EPAC: JOHN - Post-Tropical

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 95E

#21 Postby storminabox » Sun Aug 05, 2018 11:26 am

This is taking its time to develop
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 95E

#22 Postby NotSparta » Sun Aug 05, 2018 11:32 am

Definitely more well defined circulation, but convective structure needs some work.

Image
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 95E

#23 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Aug 05, 2018 11:57 am

I'd probably declare it honestly.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 95E

#24 Postby NotSparta » Sun Aug 05, 2018 12:36 pm

Satellite images indicate that the low pressure area located about
400 miles southwest of Acapulco, Mexico, has become better defined,
and a tropical depression appears to be forming. If the current
development trend continues, advisories will likely be issued this
afternoon or evening on this system. The low is forecast to move
slowly northwestward off the southwest coast of Mexico during the
next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 95E

#25 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 05, 2018 1:21 pm

SAB says TD 12-E.

05/1745 UTC 14.2N 105.4W T2.0/2.0 95E -- East Pacifi
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 95E

#26 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 05, 2018 2:17 pm

Best Track upgrades to TWELVE-E.

EP, 12, 2018080518, , BEST, 0, 143N, 1055W, 30, 1006, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 150, 60, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, TWELVE, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 019, TRANSITIONED, epB52018 to ep122018,
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 95E

#27 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Aug 05, 2018 2:20 pm

* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP952018 08/05/18 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 40 49 59 79 98 108 108 100 85 73 58
V (KT) LAND 30 34 40 49 59 79 98 108 108 100 85 73 58
V (KT) LGEM 30 33 37 40 45 58 75 92 94 78 60 45 33
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 6 4 5 4 7 2 3 4 1 5 5 4 6
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 3 4 4 3 1 -1 2 4 2 2 -2
SHEAR DIR 348 360 25 54 90 310 105 106 117 58 55 337 313
SST (C) 29.9 30.0 30.2 30.3 30.3 30.7 29.9 28.2 26.3 23.1 23.5 21.8 20.8
POT. INT. (KT) 162 164 165 166 166 170 165 148 128 95 98 80 69
200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.5 -52.9 -53.3 -52.9 -52.3 -51.5 -51.0 -50.3 -50.3 -50.4 -50.4 -50.7
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.9 1.4 1.2 1.1 0.9
TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 6 6 7 7 7 7 5 4 2 0 0
700-500 MB RH 75 76 77 78 75 75 76 72 68 65 66 65 64
MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 14 16 19 22 28 33 34 34 29 28 24
850 MB ENV VOR -25 -19 -10 -5 9 29 50 69 66 79 76 80 87
200 MB DIV 114 120 127 123 110 59 62 16 21 2 18 5 -17
700-850 TADV -3 -4 -4 -1 -1 -1 0 13 -3 -7 2 -16 -5
LAND (KM) 500 482 471 465 455 431 453 349 373 429 512 658 848
LAT (DEG N) 14.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 105.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 8 11 13 14 14 13 12 11
HEAT CONTENT 37 34 32 31 31 31 16 8 2 0 0 0 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ 4
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 566 (MEAN=584)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.3 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 66.1

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3.
SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -2. 1. 7. 15. 22. 26. 28. 28. 26.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -4. -5. -4.
PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 6. 9. 14. 22. 29. 29. 24. 21. 15.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 7. 12. 24. 31. 25. 12. 2. -6. -12. -17.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 4. 10. 19. 29. 49. 68. 78. 78. 70. 55. 43. 28.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.3 105.5

** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952018 INVEST 08/05/18 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.83 9.8
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 5.7
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.5 19.6 to 1.4 0.78 8.6
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 33.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.30 2.6
D200 (10**7s-1) : 118.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.80 7.9
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.60 4.9
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.22 1.7
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 23.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.87 -5.9
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.9
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.45 0.5

