WPAC: LEEPI - Post-Tropical

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Re: WPAC: LEEPI - Tropical Storm

#61 Postby doomhaMwx » Tue Aug 14, 2018 12:45 am

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STS 1815 (Leepi)
Issued at 03:35 UTC, 14 August 2018

<Analysis at 03 UTC, 14 August>

Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N29°35' (29.6°)
E135°35' (135.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 25 km/h (13 kt)
Central pressure 996 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area E 280 km (150 NM)
W 170 km (90 NM)
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Re: WPAC: LEEPI - Tropical Storm

#62 Postby euro6208 » Tue Aug 14, 2018 1:07 am

TPPN13 PGTW 140247

A. TROPICAL STORM 19W (LEEPI)

B. 14/0230Z

C. 29.85N

D. 135.38E

E. THREE/HMWRI8

F. T4.0/4.0/D0.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 25A/PBO SM EMBD CNTR/ANMTN. LLCC EMBEDDED IN DG
YIELDS A DT OF 4.0. MET AND PT YIELD A 4.5. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
13/2126Z 28.78N 136.70E SSMS
13/2238Z 28.95N 136.40E MMHS
13/2316Z 29.15N 136.23E GPMI


RICHARDSON
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Re: WPAC: LEEPI - Tropical Storm

#63 Postby euro6208 » Tue Aug 14, 2018 4:26 am

Image

WDPN31 PGTW 140900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 19W (LEEPI) WARNING NR
14//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 19W (LEEPI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 274 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF IWAKUNI, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY WHICH
DEPICTS A SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING
WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THIS POSITION
IS SUPPORTED BY RJTD RADAR POSITION FIXES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 55 KNOTS, HEDGED BETWEEN THE RJTD AND PGTW DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS) AND T4.0 (65 KNOTS), RESPECTIVELY.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND MARGINAL POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TS
19W IS BEING STEERED BY A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN, HOWEVER, THE WIDELY SPLIT
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SLIGHTLY FAVORS A RE-CURVATURE SCENARIO THIS
MOST RECENT CYCLE.
B. TS 19W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH
TAU 48. AROUND TAU 48, A PASSING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL BREAK THE
STR AND INCREASE THE VWS. THE MODEL GUIDANCE VARIES SIGNIFICANTLY ON
HOW THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IMPACTS THE TRACK OF THE CYCLONE WITH
SEVERAL MEMBERS HINTING AT A RECURVE TO THE NORTHEAST WHILE OTHERS
CONTINUE THE NORTHWEST TRACK (ECMWF), AND STILL OTHERS TURN THE
CYCLONE TO THE SOUTHWEST AS IT APPEARS TO INTERACT WITH THE
CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH 98W (HWRF). THE JTWC FORECAST CONTINUES
TO FAVOR A SLOW DRIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST BEGINNING AROUND TAU 48.
THROUGHOUT THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST, THE INTENSITY FALLS
STEADILY FROM INCREASED VWS AND LAND INTERACTION AS THE CYCLONE
PASSES OVER KYUSHU.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, TS 19W IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHWEST
AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 96. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS BIFURCATED BETWEEN
THE RE-CURVE AND SOUTHWESTERLY TRACK SCENARIOS DISCUSSED IN
PARAGRAPH 3.B. DUE TO THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE IN
THE LATTER PORTION OF THE FORECAST, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: LEEPI - Tropical Storm

#64 Postby euro6208 » Tue Aug 14, 2018 4:28 am

Interesting that JTWC continues to go up...4.5...while SSD remains at 3.5.

TPPN13 PGTW 140907

A. TROPICAL STORM 19W (LEEPI)

B. 14/0840Z

C. 30.73N

D. 134.37E

E. THREE/HMWRI8

F. T4.5/4.5/D1.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 25A/PBO SM EMBD CNTR/ANMTN. LLCC EMBEDDED IN LG
YIELDS A DT OF 4.5. MET/PT 4.5. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
14/0352Z 30.12N 135.38E AMS2
14/0507Z 30.28N 135.12E SSMI
14/0648Z 30.48N 134.72E SSMS


DAVIS

TXPQ21 KNES 140347
TCSWNP

A. 19W (LEEPI)

B. 14/0230Z

C. 29.9N

D. 135.5E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T3.5/3.5/W0.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/GMI/AMSU

H. REMARKS...THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR DATA. DT
OF 3.5 IS BASED ON 0.8 CURVED BANDING, AS CONFIRMED IN RECENT MICROWAVE
IMAGERY. MET AND PT ARE 3.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

13/2316Z 29.3N 136.2E GMI
14/0041Z 29.5N 136.0E AMSU
14/0120Z 29.7N 135.8E AMSU


...RAMIREZ
Last edited by euro6208 on Tue Aug 14, 2018 4:29 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: WPAC: LEEPI - Tropical Storm

#65 Postby euro6208 » Tue Aug 14, 2018 4:29 am

Image
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Re: WPAC: LEEPI - Tropical Storm

#66 Postby euro6208 » Tue Aug 14, 2018 4:32 am

Image
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Re: WPAC: LEEPI - Tropical Storm

#67 Postby mrbagyo » Tue Aug 14, 2018 12:20 pm

Looks like Leepi has made landfall.

