WPAC: RUMBIA - Post-Tropical

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WPAC: RUMBIA - Post-Tropical

#1 Postby mrbagyo » Sun Aug 12, 2018 6:17 am

98W INVEST 180812 1200 20.0N 131.5E WPAC 15 1001

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Last edited by mrbagyo on Wed Aug 15, 2018 9:32 am, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#2 Postby euro6208 » Mon Aug 13, 2018 6:07 am

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
22.0N 129.3E, APPROXIMATELY 265 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB,
OKINAWA, JAPAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 130142Z
METOP-A PARTIAL ASCAT IMAGE REVEALS THERE IS ELONGATED TURNING
SURROUNDING A WEAK CIRCULATION WITH FLARING CONVECTION DISPLACED TO
THE SOUTH DUE TO THE STRONG WESTERLY CONVERGENT FLOW. A 130104Z MHS
METOP-B 89GHZ IMAGE EMPHASIZES THE SYSTEM IS DISORGANIZED WITH
SCATTERED CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10 KTS)
AND A POINT SOURCE ALOFT WHICH IS PROVIDING GOOD DIFFLUENCE. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM AT 28-29C. CURRENTLY, GLOBAL MODELS
ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH INDICATING WEAK DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 997 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#3 Postby euro6208 » Mon Aug 13, 2018 5:06 pm

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 22.0N 129.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 128.6E, APPROXIMATELY
223 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 131258Z METOP-A ASCAT IMAGE REVEALS THERE IS
ELONGATED TURNING SURROUNDING A WEAK CIRCULATION WITH DISORGANIZED,
FLARING CONVECTION. A 131216Z MHS METOP-B 89GHZ IMAGE EMPHASIZES THE
SYSTEM IS DISORGANIZED WITH SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH.
THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT SHOWS LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10 KTS)
AND GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW; HOWEVER, A WEAK TUTT CELL HAS
DEVELOPED ABOVE THE LOW LEVEL TURNING, INHIBITING DEVELOPMENT. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM AT 28-29C. CURRENTLY, GLOBAL MODELS
ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE SYSTEM TRACKING NORTH, BUT VARY ON
INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10
TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 997
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#4 Postby euro6208 » Tue Aug 14, 2018 4:30 am

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 22.7N 128.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 127.9E, APPROXIMATELY
215 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ISHIGAKIJIMA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 140122Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A
BROAD AREA OF TURNING WITH POCKETS OF SHALLOW CONVECTION. A 140122Z
PARTIAL ASCAT PASS SHOWS A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH
PRIMARILY 5-10 KNOT WINDS NEAR THE CENTER AND 20 KNOT WINDS NEAR THE
PERIPHERY, ALTHOUGH THEY ARE NOT CURRENTLY WRAPPING IN. THE SHAPE OF
THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY RESEMBLING A WAVE THAT EXTENDS OVER 5
DEGREES LONGITUDE. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA
OF FAIR EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-31 CELSIUS).
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO THE
NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ONCE NEAR THE COAST OF CHINA
THE SYSTEM IS DEPICTED AS EITHER TRACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH
THE TAIWAN STRAIGHT OR MERGING WITH TS 19W. CONSOLIDATION IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS, INDICATING THAT IF THE SYSTEM
INTENSIFIES OR CONSOLIDATES IT WILL BE IN LATER TAUS NEAR THE COAST
OF EASTERN CHINA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#5 Postby euro6208 » Tue Aug 14, 2018 4:44 am

98W INVEST
As of 06:00 UTC Aug 14, 2018:

Location: 24.0°N 127.4°E
Maximum Winds: 15 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 998 mb

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#6 Postby 1900hurricane » Tue Aug 14, 2018 6:30 pm

Looks classifiable at this point.

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#7 Postby euro6208 » Tue Aug 14, 2018 6:56 pm

Image

WTPN21 PGTW 142200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 25.2N 127.6E TO 30.3N 126.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 141800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 25.7N 127.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 10
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 24.8N 127.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 127.5E, APPROXIMATELY
42 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
IMAGERY AND A RECENT 142115Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE DEPICT CURVED DEEP
CONVECTION BUILDING OVER THE CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. OBSERVATIONS ON OKINAWA REPORTED WINDS UPWARDS OF 20 KTS AND
PRESSURE AROUND 998 MB. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM IN
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, SOME
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10 KTS). SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORABLE AT 28-30C. GLOBAL MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT TRACKING THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH AND THEN WEST
WHILE DEVELOPING I. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
152200Z.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#8 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Aug 14, 2018 7:27 pm

