EPAC: ILEANA - Remnants

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Re: EPAC: ELEVEN-E - Tropical Depression

#21 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Aug 05, 2018 1:24 am

05/0545 UTC 13.0N 96.5W T1.5/1.5 11E -- East Pacific
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Re: EPAC: ELEVEN-E - Tropical Depression

#22 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Aug 05, 2018 2:04 am

* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* ELEVEN EP112018 08/05/18 06 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 31 32 34 38 43 49 55 58 61 63 64
V (KT) LAND 30 31 31 32 34 38 43 49 55 58 61 63 64
V (KT) LGEM 30 32 33 33 33 34 34 35 37 DIS DIS DIS DIS
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A

SHEAR (KT) 14 14 16 17 18 14 9 2 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 4 3 5 6 3 3 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 332 331 322 325 331 340 337 315 97 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 29.5 29.6 29.8 29.7 30.0 29.6 29.8 30.5 28.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 160 161 163 162 166 162 165 173 154 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.9 -53.5 -52.8 -53.4 -53.2 -52.5 -51.8 -51.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 6 7 7 7 7 8 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 70 70 71 75 77 80 80 75 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 13 -4 -14 -7 -9 9 20 47 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 66 63 90 130 136 152 108 56 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV 1 0 -2 -7 -10 -2 1 12 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 323 301 281 271 272 277 261 343 405 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 12.8 13.2 13.5 14.0 14.4 15.4 16.7 18.1 19.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 96.4 97.4 98.4 99.5 100.5 102.7 105.2 108.0 111.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 11 11 11 13 14 16 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 19 27 33 36 38 39 30 20 9 9999 9999 9999 9999

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 599 (MEAN=584)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.2 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 10.4

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3.
SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -2. 2. 8. 15. 23. 28. 32. 35. 35.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -2. -1.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5.
PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 19. 25. 28. 31. 33. 34.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.8 96.4

** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112018 ELEVEN 08/05/18 06 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.87 7.1
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.7 19.6 to 1.4 0.22 1.7
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 30.6 1.8 to 106.7 0.27 1.7
D200 (10**7s-1) : 97.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.69 4.7
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.35 2.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.22 1.2
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 43.6 721.6 to -82.5 0.84 -4.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.6
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.63 0.5

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 43% is 8.9 times climatological mean ( 4.8%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 7.4% 20.0% 19.4% 13.3% 0.0% 18.6% 21.9% 42.6%
Logistic: 2.6% 17.9% 8.4% 4.4% 0.9% 15.0% 14.2% 14.6%
Bayesian: 0.7% 5.9% 2.4% 0.4% 0.0% 2.6% 4.3% 20.2%
Consensus: 3.5% 14.6% 10.1% 6.0% 0.3% 12.1% 13.5% 25.8%
DTOPS: 3.0% 14.0% 6.0% 2.0% 0.0% 4.0% 8.0% 2.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112018 ELEVEN 08/05/18 06 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX
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Re: EPAC: ELEVEN-E - Tropical Depression

#23 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 05, 2018 5:01 am

Tropical Depression Eleven-E Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112018
400 AM CDT Sun Aug 05 2018

Convection associated with the depression has increased through the
early morning, but the system still appears to be sheared from the
north. A pair of ASCAT passes between 03Z and 04Z revealed that the
center of the depression is elongated and has reformed to the south,
closer to the convection. The maximum believable winds in the ASCAT
data were around 30 kt, and the initial intensity has been set at
that value.

Little change has been made to the track or intensity forecast,
however confidence is low. The global and regional dynamical models
all forecast that a disturbance to the west will develop later today
and quickly become the dominant cyclone. This should cause the
depression to dissipate as it becomes entangled in the other
system's larger circulation. However, there is little agreement
among the models as to when or where this will occur. On one hand,
the GFS continues to insist that the depression will dissipate later
this morning, while the UKMET shows two distinct cyclones through 96
hours. Further complicating matters, the close proximity of the two
cyclones is affecting the trackers used to obtain track and
intensity information from the dynamical models, and most of the
dynamical tracker output can not be considered representative,
especially at 48 h and beyond.

