WPAC: BEBINCA - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

Location: 12.4°N 118.6°E
Maximum Winds: 15 kt

[euro6208]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
12.4N 118.6E, APPROXIMATELY 190 NM SOUTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF BROAD
LOW LEVEL TURNING WITH FLARING CONVECTION LOCATED PRIMARILY TO THE
SOUTH. A 032003Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS AN ELONGATED
CIRCULATION WITH DEEP BUT SMALL POCKETS OF CONVECTION LOCATED ON THE
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERY. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN
AN AREA OF GOOD EQUATORWARD DIVERGENCE, MODERATE TO HIGH (20-30
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (26-28
CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE SPLIT BETWEEN TWO POSSIBLE TRACKS FOR
THIS SYSTEM. MOST MODELS FAVOR A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK, MAKING
LANDFALL NEAR HONG KONG WHILE OTHER MODELS HAVE INVEST 96W MOVING
EAST-NORTHEAST, ACROSS THE PHILIPPINES, AND INTENSIFYING ON THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE PHILIPPINES BEFORE CONTINUING ON A EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD TRACK. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 12.4N 118.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 119.2E, APPROXIMATELY
165 NM SOUTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY A BROAD REGION OF LOW LEVEL TURNING WITH SOME DEEP
CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE WEST. STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT IS BEING
OFFSET BY THE AFOREMENTIONED MODERATE TO HIGH (15-25 KNOT) VWS. SSTS
REMAIN WARM (27-29C) IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AND WILL SUPPORT FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY KEEP ANY SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL IN THE LATE TERM. GFS SHOWS 96W CROSSING LUZON
INTO THE PHILIPPINE SEA AND DEVELOPING TOWARDS THE END OF THE MODEL
RUN, WHILE NAVGEM DEPICTS THE CIRCULATION MOVING NORTH AND REMAINING
IN THE SCS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO
20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 12.5N 119.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 118.1E, APPROXIMATELY
200 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 050214Z ASCAT PASS SHOW A BAND OF CONVECTION
SOUTH OF A FULLY EXPOSED BROAD REGION OF LOW LEVEL TURNING. MODERATE
(20-25KT) VWS DUE TO UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW IS LIMITING
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. SSTS REMAIN WARM (27-29C) IN THE SOUTH CHINA
SEA AND ARE CONDUCTIVE TO DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT 96W
WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPMENT AS IT TRACKS TOWARD CHINA, WITH GFS
DISSENTING AND DEVELOPING THE SYSTEM EAST OF THE PHILIPPINES AFTER
IT TRACKS OVER LUZON. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 12.9N 114.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 115.4E, APPROXIMATELY
330 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH
FLARING CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE AFOREMENTIONED VWS
IS STILL MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) BUT HAS DECREASED OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS. SSTS REMAIN WARM (27-29C) IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AND ARE
CONDUCTIVE TO DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT
THAT 96W WILL DEVELOP WHILE STILL OVER THE WATERS OF THE SOUTH CHINA
SEA IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LATE TERM SOLUTIONS GENERALLY FAVOR THE
SYSTEM MAKING LANDFALL IN CHINA, WITH GFS DISSENTING AND TAKING IT
OVER LUZON. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO
15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

[euro6208]

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THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 13.4N 115.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 114.6E, APPROXIMATELY
375NM WEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD, ILL-DEFINED, EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED OVER THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY. A 070210Z MHS 89GHZ IMAGE SHOWS WEAK, FRAGMENTED BANDING
BUT NO DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 070212Z ASCAT
IMAGE SHOWS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH 20-25 KNOT WESTERLIES
OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND 10-15 KNOT EASTERLIES OVER THE
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
CONVERGENT FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD, UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
POSITIONED OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A
SLOW NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS WITH
NAVGEM AND UKMET INDICATING STEADY INTENSIFICATION WHILE GFS AND
JGSM INDICATE SLOW INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

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JTWC upgrades to MEDIUM.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 16.0N 113.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 113.9E, APPROXIMATELY
425NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS BROAD TURNING WITH AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC) THAT IS BEGINNING TO SLOWLY CONSOLIDATE. A 080958Z
SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE SHOWS FRAGMENTED BANDING TRYING TO WRAP INTO THE
EXPOSED LLC WITH DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE WEST. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO STRONG
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-25 KTS) AND CONVERGENT FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
A BROAD, UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH POSITIONED OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE AT 28-29C. GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE A NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS
BUT DIFFER ON IF THE OVERALL BROAD CIRCULATION WILL CONSOLIDATE AND
INTENSIFY INTO A WEAK TROPICAL CYCLONE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.