14/2100 UTC 26.6N 127.7E T1.0/1.0 98W -- West Pacific
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Re: WPAC: TD 21W

#9 Postby mrbagyo » Tue Aug 14, 2018 9:01 pm

21W TWENTYONE 180815 0000 27.0N 127.6E WPAC 30 997
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Re: WPAC: TD 21W

#10 Postby mrbagyo » Tue Aug 14, 2018 9:12 pm

TD d

TD
Issued at 01:30 UTC, 15 August 2018
<Analysis at 00 UTC, 15 August>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N27°00' (27.0°)
E127°20' (127.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE Slow
Central pressure 998 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 15 m/s (30 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23 m/s (45 kt)
<Forecast for 00 UTC, 16 August>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N29°00' (29.0°)
E123°00' (123.0°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure 994 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)
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Re: WPAC: TD 21W

#11 Postby euro6208 » Tue Aug 14, 2018 10:04 pm

Image

Wow
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Re: WPAC: TD 21W

#12 Postby euro6208 » Tue Aug 14, 2018 11:00 pm

WDPN34 PGTW 150300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 21W (TWENTYONE)
WARNING NR 1//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 21W (TWENTYONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
32 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 13
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A BROADLY DEFINED AND PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER EMBEDDED WITHIN MONSOONAL FLOW, WITH STEADY
CONSOLIDATION OCCURRING OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. OBSERVATIONS FROM
MULTIPLE SITES ALONG THE RYUKU CHAIN, DIRECTLY UNDERNEATH THE
MONSOON CONVECTION, HAVE BEEN AS HIGH AS 25-32 KNOTS. VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR OVERHEAD IS LOW TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOTS), AND OUTFLOW IS
BECOMING MORE ESTABLISHED. 21W IS TRACKING ALONG A WESTWARD
EXTENSION OF A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE AT 28-29 DEGREES CELSIUS.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING AND SETS THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY.
B. TD 21W IS FORECAST TO TURN TO THE WEST OVER THE NEXT 12-24
HOURS AS A NEW STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH BECOMES ESTABLISHED.
AFTERWARD, THE SYSTEM CONTINUES ON A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK, MAKING
LANDFALL OVER EASTERN CHINA AFTER TAU 48. THE FORECAST INTENSITY IS
HELD STEADY FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS ADDITIONAL CONSOLIDATION OF THE
LLCC OCCURS, AFTER WHICH STEADY INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED. THE
SSTS DECREASE CLOSER TO THE COAST DUE TO UPWELLING IN THE WAKE OF
18W WHICH RECENTLY PASSED THROUGH THE AREA, WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE
INTENSIFICATION PRIOR TO LANDFALL. LIMITED AVAILABLE GUIDANCE IS IN
FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SOLUTION. HOWEVER, DUE TO LIMITED GUIDANCE
AVAILABLE FOR THE FIRST WARNING, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: TD 21W

#13 Postby NotoSans » Wed Aug 15, 2018 2:36 am

Upgraded to TS RUMBIA at 03Z. Surface observations suggested that intensity may be near 45 knots.
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Re: WPAC: TROPICAL STORM RUMBIA

#14 Postby Twisted-core » Wed Aug 15, 2018 4:40 am

Has some dry-air to the west,ec thinks its a big rain maker over coastal china.

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Re: WPAC: TROPICAL STORM RUMBIA

#15 Postby euro6208 » Wed Aug 15, 2018 5:11 am

Image

TD Rumbia.

