WPAC: BEBINCA - Post-Tropical

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Re: WPAC: BEBINCA - Severe Tropical Storm

#81 Postby doomhaMwx » Thu Aug 16, 2018 10:17 am

Impressive

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Re: WPAC: BEBINCA - Tropical Storm

#82 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Aug 16, 2018 1:26 pm

16/1430 UTC 19.8N 106.8E T4.0/4.0 BEBINCA -- West Pacific
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Re: WPAC: BEBINCA - Tropical Storm

#83 Postby doomhaMwx » Thu Aug 16, 2018 5:10 pm

Already moved overland.

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Re: WPAC: BEBINCA - Tropical Storm

#84 Postby euro6208 » Thu Aug 16, 2018 6:10 pm

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WDPN33 PGTW 162100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 20W (BEBINCA) WARNING
NR 18//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 20W (BEBINCA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 82 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WEAKENING SYSTEM WITH STRONG
NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR BEGINNING TO DECOUPLE THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
FROM THE DEEP CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN ANALYSIS OF THE 3.9 MICRON AND
10.4 MICRON INFRARED IMAGERY, AS WELL AS SURFACE OBSERVATIONS IN THE
REGION. THE LAST MICROWAVE IMAGE WAS A 161434Z AMSU-B 89 GHZ PASS
WHICH PROVED OF LITTLE VALUE IN FIXING THE POSITION OF THE SYSTEM,
BUT DID HELP TO CONFIRM THAT THE OVERALL STRUCTURE IS STARTING TO
WEAKEN, WITH ONLY WEAK BANDING EVIDENT AND A SINGLE AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH OF THE ASSESSED LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
WAS ESTIMATED AT 55 KNOTS, BASED ON A DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF
T3.5 (55 KNOTS) FROM PGTW. THE AUTOMATED TECHNIQUES AND SATCON WERE
MUCH HIGHER (72 KNOTS IN THE CASE OF SATCON) AND ARE DEEMED
UNREALISTIC BASED ON THE OVERALL APPEARANCE OF THE SYSTEM IN THE
INFRARED. THE WIND RADII HAVE ALSO BEEN ADJUSTED SIGNIFICANTLY
SMALLER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED ON A 161434 ASCAT-B
BULLSEYE PASS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A VERY MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND STRONG
DIFFLUENT EQUATORWARD FLOW. AT THIS POINT, THE VWS IS STARTING TO
GET THE UPPER HAND, LEADING TO THE SLOW WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM. TS
20W IS TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 20W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD AND IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR THANH HOA, VIETNAM
WITHIN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. AFTER TAU 12, THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK
INLAND AND WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS
REGION OF VIETNAM AND LAOS. TS 20W WILL DISSIPATE BY TAU 36.
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: BEBINCA - Tropical Storm

#85 Postby euro6208 » Thu Aug 16, 2018 8:36 pm

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Rapidly intensified through landfall. Agencies severely underestimated this one. Disappointing.
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Re: WPAC: BEBINCA - Tropical Storm

#86 Postby euro6208 » Thu Aug 16, 2018 9:37 pm

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Re: WPAC: BEBINCA - Tropical Storm

#87 Postby euro6208 » Thu Aug 16, 2018 10:30 pm

WTPN33 PGTW 170300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 20W (BEBINCA) WARNING NR 019
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170000Z --- NEAR 19.4N 105.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.4N 105.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 19.1N 103.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 19.1N 101.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 19.2N 100.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
170300Z POSITION NEAR 19.3N 105.0E.
TROPICAL STORM 20W (BEBINCA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 99 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A WEAKENING SYSTEM WITH STRONG NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR
BEGINNING TO DECOUPLE THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION FROM THE MASS OF
DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE
BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY AS WELL AS SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS IN THE REGION. A 162234Z SSMIS 37 GHZ IMAGE SUPPORTS
THIS POSITION AND REVEALS THAT THE LLCC IS DISPLACED TO THE EASTERN
EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS ESTIMATED AT
50 KNOTS BASED ON EXPECTED WEAKENING AND THE LACK OF STRONG WINDS
FROM ANY LOCAL OBSERVATIONS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS MODERATE
TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND STRONG DIFFLUENT EQUATORWARD FLOW.
TS 20W IS OVERLAND TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH AND IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE WESTWARD UNTIL DISSIPATION BY TAU 36 DUE TO HIGH VWS AND
LAND INTERACTION. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT; THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 21W (RUMBIA) FINAL
WARNING ON THAT SYSTEM. REFER TO TYPHOON 22W (SOULIK) WARNINGS
(WTPN35 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
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