Assuming the depression persists for at least a couple more days,
the ECMWF and HWRF models appear to be the best compromise
solutions, with both showing the depression accelerating
northwestward between the disturbance to the west and a mid-level
ridge to the east, before dissipating in 48-72 h. The NHC track
forecast therefore leans most heavily on a blend of these models
and the previous forecast track. The intensity forecast is based
primarily on the statistical models, since the dynamical tracker
output appears to be unrepresentative of the actual forecasts.
Although the official forecast conservatively maintains the
depression for 72 h, the cyclone could dissipate much sooner than
currently indicated.

Based on the forecast, any tropical-storm-force winds are expected
to remain offshore the coast of Mexico. However, given the low
confidence in both the track and intensity of the depression,
interests along the southern and southwestern coast of Mexico should
monitor its progress in case the track shifts closer to the coast or
the cyclone strengthens and grows larger than forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0900Z 13.0N 96.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 05/1800Z 13.5N 98.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 06/0600Z 14.6N 100.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 06/1800Z 16.0N 103.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 07/0600Z 17.5N 105.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 08/0600Z 20.0N 111.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 09/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
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Re: EPAC: ELEVEN-E - Tropical Depression

#24 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 05, 2018 7:22 am

SAB up to 2.0.

05/1145 UTC 13.4N 96.7W T2.0/2.0 11E -- East Pacific
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Re: EPAC: ELEVEN-E - Tropical Depression

#25 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Aug 05, 2018 9:33 am

* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* ELEVEN EP112018 08/05/18 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 33 35 36 41 46 51 56 58 60 62 63
V (KT) LAND 30 32 33 35 36 41 46 51 56 58 60 62 63
V (KT) LGEM 30 32 33 33 33 34 35 36 36 DIS DIS DIS DIS
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A

SHEAR (KT) 15 16 20 19 17 9 13 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 5 1 3 5 7 5 4 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 320 314 313 319 324 2 312 1 346 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 29.4 29.7 29.8 30.0 30.0 30.9 30.8 30.5 27.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 159 162 164 166 167 173 173 172 139 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.5 -52.9 -53.5 -53.7 -52.1 -52.7 -50.7 -51.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 4 6 8 6 6 9 7 8 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 70 72 76 77 77 81 79 77 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR -4 -2 -2 -4 2 29 42 70 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 53 92 134 126 132 160 86 94 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV 3 0 -4 -5 -5 -8 8 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 274 242 214 197 182 159 177 363 334 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.8 14.2 14.9 15.5 16.9 18.4 19.7 20.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 96.8 97.7 98.7 99.8 101.0 103.8 106.3 109.1 112.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 12 13 14 15 14 15 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 29 41 42 38 37 34 26 17 5 9999 9999 9999 9999

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 588 (MEAN=584)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.7 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 13.7

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3.
SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -2. 1. 7. 14. 23. 28. 32. 35. 34.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. -3. -2.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6.
PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 6. 11. 16. 21. 26. 28. 30. 32. 33.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.3 96.8

** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112018 ELEVEN 08/05/18 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.89 7.8
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.2
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.4 19.6 to 1.4 0.12 1.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 37.4 1.8 to 106.7 0.34 2.2
D200 (10**7s-1) : 107.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.74 5.4
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.56 3.3
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.22 1.3
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 37.2 721.6 to -82.5 0.85 -4.3
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.6
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.61 0.5

