CPAC: LANE - Post-Tropical

[Twisted-core]

https://www.weathernerds.org/tc_guidance/


Both major models ens are weighted south atm.

[1900hurricane]

It is worth noting however that many of the stronger solutions end up on the northern edge of the spread.

[cycloneye]

We have TS LANE.

EP, 14, 2018081512, , BEST, 0, 107N, 1230W, 35, 1006, TS

[Yellow Evan]

15/1200 UTC 10.4N 123.0W T2.0/2.0 14E -- East Pacific

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Lane Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142018
800 AM PDT Wed Aug 15 2018

The latest satellite imagery shows that the cyclone continues to
become better organized with a growing central dense overcast along
with ample banding features. Dvorak estimates range from 30 to 40
kt, and with the increased organization since the last advisory,
the initial wind speed is set to 35 kt.

Further intensification is likely over the next few days as Lane
encounters a conducive large-scale environment consisting of low
shear and fairly warm waters. Rapid strengthening is a distinct
possibility after the cyclone forms an inner core, which could take
a day or so given that there is still some drier air in the eastern
semicircle. The DTOPS rapid intensification index indicates a high
probability of significant strengthening over the next 3 days, with
over a 70 percent chance of a 65-kt increase during that time.
Given that some of the guidance (FSSE and HMON) are even higher than
that, this seems like a reasonable forecast and is indicated below.
The new NHC forecast is raised from the last advisory, and is close
to a blend of the previous forecast and the corrected-consensus
guidance. Continuity prevents a higher forecast, but Lane seems
destined to eventually become a category-4 hurricane like Hector.

The storm continues to move just south of due west at about 12 kt.
The subtropical ridge to the north of Lane is forecast to weaken
slightly over the next few days, which will likely steer the cyclone
to the west or west-northwest throughout the period. There is very
little spread in the guidance, with the most notable change since
the last advisory being a small shift to the southwest. The
latest official track forecast is adjusted in that direction, and is
not too far from the latest model consensus. Given the tightly
packed guidance, this appears to be a high-confidence forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/1500Z 10.7N 123.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 16/0000Z 10.6N 125.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 16/1200Z 10.7N 127.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 17/0000Z 11.0N 130.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 17/1200Z 11.5N 132.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 18/1200Z 12.6N 137.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 19/1200Z 13.9N 142.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
120H 20/1200Z 15.0N 146.5W 105 KT 120 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

[NotSparta]

Continuity prevents a higher forecast, but Lane seems
destined to eventually become a category-4 hurricane like Hector.

[DioBrando]

Possible historical anomalies to this storm? This storm carving out a literal long lane for herself.

[Ntxw]

Path and behavior is similar to Hector it seems. So could be a Hector redux

[Hypercane_Kyle]

This one has a higher chance of bringing impacts to Hawaii than Hector did, IMO.

[hurricanes1234]

He had better stay in his lane and avoid any unfavourable conditions, as well as Hawaii!

[DioBrando]

Path and behavior is similar to Hector it seems. So could be a Hector redux

do you think this can cross the dateline like hector or will she be cut short?

[DioBrando]

This one has a higher chance of bringing impacts to Hawaii than Hector did, IMO.

iselle 2018 version?
hopefully not! Let's hope she stays well south.

[Ntxw]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 15 AUG 2018 Time : 153000 UTC
Lat : 10:41:47 N Lon : 123:42:15 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.9 /1004.4mb/ 43.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.9 3.1 3.7

Center Temp : -70.3C Cloud Region Temp : -68.9C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

[DioBrando]

Do you think this storm has a shot of becoming a major?

[ncapps]

The GFS seems a bit wonky to me in regards to system speed and strength. Is anyone treating it as an outlier? The Euro seems to be a bit more believable to me at this point.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

The GFS seems a bit wonky to me in regards to system speed and strength. Is anyone treating it as an outlier? The Euro seems to be a bit more believable to me at this point.

Both don't seem a good handle on the system: GFS has a wonky path, the ECMWF is too weak.

[Kingarabian]

This one has a higher chance of bringing impacts to Hawaii than Hector did, IMO.

So far It's a larger storm and modeled out to be just as strong as Hector, so if there were to be a trough breaking the Sub Tropical Ridge, then it'll likely move more poleward than Hector.

That being said, most EPS and GEFS members keep this south of Hawaii. But it's still 200 hours out from threatening Hawaii.

[Kingarabian]

While outflow to the north still looks restricted, there's very well established outflow in the southern quads:



EPAC/CPAC mansoonal storms are always a treat.

[Kingarabian]

Do you think this storm has a shot of becoming a major?

Very good chance it becomes one.

[DioBrando]

Do you think this storm has a shot of becoming a major?

Very good chance it becomes one.

I thibk so too tbh

peak prediction?