ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

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ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

#1 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 12, 2018 8:32 am

AL, 98, 2018081112, , BEST, 0, 395N, 590W, 20, 1016, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1018, 100, 70, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS015, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 015,
AL, 98, 2018081118, , BEST, 0, 395N, 575W, 20, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS015, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 015,
AL, 98, 2018081200, , BEST, 0, 395N, 560W, 15, 1016, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS015, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 015,
AL, 98, 2018081206, , BEST, 0, 395N, 545W, 15, 1016, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1018, 100, 70, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS015, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 015,
AL, 98, 2018081212, , BEST, 0, 395N, 533W, 25, 1016, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1018, 100, 70, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 015, SPAWNINVEST, al772018 to al982018,
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ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#2 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 12, 2018 8:42 am

Only models runs here.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#3 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 12, 2018 9:06 am

Exposed circulation. Next.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#4 Postby NDG » Sun Aug 12, 2018 10:19 am

SHIPS show lots of northerly shear over 98L over the next few, the subtropical Atlantic is not that friendly this week.

Code: Select all

* ATLANTIC     2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST     *
                    * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE     *
                    *  INVEST      AL982018  08/12/18  12 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    25    27    31    34    37    40    42    40    35    30    26    21    20
V (KT) LAND       25    27    31    34    37    40    42    40    35    30    26    21    20
V (KT) LGEM       25    25    26    27    27    29    30    31    31    30    30    31    33
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)        21    25    32    32    30    36    35    33    28    20    24    22    17
SHEAR ADJ (KT)    -5    -5    -7    -9    -2    -5    -3    -2    -3    -2    -2    -2     0
SHEAR DIR        316   312   323   333   326   328   326   336   338   334   331   324   336
SST (C)         27.6  27.2  27.2  27.0  27.0  26.8  27.0  27.1  27.2  27.2  27.1  26.8  26.6
POT. INT. (KT)   131   127   127   124   123   119   121   122   123   122   124   122   121
ADJ. POT. INT.   106   104   104   102   101    96    96    98    98    96   101   103   102
200 MB T (C)   -57.1 -57.0 -56.8 -56.9 -57.1 -56.8 -56.8 -56.4 -56.2 -56.0 -56.1 -56.0 -56.3
200 MB VXT (C)  -0.5  -0.4   0.0   0.0  -0.2   0.0   0.0  -0.2  -0.2  -0.4   0.2  -0.2  -0.1
TH_E DEV (C)       4     4     4     4     5     7     7     7     7     8     8     9     9
700-500 MB RH     58    58    59    60    57    54    55    57    57    53    54    53    51
MODEL VTX (KT)     6     7     7     8     8     8     8     8     8     6     5     3     3
850 MB ENV VOR    -6    -3    -6    -3     4    10    11     2    -4   -30   -42   -39   -62
200 MB DIV        -1    -9    -7    -7    -4     2    -7    -8     3    10    23     3    25
700-850 TADV       2     2     0     1    -3    -1    -2    -2     0     1     7    15    17
LAND (KM)        800   817   869   958  1043  1179  1233  1200  1184  1190  1196  1190  1202
LAT (DEG N)     39.5  39.4  39.1  38.5  37.9  36.8  36.2  36.3  36.3  36.2  36.3  36.9  38.0
LONG(DEG W)     53.3  51.9  50.6  49.5  48.7  48.0  48.3  49.2  50.0  50.3  49.4  47.3  44.4
STM SPEED (KT)     9    11    10    10     8     4     3     4     3     2     7    11    13
HEAT CONTENT      16    16    10     8     4     3     2     3     4     4     3     4     3

  FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/  8      CX,CY:   8/  0
  T-12 MAX WIND:  15            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  749  (MEAN=619)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:  31.7 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  31.0 (MEAN=65.0)
  PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR):            0.0

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     1.   2.   3.   4.   6.   8.   9.  10.  11.  12.  12.  13.
  SST POTENTIAL          0.   0.   1.   1.   3.   5.   9.  12.  15.  17.  18.  18.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     2.   5.   7.   9.   9.   5.  -3. -11. -17. -23. -27. -30.
  VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ     0.   1.   2.   2.   3.   5.   6.   7.   7.   6.   5.   5.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  PERSISTENCE            0.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.   1.   2.   2.   4.   6.   7.   8.   8.   9.   9.  11.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  MODEL VTX TENDENCY     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -2.  -5.  -7. -10. -10.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -4.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -1.   0.   1.
  850-700 T ADVEC        0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -5.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.
  GOES PREDICTORS       -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -2.  -2.  -2.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  RI POTENTIAL           0.   0.   0.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -1.   0.   0.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE           2.   6.   9.  12.  15.  17.  15.  10.   5.   1.  -4.  -5.