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 8.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 29% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 43% is 8.9 times climatological mean ( 4.8%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 10.7% 25.1% 22.0% 14.9% 10.0% 21.3% 28.6% 42.7%
Logistic: 3.4% 25.5% 11.9% 6.8% 1.6% 24.8% 21.7% 13.3%
Bayesian: 0.6% 8.3% 5.9% 1.1% 0.0% 10.0% 12.5% 19.6%
Consensus: 4.9% 19.6% 13.3% 7.6% 3.9% 18.7% 21.0% 25.2%
DTOPS: 3.0% 28.0% 19.0% 14.0% 3.0% 3.0% 7.0% 22.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112018 ELEVEN 08/05/18 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX
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Re: EPAC: ELEVEN-E - Tropical Depression

#26 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 05, 2018 9:39 am

Tropical Depression Eleven-E Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112018
1000 AM CDT Sun Aug 05 2018

Latest visible satellite images indicate that the tropical cyclone
is gradually becoming better organized. The center is estimated to
be on the northern side of a small circular area of deep
convection, with a developing band of convection over the southern
semicircle of the circulation. The initial intensity is set at 30
kt in agreement with the latest Dvorak estimates from both TAFB and
SAB.

Since the center is still not easy to locate, the initial motion is
a rather uncertain 290/10 kt. The primary steering mechanisms for
the system are a mid-level ridge to the north and a developing
cyclone to the west. It is not clear just how much interaction
will occur between the two cyclones, and it is likely that some
of the model vortex tracks are not representative in the 2-3 day
time frame. The forecast track is somewhat north of the previous
one but near the southern side of the guidance envelope. This is
close to the latest HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach, HCCA, track.

The GFS and ECMWF global model predictions indicate that the
circulation to the west of Eleven-E will become dominant. In
fact, the GFS indicates that this circulation will absorb the
tropical cyclone within a day or so. The ECMWF indicates that this
absorption will occur several days later, and the official forecast
calls for dissipation in 3-4 days. If the western circulation does
not become the dominant system, then Eleven-E could strengthen more
than indicated here, as shown by some of the other guidance.

Interest along the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico
should monitor the progress of this system, given the uncertainties
in the forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/1500Z 13.5N 97.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 14.1N 98.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 06/1200Z 15.3N 100.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 07/0000Z 16.9N 103.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 07/1200Z 18.3N 106.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 08/1200Z 20.5N 112.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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Re: EPAC: ELEVEN-E - Tropical Depression

#27 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Aug 05, 2018 12:52 pm

Image

Ileana is here.
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Re: EPAC: ELEVEN-E - Tropical Depression

#28 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 05, 2018 1:20 pm

Yes Ileana.

05/1745 UTC 13.4N 97.4W T3.0/3.0 11E -- East Pacific
c
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Re: EPAC: ELEVEN-E - Tropical Depression

#29 Postby TheAustinMan » Sun Aug 05, 2018 1:43 pm

Eleven-E is cooking something quite impressively under the explosive cloud canopy this morning, and could make for quite the entertaining Fujiwhara interaction with 95E to its west. It's remarkable that it has not been resolved as a distinct tropical cyclone on the GFS. There's a mean curved band hidden under the clouds, and I think one could argue for a 40-50 kt current intensity this afternoon.

156 KB. Source: FNMOC
Image
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Re: EPAC: ELEVEN-E - Tropical Depression

#30 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 05, 2018 2:06 pm

So far no recon for this system but that could change if it tracks closer to Mexico and Baja.
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Re: EPAC: ELEVEN-E - Tropical Depression

#31 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 05, 2018 2:11 pm

We have Ileana.

EP, 11, 2018080518, , BEST, 0, 134N, 977W, 40, 1003, TS
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Re: EPAC: ELEVEN-E - Tropical Depression

#32 Postby NotSparta » Sun Aug 05, 2018 2:11 pm

Strong convection, convective pattern is also organizing

Image
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Re: EPAC: ILEANA - Tropical Storm

#33 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 05, 2018 3:35 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ileana Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112018
400 PM CDT Sun Aug 05 2018

...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM ILEANA...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.6N 98.1W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SSW OF PUERTO ESCONDIDO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests along the southern and southwestern coast of Mexico
should monitor the progress of Ileana.