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 51% is 4.0 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 37% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 8.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 6.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 4.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 46% is 7.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 55% is 9.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 44% is 9.2 times climatological mean ( 4.8%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 17.8% 50.6% 36.7% 25.3% 14.5% 45.7% 54.5% 44.0%
Logistic: 7.9% 37.4% 25.9% 15.1% 1.6% 49.0% 49.6% 18.2%
Bayesian: 7.0% 44.3% 57.3% 26.0% 0.9% 1.5% 3.3% 7.3%
Consensus: 10.9% 44.1% 40.0% 22.2% 5.7% 32.1% 35.8% 23.1%
DTOPS: 3.0% 24.0% 12.0% 4.0% 1.0% 32.0% 53.0% 18.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952018 INVEST 08/05/18 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX
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Re: EPAC: TWELVE-E - Tropical Depression

#28 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 05, 2018 3:40 pm

KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Depression Twelve-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122018
400 PM CDT Sun Aug 05 2018

The low pressure area located a few hundred miles south of the
southwest coast of Mexico has become better defined today and the
associated deep convection has enough organization to classify the
system as a tropical depression, the twelfth tropical cyclone of the
2018 eastern Pacific hurricane season. The initial intensity is
set at 30 kt, which is in agreement with Dvorak satellite intensity
estimates from both TAFB and SAB.

The initial motion estimate is northwestward at about 6 kt. The
track and intensity forecast for the depression is complicated due
to the close proximity of Tropical Storm Ileana to its
east-southeast. Somewhat surprisingly, however, the track guidance
is in relatively good agreement on a general northwestward motion
around the western portion of a mid-level ridge over northern
Mexico during the next several days. Since the depression is larger
than Ileana, most of the global models suggest that Ileana will move
around the northeastern portion of the new tropical cyclone's
circulation and weaken and dissipate. The NHC track forecast is
near the middle of the guidance envelope between the slower ECMWF
solution, and the faster GFS, HWRF, and HMON tracks.

The depression is currently over very warm SSTs, within low shear,
and a moist atmosphere. These factors suggest that the depression
will steadily strengthen and the intensity guidance is quite
aggressive in intensifying the system. The NHC forecast is slightly
more conservative during the first 36 h since the system is still
quite broad and lacks an inner core. Regardless, the NHC forecast
brings the system to hurricane strength within 36 h, and shows a
peak intensity of 90 kt in 3 days, which is in agreement with the
HFIP corrected consensus model. Cool waters and less favorable
thermodynamic conditions should lead to steady to rapid weakening
late in the forecast period.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/2100Z 14.6N 105.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 06/0600Z 15.2N 106.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 06/1800Z 16.0N 107.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 07/0600Z 16.9N 108.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 07/1800Z 17.9N 109.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 08/1800Z 20.5N 112.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 09/1800Z 23.2N 117.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 10/1800Z 25.5N 121.5W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: EPAC: TWELVE-E - Tropical Depression

#29 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sun Aug 05, 2018 7:22 pm

Future Hurricane JOHN.

It would have been cooler if HECTOR were given this name instead. But wow, what a season!
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Re: EPAC: TWELVE-E - Tropical Depression

#30 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 05, 2018 7:44 pm

Here is John.

EP, 12, 2018080600, , BEST, 0, 147N, 1060W, 35, 1004, TS
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Re: EPAC: TWELVE-E - Tropical Depression

#31 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Aug 05, 2018 7:48 pm

05/2345 UTC 14.6N 106.2W T2.5/2.5 12E -- East Pacific
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Re: EPAC: TWELVE-E - Tropical Depression