                CURRENT MAX WIND (KT):   25. LAT, LON:   39.5    53.3

      ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982018 INVEST     08/12/18  12 UTC **
 (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
 
     Predictor                  Value   RI Predictor Range  Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT)      :    0.0    -49.5  to   38.5        0.56           1.8
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT)       :   28.2     30.1  to    2.3        0.07           0.1
 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2)       :   10.8      0.0  to  157.3        0.07           0.1
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP       :   31.7     36.6  to    2.8        0.14           0.2
 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP        :    0.6      2.9  to   -2.9        0.39           0.4
 MAXIMUM WIND (KT)           :   25.0     22.5  to  132.0        0.07           0.0
 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2)      :  141.4    893.2  to  -67.1        0.78           0.7
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)         :   77.0     28.4  to  141.4        0.43           0.1
 D200 (10**7s-1)             :   -5.6    -29.7  to  185.9        0.11           0.0
 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear :   66.9    100.0  to    0.0        0.33           0.0
 
 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold=   2% is   0.4 times climatological mean ( 5.0%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold=   5% is   0.4 times climatological mean (10.9%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold=   3% is   0.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%)
   
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  RI (kt / h)  | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48  |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
   SHIPS-RII:     1.9%    4.9%    3.4%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%
    Logistic:     0.8%    1.0%    0.5%    0.2%    0.1%    0.4%    0.3%    0.1%
    Bayesian:     0.2%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%
   Consensus:     1.0%    2.0%    1.3%    0.1%    0.0%    0.1%    0.1%    0.0%
       DTOPS:   999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982018 INVEST     08/12/18  12 UTC         ##
   ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4                          ##
   ## AHI=  0   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

                          CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX


** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982018 INVEST     08/12/2018  12 UTC **
TIME(HR)   0-12  12-24(0-24)  24-36(0-36)  36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%)     0      0(  0)       0(  0)       0(  0)     <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%)      0      0(  0)       0(  0)       0(  0)     <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)

** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
      TIME (HR)      0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS)  25    27    31    34    37    40    42    40    35    30    26    21    20
 18HR AGO           25    24    28    31    34    37    39    37    32    27    23    18    17
 12HR AGO           25    22    21    24    27    30    32    30    25    20    16   DIS   DIS
  6HR AGO           25    19    16    15    18    21    23    21    16   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS
      NOW                              CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
  IN  6HR                              INTENSITY IN  6HR < 83 KT
  IN 12HR                              INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#5 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 12, 2018 12:47 pm

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Aug 12 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A small, non-tropical, low pressure system located about 500 miles
south of Cape Race, Newfoundland, is producing disorganized showers
and thunderstorms to the south-southeast of its center of
circulation. This low could gradually acquire subtropical or
tropical characteristics through the middle of the week while it
meanders over the central subtropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#6 Postby plasticup » Sun Aug 12, 2018 4:07 pm

Remember last week when we had the least interesting ATL invest of all time? I think this one has it beat.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#7 Postby mitchell » Sun Aug 12, 2018 6:29 pm

i actually find it interesting when invests form up at 40 north, as Debby did last week. It obviously doesn't have as much potential to develop into a powerful or long-lasting system, but the buoy in that area (44137 which is actually north of it at 42 N.) is reading a water temp of 78.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#8 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 12, 2018 6:40 pm

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Aug 12 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A small, non-tropical, low pressure system located about 500 miles
south of Cape Race, Newfoundland, continues to produce disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Strong upper-level winds are expected
to limit significant development during the next few days while the
system moves south-southeastward at 10 to 15 mph over the central
sub-tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Brown
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#9 Postby galaxy401 » Sun Aug 12, 2018 6:46 pm

plasticup wrote:Remember last week when we had the least interesting ATL invest of all time? I think this one has it beat.


By least interesting of all time you mean a disturbance with no model support becoming subtropical then suddenly transitioning into a tropical storm? I think there are several invests in the past few years that are much more worthy of that title.
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I don't get hurricanes here but I do get their remnants.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#10 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 13, 2018 6:50 am

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Aug 13 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A non-tropical broad area of low pressure is located a little more
than 600 miles south-southeast of Cape Race, Newfoundland.
Conditions could become somewhat favorable for subtropical or
tropical development during the next 2 or 3 days, and if formation
occurs, the system should move toward the northeast over the
north Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Avila
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#11 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 13, 2018 12:46 pm

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Aug 13 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms are associated with a broad
non-tropical area of low pressure located a little more than 600
miles south-southeast of Cape Race, Newfoundland. Some development
could occur within this complex low pressure area while it moves
toward the northeast during the next 2 to 3 days before it reaches
the colder waters of the North Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Avila
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#12 Postby CyclonicFury » Mon Aug 13, 2018 6:22 pm