Image
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Re: WPAC: LEEPI - Tropical Storm

#68 Postby euro6208 » Tue Aug 14, 2018 10:57 pm

Image

WDPN31 PGTW 150300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 19W (LEEPI) WARNING NR
17//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 19W (LEEPI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 41 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 18
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED, COMPACT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH
DIMINISHED CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTH. PASSAGE OVER KYUSHU IN
THE LAST 6 HOURS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENED 19W AND DISRUPTED ITS
ORGANIZATION. THIS POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON THE
FULLY EXPOSED LLCC IN THE MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS, HEDGED BETWEEN THE RJTD
AND PGTW DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.0 (30 KNOTS) AND T3.5 (55
KNOTS), RESPECTIVELY. OBSERVATIONS FROM SITES 40-60 NM AWAY SHOWED
PEAK WINDS OF 25-30 KTS AND PRESSURES AROUND 1005 MB WITHIN THE LAST
6 HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT DUE
TO LIMITED DIVERGENCE ALOFT, LAND INTERACTION WITH KYUSHU OVER THE
LAST 6 HOURS, AND MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
TS 19W IS BEING STEERED BY AN EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE NORTHEAST, WHICH IS ALSO CAUSING CONVERGENCE
ALOFT.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. ALL MODELS IN THE MOST RECENT RUN NOW PROJECT A RECURVE
SCENARIO INTO THE SEA OF JAPAN, AND THE FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN
MOVED SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE EAST TO REFLECT THE RECURVE SCENARIO.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN THE FORECAST TRACK.
B. TS 19W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD,
BRUSHING THE KOREAN PENINSULA AND FURTHER WEAKENING FROM INCREASED
SHEAR AND LAND INTERACTION WITH KOREA. ALL NUMERICAL MODELS
CONSIDERED NOW SHOW A RECURVE SCENARIO, THOUGH ALONG-TRACK STORM
MOTION VARIES SIGNIFICANTLY BETWEEN MODELS. THOUGH 19W IS STILL TO
THE SOUTH OF THE UPPER-LEVEL STR, MODELS DEPICT THE LOWER-LEVEL STR
WHICH WILL BE TO THE EAST BEING ERODED BY A DIGGING MIDLATITUDE
TROUGH THAT ARRIVES IN THE AREA AROUND TAU 24, ENABLING 19W TO
RECURVE AND THEN ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD. DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL
BRIEFLY INCREASE FOR 19W AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE SEA OF JAPAN,
WHICH WILL HELP IT MAINTAIN A 30 KT INTENSITY BETWEEN TAUS 12-24
DESPITE INCREASING VWS AND COOLER SSTS BELOW 26C. AFTER TAU 24, 19W
WILL BE ABSORBED BY THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH AND ACCELERATE TO THE
NORTHEAST, DISINTEGRATING BUT ALSO LOSING ITS TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE.
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST TRACK IS HIGH, THEREFORE CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS LOW.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: LEEPI - Tropical Depression

#69 Postby doomhaMwx » Wed Aug 15, 2018 3:57 am

Image
Image
TD
Issued at 07:00 UTC, 15 August 2018

<Analysis at 06 UTC, 15 August>

Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N35°00' (35.0°)
E129°00' (129.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 1004 hPa
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Re: WPAC: LEEPI - Tropical Storm

#70 Postby euro6208 » Wed Aug 15, 2018 5:16 am

Image

WDPN31 PGTW 150900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 19W (LEEPI) WARNING NR
18//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (LEEPI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 19 NM
SOUTHEAST OF BUSAN, SOUTH KOREA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE BASED ON ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY WHICH DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED, LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
WITH LIMITED CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTH. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS ASSESSED AT 30 KNOTS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY FIX INTENSITIES OF
T2.0 TO T3.5 (30-55 KNOTS). A BUOY OBSERVATION FROM ABOUT 35 NM TO
THE NORTHEAST REPORTED A 27 KT OBSERVATION AT 150700Z. THE
ENVIRONMENT IS UNFAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION WITH LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 5-10 KTS BEING OFFSET BY WEAK UPPER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS APPROXIMATELY 29 CELSIUS. TD
19W IS TRACKING POLEWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TD 19W WILL FINISH ROUNDING THE STR AXIS AND BEGIN TRACKING
NORTHEASTWARD IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS IT GETS PICKED UP BY AN
APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE. TD 19W SHOULD BE ABSORBED INTO THE
MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE BY TAU 36. MOST NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
DEPICTS
A SIMILAR TRACK, HOWEVER, GALWEM HAS REVERTED BACK TO A STRAIGHT
TRACK INTO KOREA BEFORE DISSIPATING. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT ALONG-
TRACK SPEED DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS. THE CYCLONE WILL
STEADILY WEAKEN AS VWS INCREASES WITH THE APPROACH OF THE MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH. CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK IS LOW DUE TO HIGH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE GUIDANCE.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: LEEPI - Tropical Storm

#71 Postby euro6208 » Wed Aug 15, 2018 5:38 pm

WTPN31 PGTW 152100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (LEEPI) WARNING NR 020
05 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151800Z --- NEAR 36.5N 130.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 040 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
REPEAT POSIT: 36.5N 130.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 37.3N 133.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 38.2N 139.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
152100Z POSITION NEAR 36.7N 130.9E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (LEEPI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 97 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PUSAN, SOUTH KOREA, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON
THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM
WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z IS 9 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 10E (HECTOR) FINAL WARNING (WTPN32 PGTW). REFER TO TROPICAL
STORM 20W (BEBINCA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 21W (RUMBIA) WARNINGS (WTPN34 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W (TWENTYTWO)
WARNINGS (WTPN35 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
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