#32 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Aug 05, 2018 8:59 pm

* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* TWELVE EP122018 08/06/18 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 35 41 48 61 75 100 114 118 110 98 88 72 57
V (KT) LAND 35 41 48 61 75 100 114 118 110 98 88 72 57
V (KT) LGEM 35 39 44 50 58 74 90 101 98 83 65 52 39
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 4 4 3 2 7 12 10 9 4 3 1 7 7
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 2 3 4 7 2 1 0 4 2 -1 -1
SHEAR DIR 9 24 325 65 95 37 32 356 338 356 300 314 268
SST (C) 30.0 30.2 30.3 30.3 30.6 29.9 29.4 28.3 26.5 24.1 23.6 22.2 21.0
POT. INT. (KT) 164 166 167 166 170 163 159 148 129 104 99 84 71
200 MB T (C) -52.5 -53.1 -53.3 -52.9 -52.0 -51.8 -51.2 -51.4 -50.7 -51.0 -50.4 -51.1 -50.8
200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 1.1 0.9 1.1 0.6
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 6 4 3 1 0
700-500 MB RH 79 77 78 74 75 75 76 74 72 70 71 72 72
MODEL VTX (KT) 13 15 17 23 26 30 31 34 34 32 32 28 24
850 MB ENV VOR -27 -22 -13 2 18 30 41 32 30 21 27 82 71
200 MB DIV 128 142 129 104 110 104 67 20 45 15 22 6 24
700-850 TADV -2 -1 0 0 -2 -13 0 5 0 -2 -7 -1 -1
LAND (KM) 490 486 477 457 445 472 502 411 434 438 552 635 786
LAT (DEG N) 14.7 15.1 15.5 16.0 16.4 17.3 18.4 19.7 21.1 22.5 23.7 24.9 25.8
LONG(DEG W) 106.0 106.5 107.0 107.4 107.8 108.9 110.4 112.0 113.8 115.8 118.2 120.5 122.6
STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 11 10
HEAT CONTENT 35 33 32 31 32 26 16 9 3 0 0 0 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 5
T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 575 (MEAN=584)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.8 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 82.0

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3.
SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -1. 2. 8. 14. 20. 23. 24. 24. 22.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1.
PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 7. 12. 16. 16. 23. 27. 25. 25. 19. 14.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 2. 2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL 1. 4. 9. 15. 30. 39. 32. 15. 3. -7. -15. -22.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 6. 13. 26. 40. 65. 79. 83. 75. 63. 53. 37. 22.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 14.7 106.0

** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122018 TWELVE 08/06/18 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.78 13.2
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 8.1
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.2 19.6 to 1.4 0.85 13.4
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 32.6 1.8 to 106.7 0.29 3.6
D200 (10**7s-1) : 122.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.82 11.6
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.76 8.7
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 4.1
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 23.4 721.6 to -82.5 0.87 -8.4
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.2
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.59 1.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 6.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 68% is 5.4 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 57% is 6.7 times climatological mean ( 8.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 45% is 7.6 times climatological mean ( 6.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 7.4 times climatological mean ( 4.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 54% is 8.4 times climatological mean ( 6.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 59% is 9.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 39% is 8.1 times climatological mean ( 4.8%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 21.9% 67.8% 56.5% 45.4% 29.7% 54.4% 58.5% 39.0%
Logistic: 23.9% 74.2% 60.4% 48.9% 10.8% 71.0% 40.6% 10.6%
Bayesian: 4.5% 42.1% 50.7% 23.6% 0.6% 25.7% 24.2% 4.5%
Consensus: 16.8% 61.4% 55.9% 39.3% 13.7% 50.4% 41.1% 18.0%
DTOPS: 4.0% 59.0% 35.0% 13.0% 6.0% 41.0% 59.0% 16.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122018 TWELVE 08/06/18 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX
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Re: EPAC: JOHN - Tropical Storm

#33 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 05, 2018 9:51 pm

Tropical Storm John Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122018
900 PM MDT Sun Aug 05 2018

Convection associated with Tropical Depression Twelve-E has
continued to become better organized, although recent microwave
satellite data suggest the low-level center is elongated from
northwest to southeast. Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and
SAB have increased to 35 kt, and based on these the depression is
upgraded to Tropical Storm John.

The initial motion is 315/7. A westward-moving mid- to upper-level
trough over northern Mexico has weakened the subtropical ridge over
the northeastern Pacific, and the large-scale models are in good
agreement that John will move northwestward at an increasing
forward speed toward this weakness. A complicating factor is that
John may interact with Tropical Storm Ileana to the east. However,
John is much larger than Ileana, and the most likely impact of this
interaction is that John could move a little slower than currently
forecast. The new forecast track is a little to the north of the
previous track after 48 h, but is otherwise similar to the previous
forecast. The new track also lies just south of the cluster of
consensus models.

