WPAC: LEEPI - Post-Tropical

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WPAC: LEEPI - Post-Tropical

#1 Postby euro6208 » Wed Aug 08, 2018 6:14 am

97W INVEST 180808 0600 14.0N 152.8E WPAC 15 1005

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Last edited by euro6208 on Sat Aug 11, 2018 9:11 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 97W

#2 Postby euro6208 » Wed Aug 08, 2018 8:10 pm

TXPQ21 KNES 082130
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (97W)

B. 08/2030Z

C. 12.9N

D. 149.7E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR
DATA. SYSTEM IS CHARACTERIZED BY CIRCULAR, TIGHTLY DEFINED CLOUD LINES AND
A CENTER LESS THAN 1.25 DEGREES FROM A VERY SMALL COLD OVERCAST RESULTING
IN A DT OF 1.5 USING THE SHEAR PATTERN. MET AND PT ARE 1.0. FT IS BASED
ON MET BECAUSE CONVECTION HAS BEEN PULSING NEAR THE CENTER.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...TURK
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 97W

#3 Postby euro6208 » Thu Aug 09, 2018 8:06 pm

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
14.7N 148.6E, APPROXIMATELY 240 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION WITH FLARING CONVECTION OVER IT. A 091715Z SSMI 85GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE CONFIRMS THE ELONGATION OF THE CIRCULATION AND
DEPICTS THE MAJORITY OF THE POCKETS OF CONVECTION LOCATED ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY. A 091055Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS AN ELONGATED
CIRCULATION WITH PRIMARILY LIGHT WINDS, ALTHOUGH THERE ARE A FEW 20
KNOT WIND BARBS NEAR THE CONVECTION. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED IN AN AREA OF WEAK DIVERGENCE ALOFT, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(10-15 KNOTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30 CELSIUS).
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO THE
NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BUT ARE DIVIDED AS TO WHETHER
OR NOT THE SYSTEM WILL CONSOLIDATE SLIGHTLY IN THE LATER TAUS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 97W

#4 Postby euro6208 » Thu Aug 09, 2018 8:07 pm

20180809 2030 15.0 -148.1 Too Weak 97W 97W
20180809 1430 14.4 -148.8 T1.0/1.0 97W 97W
20180809 0830 13.8 -149.7 T1.0/1.0 97W 97W
20180809 0230 13.0 -149.6 T1.0/1.0 97W 97W

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 97W

#5 Postby euro6208 » Fri Aug 10, 2018 3:52 am

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 14.7N 148.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 146.8E, APPROXIMATELY
200 NM NORTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LLCC OBSCURED BY FLARING CONVECTION
BEGINNING TO TAKE ON SOME ROTATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE
REGION IS OVERALL FAVORABLE TO DEVELOPMENT, WITH LOW (5-10 KNOTS)
VWS, ADEQUATE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, AND WARM (28-29C) SSTS. GLOBAL
MODELS GENERALLY KEEP 97W AS A REGION OF SHARP TROUGHING WITH
ASSOCIATED ENHANCED WINDS ON A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK, POSSIBLY
INTERACTING WITH TS 18W OR ANOTHER SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE ECS
TOWARDS THE END OF THE MODEL RUN. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 97W

#6 Postby 1900hurricane » Fri Aug 10, 2018 4:27 pm

Time for classification.

Image

Image
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 97W

#7 Postby galaxy401 » Fri Aug 10, 2018 5:24 pm

Lol, that is definitely a 50-55 kt Tropical Storm.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 97W

#8 Postby Cunxi Huang » Fri Aug 10, 2018 5:33 pm

Image

Ok... :double:
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 97W

#9 Postby mrbagyo » Fri Aug 10, 2018 6:42 pm

As usual, agencies in WPAC are playing catch up again. :lol:

Image
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 97W

#10 Postby Cunxi Huang » Fri Aug 10, 2018 8:18 pm

Image

OSCAT shows only 30 kt winds...
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 97W

#11 Postby euro6208 » Fri Aug 10, 2018 8:20 pm

TXPQ21 KNES 102136
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (97W)

B. 10/2030Z

C. 17.9N

D. 145.0E

E. FIVE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T2.0/2.0/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/AMSR2/SSMIS

