EPAC: ILEANA - Remnants

[cycloneye]

EP, 96, 2018080306, , BEST, 0, 110N, 895W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 96, 2018080318, , BEST, 0, 110N, 895W, 20, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS021, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 021,
EP, 96, 2018080400, , BEST, 0, 112N, 911W, 20, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS021, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 021,
EP, 96, 2018080406, , BEST, 0, 115N, 924W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS021, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 021,
EP, 96, 2018080412, , BEST, 0, 120N, 940W, 20, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 120, 50, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 021, SPAWNINVEST, ep742018 to ep962018,

[cycloneye]

* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP962018 08/04/18 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 23 24 25 29 34 40 44 45 47 52 52
V (KT) LAND 20 22 23 24 25 29 34 40 44 45 47 52 52
V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 21 21 22 23 24 25 25 24 25 27
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 16 16 15 12 11 17 20 20 21 19 11 19 24
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 3 5 1 5 3 0 -1 0 1 2
SHEAR DIR 354 337 315 314 294 278 258 210 191 177 129 73 18
SST (C) 28.8 29.1 29.5 29.7 29.7 30.1 30.2 30.6 29.3 28.3 28.7 29.0 28.5
POT. INT. (KT) 154 157 161 163 163 168 170 174 160 148 150 153 150
200 MB T (C) -54.1 -53.8 -53.3 -53.8 -54.0 -53.0 -53.3 -52.1 -51.8 -50.8 -51.0 -50.7 -51.4
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 4 7 8 6 5 9 6 10 6 6 6 8 7
700-500 MB RH 71 68 70 73 75 79 79 74 71 70 71 75 75
MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 11 0 10 8 5 5 39 72 62 48 15 -26 4
200 MB DIV 44 50 92 94 89 117 103 83 57 36 52 51 23
700-850 TADV 0 -1 -2 -1 1 -3 5 -2 6 5 5 -5 -18
LAND (KM) 335 379 324 288 221 140 60 138 334 511 734 726 528
LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.4 12.8 13.3 14.1 15.7 17.6 19.3 19.9 19.4 17.9 17.2 19.0
LONG(DEG W) 94.0 95.3 96.5 97.6 98.6 100.5 103.2 106.5 110.2 113.2 114.6 113.4 112.9
STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 12 12 12 14 17 18 16 13 7 7 12
HEAT CONTENT 11 17 20 30 38 39 28 33 13 8 13 22 10

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 4
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 677 (MEAN=584)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.8 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 7.1

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3.
SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -3. 0. 7. 16. 27. 34. 39. 42. 41.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. -1. -6. -11. -13. -13. -13.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -7. -6.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 5. 9. 14. 20. 24. 25. 27. 32. 32.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 12.0 94.0

** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962018 INVEST 08/04/18 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 142.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.93 999.0
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.8 19.6 to 1.4 0.32 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.2 1.8 to 106.7 0.20 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 73.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.56 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.64 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 34.2 721.6 to -82.5 0.85 999.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.4 62.3 to 0.0 0.93 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -1.9 0.37 999.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 1.9% 18.4% 9.2% 4.8% 1.3% 17.1% 37.3% 28.9%
Bayesian: 0.0% 3.4% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.4% 0.4% 0.5%
Consensus: 0.7% 7.2% 3.3% 1.7% 0.5% 5.8% 12.6% 9.8%
DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962018 INVEST 08/04/18 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX

[Extratropical94]

1555 UTC special TWO: 50/60

Updated: Satellite images indicate that a low pressure area has
formed a few hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, and
the system is already showing signs of organization. A tropical
depression could form over the next day or two while the system
moves westward or west-northwestward nearly parallel to the coast of
Mexico. Interests along the southern coast of Mexico should monitor
the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

[cycloneye]

I never thought this system would develop because of the system in front 95E but shows how favorable is EPac right now.

[cycloneye]

Satellite images indicate that a low pressure area located about 275
miles south-southeast of Puerto Angel, Mexico, has become
significantly better defined this morning, and a tropical depression
could be forming. If current trends continue, advisories could be
initiated this afternoon or evening on this system. The low is
forecast to move west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, relatively
close to Mexico, and interests along the southern coast of Mexico
should monitor the progress of this system. Heavy rainfall and
gusty winds could affect coastal regions of Guerrero northwestward
to Jalisco over the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

[Ntxw]

Already very impressive. Wonder if it will beat 95E to the punch and get named first

[galaxy401]

So which one will be Ileana, John, or Kristy? Has there ever been an occasion will there was 4 active systems in the EPAC basin (not counting the CPAC)?

[Yellow Evan]

This is classifiable and has somewhat of a comma look.

[Yellow Evan]

TXPZ22 KNES 041811
TCSENP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (96E)

B. 04/1745Z

C. 12.2N

D. 94.4W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM CHARACTERIZED BY 2/10 BANDING ON A LOG-10
SCALE. DT=1.0 PT=1.0 MET=1.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...FISHER

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP962018 08/04/18 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 30 32 36 40 45 48 47 45 47 45
V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 30 32 36 40 45 48 47 45 47 45
V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 30 31 32 33 34 34 33 31 30 29
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 11 12 12 12 12 15 15 14 24 24 18 25 30
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 4 4 3 2 0 2 -1 0 -3 2 2
SHEAR DIR 10 329 323 323 311 298 261 232 196 181 147 61 36
SST (C) 29.2 29.1 29.5 29.6 29.8 30.0 30.3 30.8 28.1 27.3 28.0 28.7 28.8
POT. INT. (KT) 157 156 160 161 163 167 171 175 149 139 144 152 153
200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.4 -53.8 -54.1 -53.6 -53.5 -53.2 -52.3 -51.3 -50.8 -50.6 -50.9 -51.4
200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 5 7 7 8 8 6 4 5 6 7
700-500 MB RH 68 68 72 73 75 80 81 75 69 66 69 73 77
MODEL VTX (KT) 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 0 8 20 7 0 3 36 76 79 80 74 24 6
200 MB DIV 50 79 82 80 94 120 112 54 82 1 22 -16 39
700-850 TADV 1 0 0 0 0 -5 6 -4 1 1 12 2 -3
LAND (KM) 362 360 316 266 215 156 69 164 319 606 849 997 814
LAT (DEG N) 12.2 12.5 12.9 13.5 14.1 15.5 17.5 19.3 20.3 20.0 18.8 16.8 17.2
LONG(DEG W) 94.6 95.7 96.7 97.6 98.4 100.4 103.2 106.8 111.3 115.1 117.4 117.0 114.9
STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 10 10 14 19 21 20 15 10 10 12
HEAT CONTENT 15 17 21 32 39 39 30 31 6 4 11 14 16

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 603 (MEAN=584)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.6 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 10.3

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3.
SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -2. 1. 7. 16. 25. 31. 35. 38. 37.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. -3. -8. -10. -11. -13.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -6. -5.
PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 7. 11. 15. 20. 23. 22. 20. 22. 20.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.2 94.6

** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962018 INVEST 08/04/18 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.89 7.5
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.1
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.7 19.6 to 1.4 0.43 3.4
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.8 1.8 to 106.7 0.22 1.4
D200 (10**7s-1) : 77.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.58 4.1
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.48 2.8
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 36.6 721.6 to -82.5 0.85 -4.2
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.4 62.3 to 0.0 0.93 0.6
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.64 0.6

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 8.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 22.5% 20.7% 0.0% 0.0% 18.8% 22.6% 0.0%
Logistic: 5.8% 33.4% 21.4% 12.8% 3.9% 35.8% 37.5% 23.3%
Bayesian: 0.7% 13.4% 5.2% 1.6% 0.2% 5.2% 2.7% 11.3%
Consensus: 2.2% 23.1% 15.8% 4.8% 1.3% 19.9% 20.9% 11.5%
DTOPS: 1.0% 4.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 3.0% 10.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962018 INVEST 08/04/18 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX

[cycloneye]

EP, 96, 2018080418, , BEST, 0, 122N, 946W, 25, 1008, LO

[cycloneye]

Best Track upgrades to Potential Tropical Cyclone.

EP, 11, 2018080418, , BEST, 0, 122N, 946W, 25, 1008, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 120, 50, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, ELEVEN, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 021, TRANSITIONED, epB62018 to ep112018,

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eleven-E Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112018
400 PM CDT Sat Aug 04 2018

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.4N 95.0W
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM SSE OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
Interests along the southern and southwestern coast of Mexico
should monitor the progress of the tropical depression.



