EPAC: ILEANA - Remnants

[Yellow Evan]

Pass is 10 hours old.

[Twisted-core]

:uarrow: Pass is 10 hours old.

Shows there was no strengthening over a long period when used with the last advisory.

leaves it to you brother. Picking is not my go.

[Yellow Evan]

035
WTPZ31 KNHC 070553
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ileana Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112018
100 AM CDT Tue Aug 07 2018

...ILEANA WEAKENS SOME MORE JUST OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.0N 106.0W
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM W OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Tecpan de Galeana to Cabo Corrientes Mexico

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ileana was
located near latitude 19.0 North, longitude 106.0 West. Ileana is
moving toward the northwest near 23 mph (37 km/h), and a turn toward
the west-northwest is expected later today.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. Ileana is forecast to weaken further due to the
influence of the much larger circulation of Hurricane John to the
southwest, and the small cyclone should dissipate later today.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely occuring within portions
of the warning area. However, tropical storm conditions will
rapidly diminish later this morning.

RAINFALL: Ileana is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
1 to 3 inches over coastal sections of the Mexican states of
Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco...with isolated maximum amounts
of 5 inches through Tuesday night. These rains may cause flash
flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Ileana will be affecting portions of
the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Ileana Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112018
300 AM MDT Tue Aug 07 2018

Infrared and microwave satellite imagery suggest that Ileana's
low-level circulation may have been disrupted by the Sierra
Madre mountain range when the cyclone passed just offshore of the
southwestern coast of Mexico and likely opened up into a wave
between 0000-0400 UTC. However, a strong burst of convection
containing a large area of cloud tops colder than -80 deg C has
redeveloped just northeast of the alleged center during the past
couple of hours, which could help regenerate a new low-level center.
Thus the system is still being considered to be a tropical cyclone
until more conclusive data to the contrary become available. The
initial intensity of 45 kt is based on a Dvorak satellite current
intensity estimate of T3.0/45 kt from TAFB.

The initial motion estimate is a faster and uncertain 295/20 kt.
Ileana or its remnants are forecast to maintain a fairly quick
west-northwestward motion around or within the northeastern and
northern portions of Hurricane John's outer circulation, with the
latter system currently located only about 200 nmi southwest of the
much smaller Ileana. The new NHC track forecast is similar to the
previous advisory track, and lies close to the consensus model TVCE.

The global and regional hurricane models remain in good agreement on
Ileana dissipating in less than 18 hours, due in large part from
strong vertical wind created by the northwesterly outflow associated
with nearby Hurricane John. Until dissipation occurs, however, only
slight weakening is expected due to the recent increase in deep
convection near and to the northeast of the alleged center, and also
as a result of Ileana's relatively fast forward speed of 20 kt.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0900Z 19.4N 106.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 07/1800Z 20.6N 109.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[cycloneye]

Remnants Of Ileana Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112018
900 AM MDT Tue Aug 07 2018

Early morning GOES-16 one-minute satellite imagery confirms that
the small circulation of Ileana has dissipated within the northern
portion of Hurricane John's larger circulation. As a result, this
is the final NHC advisory on Ileana. The remnants of the tropical
cyclone are likely producing an area of tropical-storm-force
winds that should gradually decrease in intensity as it rotates
around the northern and northwestern portion of John during the
next few hours.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1500Z 20.5N 109.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...REMNANTS
12H 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown