CPAC: MIRIAM - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

EP, 99, 2018082418, , BEST, 0, 112N, 1179W, 15, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS027, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 027,
EP, 99, 2018082500, , BEST, 0, 113N, 1185W, 15, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS027, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 027,
EP, 99, 2018082506, , BEST, 0, 115N, 1193W, 15, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS027, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 027,
EP, 99, 2018082512, , BEST, 0, 118N, 1200W, 15, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS027, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 027,
EP, 99, 2018082518, , BEST, 0, 121N, 1207W, 25, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 180, 40, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 027, SPAWNINVEST, ep712018 to ep992018, SPAWNINVEST, ep712018 to ep992018, SPAWNINVEST, ep712018 to ep992018, SPAWNINVEST, ep712018 to ep992018,

[Ntxw]

Looking good. Might be classifiable already.

[cycloneye]

Yes,looks very good. They for sure will go up on the percents in next TWO.

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP992018 08/25/18 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 30 35 41 49 56 63 69 73 74
V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 30 35 41 49 56 63 69 73 74
V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 26 27 29 30 32 35 38 41 43
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 12 11 8 9 10 7 9 7 12 8 8 5 7
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 3 1 1 1 -3 -3 0 0 1 2 -2
SHEAR DIR 31 30 7 358 4 21 359 6 355 17 15 353 3
SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.2 27.9 27.7 27.7 27.8 27.7 27.3 27.5 27.5
POT. INT. (KT) 147 147 147 148 147 144 142 142 143 142 137 138 137
200 MB T (C) -54.3 -53.9 -54.1 -54.4 -54.3 -54.0 -54.2 -54.1 -54.3 -54.1 -54.1 -53.8 -53.8
200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7
700-500 MB RH 73 75 75 74 72 73 70 71 69 71 70 73 74
MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 11 13 13 12
850 MB ENV VOR -38 -37 -38 -43 -42 -16 -14 -8 -1 15 20 15 11
200 MB DIV 43 38 31 19 11 26 6 7 -17 12 51 57 79
700-850 TADV -3 -1 0 0 1 4 1 0 -1 -3 -4 -5 -4
LAND (KM) 1651 1691 1745 1795 1865 2004 2161 2346 2312 2072 1863 1697 1564
LAT (DEG N) 12.1 12.4 12.5 12.7 12.8 13.3 13.6 13.5 13.3 13.0 12.6 12.3 12.5
LONG(DEG W) 120.7 121.6 122.6 123.6 124.7 127.0 129.2 131.6 134.1 136.6 138.9 140.8 142.1
STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 10 10 11 11 11 12 13 12 10 8 5
HEAT CONTENT 18 14 15 15 15 24 13 16 10 3 6 16 22

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3
T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 650 (MEAN=584)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.4 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 1.8

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 4. 10. 17. 24. 28. 31. 33. 33.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 4. 5.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -2.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -5. -5.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 10. 16. 24. 31. 38. 44. 48. 49.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.1 120.7

** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992018 INVEST 08/25/18 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.75 3.5
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 1.9
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.3 19.6 to 1.4 0.51 2.3
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.4 1.8 to 106.7 0.13 0.4
D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.32 1.3
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.40 1.3
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.2
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 55.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.83 -2.3
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.3
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.69 0.3

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 16.9% 9.3% 0.0% 0.0% 12.4% 14.7% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.7% 5.7% 1.9% 0.9% 0.2% 1.8% 2.0% 11.0%
Bayesian: 0.0% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Consensus: 0.3% 7.9% 3.8% 0.3% 0.1% 4.8% 5.6% 3.7%
DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992018 INVEST 08/25/18 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX

[Yellow Evan]

12z ECMWF recurves this out to sea near 142W. GFS doesn't do much with it.

[Shell Mound]

The 12Z EPS and operational ECMWF are rather aggressive with the future intensity of 99E. Given the relatively sharp pressure gradient (high environmental pressure), well-defined low-level circulation, and compact size, this system could intensify rapidly over the next two to three days. Currently, there is some northerly shear over the system, hence the partially exposed centre, but that is going to diminish shortly as anticyclonic flow develops, ahead of an approaching, digging trough. I think this is a good contender for another major hurricane, as moisture will be sufficient and vertical wind shear low.

[Kingarabian]

Looks like it's some mid level shear eating at it:


Deep layer shear looks favorable as long as it doesn't gain longitude too quickly:

[Kingarabian]

GFS a bit more aggressive with this, and brings it into the CPAC within 72 hours.



Pretty troughy in the northern pacific and shoots this up vertically like the Euro and EPS.

[cycloneye]

1. An area of low pressure located just over 1000 miles southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula appears to be
becoming a little better organized. Although satellite data
indicate that a well-defined surface circulation has not yet formed,
environmental conditions appear conducive for additional
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the
next few days while the system moves westward around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

[cycloneye]

EP, 99, 2018082600, , BEST, 0, 130N, 1226W, 30, 1009, DB

[cycloneye]

SHIP more bullish in this 00z run.

* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP992018 08/26/18 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 38 42 48 55 64 72 77 79 82 86
V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 38 42 48 55 64 72 77 79 82 86
V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 33 33 35 38 43 47 50 52 55 59
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 8 8 9 8 6 7 8 9 13 14 14 13 9
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 2 4 5 -1 -2 0 -1 1 3 -1 -4
SHEAR DIR 9 345 348 10 49 29 26 6 32 35 34 27 34
SST (C) 28.3 28.4 28.3 28.1 27.8 27.7 27.8 27.9 27.8 27.5 27.3 27.4 27.4
POT. INT. (KT) 147 149 148 146 143 142 143 144 142 138 135 137 138
200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.1 -54.3 -54.2 -53.7 -53.9 -53.7 -54.1 -53.4 -53.7 -53.1 -53.8 -53.2
200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6
700-500 MB RH 75 76 76 75 76 75 74 73 75 76 75 77 76
MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 10 11 11 11 12 14 15 16 16 17 19
850 MB ENV VOR -46 -42 -41 -29 -19 -8 -1 5 13 22 20 20 23
200 MB DIV 67 57 44 37 42 42 8 22 20 21 55 69 69
700-850 TADV -2 -1 -1 0 1 1 -1 -4 -4 -6 -5 -4 -2
LAND (KM) 1701 1761 1840 1917 1998 2181 2369 2346 2157 2036 1922 1793 1663
LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.1 13.2 13.4 13.6 13.7 13.4 12.7 12.0 11.3 11.3 12.1 13.7
LONG(DEG W) 122.6 123.6 124.8 126.0 127.2 129.6 131.8 134.0 136.2 137.8 139.0 139.9 140.4
STM SPEED (KT) 9 11 12 12 12 11 11 11 10 7 6 7 9
HEAT CONTENT 13 15 16 21 25 12 17 10 5 9 11 11 11

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 582 (MEAN=584)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.7 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 7.6

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 10. 15. 21. 25. 27. 29. 28.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 3.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 7. 10. 11. 11. 12. 14.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 18. 25. 34. 42. 47. 49. 52. 56.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.0 122.6

** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992018 INVEST 08/26/18 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.70 5.8
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.2
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.9 19.6 to 1.4 0.65 5.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.15 0.9
D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.44 3.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.54 3.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.22 1.2
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 60.0 721.6 to -82.5 0.82 -3.9
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.6
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.80 0.7

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.8%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 8.0% 20.7% 19.5% 13.2% 8.4% 16.3% 18.0% 10.4%
Logistic: 3.6% 21.3% 9.9% 5.4% 0.8% 8.6% 8.8% 17.5%
Bayesian: 0.2% 5.1% 1.1% 0.2% 0.1% 1.3% 1.0% 0.4%
Consensus: 3.9% 15.7% 10.1% 6.3% 3.1% 8.7% 9.3% 9.4%
DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992018 INVEST 08/26/18 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX

[Kingarabian]

At the rate it's going it looks like it'll be classifiable tomorrow.




1. A well-defined low pressure system located about 1100 miles
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula
continues to show signs of organization. Environmental conditions
are conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely
to form during the next day or so while the system moves westward
at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[Kingarabian]

Lot's of low level banding on this GMI pass.

[Kingarabian]

Euro make this a Cat.3/Cat.4.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

276
WTPZ45 KNHC 260842
TCDEP5

Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152018
200 AM PDT Sun Aug 26 2018

Various satellite data over the past several hours, including recent
ASCAT scatterometer surface-wind data, indicate that the
well-defined low pressure area located about 1000 nmi southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula has become much
better organized, and has developed into a tropical depression. A
small CDO-like feature has formed over the well-defined center
depicted in the ASCAT data, and a recent burst of cold cloud tops of
-80C have also developed just west of the center. The initial
intensity of 30 kt is based on 0458Z and 0558Z ASCAT wind data,
which indicated winds of 28-30 kt were located 35-40 nmi west and
southwest of the low-level center.

The initial motion estimate is 280/10 kt. The depression is expected
to remain south of a strong deep-layer subtropical ridge for the
next 96 hours, resulting in a general westward motion at a slightly
faster forward speed. By day 5, the cyclone is forecast to move into
a break in the ridge created by a broad mid-/upper-level trough that
is forecast to dig southward out of the northern Pacific between
140W-145W longitude. The forecast track lies essentially down the
middle of the guidance envelope, which is just north of the
consensus model TVCE and the GFS model, but south of the ECMWF and
UKMET models. The HRWF and HMON models were not being available for
the TVCE consensus on this cycle, so some significant adjustments to
the track in the next advisory may be required.

The cyclone has a radius of maximum winds (RMW) of 35-40 nmi based
on the recent ASCAT data. The combination of the modest RMW, low
vertical wind shear of less than 10 kt, a very moist mid-level
environment, and sea-surface temperatures above 28 deg C, favors
steady intensification and even the possibility of rapid
strengthening. Since this is the first forecast, however, the
intensity forecast is on the conservative side and calls for a
climatological increase of one T-number or 20 kt every 24 h for the
next 48 hours, which is above all of the intensity guidance except
for the Navy COAMPS (CTCI) model. By 96-120 hours, the intensity is
leveled off due to possible entrainment of drier air and an increase
in southwesterly vertical wind shear.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0900Z 13.3N 124.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 26/1800Z 13.5N 126.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 27/0600Z 13.7N 128.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 27/1800Z 13.9N 130.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 28/0600Z 14.1N 132.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 29/0600Z 14.3N 136.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 30/0600Z 14.9N 140.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 31/0600Z 17.4N 141.9W 90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[Kingarabian]

I knew it.

[Ntxw]

May be Miriam not too long from now. On way to the likely next major/cat 3-4

[Yellow Evan]

26/1200 UTC 13.2N 124.6W T2.0/2.0 15E -- East Pacific

[wxman57]

Not sure why Lane qualifies for TS status while Fifteen-e doesn't. Last to ASCAT passes over lane had max wind 30 kts. This one should recurve east of Hawaii. The one behind it, maybe not.

[cycloneye]

They will upgrade to TS Miriam.

EP, 15, 2018082612, , BEST, 0, 132N, 1247W, 35, 1005, TS