Tropical Depression Eleven-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112018
400 PM CDT Sat Aug 04 2018

Satellite images indicate that the disturbance located over the far
eastern Pacific has become significantly better organized
throughout the day, with the formation of a well-defined low
pressure center and deep convection organized in a distinct curved
band. Based on these criteria, the system is being designated as a
tropical depression, and the initial intensity is set at 25 kt in
accordance with Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB.

Because the system has congealed so quickly, the initial motion is
uncertain but estimated to be 285/11 kt. The cyclone's future
motion will ultimately be dictated by a large mid-tropospheric
ridge to its north and its proximity to another disturbance located
about 450 n mi to the west. A west-northwestward motion at a
nearly constant speed is expected during the next 2-3 days due to
the ridge. After that time, the cyclone could begin to slingshot
around the northern side of the larger weather system to its west.
Many of the track models are not handling the depression very well;
the GFS barely depicts a surface low from the get-go, and the HWRF
does not appear to be accounting sufficiently for the possibility of
binary interaction. As a result, the NHC official track forecast
matches the consensus of the ECMWF and UKMET, the only two models
which appear to have a decent grasp on the situation.

Although the depression will be moving over very warm waters of
29-30 degrees Celsius over the next 2-3 days, the upper-level wind
environment may not be ideal due to possible outflow from the larger
disturbance to the west. As a result, the official intensity
forecast is not too aggressive and is essentially close to the ICON
intensity consensus. Even though the ECMWF and UKMET were used for
the track forecast, the two models disagree on the cyclone's
ultimate demise. The ECMWF has the system absorbed by the other
disturbance by day 4, while the UKMET keeps it distinct and holds it
just beyond the forecast period. As a compromise, the official
forecast shows dissipation or absorption by day 5, but the
confidence in this forecast is low.

Based on the forecast, tropical-storm-force winds are expected to
remain offshore the coast of Mexico. However, only a slight
deviation in the forecast track or an increase in size could bring
those winds closer to the coast, and interests along the southern
and southwestern coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of the
depression.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/2100Z 12.4N 95.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 05/0600Z 12.9N 96.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 05/1800Z 13.6N 98.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 06/0600Z 14.3N 100.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 06/1800Z 15.3N 102.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 07/1800Z 18.3N 107.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 08/1800Z 20.0N 114.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

[zeehag]

i guess mother nature coulda given me a worse present for my birthday..iliana should be 11e, ye think? as long as ultimate result is out to open ocean me pleased. geaux 11e.. may you be iliana. i approve of your tentative track at this point.

[cycloneye]

The ICON model is so far the only model that develops this but in a rapid way gets absorbed by the larger 95E.

[cycloneye]

Remains as TD.

EP, 11, 2018080500, , BEST, 0, 128N, 955W, 25, 1008, TD

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* ELEVEN EP112018 08/05/18 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 28 29 33 39 44 53 57 59 62 63
V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 28 29 33 39 44 53 57 59 62 63
V (KT) LGEM 25 27 28 29 29 30 30 31 32 33 34 DIS DIS
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A

SHEAR (KT) 10 11 11 16 18 14 10 12 2 2 9 N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 5 3 2 7 4 2 2 0 0 N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 340 331 331 305 313 338 339 278 329 95 85 N/A N/A
SST (C) 29.2 29.5 29.6 29.8 29.7 30.0 30.4 30.5 30.3 28.2 26.8 N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 157 160 161 163 162 166 171 173 170 148 134 N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.8 -54.0 -53.5 -52.8 -53.7 -52.5 -52.7 -51.3 -51.1 -50.4 N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 7 5 4 7 8 6 8 6 9 6 6 N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 68 71 71 72 76 79 80 76 71 64 62 N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 4 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 13 13 0 -9 -1 0 21 39 61 50 30 N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 62 73 71 86 124 123 148 64 58 0 6 N/A N/A
700-850 TADV 1 1 1 -1 -7 -8 0 13 2 -2 0 N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 331 285 263 242 239 246 222 230 396 398 595 N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 12.8 13.2 13.5 13.9 14.2 15.0 16.2 17.8 19.3 20.1 20.4 N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 95.5 96.5 97.4 98.3 99.3 101.3 103.7 106.4 109.3 112.4 115.6 N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 10 10 12 14 16 15 15 15 N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 19 24 31 38 37 39 37 26 16 7 3 9999 9999