Tropical Storm Ileana Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112018
400 PM CDT Sun Aug 05 2018

The cyclone has continued to become better organized today, with a
fairly symmetrical shape on geostationary imagery. Data from a
recent ASCAT overpass showed that the center was embedded about in
the middle of a small CDO-like feature. The scatterometer data
indicated maximum winds of 35-40 kt, and Dvorak classifications from
TAFB and SAB gave intensity estimates of 35 kt and 45 kt,
respectively. Blending these various estimates yields a current
intensity of about 40 kt, and the tropical cyclone is thus being
named. Since the system should be in a warm water and low shear
environment for the next couple of days, some additional
strengthening is forecast. However a strengthening cyclone is
situated not far to the west of Ileana. This larger system is
forecast by the ECMWF and GFS models to become the dominant cyclone
in a few days, and cause the tropical storm to dissipate near the
northern side of the larger circulation. That is the scenario shown
by the official intensity forecast.

There is more confidence in the center position than there was
earlier today, and the estimated initial motion is
west-northwestward or 285/9 kt. Over the next couple of days,
Ileana is likely to move between a mid-level ridge to its north and
northeast and the larger cyclonic circulation to its west and
southwest. The official track forecast is on the southern side of
the track guidance envelope. It is also very close to the latest
HCCA forecast track.

Interests along the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico
should monitor the progress of this system, given the uncertainties
in the forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/2100Z 13.6N 98.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 06/0600Z 14.5N 100.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 06/1800Z 16.2N 102.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 07/0600Z 17.9N 104.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 07/1800Z 19.2N 106.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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Re: EPAC: ILEANA - Tropical Storm

#34 Postby Ntxw » Sun Aug 05, 2018 4:26 pm

So former 96E (Ileanna now) beat the two other systems to its west. It has a vigorous llc and deep convection. If TD-12E wasn't in the way then this probably would've had a high ceiling
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Re: EPAC: ILEANA - Tropical Storm

#35 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 05, 2018 5:59 pm

Tropical Storm Ileana Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112018
540 PM CDT Sun Aug 05 2018

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the
coast of Mexico from Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes.

An intermediate advisory on Tropical Storm Ileana will be issued at
700 PM CDT (0000 UTC).

$$
Forecaster Berg
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Re: EPAC: ILEANA - Tropical Storm

#36 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 05, 2018 7:11 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ileana Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112018
700 PM CDT Sun Aug 05 2018

...ILEANA A LITTLE STRONGER...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.9N 98.9W
ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM SSE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes Mexico
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Re: EPAC: ILEANA - Tropical Storm

#37 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Aug 05, 2018 7:49 pm

05/2345 UTC 13.8N 98.4W T3.0/3.0 ILEANA -- East Pacific
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Re: EPAC: ILEANA - Tropical Storm

#38 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 05, 2018 7:51 pm

EP, 11, 2018080600, , BEST, 0, 139N, 987W, 45, 1001, TS
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Re: EPAC: ILEANA - Tropical Storm

#39 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Aug 05, 2018 8:57 pm

* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* ILEANA EP112018 08/06/18 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 45 51 56 60 64 69 73 72 70 68 67 65 64
V (KT) LAND 45 51 56 60 64 69 73 72 70 68 67 65 64
V (KT) LGEM 45 51 55 58 59 61 62 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

SHEAR (KT) 21 16 14 16 17 19 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 10 9 8 9 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 319 316 314 315 315 308 329 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 29.7 29.8 30.0 30.3 30.5 30.7 31.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 163 164 166 170 172 172 172 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.5 -53.5 -52.8 -52.0 -52.1 -51.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 8 9 7 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 74 76 79 79 80 79 78 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 13 2 3 11 32 39 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 152 151 136 142 149 99 76 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV -4 -1 -3 -10 -18 -4 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 245 223 202 166 103 100 196 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 13.9 14.6 15.3 16.3 17.2 18.6 19.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 98.7 99.9 101.0 102.1 103.3 105.5 107.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 11 13 14 15 14 12 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 40 37 37 35 31 25 25 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3
T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 595 (MEAN=584)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.1 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 28.5

