WPAC: SHANSHAN - Post-Tropical

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WPAC: SHANSHAN - Post-Tropical

#1 Postby doomhaMwx » Tue Jul 31, 2018 11:29 pm

94W INVEST 180731 1800 18.0N 157.0E WPAC 15 0

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Re: WPAC: Invest 94W

#2 Postby euro6208 » Wed Aug 01, 2018 5:10 am

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
18.2N 156.6E, APPROXIMATELY 740 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DEFINED AREA OF LOW LEVEL
TURNING PARTIALLY COVERED BY DEEPENING CONVECTION. WARM (28-29C)
SSTS, LOW (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND ADEQUATE DIVERGENCE
ALOFT DUE TO EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CREATE AN OVERALL FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN OVERALL
AGREEMENT THAT 94W WILL MERGE WITH 93W IN THE MID-LATE TAU RANGE AS
THE COMBINED SYSTEM DEVELOPS INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.
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Re: WPAC: Invest 94W

#3 Postby mrbagyo » Wed Aug 01, 2018 9:52 am

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Re: WPAC: Invest 94W

#4 Postby euro6208 » Wed Aug 01, 2018 8:11 pm

94W INVEST 180802 0000 18.9N 153.3E WPAC 20 1004

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Re: WPAC: Invest 94W

#5 Postby euro6208 » Wed Aug 01, 2018 8:19 pm

EURO very aggressive on this. Swallows up 93W and takes it to Japan. 962mb at landfall...

GFS in another camp...
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Re: WPAC: Invest 94W

#6 Postby euro6208 » Wed Aug 01, 2018 8:31 pm

Image

Latest satellite imagery shows 94W to have more convection near its
center than does 93W, although the latter is begging to see some
increasing convection. More notably is the widespread showers within
the monsoon flow SW of 94W. Currently, the ECMWF initializes best,
and thus the forecast leans more on the European guidance. The GFS
and ECMWF continue to push 2 slightly different narratives that
culminate in the merger of the 2 circulations well north of the
Marianas with a little Fujiwara interaction. The GFS, favoring 93W to
become the dominant system, hints at more wind for the Marianas;
while the ECMWF, favoring 94W, shows slightly less wind, but,
perhaps, more rain as monsoon moisture continues to be drawn
across the Marianas. Twenty-four hour pressure falls over the
Marianas indicate slow development and organization of the
circulation and broader monsoon trough. Such falls will likely
persist the next couple of days until the united circulations
begin to move north.
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Re: WPAC: Invest 94W

#7 Postby euro6208 » Wed Aug 01, 2018 10:53 pm

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 18.2N 156.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 153.5E, APPROXIMATELY
748 NM WEST OF WAKE ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH CLOUD LINES BECOMING MORE PRONOUNCED. THERE IS OVERALL BROAD
TURNING WITH FLARING CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHWEST. A
012016Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE EMPHASIZES THAT THE SYSTEM IS
BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED WITH FORMATIVE BANDING BEGINNING TO OCCUR.
THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH
LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GOOD POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW, AND VERY WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL
MODELS DIFFER WITH DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM. SOME MODELS, GFS,
DEPICT 93W MERGING WITH 94W BEFORE HEADING ON A WESTERLY TO
NORTHERLY TRACK. WHILE OTHER MODELS, SPECIFICALLY NAVGEM HAS JUST
94W DEVELOPING AND HEADING ON A NORTHWESTERLY TRACK. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
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Re: WPAC: Invest 94W

#8 Postby euro6208 » Thu Aug 02, 2018 3:27 am

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WTPN21 PGTW 020700
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18.5N 152.8E TO 20.6N 148.1E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 020630Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 18.6N 152.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 18.8N 153.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 152.0E, APPROXIMATELY
507 NM NORTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AB, GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED, CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT. A 020452Z SSMI 37GHZ IMAGE SHOWS FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING FROM THE NORTH QUADRANT INTO THE SOUTH QUADRANT.
THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH
LOW TO MODERATE (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD POLEWARD
AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-
30C) ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH STEADY
DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO
25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
030700Z.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: Invest 94W

#9 Postby euro6208 » Thu Aug 02, 2018 3:27 am

TPPN11 PGTW 020627

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 94W (W OF WAKE ISLAND)

B. 02/0600Z

C. 18.58N

D. 152.04E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T1.0/1.0 STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .25 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 1.0. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


LOWE
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Re: WPAC: Invest 94W

#10 Postby euro6208 » Thu Aug 02, 2018 3:30 am

Image

000
WWMY80 PGUM 020705
SPSMY

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
505 PM ChST Thu Aug 2 2018

GUZ001>004-030200-
Guam-Rota-Tinian-Saipan-
505 PM ChST Thu Aug 2 2018

...MONSOON SURGE WILL BRING WIND AND RAIN TO THE MARIANAS...

AT 400 PM...A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WAS CENTERED ABOUT 600 MILES
NORTHEAST OF GUAM NEAR LATITUDE 19 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 152
DEGREES EAST. A MONSOON SURGE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE IS
PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
MARIANAS.