H. REMARKS...THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR
DATA. LOW LEVEL CLOUD LINES SEEN IN ANIMATED VISIBLE IMAGERY OUTSIDE
OF THE EXPANSIVE AREA OF COLD CLOUD TOPS THAT CONSTITUTE THE CENTRAL
FEATURE OF THE DISTURBANCE AND A LARGE BAND TO ITS EAST WERE AMBIGUOUS
AS TO THE EXISTENCE OF A CLOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. HOWEVER MICROWAVE
DATA AND CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES INDICATE AT LEAST A MID
LEVEL CIRCULATION IS PRESENT. 3/10 BANDING SEEN IN THE 2026Z SSMIS IMAGE
YIELDS A DT OF 2.0. PT AGREES WHILE MET IS 1.5 BASED ON RAPID DEVELOPMENT
OF THE CLOUD SYSTEM OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. FT IS BASED ON PT BECAUSE
BANDING FEATURES WERE NOT CLEAR CUT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

10/1625Z 17.7N 144.9E AMSR2
10/1829Z 17.7N 144.9E SSMIS


...TURK
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 97W

#12 Postby mrbagyo » Fri Aug 10, 2018 8:28 pm

25 knots when there are 30 knots wind barbs? Brilliant

19W NINETEEN 180811 0000 18.3N 144.4E WPAC 25 1004
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 97W

#13 Postby NotoSans » Fri Aug 10, 2018 9:25 pm

This is not a low pressure area but a tropical storm. Would the JMA just wake up?
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 97W

#14 Postby euro6208 » Fri Aug 10, 2018 9:47 pm

Image

19th TC of the season.

WDPN31 PGTW 110300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (NINETEEN)
WARNING NR 01//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 19W (NINETEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 203 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN, CNMI, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A COMPACT
SYSTEM THAT HAS PERSISTENTLY FLARED, AIDED BY LIMITED NORTHEASTWARD
OUTFLOW INTO A TUTT CELL TO THE NORTHEAST. THERE IS ALSO A WEAK AND
FRAGMENTED FORMATIVE BAND EVIDENT ALONG THE NORTHERN FLANK. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM A PARTLY EXPOSED LLC
DISCERNIBLE IN THE MSI LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS IS
BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW (T1.5)
AND RJTD (T0.5). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE TD IS IN A NARROW
AREA OF LOW (5-10 KNOT) VWS. WARM SSTS (30 CELSIUS) AND MINIMAL
OUTFLOW ARE PROVIDING AMPLE FUEL TO THE FLARING CONVECTION. THE
CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A LOW REFLECTION
OF THE STR TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE AND SETS THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FOR THIS SYSTEM.
B. TD 19W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
TOWARD IWO TO UNDER THE STR THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
AFOREMENTIONED MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL ENHANCE A SLIGHT
INTENSIFICATION OF UP TO 30 KNOTS IN THE NEAR TERM. AFTERWARD, AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE NARROW ZONE OF VWS IT WILL ENCOUNTER HIGH
(25-30 KNOT) VWS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG WESTERLY WIND FLOW INTO THE
TUTT CELL AND SHORTLY AFTERWARD, STRONG EASTERLY FLOW ALONG THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE STR. ADDITIONALLY, AS THE DISTANCE TO THE TUTT
CELL DECREASES DUE TO ITS ANTICIPATED WESTWARD PROPAGATION, AND THE
STORM MOTION OF THE TD, THE OUTFLOW WILL DIMINISH AND BE REPLACED BY
SUBSIDENCE. THESE, PLUS THE HIGH VWS WILL CAUSE THE SIGNIFICANT DECAY
OF TD 19W LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 48, POSSIBLY SOONER. THE
AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN BROAD AGREEMENT, HOWEVER, GIVEN
THE FORMATIVE NATURE OF THE CYCLONE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 97W

#15 Postby euro6208 » Fri Aug 10, 2018 10:28 pm

TPPN13 PGTW 110317

A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (NINETEEN)

B. 11/0250Z

C. 18.77N

D. 144.09E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .35 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 2.0. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
10/2139Z 18.03N 144.57E SSMS


LOWE
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 97W

#16 Postby euro6208 » Fri Aug 10, 2018 10:29 pm

TXPQ21 KNES 110309
TCSWNP

A. 19W (NONAME)

B. 11/0230Z

C. 18.9N

D. 144.0E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T2.5/2.5/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR
DATA. CURVED VIS BANDING WRAPS .4 FOR DT=2.5. MET=1.5 PT=2.0. FT IS
BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...VELASCO
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 97W

#17 Postby euro6208 » Fri Aug 10, 2018 11:18 pm

Looks like this will be short lived. The models has this getting absorbed by another system in the P.I sea.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 97W

#18 Postby mrbagyo » Sat Aug 11, 2018 3:59 am

Now a TD per JMA.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 97W

#19 Postby mrbagyo » Sat Aug 11, 2018 4:49 am

Comma MW Signature

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 97W

#20 Postby mrbagyo » Sat Aug 11, 2018 6:00 am

Up to 30 knots.

19W NINETEEN 180811 0600 19.4N 143.7E WPAC 30 1000
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