WDPN34 PGTW 150900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 21W (RUMBIA)
WARNING NR 02//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 21W (RUMBIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 107 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED,
WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE, ON RECENT SATELLITE POSITION FIXES FROM PGTW
AND RJTD AND ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY FROM OKINAWA. THE INTENSITY OF
30 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM
T1.5 TO T2.0 AS WELL AS LOW-LEVEL STRUCTURE EVIDENT IN THE SATELLITE
AND RADAR DATA. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
DEPICTS A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH EXTENSIVE DEEP CONVECTION
ALONG THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES AND MORE LIMITED
CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. THE SYSTEM IS SITUATED IN AN AREA OF
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING, WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
EXTENSIVE EASTWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. TD 21W IS TRACKING
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE SITUATED TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. FORECAST WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXTENDED TO ENCOMPASS STRONGER
WINDS DEVELOPING FAR TO THE EAST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER, EVIDENT
IN SCATTEROMETER DATA AND NUMERICAL MODEL FORECASTS. HOWEVER, THE
OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS UNCHANGED.
B. TD 21W IS EXPECTED TO TURN WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS, AND MAKE LANDFALL NEAR SHANGHAI AROUND TAU 36, AS A RIDGE
BUILDING TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM ESTABLISHES ITSELF AS THE
PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE. INTENSIFICATION IS ANTICIPATED PRIOR TO
LANDFALL AS THE SYSTEM PASSES OVER WARM WATER AND BENEFITS FROM
FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND OUTFLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER, SLOW
CONSOLIDATION OF THE BROAD CIRCULATION AND LIMITED TIME OVER WATER
SHOULD LIMIT THE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION PRIOR TO LANDFALL.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: TROPICAL STORM RUMBIA

#16 Postby euro6208 » Wed Aug 15, 2018 5:12 am

TPPN15 PGTW 150911

A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 21W (RUMBIA)

B. 15/0850Z

C. 28.94N

D. 126.27E

E. THREE/HMWRI8

F. T2.0/2.0 STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 19A/PBO XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. .35 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDS 2.0 DT. MET 1.5. PT 2.0. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


DAVIS
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Re: WPAC: TROPICAL STORM RUMBIA

#17 Postby euro6208 » Wed Aug 15, 2018 5:23 am

TXPQ25 KNES 150943
TCSWNP

A. 21W (RUMBIA)

B. 15/0830Z

C. 28.9N

D. 126.4E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T2.0/2.0/D1.0/12HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR DATA. DT
OF 2.5 IS BASED ON 0.4 BROAD BANDING. MET IS 1.5 AND PT IS 2.0. FT IS
BASED ON CONSTRAINTS LIMITING THE CHANGE IN FT TO 0.5 OVER 06 HRS.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...RAMIREZ
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Re: WPAC: TROPICAL STORM RUMBIA

#18 Postby euro6208 » Wed Aug 15, 2018 7:05 am

Image
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Re: WPAC: TROPICAL STORM RUMBIA

#19 Postby euro6208 » Wed Aug 15, 2018 8:09 am

Now upgraded to TS Rumbia...

21W RUMBIA 180815 1200 29.1N 125.9E WPAC 35 991
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Re: WPAC: RUMBIA - Tropical Storm

#20 Postby euro6208 » Wed Aug 15, 2018 5:35 pm

WDPN34 PGTW 152100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 21W (RUMBIA)
WARNING NR 04//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 21W (RUMBIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 239 NM
NORTHWEST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED, WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE, ON THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IN
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY, AND IS CLOSE TO THE PGTW AND
RJTD FIXES. THE INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON A 151217Z ASCAT
PASS SHOWING 30 AND 35 KT WINDS DISPLACED 80 NM FROM THE CENTER IN
THE EASTERN SECTOR. THE INITIAL INTENSITY AGREES WITH THE PGTW
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KTS), IS SLIGHTLY
ABOVE THE RJTD ESTIMATE OF T2.0 (30 KTS), AND IS BELOW A 151315Z
SATCON ESTIMATE OF 39 KTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW JUST WEST OF THE SYSTEM, SUPPRESSING ALL BUT A SMALL FLARE
OF CENTRAL CONVECTION THAT PARTIALLY COVERS THE LLCC. HOWEVER,
RIDGING TO THE EAST IS FUELING EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND
DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING. 21W IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS) AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30
CELSIUS), WHICH ARE FAVORABLE FOR MARGINAL DEVELOPMENT. TS 21W IS
TRACKING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SITUATED TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE
PREVIOUS WARNING.
B. TS 21W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING IN TO THE
NORTH. 21W IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AROUND TAU 24 NEAR SHANGHAI.
SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION IS ANTICIPATED PRIOR TO LANDFALL AS THE
SYSTEM PASSES OVER WARM WATER AND BENEFITS FROM FAVORABLE LOW VWS
AND OUTFLOW ALOFT, REACHING A PEAK OF 40 KTS BY TAU 36. HOWEVER, THE
BROAD CIRCULATION AND SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEARBY UPPER-
LEVEL LOW WILL LIMIT SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION. AFTER MAKING
LANDFALL, TS 21W WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY AND DISSIPATE. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN
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Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/


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