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 7. 11. 16. 20. 22. 24. 23.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 5.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7.
PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 6. 7. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. 10. 10.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 3. 4. 9. 11. 9. 4. 1. -2. -4. -6.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 6. 11. 15. 19. 24. 28. 27. 25. 23. 22. 20. 19.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 13.9 98.7

** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112018 ILEANA 08/06/18 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.77 9.6
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 8.2
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.9 19.6 to 1.4 0.15 1.7
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 36.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.33 3.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 146.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.95 9.8
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.69 5.8
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.65 5.4
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 32.2 721.6 to -82.5 0.86 -6.1
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.9
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.56 0.7

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 6.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 59% is 4.7 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 39% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 8.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 6.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 4.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 46% is 7.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 48% is 8.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 45% is 9.5 times climatological mean ( 4.8%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 21.7% 59.2% 39.0% 29.5% 15.0% 45.5% 48.5% 45.4%
Logistic: 8.2% 32.6% 22.5% 13.8% 2.4% 21.0% 3.8% 5.6%
Bayesian: 1.6% 31.9% 36.1% 9.6% 0.0% 43.5% 18.4% 2.0%
Consensus: 10.5% 41.2% 32.5% 17.6% 5.8% 36.7% 23.6% 17.7%
DTOPS: 1.0% 45.0% 28.0% 13.0% 6.0% 31.0% 41.0% 21.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112018 ILEANA 08/06/18 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX
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Re: EPAC: ILEANA - Tropical Storm

#40 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 05, 2018 9:56 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ileana Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112018
1000 PM CDT Sun Aug 05 2018

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.3N 99.3W
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM SSE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has upgraded the Tropical Storm Watch from
Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes to a Tropical Storm Warning.



Tropical Storm Ileana Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112018
1000 PM CDT Sun Aug 05 2018

A new burst of deep convection developed near the low-level center
beginning around 2200 UTC. A second ASCAT pass earlier this
afternoon showed winds of 40-45 kt, while SATCON estimates from
UW-CIMSS were a little above 50 kt. Given these data, Ileana's
maximum winds are estimated to be 45 kt. The shear is forecast to
be on the order of 15 kt, which is not the most ideal environment
for strengthening, but the cyclone will also be moving over very
warm waters of 30-31 degrees Celsius and through a moisture-laden
environment. Nearly all of the intensity models indicate additional
strengthening, with some, such as the SHIPS and LGEM models,
bringing Ileana near or to hurricane strength in a day or so. On
the flip side, the GFS and ECMWF have Ileana opening up into a
trough on the northern side of Tropical Storm John in 36-48 hours.
Given the large spread in model scenarios, the updated NHC intensity
forecast is increased only a little from the previous advisory. A
48-hour forecast is still provided for continuity, but if the GFS
and ECMWF are right, the cyclone could dissipate by that time.

Ileana is moving a little faster toward the west-northwest with an
initial motion of 290/11 kt. Additional acceleration with a turn
toward the northwest is expected over the next day or so as the
cyclone moves between Tropical Storm John and large-scale ridging
over Mexico and the southern United States. The updated NHC track
forecast is essentially right along the projection from the previous
advisory, but it is a little faster to account for the speedier GFS,
ECMWF, and HCCA solutions.

The forecast tropical-storm-force wind radii in the new official
forecast now graze the coast of southwestern Mexico, and as a
result, the government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm
Warning from Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes. Even though
Ileana is forecast to dissipate after 48 hours, it is not out of
the question that the cyclone could last a little longer, and
interests on the southern Baja California peninsula should monitor
the progress of the storm.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0300Z 14.3N 99.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 06/1200Z 15.3N 101.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 07/0000Z 17.2N 103.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 07/1200Z 19.1N 106.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 08/0000Z 20.9N 108.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg
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