSITY TO REMAIN
STEADY BETWEEN TAU 36-48. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE
INTENSITY CONSENSUS. THE TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 72. MOST MEMBERS SHOW A BRIEF JOG TO THE
NORTHWEST AROUND TAU 36-48 AS THE STR BRIEFLY STRENGTHENS TO THE
NORTH OF 17W. BETWEEN TAU 48-72, ALL MEMBERS PORTRAY 17W RECURVING
AROUND THE STR. THE GFS TRACK IS THE MOST WESTERN OUTLIER, WHILE
ECMWF IS CLOSE TO AND SLIGHTLY INSIDE OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
BASED ON SPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE OF 360 NM BY TAU 72,
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS LOW FOR THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.
C. AFTER ROUNDING THE STR AXIS AROUND TAU 72, TY 17W IS FORECAST
TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD, ACCELERATE, AND BEGIN GRADUALLY
TRANSITIONING INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. THE TIMING OF THE TURN
AND THE FORWARD SPEED AFTER THE TURN VARY SIGNIFICANTLY AMONG THE
GUIDANCE MEMBERS, WITH ECMWF FASTER THAN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS
THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD. AS 17W APPROACHES 40 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE
AROUND TAU 96 AND ENCOUNTERS COOLER SSTS AND A PASSING MIDLATITUDE
TROUGH, IT WILL BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE GRADUAL
WEAKENING TREND CONTINUES THROUGHOUT THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AND, ALTHOUGH THE WIND FIELD IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND, THE INTENSITY IS
EXPECTED TO FALL TO 50 KTS BY THE END OF TAU 120. CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST TRACK REMAINS LOW DUE TO HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF
THE RECURVATURE AND THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE CYCLONE AS IT UNDERGOES
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: SHANSHAN - Typhoon

#73 Postby euro6208 » Mon Aug 06, 2018 4:31 am

TPPN11 PGTW 060902

A. TYPHOON 17W (SHANSHAN)

B. 06/0840Z

C. 28.09N

D. 146.00E

E. THREE/HMWRI8

F. T4.5/4.5/D0.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 11A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY OW
YIELDS AN E# AND DT (NO EYE ADJUSTMENT) OF 4.0. PT AGREES WITH
DT YIELDING A 4.0. WHILE MET YIELDS A 4.5. DBO MET.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
06/0536Z 27.52N 145.93E MMHS


LEMBKE

TXPQ28 KNES 060859
TCSWNP

A. 17W (SHANSHAN)

B. 06/0830Z

C. 28.1N

D. 146.0E

E. ONE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T4.0/4.5/W0.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...OW EYE SURROUNDED BY MG AND EMBEDDED IN OW RESULTS IN
DT=4.0 WITH NO EYE ADJUSTMENT. MET=4.5 AND PT=4.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...BOLL
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Re: WPAC: SHANSHAN - Typhoon

#74 Postby euro6208 » Mon Aug 06, 2018 4:34 am

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Re: WPAC: SHANSHAN - Typhoon

#75 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Aug 06, 2018 8:07 pm

Starting to become a little more bearable to look at.
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Re: WPAC: SHANSHAN - Typhoon

#76 Postby euro6208 » Mon Aug 06, 2018 8:26 pm

Image

WDPN31 PGTW 062100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 17W (SHANSHAN) WARNING NR 17//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 17W (SHANSHAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 215 NM NORTHEAST OF
CHICHI JIMA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED EIR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE CENTRAL
DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUED TO WARM AS THE FEEDER BANDS HAVE BECOME
LESS ORGANIZED. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
BASED ON A CLOUD-FILLED EYE IN THE EIR LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF
65 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF A WEAKENING TREND IN
THE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS INDICATES TY 17W IS STILL LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW VWS AND
WARM SSTS (28-29 CELSIUS), HOWEVER, A LOW HAS DEVELOPED DIRECTLY OVER
THE SYSTEM THAT HAS SUPPRESSED THE CONVECTION. ADDITIONALLY, DRY AIR
IS BEGINNING TO ADVECT FROM THE SOUTHWEST SIDE. THE CYCLONE IS
TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF AN EXTENSION OF THE STR TO THE
EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 17W WILL CONTINUE ON A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STR. AFTER TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL
ROUND THE STR AND RECURVE NORTHEASTWARD. THE DRY AIR AND SUBSIDING
EFFECT OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CAUSE 17W TO STEADILY WEAKEN AND
BY TAU 72, WILL BE REDUCED 45 KNOTS.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, TY 17W WILL ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AS IT
ENTERS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND BY TAU 96, WILL COMMENCE
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). BY TAU 120, TY SHANSHAN WILL
COMPLETE ETT AND BECOME A GALE-FORCE COLD-CORE LOW. CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST TRACK REMAINS LOW DUE TO HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE POINT OF
RECURVATURE AND THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE CYCLONE DURING ETT.//
NNNN
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mrbagyo
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Re: WPAC: SHANSHAN - Typhoon

#77 Postby mrbagyo » Tue Aug 07, 2018 2:56 am

90 knots

17W SHANSHAN 180807 0600 31.3N 143.9E WPAC 90 949
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Re: WPAC: SHANSHAN - Typhoon

#78 Postby euro6208 » Tue Aug 07, 2018 3:32 am

Intensifying more than forecast.

TPPN11 PGTW 070623

A. TYPHOON 17W (SHANSHAN)

B. 07/0600Z

C. 31.25N

D. 143.84E

E. ONE/HMWRI8

F. T5.0/5.0/D0.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 03A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY MG YIELDS
AN E# OF 4.5. ADDED 0.5 FOR EYE ADJUSTMENT TO YIELD A DT OF
5.0. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
07/0036Z 30.43N 144.23E GPMI


RICHARDSON
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Re: WPAC: SHANSHAN - Typhoon

#79 Postby euro6208 » Tue Aug 07, 2018 3:33 am

TXPQ28 KNES 070306
TCSWNP

A. 17W (SHANSHAN)

B. 07/0230Z

C. 30.8N

D. 144.1E

E. ONE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T5.0/5.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY LG EMBEDDED IN DG RESULTS IN DT=5.0
WITH A +0.5 EYE ADJUSTMENT. MET=4.5 AND PT=5.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...BOLL
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Re: WPAC: SHANSHAN - Typhoon

#80 Postby euro6208 » Tue Aug 07, 2018 3:37 am

Image
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