CPAC: LANE - Post-Tropical

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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#861 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Aug 21, 2018 1:07 pm

Well at the very least we will get some good data to ingest into future forecast model update/improvements as the interaction between a Hurricane and turbulent flow( the Lee troughing) is still not very well understood or modeled. Should be interesting to watch. especially on radar.
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#862 Postby Alyono » Tue Aug 21, 2018 1:07 pm

looks like Oahu again for the EC
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#863 Postby OahuWahine » Tue Aug 21, 2018 1:09 pm

Alyono wrote:
OahuWahine wrote:
Alyono wrote:
either shutters or at least 3/4 inch thick plywood.

A question you will need to answer is how well is the home constructed?


The main home was built in the 70s but I live in an attached upgrade that was built in 2007. I have a leak in my roof that I have to go up and fix today. A little worried about that, too.


doesn't sound like your roof would survive hurricane force winds


That's what I'm afraid of. At this point just hoping Oahu doesn't take a direct hit.
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#864 Postby Alyono » Tue Aug 21, 2018 1:10 pm

OahuWahine wrote:
Alyono wrote:
OahuWahine wrote:
The main home was built in the 70s but I live in an attached upgrade that was built in 2007. I have a leak in my roof that I have to go up and fix today. A little worried about that, too.


doesn't sound like your roof would survive hurricane force winds


That's what I'm afraid of. At this point just hoping Oahu doesn't take a direct hit.


how close to the ocean are you?
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#865 Postby BYG Jacob » Tue Aug 21, 2018 1:10 pm

Alyono wrote:looks like Oahu again for the EC

Oh please no.
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#866 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Aug 21, 2018 1:12 pm

Alyono wrote:
OahuWahine wrote:
Alyono wrote:
either shutters or at least 3/4 inch thick plywood.

A question you will need to answer is how well is the home constructed?


The main home was built in the 70s but I live in an attached upgrade that was built in 2007. I have a leak in my roof that I have to go up and fix today. A little worried about that, too.


doesn't sound like your roof would survive hurricane force winds


I have two properties built around the same time. Do you think I should board the windows up? I feel like if the winds are strong enough to rip the roofs off, there's nothing I can do.
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#867 Postby Alyono » Tue Aug 21, 2018 1:14 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
Alyono wrote:
OahuWahine wrote:
The main home was built in the 70s but I live in an attached upgrade that was built in 2007. I have a leak in my roof that I have to go up and fix today. A little worried about that, too.


doesn't sound like your roof would survive hurricane force winds


I have two properties built around the same time. Do you think I should board the windows up? I feel like if the winds are strong enough to rip the roofs off, there's nothing I can do.


most roofs get ripped off due to the windows or doors (including garage door) failing
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#868 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Aug 21, 2018 1:14 pm

12z Euro bearing down on Oahu:

Image
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#869 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Aug 21, 2018 1:15 pm

Alyono wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
Alyono wrote:
doesn't sound like your roof would survive hurricane force winds


I have two properties built around the same time. Do you think I should board the windows up? I feel like if the winds are strong enough to rip the roofs off, there's nothing I can do.


most roofs get ripped off due to the windows or doors (including garage door) failing


Should I just throw some plywood on top and hope for the best?
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#870 Postby tolakram » Tue Aug 21, 2018 1:17 pm

Image
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#871 Postby Bocadude85 » Tue Aug 21, 2018 1:17 pm

Kingarabian wrote:12z Euro bearing down on Oahu:

Image


96 hour point is west of Kaui, not sure that the Euro has a landfall this run.
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#872 Postby Alyono » Tue Aug 21, 2018 1:17 pm

EC did make a west shift, turns at the last minute
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#873 Postby Alyono » Tue Aug 21, 2018 1:18 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
Alyono wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
I have two properties built around the same time. Do you think I should board the windows up? I feel like if the winds are strong enough to rip the roofs off, there's nothing I can do.


most roofs get ripped off due to the windows or doors (including garage door) failing


Should I just throw some plywood on top and hope for the best?


any chance to get dedicated storm shutters?
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#874 Postby NotoSans » Tue Aug 21, 2018 1:18 pm

Euro depicts significantly weakening as LANE approaches the Hawaiian islands. Looks like land interaction would be the major factor.
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#875 Postby boulderrr » Tue Aug 21, 2018 1:18 pm

12Z Euro shows Lane turning west in time for its center of circulation to remain south of the islands. It shows Lane weakening from 985mb at 72 hours (south of Oahu) to 1005 at 96 hours (southwest of Kauai).
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#876 Postby Alyono » Tue Aug 21, 2018 1:18 pm

JMA into Oahu/Maui in about 72 hours
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#877 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Aug 21, 2018 1:22 pm

boulderrr wrote:12Z Euro shows Lane turning west in time for its center of circulation to remain south of the islands. It shows Lane weakening from 985mb at 72 hours (south of Oahu) to 1005 at 96 hours (southwest of Kauai).


We can only hope that the turbulent flow and subsequent variation is the pressure field off of the big island can disrupt Lane in time as the models are showing or it will still be a strong hurricane. The shear will take far too long to weaken.
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#878 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 21, 2018 1:24 pm

@EricBlake12
Amazing to see a 155-mph #hurricane that close to #Hawaii- I can count on one hand how many hurricanes have been that strong there that we know of! #Lane
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#879 Postby Bocadude85 » Tue Aug 21, 2018 1:26 pm

12Z HMON has a landfall on Lanai.
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#880 Postby boulderrr » Tue Aug 21, 2018 1:27 pm

High-Res ECMWF shows this as Lane's closest pass:

Image
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