UP TO 20/30
808
ABNT20 KNHC 132310
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Aug 13 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad non-tropical area of low pressure located a little more
than 600 miles south-southeast of Cape Race, Newfoundland, continues
to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions are forecast to become a little more conducive for some
tropical or subtropical development by Wednesday. The system is
forecast to move northeastward over the colder waters of the North
Atlantic by late Thursday or Friday which should limit any
additional development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#13 Postby CyclonicFury » Tue Aug 14, 2018 12:19 am

UP TO 40/40
120
ABNT20 KNHC 140513
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Tue Aug 14 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A non-tropical low pressure system located about 700 miles south
of Cape Race, Newfoundland, is producing a large area of cloudiness
and disorganized thunderstorms mainly to the east of the center.
Environmental conditions are forecast to become a somewhat more
conducive for some subtropical or tropical development by Wednesday.
The system is forecast to move northeastward over the colder waters
of the North Atlantic by late Thursday or Friday, which should limit
any additional development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#14 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 14, 2018 7:48 am

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Aug 14 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A non-tropical complex area of low pressure located several hundred
miles south of Cape Race, Newfoundland, is producing cloudiness and
thunderstorms mainly to the east of the center. Although latest
satellite images indicate that the low has not improved in
organization, conditions could become a little more conducive for
subtropical rather than tropical development by Wednesday. The
system is forecast to move northeastward over the colder waters
of the North Atlantic by late Thursday or Friday, which should limit
any additional development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Avila
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#15 Postby CyclonicFury » Tue Aug 14, 2018 12:59 pm

179
ABNT20 KNHC 141725
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Tue Aug 14 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A non-tropical low appears to be forming to the east of the larger
complex low pressure system centered several hundred miles south of
Cape Race, Newfoundland. This new low could acquire some
subtropical characteristics by Wednesday. However, after that time
the low should be moving northeastward over colder waters and be
absorbed by a larger extratropical cyclone.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Avila
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#16 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 14, 2018 6:28 pm

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Tue Aug 14 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A large non-tropical area of low pressure located about 750 miles
south-southeast of Cape Race, Newfoundland, is producing showers and
thunderstorms over the eastern and southern portions of its
circulation as it interacts with a strong upper-level trough. While
satellite imagery indicates that the low currently lacks a well-
defined center, this system could acquire some additional
subtropical characteristics during the next day or so. Later this
week, the low is expected to move northeastward over colder waters
and merge with a frontal zone over the northern Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Brennan
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#17 Postby CyclonicFury » Tue Aug 14, 2018 9:51 pm

STWO 60/60%
933
ABNT20 KNHC 150241
TWOAT

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1040 PM EDT Tue Aug 14 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special outlook issued to update discussion of the area of low
pressure located well southeast of Cape Race, Newfoundland.

Updated: Satellite imagery indicates that shower and thunderstorm
activity associated with the area of low pressure located about 800
miles south-southeast of Cape Race, Newfoundland, has become better
organized during the past few hours. Satellite-derived wind data
also indicate that the surface circulation has become better defined
since earlier today. Conditions appear conducive for some additional
development during the next day or so, and a subtropical depression
or subtropical storm could form overnight or on Wednesday while the
low moves northward to northeastward. Later this week, the low is
expected to move northeastward over colder waters and merge with a
frontal zone over the northern Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brennan/Stewart
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#18 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Aug 14, 2018 10:07 pm

You wouldn't guess based on the activity in this thread but this has a good chance at becoming Ernesto based on latest trends.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#19 Postby CyclonicFury » Tue Aug 14, 2018 10:12 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:You wouldn't guess based on the activity in this thread but this has a good chance at becoming Ernesto based on latest trends.

I do think it has a good shot at being Ernesto. For some reason these subtropical systems don't draw nearly as much attention as a deep tropics system would. It's really weird that we could see yet another subtropical storm in the Atlantic, in August too (a month which is mostly deep tropics development).
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#20 Postby Ntxw » Tue Aug 14, 2018 10:17 pm

CyclonicFury wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:You wouldn't guess based on the activity in this thread but this has a good chance at becoming Ernesto based on latest trends.

I do think it has a good shot at being Ernesto. For some reason these subtropical systems don't draw nearly as much attention as a deep tropics system would. It's really weird that we could see yet another subtropical storm in the Atlantic, in August too (a month which is mostly deep tropics development).


I would not be surprised either if we got Ernesto out of it.

In general the Atlantic folks (not all but many) aren't really into the satellite watching of systems in the middle of nowhere unless it's going to effect someone's backyard. That's when you get the most activity. STS or even tropical converts that gets caught up in the westerlies and leaves off generally do not spark the general poster's interests. The weather nerds that likes to watch storms in the middle of nowhere are on the Pacific side generally :lol:
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