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 599 (MEAN=584)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.7 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 8.3

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3.
SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -2. 1. 7. 16. 25. 31. 35. 38. 37.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6.
PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 3. 5. 8. 14. 19. 28. 32. 34. 37. 38.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.8 95.5

** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112018 ELEVEN 08/05/18 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 139.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.91 7.5
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.5 19.6 to 1.4 0.33 2.6
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.8 1.8 to 106.7 0.27 1.6
D200 (10**7s-1) : 83.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.61 4.2
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.37 2.1
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 37.2 721.6 to -82.5 0.85 -4.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.6
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.2 to -1.9 0.73 0.6

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 20.1% 19.5% 0.0% 0.0% 18.4% 22.4% 0.0%
Logistic: 1.2% 6.1% 3.0% 1.2% 0.2% 8.7% 24.3% 27.6%
Bayesian: 0.8% 5.4% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.4% 15.0%
Consensus: 0.7% 10.5% 7.9% 0.5% 0.1% 9.1% 15.7% 14.2%
DTOPS: 6.0% 52.0% 36.0% 27.0% 7.0% 3.0% 5.0% 22.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112018 ELEVEN 08/05/18 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX

[Yellow Evan]

TXPZ22 KNES 050028
TCSENP

A. 11E (NONAME)

B. 04/2345Z

C. 12.4N

D. 94.6W

E. FIVE/GOES-E

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/SSMIS

H. REMARKS...LARGER THAN 2/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 1.0. MET AND
PT ARE 1.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

04/2229Z 12.2N 94.4W SSMIS


...ZHU

[cycloneye]

Tropical Depression Eleven-E Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112018
1000 PM CDT Sat Aug 04 2018

After having a somewhat impressive satellite presentation earlier
today, the final GOES-16 visible images showed what appeared to be
the cyclone's low-level center popping out from the northwestern
edge of the convective canopy. Since that time, the remaining
convection south and east of the center has become less organized,
apparently due to enhanced wind shear associated with a linear band
of convection to the northwest of the cyclone.

This structural degradation of the system further complicates what
was already a low-confidence forecast due to the depression
interacting with the developing system located to its west. The 18Z
GFS doesn't have much of a representation of the depression, and it
is quickly lost in the model integration. The latest HWRF fields
show the vortex being absorbed into the circulation of the
disturbance to the west after 24 hours, and the HMON shows the
system dissipating in 2 to 3 days. On the other hand, the 12Z
runs of the ECMWF and UKMET maintain the depression into days 4 and
5, respectively. In an effort to maintain some continuity with the
previous forecast while acknowledging the current trends, the new
intensity forecast still shows some strengthening but at a slower
rate given that the upper-level winds appear to be winning out so
far over the warm SSTs. The official forecast carries the tropical
cyclone through 72 hours with dissipation shown at day 4, but it
would not be surprising if the cyclone dissipated much sooner than
indicated here.

The initial motion estimate is a somewhat more confident 295/10
given that the center was exposed right around 00Z. The track
forecast reasoning has not changed, as the small cyclone should be
steered west-northwestward by a large ridge to its north and the
aforementioned disturbance to the west, which the model guidance
suggests will strengthen quickly during the next couple of days.
The new NHC forecast is a bit to the right of the previous one and
is close to a blend of the ECMWF and UKMET models.

Based on the forecast, any tropical-storm-force winds are expected
to remain offshore the coast of Mexico. However, given the low
confidence in both the track and intensity of the depression,
interests along the southern and southwestern coast of Mexico should
monitor its progress in case the track shifts closer to the coast or
the cyclone strengthens and grows larger than forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0300Z 13.0N 95.9W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 05/1200Z 13.4N 97.3W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 06/0000Z 14.2N 99.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 06/1200Z 15.1N 101.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 07/0000Z 16.3N 103.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 08/0000Z 19.0N 109.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan

[Yellow Evan]

Becoming less defined. This likely won't earn a name.