John is expected to be in an environment of very warm SSTs, low
shear, and a moist atmosphere through about 60 h. This environment
is quite favorable for rapid intensification (RI), as indicated by
high probabilities in the SHIPS RI index, and it is likely that RI
will begin as soon as the inner core of the storm becomes better
organized. The NHC forecast calls for the storm to become a
hurricane in 24-36 h and to reach a peak intensity of 95 kt in about
three days. After that, the forecast track takes John over rapidly
cooling sea surface temperatures, which should cause at least a
steady weakening. The intensity forecast is in best agreement with
the intensity consensus. It should be noted, however, that the
SHIPS and LGEM models both show more intensification than the
official forecast and make John a major hurricane in about three
days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0300Z 14.9N 106.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 06/1200Z 15.6N 107.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 07/0000Z 16.3N 107.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 07/1200Z 17.3N 108.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 08/0000Z 18.5N 110.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 09/0000Z 21.5N 113.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 10/0000Z 24.0N 118.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 11/0000Z 26.0N 122.0W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: EPAC: JOHN - Tropical Storm

#34 Postby Twisted-core » Sun Aug 05, 2018 11:23 pm

Image
https://imgur.com/mYtyQV6
looks a large consolidating monsoonal low with a very bright future.
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Re: EPAC: JOHN - Tropical Storm

#35 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Mon Aug 06, 2018 4:07 am

010
WTPZ42 KNHC 060859
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm John Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122018
300 AM MDT Mon Aug 06 2018

The convective pattern of John has become significantly better
organized during the past several hours, with a large central dense
overcast forming and cloud top temperatures to -85C. A 0706Z GPM
microwave pass shows the rapid development of an inner core since
the previous pass 6 hours ago, along with impressive curved banding
features. A blend of the satellite intensity estimates gave 45 kt
at 0600 UTC, but given the increase in organization since that time,
the advisory wind speed is set to 50 kt.

All systems are go for the rapid intensification of John in an
environment of very warm SSTs, high mid-level moisture and low wind
shear. With the inner core formation, John will likely strengthen
quickly until it reaches cooler waters after 48 hours. The various
rapid intensification aids are about as high as they get, roughly 60
to 90 percent depending on the threshold, increasing the confidence
in the forecast. Thus the new NHC wind speed prediction is raised
from the previous one, and calls for rapid intensification through
48 hours. It should be noted that even though the NHC forecast is
rather bullish, the corrected consensus aids, the SHIPS and LGEM
models all show an even higher peak intensity.

The GPM pass helped set the initial motion at 300/7 kt, somewhat to
the left of the previous estimate. Model guidance remains in fairly
good agreement that John should move northwestward soon at an
increasing forward speed toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge.
While some interaction with TS Ileana is anticipated, the much
larger John should dominate, leading to perhaps a temporary
slowdown. The latest NHC forecast is shifted to the west in the
first couple of days, following the trend of the model guidance, but
ends up very close to the previous forecast at day 5. The UKMET is
significantly farther west, perhaps due to it having the two
tropical cyclones analyzed with nearly the same size, and little
weight is placed on that model for the official forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0900Z 15.1N 107.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 06/1800Z 15.6N 108.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 07/0600Z 16.3N 109.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 07/1800Z 17.5N 110.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 08/0600Z 18.8N 111.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 09/0600Z 21.8N 115.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 10/0600Z 24.5N 119.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 11/0600Z 26.5N 124.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Blake
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Re: EPAC: JOHN - Tropical Storm

#36 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Aug 06, 2018 6:53 am

John certainly appears to have a good skeletal system to build on top of.

Image
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Re: EPAC: JOHN - Tropical Storm

#37 Postby Ntxw » Mon Aug 06, 2018 7:08 am

John looks angry.

Image
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Re: EPAC: JOHN - Tropical Storm

#38 Postby storminabox » Mon Aug 06, 2018 7:25 am

Ntxw wrote:John looks angry.

Image


The ceiling looks to be very high for this system.
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Re: EPAC: JOHN - Tropical Storm

#39 Postby hurricanes1234 » Mon Aug 06, 2018 7:41 am

Somehow I'm getting a Patricia/Rick feeling with this.
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Re: EPAC: JOHN - Tropical Storm

#40 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Aug 06, 2018 9:02 am

hurricanes1234 wrote:Somehow I'm getting a Patricia/Rick feeling with this.


This doesn't have much time but John is well on its way to making the most of it.
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