[euro6208]

WTPN21 PGTW 081430
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.5N 113.5E TO 20.4N 113.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
081400Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N
113.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 16.5N 113.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 113.3E, APPROXIMATELY
460NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH BROAD BANDING ALONG THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST
QUADRANTS THAT IS BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO THE LLCC. A 081113Z SSMIS
91GHZ IMAGE INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME MORE ORGANIZED
WITH CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING NOW WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. TWO
SHIP OBSERVATIONS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM HAVE
REPORTED 25 KNOT WIND OBSERVATIONS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A
MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-
25 KTS) AND CONVERGENT FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD, UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH POSITIONED OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
REMAIN FAVORABLE AT 28-29C. GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN UNCHANGED AND
INDICATE A NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
DECREASES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 999 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
091430Z.//
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TPPN12 PGTW 091206

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 96W (SE OF HAINAN)

B. 09/1140Z

C. 17.96N

D. 111.46E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. N/A

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 63A/PBO PRLY ORGNZD LLCC/ANMTN. POSITION IS BASED
ON CENTROID.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


LEMBKE

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WTPN21 PGTW 091430
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT REISSUED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/081421Z AUG 18//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW
081430)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18.2N 113.1E TO 23.0N 113.7E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 091200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 18.8N 113.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT 12
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 16.8N 113.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 113.1E, APPROXIMATELY
220NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 091100Z 91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A
CONSOLIDATED THOUGH STILL ELONGATED LLC WITH CONVECTION CONFINED TO
THE WEST OF THE LLC, AND MAXIMUM WINDS DISPLACED ABOUT 100 NM FROM
THE CENTER. VWS IS LOW TO MODERATE (5-15 KTS), BUT INCREASES SHARPLY
TO THE SOUTH. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IN EASTERLY FLOW IS ALSO WEAK.
SSTS IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA REMAIN FAVORABLE AT 28-30C. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT THAT 96W WILL CONSOLIDATE OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH SOME SPREAD IN NEAR TERM TRACK SOLUTION
GENERALLY MOVING WITH A NORTHWARD COMPONENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
101430Z.//
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THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 18.8N 113.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 111.1E, APPROXIMATELY
225 NM SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH FLARING
CONVECTION OVER IT. A 091715Z SSMI 85GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE CONFIRMS
THE ELONGATION OF THE CIRCULATION AND DEPICTS THE MAJORITY OF THE
POCKETS OF CONVECTION LOCATED ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. A
091055Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH PRIMARILY
LIGHT WINDS, ALTHOUGH THERE ARE A FEW 20 KNOT WIND BARBS NEAR THE
CONVECTION. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF WEAK
DIVERGENCE ALOFT, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KNOTS), AND WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS BUT ARE DIVIDED AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THE SYSTEM WILL
CONSOLIDATE SLIGHTLY IN THE LATER TAUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.

[mrbagyo]

[euro6208]

WTPN21 PGTW 101430
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT REISSUED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/091421Z AUG 18//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT REISSUED (WTPN21
PGTW 090430)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 160 NM RADIUS OF 20.7N 112.3E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 101200Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 111.4E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 18.8N 113.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 111.4E, APPROXIMATELY
175NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 101048Z 91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A
BROAD REGION OF LOW LEVEL TURNING WITH TWO SEPARATE MASSES OF
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION, ONE LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE LLC AND
ONE TO THE NORTHWEST. VWS IN THE VICINITY OF 96W IS LOW-MODERATE (10-
20KTS) BUT INCREASES SHARPLY TO THE SOUTH. IN ADDITION, UL
DIVERGENCE HAS WEAKENED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SSTS REMAIN
FAVORABLY WARM (28-30C) IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. GLOBAL MODELS STILL
STRONGLY FAVOR DEVELOPMENT DESPITE THE NOW MARGINAL UL ENVIRONMENT.
HOWEVER, LAND INTERACTION AND A CHANGE IN STEERING FLOW DUE TO A
BUILDING STR HAVE STARTED TO INDUCE SOME UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK
SOLUTIONS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAKE SLOW PROGRESS TOWARDS THE
EAST BEFORE HEADING WESTWARD IN THE MID-LATE TAUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 997 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
111430Z.//
NNNN

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TPPN12 PGTW 110904

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 96W (NE OF HAINAN)

B. 11/0840Z

C. 22.01N

D. 110.90E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. N/A

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 70/PBO ANMTN. DVORAK VALUES UNAVAILABLE DUE TO LLCC
OVER LAND.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


LEMBKE

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[euro6208]

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WTPN21 PGTW 111430
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT CANCELLATION//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/101421Z AUG 18//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. REMARKS: THIS CANCELS REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 101430). THE AREA OF
CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 111.8E IS NOW
LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 111.1E, APPROXIMATELY 170NM WEST OF HONG KONG.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY AND A 111035Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE
REVEAL THAT THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME MORE DISORGANIZED AS IT HAS MOVED
FURTHER INLAND. THE CONVECTION REMAINS SCATTERED WITH NO DEFINED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-20 KTS). SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN
WARM (28-29C) IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT THE
SYSTEM REMAINING QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SOME
MODELS SHOWING THE SYSTEM MOVING BACK OVER WATER WHERE IT QUICKLY
DEVELOPS AND TRACKS TO THE WEST TOWARD HAINAN. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 997 MB. IN VIEW OF THE UNFAVORABLE
FORECAST FOR THIS SYSTEM, IT IS NO LONGER CONSIDERED SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS AND IS DOWNGRADED TO MEDIUM.//
NNNN