AS THE DISTURBANCE DEVELOPS AND MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWEST...THE MONSOON
SURGE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. AS IT
DOES...SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 25 TO 35 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH IN HEAVY SHOWERS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
IN THE COASTAL WATERS...COMBINED SEAS ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO AS
HIGH AS 13 FEET.

IN ADDITION TO THE WINDS AND SEAS, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD LOCALLY
HEAVY SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. THROUGH SUNDAY...RAINFALL OF 3 TO 6 INCHES
IS POSSIBLE.

WHILE THIS ADVERSE WEATHER WILL NOT BE CAUSED DIRECTLY BY A TROPICAL
STORM...THE WEATHER ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WILL APPROACH
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AT TIMES. BE PREPARED FOR STRONG GUSTY
WINDS BY SECURING TARPS AND CANOPIES...AND BRINGING LIGHT OUTDOOR
OBJECTS INSIDE. IF YOU LIVE IN A FLOOD-PRONE LOCATION...PREPARE
FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF FLOODING. KEEP UP WITH THE LATEST FORECASTS
AND STATEMENTS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVIVE AND YOUR LOCAL
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICE.

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE
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Re: WPAC: Invest 94W

#11 Postby euro6208 » Thu Aug 02, 2018 3:42 am

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Re: WPAC: Invest 94W

#12 Postby euro6208 » Thu Aug 02, 2018 3:44 am

Image

What a year for Japan.
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Re: WPAC: 94W - Tropical Depression

#13 Postby doomhaMwx » Thu Aug 02, 2018 4:30 am

TD by JMA...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1002 HPA AT 18N 152E ALMOST STATIONARY.

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Re: WPAC: 94W - Tropical Depression

#14 Postby euro6208 » Thu Aug 02, 2018 4:36 am

TPPN11 PGTW 020931

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 94W (W OF WAKE ISLAND)

B. 02/0900Z

C. 18.70N

D. 151.48E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T1.0/1.0 STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .25 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 1.0. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
02/0452Z 18.65N 152.20E SSMI


LOWE
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Re: WPAC: 94W - Tropical Depression

#15 Postby euro6208 » Thu Aug 02, 2018 5:07 am

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Re: WPAC: 94W - Tropical Depression

#16 Postby euro6208 » Thu Aug 02, 2018 5:30 am

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Re: WPAC: 94W - Tropical Depression

#17 Postby euro6208 » Thu Aug 02, 2018 5:33 am

UKMET bullish...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 94W ANALYSED POSITION : 18.1N 152.9E



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 02.08.2018 18.1N 152.9E WEAK

12UTC 02.08.2018 19.0N 151.7E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 03.08.2018 18.9N 151.1E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 03.08.2018 20.2N 149.8E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 04.08.2018 22.0N 148.1E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 04.08.2018 22.9N 146.5E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 05.08.2018 23.8N 145.5E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 05.08.2018 25.1N 146.0E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 06.08.2018 27.5N 147.4E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 06.08.2018 31.1N 147.7E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 07.08.2018 33.0N 147.9E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 07.08.2018 35.5N 149.0E STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 08.08.2018 39.1N 148.8E STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
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Re: WPAC: 94W - Tropical Depression

#18 Postby doomhaMwx » Thu Aug 02, 2018 5:34 am

00Z ECMWF ensemble tracks...

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Re: WPAC: 94W - Tropical Depression

#19 Postby euro6208 » Thu Aug 02, 2018 5:44 am

Monsoon tail today probrably dumped 1 to 2 inch on Guam. Ground already saturated. More in the forecast especially for Saturday.


The GFS and ECMWF are converging on a solution that has 94W as the
dominant circulation, and keeps the monsoon tail over the Marianas
through Saturday. The latest GFS and ECMWF have nearly met in the
middle on winds in the tail, resulting in a forecast of 25-35 mph
southwest winds in the coastal waters on Saturday. Scattered
showers should become widespread on Saturday, with several inches
of rain possible. By Sunday, the monsoon band should be withdrawing
to the north as 94W tracks northwestward well away from the area.
A ridge should be edging in by Monday, bringing relatively dry
weather for a few days. It should be noted that while the Marianas
will not be directly affected by a tropical cyclone, Saturday`s
weather will approach tropical storm conditions at times. A Special
Weather Statement has been issued on this weekend`s weather and on
necessary precautions that should be taken.
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Re: WPAC: 94W - Tropical Depression

#20 Postby euro6208 » Thu Aug 02, 2018 7:29 am

TXPQ28 KNES 020933
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (94W)

B. 02/0830Z

C. 18.8N

D. 151.7E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T1.5/1.5/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/VIS/WINDSAT

H. REMARKS...THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR DATA. 0.3
CURVED BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 1.5. THE MET IS 1.0 AND THE PT IS
1.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

02/0738Z 18.7N 151.8E WINDSAT


...HOSLEY
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